Jon

The 30,000+ at Wrigley head home wet. The game was suspended due to rain with the score tied 6-6 with 2 on, 2 out in the bottom of the 9th. It will be resumed tomorrow at 6.

3/31 to 5/1 - 121 PAs, .353/.455/.500, .102 IsoD, .147 IsoP 5/2 to 5/26 - 93 PAs, .218/.326/.295, .108 IsoD, .077 IsoP 5/27 to 6/27 - 111 PAs, .315/.423/.500, .108 IsoD, .185 IsoP 6/28 to 7/19 - 69 PAs, .161/.235/.226, .074 IsoD, .065 IsoP 7/20 to 7/29 - 36 PAs, .333/.444/.500, .111 IsoD, .167 IsoP Two things really jump out. The first is that if he stays hot for another week or two, a chart of his OPS would make a very nice "W" shape. The second, though, is that his IsoD has been remarkably consistent if you take away those 69 PAs from his most recent slump. That surprised me, as it wasn't my perception. The strikeouts certainly shot up during his last slump. He struck out 22 times, or 32% of his trips to the plate. That was more than double his 15.4% K rate of the season leading up to that slump. Note that these charts don't include tonight's performance. http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3263_OF_daily_full_4_20080728.png During that last slump, he was also hitting more balls in the air, which I'm sure everyone noticed, as well: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3263_OF_daily_full_9_20080728.png Then there's what to make of his BABIP: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3263_OF_daily_full_7_20080728.png He was a bit fortunate early on and then a little unlucky at some point after that, probably. But the one to really watch is still his LD%. He needs to get that back up.

I'd love for Piniella to read this article sometime. I know late June was so long ago, so he could use the refresher. 118 pitches for no reason after throwing 125 last time out. And he had at least one guy in the bullpen who needed to get work in.

It was back down again tonight: http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/release.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2008/month_07/day_29/gid_2008_07_29_chnmlb_milmlb_1//pbp/pitchers/407296.xml&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=1

Siegfried gave up 5 earned and the lead in the 6th at Wrigley. He didn't record an out.

Ridling and Guyer went back-to-back in the 2nd. 3-1 now in the 3rd.

Gissendaner and Lee Buchanan of the early '90s would probably be the closest in recent history behind Bates.

I was looking through some old articles and came across this one on HardballTimes.com. There are sample size issues and it's dependent upon the Pitchf/x system to correctly identify pitchers who threw at least 500 of the specific pitch. With that said, it shows that in 2007, Rich Hill not only had the 13th most effective curveball, but also the 17th most effective fastball. Pretty interesting. Also, you'll see Chad Gaudin's name at #9 on the slider list and at #8 on the change-up list.

http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u310/nucubs/zfontenotpregame2.gif

Lee looked like he was running with weights tied to his legs. He didn't look good running at all. Oh geez...

Overall: .273/.351/.497 3/31 to 5/5 - 125 PAs, .352/.448/.667, .096 IsoD, .315 IsoP 5/6 to 5/19 - 48 PAs, .225/.354/.475, .129 IsoD, .250 IsoP 5/20 to 6/26 - 123 PAs, .225/.285/.360, .060 IsoD, .135 IsoP 6/27 to 7/8 - 47 PAs, .366/.426/.732, .060 IsoD, .366 IsoP 7/9 to 7/27 - 53 PAs, .176/.208/.275, .032 IsoD, .099 IsoP From FanGraphs.com: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3707_C_daily_full_9_20080727.png http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3707_C_daily_full_7_20080727.png http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3707_C_daily_full_3_20080727.png http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/3707_C_daily_full_4_20080727.png Some observations: -His GB% and FB% are not terribly different from where they were when he was doing well. In fact, it appears as though the decline in his power coincided with hitting more flyballs -His BABIP follows his LD% pretty closely -The strikeouts aren't a huge concern right now I'd actually say that the biggest thing for him is that declining walk rate. However, that's not something that worries me too much with Soto. He has a good history of taking bases on balls and I don't see that changing. Thoughts?

I know I posted it somewhere else, but actually, the Marlins would have had the best scouting report on him out of the other teams in the majors. Samardzija faced Florida's AAA affiliate in 3 of his 6 starts at Iowa, including his last 2 starts before being called up. While the Marlins' hitters have never seen him before and a scouting report on a starter at the minors who is going to pitch limited innings out of the bullpen in an upcoming series isn't going to be emphasized very strongly, they should still have received plenty of information on him from their scouts and AAA coaching staff.

The amount of success he had with his changeup on the inner portion of the plate or off the inside corner last year is pretty surprising. That was a good way to kill 5 minutes at work.

The best way for Samardzija to continue to develop as a pitcher is by getting innings in as a starter. I think it would be a mistake for him to start anywhere other than the Iowa rotation next season. I wonder if part of the reason that the Cubs called him up when they did is that they wanted to limit his innings before he works with the big league club in September. If he had started the rest of July and August, he likely would have exceeded his IP total from last season before September rolled around. The problem is that they did this just as he was starting to have success. Counting on effectiveness out of the bullpen for two months with the big league club was a bit of a risk when the payoff would probably have been a clearer sense of Samardzija's ability and ceiling by doubling his start total at Iowa, not to mention much needed work on his secondary pitches and learning how and when to use them.

Nice fastball movement with some decent "rise" http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/break.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2008/month_07/day_27/gid_2008_07_27_flomlb_chnmlb_1//pbp/pitchers/502188.xml&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=1 That's for all pitches, but 19 of the 25 pitches he threw were fastballs. All fastballs registered between 93.5 and 96.0. Most between 94 and 96. EDIT: Here's a better chart http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/horzspeed.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2008/month_07/day_27/gid_2008_07_27_flomlb_chnmlb_1//pbp/pitchers/502188.xml&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=1

He hasn't been throwing that effective splitter for long. It's the reason he's striking guys out now. Nice catch!

And there's the much talked about splitter for the K. I like.

Only if it's Rufus T. Firefly.

Very good, I hope. It would definitely be a break in pattern for Piniella. I wish I had Soto's helmet hair all the time.

What are the odds that Piniella lets Samardzija pitch the 9th?

It's nice to see him doing relatively well. His numbers aren't that great, but he's at least moving up the ladder and limiting his walks.

Moments before Milwaukee blew their lead. Nice timing.

Well that didn't take that long.

yea I found it through this link in The Hardball Times Live. It's an interview with Josh Kalk who has written a couple of articles for THT using Pitchf/x. It has successfully kept me from doing work this morning, which is always a good thing on a Friday. That's a pretty cool interview. Post any others like that in the future if you come across them. Here's one snippet relevant for everyone:

Namely because he would have been safe if he ran through the bag instead of getting his arms jammed in the dirt and being out by sliding in head first.