Mephistopheles

Colon really hasn't been dependent on his four seam since his Indian days. Since then he's relied on what's become a quality sinking two seamer. I don't think reduced velocity is going to affect him as much now as it would five years ago. That said I would not advocate entertaining the idea of signing him. The guy who actually interests me is Kyle Lohse. He bombed out in Minnesota the last year there, but he's put up quite the quality run in Cincinnati and Philadelphia given the park effects. His career ERA in the NL is 4.55 while playing half of his games in two of the toughest park on pitchers in the leagues (although he performed well at both spots). I don't see any reason he couldn't post an ERA under 4.50 for the Cubbies next season if they wanted him. I'd take him in our rotation over Jon Lieber, Sean Marshall, Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis. There's a very good chance his ERA is around 4.25 if he's a Cub. Lohse apparently wants a five year deal (won't happen), but if he would sign for a 3 year deal at a little higher rate than Marquis' (say 3 yrs 27 mil), why not grab him if we dump Marquis in a trade for Roberts.

Im not going to suggest being a Cubs fan to anyone. You're better off converting to the Yankees, Cardinals or Red Sox.

you misunderstood. Im saying 500 HRs may not be enough for Ramirez. I think hell need to be close to 600.

Why do you think that? His stats look pretty damn good to me. Throw into it that he played for the Red Sox and was on two of their WS teams.... for a CO with bad defense hes going to need more than 500 HRs. I think he should get in, I just dont think he does. Another name I'll throw out there is Jim Edmonds. He probably will not get in, but he's probably the second best CF of his generation ahead of Lofton and Williams -- unless I am completely forgetting someone

I assume that's not your complete list. Thats the list I made while looking at the first post in the thread.

I considered him obviously. But then I looked at it, and only three times in his career did he play 1st base over 100 games in a season. Doesn't matter. He's going to get in.

Ichiro? No chance. He's only played here for 7 years. No chance? I think Ichiro is a lock if he retires tomorrow. He needs to play three more years to qualify. I had no idea. You have to play ten years? Yep. Although I believe the HoF can make exceptions for players whose careers are tragically cut short. For example, if Pujols were to die tomorrow (and no, I'm not wishing that on anybody), he'd probably get in based on how insanely good his numbers have been his first seven years. The HOF has and does make exceptions. Ichiro's lack of 10 years would be little different than all Negro League players having less than 10 years.

Ichiro? No chance. He's only played here for 7 years. No chance? I think Ichiro is a lock if he retires tomorrow. Why? He has 1600 hits. That's about half of what it typically takes to get in. He'll probably get in if he plays long enough, but I don't see any possible way he'd get elected if he retired tomorrow. Voters know he spent 9 seasons in Japan and won't hold that against him

Ichiro? No chance. He's only played here for 7 years. They can make an exception to the rule. If his legs were ripped off tomorrow he'd be a hall of famer, I assure you.

Yeah, I remember there being an entire section about how Biggio was more valuable than Griffey Jr. He had Biggio at number 35 overall.

Curt Schilling Derek Jeter Craig Biggio (although hes gone now) Mariano Rivera Jeff Kent Mike Mussina Frank Thomas (easily) I don't think Manny Ramirez gets in.

and it also assumes that soriano's hamstring isnt an issue and neither is ramirez and his body.

Luckily what you see does not count.

Remind me who won last year? I seem to be forgetting who it was.

Why is that hard to believe? They were 6th in the based on record last season, and 2 teams were within 2 games of them. Some teams have improved, while some Cubs fans believe that the rotation really overachieved last season and is bound to regress. They were also 2 games from having the 3rd best record, pythag-wise. We can debate progression/regression for every team until the end of time, but the Cubs were relatively easily among the Top 8 teams last year, and they've improved the roster. It's irrationally pessimistic to have them as low as 8th. With the Cubs, irrational pessimism becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is very true. Its routed in cognitive research

10 runs =/= 1 win.

To support my young padawan I should also note that Pedro Martinez did not start a game on normal rest last season. Each start he had at least an extra day. The Mets should consider themselves lucky if he pitches 25 games next season.

actually to those most they don't have a brain so it is a no brainer. steals are worthless. get them out of your head.

i hope baseball has more fans than it did in 1950. i mean the population of the United States has like doubled in that timeframe.

Per rotoworld. I pray this ends speculation regarding him. there is no speculation regarding. everyone knows we're not getting. it's just what we want.

its okay wrigley23 just does not understand the magnitude of the ryan theriot disease.

Can you imagine the comedy of Bonds trying to roam that outfield at Petco? jesus christ. just because a park is a pitchers park it does not mean it has a large outfield. petco's left field is smaller than sbc's.

anyways predicted runs off pecota Chicago Cubs 803.1 Milwaukee Brewers 793.2 New York Mets 786.9 that is all ive done so far

Oh believe me when I say I know the uses for WARP and the problems with WARP. For what I was doing now, it's perfectly acceptable. You know, I did not put a label on each axis of the graph, thinking that this place would be smart enough to infer what they meant given the numbers on the graph and the comments about the graph. I guess I can't expect people to be able to do that. Let's see the x axis on the graph is a players rank in that year, with the Y axis being the WARP accumulated. So I did that....and BP's still more impressive. You're right. Players with a WARP of 25 or higher right now in 2003's BA's list (7). Players with WARP of 25 or higher on BP's list (9). BP listed Travis Hafner and Dontrelle Willis. BA didn't. Players with WARP of 25 or higher right now in the 04 BA list 3, compared to 4 on BPs. BP has Jason Bay listed, BA does not. Since that's a year later, let's look at WARP of 20 or higher. Oh look 8 for BP and 6 for BA. BP has Khalil Greene listed, BA does not. So the four guys that BP had on their lists that BA did not are Jason Bay, Dontrelle Willis, Travis Hafner and Khalil Greene. That's 4 All Star appearances, 2 Rookie of the Year winners, a Cy Young runner up, a top five MVP finish, a 22 game winner and 2 35 HR hitters. Oh it's also 3 seasons of WARP over 11.0, 5 over 8.0 and a World Series ring to boot. Yeah BA sure was better at finding stars. Please stop making things up.

people think that it's denominated in wins (it is but it's not). It's fairly good framework on hitters. it is embarrassingly dumb for pitchers