Mephistopheles
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Everything posted by Mephistopheles
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No I think I am. You're faulting Jim for being right or "lucky" when the odd, and you said he should have been wrong. How do you know Jim didn't look into the matter more thoroughly then just randomly deciding "yes lets throw money at this guy". nope youre not understanding it. -
(a) everyone in baseball was on steroids, and corked bats don't help hitters. (b) Sosa was two years younger than DeRosa, and probably had more mileage on his body since he was an everyday player. a. wrong, and i know b. more mileage? come on.... the fact sosa stood in rf for a few more innings and took a thousand or two more swings than derosa over the course of ten years is meaningless
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thanks for putting in cubspeak you do know that sosa's career line before 98 was .246 AVG/.325 OBP, and well you know how that improved. sosa found the magic juice, corked bats and wasnt on the wrong side of 30. its a bad comparison and youre still not grasping what the hell probabilities are. of course its a bad comparison because sammy being on the juice, but you failed to bring that to the discussion beforehand, so i was merely responding accordingly. and corked bats? like that improved his game. what in the world are you talking about? i usually can follow most [expletive] train of thoughts but this [expletive] thought is about as random as any.
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youre still not getting it. either that or you just want to play the blind faith fan part in your high school play
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thanks for putting in cubspeak you do know that sosa's career line before 98 was .246 AVG/.325 OBP, and well you know how that improved. sosa found the magic juice, corked bats and wasnt on the wrong side of 30. its a bad comparison and youre still not grasping what the hell probabilities are.
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the more i read your posts the more i wonder why i post at nsbb. zing but in all seriousness ive been thinking of changing the quote
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do you not know how volatile era is?
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How Do You Feel About Larry Rothschild Now?
Mephistopheles replied to Outshined_One's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
ive always thought he was one of the better pcs in the league -
Obviously not, or he would be performing this year. probabilistic outcomes. actual outcomes. 20/20 hindsight Yep. That simple.
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you do know sosa hit 40 HR as a 27 year old, right? you do know he hit 33 as a 24 year old, right?
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ah, you're one of those people who clings to the "it was the right move at the time" even though you've been proven completely wrong by the actual performance on the field. Yeah, $7.5M for Ray Durham would be looking real good right now. youre a weatherman. you know probabilities. then again, being a weatherman i dont expect you to get them right! (IM KIDDING)
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Obviously not, or he would be performing this year. probabilistic outcomes.
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durham was a better bet. again all it shows is an idiot can get lucky
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no it just proves an idiot can get lucky
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You're really being asinine here. Show me a stat that shows that he isn't forcing ground balls "like he used to". Fine, you don't want to use G/F, but he is on pace to to force 336 ground ball outs this year. His career in that stat 2004 - 356 2005 - 350 2006 - 288 how about groundball percentage? 55.5 in 2004 52.3 in 2005 49 this year he's not getting ground balls like he used to. <3 Kopitar
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You're really being asinine here. Show me a stat that shows that he isn't forcing ground balls "like he used to". Fine, you don't want to use G/F, but he is on pace to to force 336 ground ball outs this year. His career in that stat 2004 - 356 2005 - 350 2006 - 288 lol counting stats
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just because he started tapping his toe you should toss out the rest of his career like jumbo dumbo did
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so you ignore last year, his first year as a full time starter, because it was a "career year", but when he duplicates those numbers, it doesnt mean anything because hendry bought high? derosa was signed to a 3/13, compare that to the 2/14.5 deal of durham, and the 1/3.25, and I really don't think he overpaid. hendry cant see the future. there was little reason to think that DeRosa would continue his hitting. Durham would have been expected to add more bang for your buck.
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and why are we using g/f -- actually thats go/fo? because i find that statistic to be useless. hes not getting groundballs like he used to. he's getting a few more than last year but rothschild didnt fix anything.
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There wasn't much reason to expect DeRosa to significantly outperform Ryan Theriot or even Ronny Cedeno. Before last season he posted OBP consecutively of .316, .293, and .325. It was a buy high move. The smarter move would have been to look at Giles or Durham. Granted, DeRosa has outplayed both of them....but it doesn't mean it was the right move at the time. The money could have been spent better elsewhere. Just like Sorianos. All of the moves (with the exception of Marquis) helped the Cubs -- even DeRosa. It's just he didn't do it efficiently.
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I'd buy him. As a person who has watched every single start of his since he was a rookie, I can assure you his stuff has not diminished.
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Actually the Ted Lilly signing was by far his best signing and was known to be the best at the time, IMO. Given the price of pitching he didn't overpay once you factor in he's a guy who has always had good K rates and always played in the offense happy AL East. Soriano wasn't very good. Marquis was terrible. DeRosa was useless and overkill. Floyd was overkill. Ward was alright.
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okay his GB rates still arent at their 04-05 rates. So you're either lying and/or are misinformed.
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OPS+? Honestly I wouldn't expect anything better from you.
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its nothing major. if it was of any importance wed already know what it was
