Mephistopheles

do you want to be put in time out again? you just said you are sorry for derailing this thread and then you continue to do it with the very next post. anyways to add to this actual trade. It's an upgrade but bench upgrades are worthless for catchers. they just dont play enough to make a difference. we're talking about less than half a run or so

rich do you want to be banned?

you didnt get a call from a source. this has been known for a couple of hours now.

we do have that and it's at 57 percent. Ahh yes, that stat. What exactly is the formula for it? its not a formula. it's essentially using a program that simulates the rest of the season millions of times.

they'd probably value him alot more if he could get some playing time. which in turn would raise his value up with us, thus defeating set train of thought :P not really. all four of these teams respect the minor league translations.

we do have that and it's at 57 percent.

I really think we should look to Boston, Cleveland, Oakland or Toronto and trade one of them Matt Murton. They'd probably be the four teams to value his talents the most.

That's the problem. They may just be "marginal" upgrades but when you're around 89-90 runs each win brings your chances of making the playoffs up so much. All wins aren't created equally. Wins between 88 and 92 are the most valuable in baseball, economically and on the field wise. are you saying a win in april isn't as important as a win in september? No. I'm saying this: http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/Pennants_Added_2.gif where we are at it looks like each win makes the probability we play in october go up 10%.

That's the problem. They may just be "marginal" upgrades but when you're around 89-90 runs each win brings your chances of making the playoffs up so much. All wins aren't created equally. Wins between 88 and 92 are the most valuable in baseball, economically and on the field wise.

Does it matter if the production is from power or getting on base? Production is production. If we're not going to play Murton, trade him to a team that would value his services (im looking at you Billy Beane). Trade Murton+ for a guy like Swish. I understand that production is production. I'm not opposed to Murton being recalled; in fact I was opposed to his demotion. That being said, if we could get Sosa for say Ryan Harvey or Brian Dopirak....I really don't think he'd be a bad risk. yeah but he doesnt exactly give us a big payout. id rather go fishing on dope or harvey than know what im not getting with sosa

Does it matter if the production is from power or getting on base? Production is production. If we're not going to play Murton, trade him to a team that would value his services (im looking at you Billy Beane). Trade Murton+ for a guy like Swish. Why would Beane deal Swisher for Murton? He wouldnt, which is why I said Murton+

Does it matter if the production is from power or getting on base? Production is production. If we're not going to play Murton, trade him to a team that would value his services (im looking at you Billy Beane). Trade Murton+ for a guy like Swish.

It's not just a limited role. It's a limited role, plus going back to where he had so many years and was made out to be a scapegoat when he left. Why would he want to come back here? He loves the city. Sosa is a romantic and wants to win a championship in a city in which he was loved. He wants the adoration of the bleacher bums as he once again sprints out to Wrigley. He wants a ring which has alluded him and he won't get in Texas. There's lots of reasons he might want to come back. Just as he were made the scapegoat, Baker could be made the scapegoat in his departure. Stop arguing that he would might come back. We all (save one Reds fan) know it could happen. I just dont think its all that good of an idea.

Yeah, Vazquez played a year, then got traded. Soriano played a year, then refused to re-sign. Neither team sniffed the playoffs. That worked well. Both of those trades happend in the offseason too, not in the middle of a pennant race where somebody could come in and cost a team a playoff run. And seriously, you and Vance need to stop acting like mods. You're not. I doubt Sosa's arrival is going to cost this team anything. However, we're woeful against LHP. Despite all the flaws currently in Sosa's game, hitting against LHP isn't one of them. It's not likely to happen because of Jim. Sosa, however, doesn't have a say...and I believe he wouldn't mind the trade at all, especially as his PT in Texas begins to diminish. No, it's just defense and all around offense that disqualifies Sosa from ever being a consideration for being on a playoff team. I'm digging that .738 OPS. It looks like something we could nab from the AAA scrapheap. Key there was LHP Big whoop. Matt Murton vs. LHP in AAA: .328/.404/.563/.967 (128 AB) So Murton did worse in AAA against lefties than Sosa did against lefties in the majors? How exactly is this helping your arguments credibility. If you want to make an argument against Vance because you hate him. Shut up and listen to me because I will type up your argument. You can just copy and paste for all I care. Vancey Asmodai is the dumbest person ever. Why are you even bothering listening to his antics? The point he's not telling you and you're not acknowledging is that historically there really isn't much of a platoon split for RHBs vs LHPs. All the ones who hit significantly worse against the RHPs are weeded out before they reach the majors. Sosa's 1000 OPS has only come in a handful of appearances and really won't mean all that much. If he's our starter against lefties and spells some time in RF, we're talking about a 800 OPS using your numbers and he plays half the time. That's not anything better than playing Murton against both and he's already on our team. Sosas 1000 LHP OPS is just too risky and probably is more of an anomaly more than anything. See don't listen to that idiotic loser nerd Asmodai. There ya go RichHillIsABeast. If you spent your time actually formulating an argument instead of insulting me you might have came up with this yourself. ----- ahhh you made a numbers error. thats understandable disregard the part about that..

Yeah, Vazquez played a year, then got traded. Soriano played a year, then refused to re-sign. Neither team sniffed the playoffs. That worked well. . The thing is, these guys were traded to teams they didn't want to play for -- but they had to play or it would cost them a lot of money. As you don't know, Vazquez used a clause every player has to demand a trade. He forced his way out because he didn't want to go there. Sosa can't do that. If Sosa came out and said, "I won't play for the Cubs" then the deal wouldn't happen. Sosa is making the league minimum on a one year deal. It wouldn't cost him alot of money, and he would still be a free agent at the end of the year. he could do that, but would he? not likely. thats all he can do.

Yeah, Vazquez played a year, then got traded. Soriano played a year, then refused to re-sign. Neither team sniffed the playoffs. That worked well. . The thing is, these guys were traded to teams they didn't want to play for -- but they had to play or it would cost them a lot of money. As you don't know, Vazquez used a clause every player has to demand a trade. He forced his way out because he didn't want to go there. Sosa can't do that.

I'm sure there's a sentence somewhere in there, but I can't find it. There ya go. However, Sosa has no control. No NTC. The Rangers could trade him to the Devil Rays if they wanted to. Have you ever seen somebody traded to a place where he truly did not want to play? Soriano to the Nationals, spring 2006. Soriano didn't want to play left, he didn't mind going to the Nationals. Okay, Javier Vazquez.

I'm sure there's a sentence somewhere in there, but I can't find it. There ya go. However, Sosa has no control. No NTC. The Rangers could trade him to the Devil Rays if they wanted to. Have you ever seen somebody traded to a place where he truly did not want to play? Yes. Javier Vazquez. Alfonso Soriano

I'm sure there's a sentence somewhere in there, but I can't find it. There ya go. However, Sosa has no control. No NTC. The Rangers could trade him to the Devil Rays if they wanted to.

How can you say Dunn is 8 runs worse defensivley then Glaus when you have Glaus playing out of position (SS or RF) with the Cubs? Makes no sense. Because RF isn't a very hard position to play. The way these weights are decided use real data of players making the transition too and from positions, so it accounts for it. How can you account for a guy switching positions that he has never played before? Where does this comes from? looking how over and under average guys were before and after at different positions. Hypothetically if a guy is +4 at one position, and -5 the second position. Then a second guy is -5 at the first and -12 at the other, then we can estimate that the difference in average between the two is about 8 or so. So you can look at what Joe Blow did at a position and decide what Troy Glaus will do there? Doesn't work that way. No it's not exact but since it uses everything it's a gives you a very good idea of what the person can do at the position. It's pretty practical and better than randomly saying X runs. It's the best thing we've got. If you've got a better solution tell me it.

How can you say Dunn is 8 runs worse defensivley then Glaus when you have Glaus playing out of position (SS or RF) with the Cubs? Makes no sense. Because RF isn't a very hard position to play. The way these weights are decided use real data of players making the transition too and from positions, so it accounts for it. How can you account for a guy switching positions that he has never played before? Where does this comes from? looking how over and under average guys were before and after at different positions. Hypothetically if a guy is +4 at one position, and -5 the second position. Then a second guy is -5 at the first and -12 at the other, then we can estimate that the difference in average between the two is about 8 or so.

Colorado won't trade him. They're only 5.5 out of 1st. I don't think he's available. I think Dunn and especially Glaus would be cheaper to acquire. First, my math was correct all the way up to saying what Glaus would do, Glaus in RF would make us at 91.5, Murton would make us 90.5. Helton would be our best move, a +26.6 run net and +2.5 wins to 92.1. Sorry about the false hope earlier...about .5 a win of it.

How can you say Dunn is 8 runs worse defensivley then Glaus when you have Glaus playing out of position (SS or RF) with the Cubs? Makes no sense. Because RF isn't a very hard position to play. The way these weights are decided use real data of players making the transition too and from positions, so it accounts for it. I'm probably as big of a Murton fan as you'll find on this site, but he was just abysmal in RF when Lou put him out there this year. There's really no trade off between RF and LF. That said there may be an initial adjustment phase. Ha, perhaps Murton is even dyslexic. He didn't play there all that much when he did. He wasn't hitting worth crap. He wasn't playing there often. And, have you been watching Floyd out there this season? My legs hurt watching him run in the outfield.

Sosa is an outs machine. An out machine who hasn't made an out in over 40% of his PAs against lefties.

How can you say Dunn is 8 runs worse defensivley then Glaus when you have Glaus playing out of position (SS or RF) with the Cubs? Makes no sense. Because RF isn't a very hard position to play. The way these weights are decided use real data of players making the transition too and from positions, so it accounts for it.