Mephistopheles

it would probably amount to the same thing as playing Murton there full-time. But why even trade for one? We're not going to get one better than Murton. Just play Murton 75% of the time and Floyd against tough side-arming righties who are usually tough on the RHBs. It would probably net us a .285 or so EqA -- which is good enough to turn us into a 90+ win team and gains 10 runs or so. We can then use the resources that would have been involved in a trade to acquire a CFer, SS, real C or pitching. We can't nickel and dime our way into a part time player that's better than the one we got.

This is a baseball discussion and I expect that everyone here will stick to baseball and not get this thread locked. I understand it will be hard for some of you, but it must be done. If you believe in the power of projection, the Cubs look like they're going to win approximately 87.5 games. Right now the Cubs have two anemic holes on their team. The pitching has been fine and will probably continue to be above average for the duration of the season. Much of the offense has been alright. Here's the cumulative EqA for each of our positions. C - .222 1B - .314 2B - .280 3B - .300 SS - .231 LF - .284 CF - .250 RF - .255 The biggest holes have obviously been CF, RF, SS and C. You didn't need something as complex as EqA to tell you that. Just watching the Cubs this year tells you that. While RF and CF have been anemic offensively, SS and C have been much worse and may add more bang for your buck to fix. Jim's already got his fix for behind the plate in Jason Kendall. While Jason Kendall has had a terrible season, it's very likely we'll improve on the .222 EqA from our catchers. How much? Who knows. The Cubs had a .271 from the position last year. Jason Kendall's PECOTA EqA projection was .254, pretty average for your catcher. IF we get .250 EqA from our catchers the rest of the season and the rest of the team plays as is our win projection goes from 87.5 to 88.2 (+8.0 R). I think our 1B and 3B production will continue.f DeRosa and Fontenot play 2B the rest of the season, I think a .275 EqA is doable. If DeRosa got all the PT, .280 may be. Nevertheless the .275 projection nets us a loss of about 2 runs (1.8) which decreases us to 88.1. Which I'll keep in this because I want to. Shortstop.....yuck. Theriot will probably get all the PT there the rest of the season and seemingly has settled upon being a .260 EqA guy. I'm not sure how sustainable it is, but if we take it as fact, it's worth an increases our wins to 88.9 while netting us 8.1 runs. Thank you Pittsburgh! The two most likely places for an upgrade are RF and CF. Be careful which you do. If the Cubs keep Jacque Jones, who has been hitting well the last month, and he plays to his capabilities (.270 EqA) in CF you have to assume that some of that would be offset by Angel Pagan getting some time. Pagan's not this good. We all know that, expecting a .265 EqA from our CFers the rest of the season seems fine. That's netting us 5.0 runs and we're up to 89.3. Now for LF, since we've already taken account of some of Soriano's PT in CF, and Soriano has been a PT rock in LF since switching back, it's safe to assume we should project his EqA for all of LF PT. That's netting us 3.6 runs and we're looking at 89.7 wins. Now for RF. I don't think we can project an upgrade as is. Cliff Floyd's out and has played well when he has played but not often. The rest of our RFers have been laughable at best. IF the Cubs brought up Murton and he played to his .281 EqA projection, it would be a huge upgrade, but that would make too much sense and does not seem all that likely to happen. Of course it isn't Murton's fault. Okay, hypothetically speaking again, if it did happen we're netting 9.1 runs and we'd be over 90 wins at 90.5. Right now, as is, I think we're looking at about 88 or 89 wins. All the way around the diamond it looks like we've performed below the expected level. Obviously, some guys always will perform below their expected level -- hello probability theory -- but keep in mind that these statistics are almost always against average competition and the Cubs play a below average schedule the remainder of the season. Now, what would I suggest doing? Troy Glaus at SS. Yes, it sounds poor, assuming that he's an average defensive 3B, we're only looking at a -11 run loss on defense at SS per 150 games. He's a bonafied .300 EqA hitter and if he takes over for Theriot, we're looking at + 14.6 runs on offense and - 4.8 runs on defense -- netting us about 9.7 runs and almost one win. It's an expensive win, but wins around 90 GREATLY increase your playoff expectancy. It'll certainly be worth it. In fact, it would be even better to keep Theriot at SS and flip Glaus out to RF. We'd actually gain team defense there (+8 runs per 150 games) and get a similar increase on offense. If this was done instead, we're looking at +3.5 runs on defense and 16.5 runs on offense, 20 runs total. Keep in mind this is over what we've gotten not a Murton PT. That would push us to 92.1 wins (and a .623 WPCT which prorates to a 101 win team!). With Murton at RF and Glaus at SS we're a 92.0 team, in case you were wondering. Other options? A lot of people have been harping for Adam Dunn, and rightfully so. If Dunn were acquired and in our lineup tomorrow he'd be netting us just 12.5 runs because he is the same hitter as Glaus and would be expected to be about 8 runs worse on defense for the rest of the season. Of course Dunn still leaves us at 91 or so wins and would be worthwhile and a more likely scenario. If I were GM I'd try to go after Glaus, but he has a NTC so it may never happen and shift him out to RF if he wants. It would make us an excellent team and give us 92 wins or so and gives us a 100 win team talent. If all of the other projections remain true and we don't do squat in RF, CF we're looking at a 89 win team give or take. Although projected, we're looking at a mid 90s team who underperformed for half a season. If we nab Dunn we're still looking at 90+ wins and a 99-100 win talent team. For those of you wanting Griffey, it would be the same as acquiring Glaus. So they're interchangeable. Griffey adds more value in offense, Glaus in defense. People can forget about KGjr's GG's. He's a joke in the OF and has been for some time. Ironically enough the BP PS odds report has the Cubs winning an average of 89.0 wins and the Crew at 90.8, although that's not Sheets-adjusted.

for one....it's terrible.

Ranks the prospects in our system 1-100. otherwise known as an (incorrect) ordered list of names.

its not hard to figure out. it's a list of names in an order.

5 runs and a 5.00 era aren't the same. 5 runs a game and 5.00 ra would be...for the most part.

5 tools...so stupid. He's missing the essential tool.

wpa is worthless.

shortstop...and now catcher *sigh*

I think it's coming pretty close to time you can remove the question mark from doable for 90 wins. I disagree. The Cubs will go into a lull that keeps them from reaching it. Right now they're riding a prolonged hot streak that is keeping their stripes from being seen. They have a weak ass schedule the rest of the year, I dont see that big of a dropoff coming. Are they going to play .800 ball the rest of the way? Probably not, but .600-.650 would'nt surprise me with who they have left to play. They've had a weak schedule all season long. They had a pretty tough schedule in May-June Texas and the White Sox were the only teams below .500 in June they played. Colorado was right at .500 when they played them just because certain teams were at 500 at the time it doesnt mean they were good. it wasnt as easy as the rest of the season but it wasnt hard either. projecting the cubs to play 600 ball out is stupid.

I think it's coming pretty close to time you can remove the question mark from doable for 90 wins. I disagree. The Cubs will go into a lull that keeps them from reaching it. Right now they're riding a prolonged hot streak that is keeping their stripes from being seen. They have a weak ass schedule the rest of the year, I dont see that big of a dropoff coming. Are they going to play .800 ball the rest of the way? Probably not, but .600-.650 would'nt surprise me with who they have left to play. They've had a weak schedule all season long.

I think it's coming pretty close to time you can remove the question mark from doable for 90 wins. I disagree. The Cubs will go into a lull that keeps them from reaching it. Right now they're riding a prolonged hot streak that is keeping their stripes from being seen.

I love you.

man duke's trash, but whatever. you get trash for trash. at least the trash we may get is only 24 and has a chance to become another mans treasure

dont use elo.

mgl created uzr and works for the cardinals

every now and then. usually for the GRB/NSBB fantasy league. im actually very very nice and informative on aim. im not a [expletive]. you can hit me up if you want, but a PM first is req'd to get it.

Haha, poor cardinals. I would almost feel bad for them if this wasn't just so hilarious. Walt Jocketty mortgaged the future to win the World Series. I wish Hendry would do the same. The trouble comes when you mortgage the future and miss the championship. No he didn't. He mortgaged the future because he's not that great of a GM.

I thought it was shoulder surgery (maybe labrum). yes, torn labrum.

YOU ARE ALL DUMB! Okay seriously im sorry i missed this

he doesn't need to explain anything. he's right.

no problem. SEE I CAN BE A SWEETIE

Was it really worth jumping all over me last night if you were going to admit that in the end? I went with who I thought would help his team more in the 2nd half, it happened to be Lee, and I'm not alone in this. You went with Fielder, which is fine. You're definitely not alone in that either. I don't think either team will lose out either way. But we could've saved ourselves a lot of hassle had we just admitted that yesterday. yes because prior production has very little to do with future production when you're looking at it wrong. We disagree that I'm looking at it wrong. You seem to think that Lee is over the hill, and incapable of having a better second half than he had first. Historically his worst months of the season are the first two. Those are behind him now. I expect his numbers to improve. Fielder is young and on the rise, so you're not crazy to think he's going to keep this pace up. But we'll disagree on Lee forever, so I'll leave it at that and go eat dinner. you are looking at it wrong. you're think his babip is sustainable. it isnt

I disagree with this part. The average line for an NL first baseman is .276/.358/.457/.815, and the median OPS is about .813. I think Lee can beat that even if he has lost power, and when you factor in the fact that he defends and runs better than most 1B, he'll at least be average, and maybe a bit above. We're talking about: .294/.379/.441 from a 1B in Wrigley IF HIS BABIP IS .350. If his BABIP is his career BABIP then we're at .273/.361/.414. It would depend on how far his BABIP falls, with the max being average (.350)

Was it really worth jumping all over me last night if you were going to admit that in the end? I went with who I thought would help his team more in the 2nd half, it happened to be Lee, and I'm not alone in this. You went with Fielder, which is fine. You're definitely not alone in that either. I don't think either team will lose out either way. But we could've saved ourselves a lot of hassle had we just admitted that yesterday. yes because prior production has very little to do with future production when you're looking at it wrong.