Jon

Overall I must say I have a hard time watching college baseball. I think it's the insane amount of small ball.

Have you seen Pierre's numbers this season? They're simply amazing: .271/.299/.318/.617 That's an IsoD of .028 and an IsoP of .047...that costs $7.5 million.

Remember that 4 months of Clemens is costing the Yankees about $26 million after luxury taxes, not just $19 million.

Irvine just got screwed royally on a call that was overturned on the second batter of the inning. WS ended up with a 2-run bases loaded 2-out single to tie the game.

I wonder if they're done reorganizing their efforts. I know the Cubs have said that it's just too hard to compete financially with Asia anymore because of the scouting efforts of some organizations, but I have a hard time believing they won't be doing a little more in the near future (and not just on the professional level).

That's due to regress, but I've seen more outrageous BABIP and for longer (BP Upton). I'm not sure "regress" is the right word, though. Crash might be more accurate. Even last year his BABIP was .302. Soriano has never been a high BA guy. In fact, his BA last year was .277. His career high in 2002 was an even .300. Once his BABIP starts to drop, hopefully he'll become a little more patient. His IsoD is .027 lower than it was last year, which will need some improvement over the full season, and his IsoP .041 lower. The challenge for him will be to see if he can continue to put up good numbers when some of those balls start not to drop for hits. Personally, I'm just hoping for a few good seasons out of Soriano. I don't think there's any way he lives up to his contract in any of the 8 seasons (when looking at the contract divided evenly across the seasons instead of the way it's backloaded right now), so I can only keep my fingers crossed that something good happens very soon with this team. Even with the possibilities of market inflation down the road, it doesn't look pretty. The way he's hitting this year, he should have a higher BA he has put up historically. His LD% is 22.1% this year, which translates roughly to a BABIP of .340. Over the last three years he's put up LD% of 18.7%, 19.0%, and 19.6%. While his BABIP is due to regress, it shouldn't drop to just .300 if he keeps on hitting like he has. He also had equally high (or higher) LD%s in '02 and '03 while with the Yankees, but his BABIP was never close to what it is now. He may very well be a different hitter now, but I don't see how he's going to be able to sustain it. Also right now, he seems to have a very strange GB/FB thing going on along with his LD% http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/847_OF_season_full_9_20070609.png Maybe he's becoming a different hitter than he has at any other point in his career, but I don't think that's likely.

Statistics tell you what happened, especially splits like these when you only have two seasons of non-leadoff numbers to look at, but not always why they happened. There are lots of factors that could explain why he didn't hit well in Texas, not just whether or not he was hitting in the middle of the order. For those who do think that the numbers really show that he is (not has been, but is) a better hitter in the leadoff spot, would you go so far as to say that he would've hit better in Texas if he was hitting leadoff exclusively? If yes, why? And if no, then I think you'd agree that his career splits don't prove that he will perform better in one spot in the order than another, only that he has.

You get a different sense of things if you look at the none on/men on splits year by year. Over his last five seasons: 2002 Overall - .300/.332/.547/.879 None on (464 ABs) - .287/.322/.550/.872 Men on (232 ABs) - .328/.353/.543/.896 2003 Overall - .290/.338/.525/.863 None on (439 ABs) - .305/.348/.569/.917 Men on (243 ABs) - .263/.320/.444/.764 2004 Overall - .280/.324/.484/.808 None on (358 ABs) - .265/.308/.480/.788 Men on (250 ABs) - .300/.345/.488/.833 2005 Overall - .268/.309/.512/.821 None on (349 ABs) - .292/.340/.547/.887 Men on (288 ABs) - .240/.273/.469/.742 2006 Overall - .277/.351/.560/.911 None on (435 ABs) - .278/.326/.556/.882 Men on (212 ABs) - .274/.396/.566/.962 His career splits with nobody on vs. with men on are really skewed by two seasons (2003 when he had a good year and 2005 when he had a mediocre year). Of those five seasons, though, he actually had a higher OPS with men on base compared to nobody on in three of the five seasons. And that includes his career year, when he had a significantly higher OPS with men on base than he did when he came up with the bases empty (mainly because of a huge increase in walks). I really don't think there's any real statistical foundation to the belief that he's just a better hitter batting leadoff than hitting in the middle of the order. The idea that he can only do well batting leadoff just took off earlier, yet I have yet to see anything that makes me believe there is anything actually behind it. I don't see how breaking it down by year changes the fact that his OPS over his career is significantly higher with nobody on base. Solo homers offend my sensibilities too but that doesn't mean I have to ignore reality. The bottom line is that if they keep winning, he's probably gonna stay there, and I bet we can all agree that would be just fine. Those numbers show that his career splits do a pretty poor job of telling the whole story. While he may have better stats overall throughout his career with the bases empty than with men on base, if you look at the last five seasons, he was actually better with men on in three of those seasons than with the bases empty. Yet because his splits in the other two seasons were more pronounced, his overall numbers show him hitting better with the bases empty. What breaking them down by seasons shows, though, is that you cannot assume that he hit better with the bases empty throughout his career. Across his career, yes, but not throughout. Not when he actually hit better with men on base more often than he did with the bases empty over the last five seasons. As a hypothetical, let's say his OPS was .200 points higher with the bases empty in one season but in the other four seasons, his OPS was .020 higher with men on. While his overall splits would show him hitting better with the bases empty, would that accurately reflect how he hits in those situations? I'd be more likely to look at the other four seasons where his numbers were right around his overall line for each of those seasons and see that as what we should expect. The fact he actually hit better with men on during his career season probably carries a little bit more weight with me, as well. So yes, it may be a fact that he hit better with the bases empty over his career thus far, but it's also a fact that he hit better with runners on base more often (at least on the scale of a full season) than he did with the bases empty over the last five seasons. The statistical support for the idea that he has to hit leadoff just isn't there.

Colvin hit his 5th HR of the season in the 1st.

Woo Fontenot.

It really is sad that Fontenot looks more like the batboy than the batboy does.

The last I heard, there's a chance Mapp's shoulder injury could cause him to miss the entire Gold Cup. 2-0 the Final. Another pretty boring second half from the US. They play El Salvador at 6 PM central on Tuesday night. Damn, i missed minute 30-70. Didn't see him get hurt. Wow, I didn't even know he played today.... I missed the starting 11 and zoned out on the commentary since I had to watch on Telefutura and don't speak a word of Spanish. I must've just not recognized him since I didn't think he'd be playing for another week or so. I'm not sure who I thought had the assist on the first goal...

The last I heard, there's a chance Mapp's shoulder injury could cause him to miss the entire Gold Cup. 2-0 the Final. Another pretty boring second half from the US. They play El Salvador at 6 PM central on Tuesday night.

Hey, Eddie actually ran that time. Donovan seemed to be about twice as fast as anyone else out there on that run. Nicely done.

Wow. Great job standing around, Johnson. Just remember next time that you can't get an easy goal off a save by staring at it from 15 yards away. That far-side assistant ref is a joke, by the way. 1-0 at the half.

This is just getting sad. They could easily be up 3-0 right now. FINALLY. Yeesh. Yet the phantom offsides strikes again, taking away what should have been another sure goal.

Make that three and we're not even ten minutes in. And now they have one taken away on a bad offsides call.

Man. Two fantastic chances right out of the gate for the US, but they couldn't finish on either.

To quote Mr. Burns, "where's the heart?" It may be powering this room right now, but there's no personal touch.

I'm going to the finals, assuming the US makes it. Watching Guatemala and El Salvador just isn't doing much for me.

You get a different sense of things if you look at the none on/men on splits year by year. Over his last five seasons: 2002 Overall - .300/.332/.547/.879 None on (464 ABs) - .287/.322/.550/.872 Men on (232 ABs) - .328/.353/.543/.896 2003 Overall - .290/.338/.525/.863 None on (439 ABs) - .305/.348/.569/.917 Men on (243 ABs) - .263/.320/.444/.764 2004 Overall - .280/.324/.484/.808 None on (358 ABs) - .265/.308/.480/.788 Men on (250 ABs) - .300/.345/.488/.833 2005 Overall - .268/.309/.512/.821 None on (349 ABs) - .292/.340/.547/.887 Men on (288 ABs) - .240/.273/.469/.742 2006 Overall - .277/.351/.560/.911 None on (435 ABs) - .278/.326/.556/.882 Men on (212 ABs) - .274/.396/.566/.962 His career splits with nobody on vs. with men on are really skewed by two seasons (2003 when he had a good year and 2005 when he had a mediocre year). Of those five seasons, though, he actually had a higher OPS with men on base compared to nobody on in three of the five seasons. And that includes his career year, when he had a significantly higher OPS with men on base than he did when he came up with the bases empty (mainly because of a huge increase in walks). I really don't think there's any real statistical foundation to the belief that he's just a better hitter batting leadoff than hitting in the middle of the order. The idea that he can only do well batting leadoff just took off earlier, yet I have yet to see anything that makes me believe there is anything actually behind it.

That's due to regress, but I've seen more outrageous BABIP and for longer (BP Upton). I'm not sure "regress" is the right word, though. Crash might be more accurate. Even last year his BABIP was .302. Soriano has never been a high BA guy. In fact, his BA last year was .277. His career high in 2002 was an even .300. Once his BABIP starts to drop, hopefully he'll become a little more patient. His IsoD is .027 lower than it was last year, which will need some improvement over the full season, and his IsoP .041 lower. The challenge for him will be to see if he can continue to put up good numbers when some of those balls start not to drop for hits. Personally, I'm just hoping for a few good seasons out of Soriano. I don't think there's any way he lives up to his contract in any of the 8 seasons (when looking at the contract divided evenly across the seasons instead of the way it's backloaded right now), so I can only keep my fingers crossed that something good happens very soon with this team. Even with the possibilities of market inflation down the road, it doesn't look pretty.

Some more stats: 2002 Overall - .300/.332/.547/.879 Leading off an inning (264 ABs)- .277/.318/.500/.818 2003 Overall - .290/.338/.525/.863 Leading off an inning (256 ABs) - .340/.379/.680/1.059 2004 Overall - .280/.324/.484/.808 Leading off an inning (134 ABs) - .231/.264/.425/.689 2005 Overall - .268/.309/.512/.821 Leading off an inning (161 ABs) - .360/.401/.689/1.090 2006 Overall - .277/.351/.560/.911 Leading off an inning (256 ABs) - .297/.343/.555/.898 Again, you really can't draw that much from these numbers, and not just because of the limited sample size. In his three good seasons, his OPS leading off compared to his overall numbers were -.061, +.196, and -.013. In his two average (or however you want to define them), they were -.119 and +.269. Kind of all over the place there.

Good thing he's leading off. Wouldn't want to waste any of those HRs by having guys on in front of him. By putting Izturis and the P right in front of him, we've virtually guaranteed that 90% of the HRs he hits will be solo shots. Well done, Cubs. Well done. Better solo HR than no HR at all. And better 2- or 3-run HR than solo. Missing the point. Soriano is significantly better in that spot in the order. Why, I don't know, but there's enough of a sample for it not to be a fluke. You take him out of that spot and the solo HR turn into flyouts(intentional oversimplification). The sample might be there, but I'm certainly not convinced it isn't just a coincidence. I'm too lazy to find his 2001 (he wasn't very good, anyways) splits, but here's what he's done: 2002 (NYY) Overall - .300/.332/.547/.879 Batting #1 (679/696 ABs) - .296/.329/.542/.871 2003 (NYY) Overall - .290/.338/.525/.863 Batting #1 (627/682 ABs) - .293/.342/.533/.875 Batting #3 (43/682 ABs) - .233/.244/.465/.709 2004 (TEX) Overall - .280/.324/.484/.808 Batting #1 (67/608 ABs) - .269/.310/.597/.907 Batting #3 (485/608 ABs) - .280/.328/.476/.804 Batting #5 (47/608 ABs) - .277/.300/.404/.704 2005 (TEX) Overall - .268/.309/.512/.821 Batting #1 (98/637 ABs) - .276/.301/.480/.781 Batting #4 (37/637 ABs) - .216/.250/.432/.682 Batting #5 (497/637 ABs) - .270/.315/.523/.838 2006 (WAS) Overall - .277/.351/.560/.911 Batting #1 (541/647 ABs) - .294/.368/.588/.956 Batting #3 (72/647 ABs) - .153/.235/.333/.568 Batting #5 (29/647 ABs) - .310/.375/.690/1.065 Soriano hit leadoff exclusively in 2002 and 2003. When he moved to Texas, he really didn't see much time at the top of the order. After his move to Washington, he was back to primarily hitting leadoff. He's never had more than two consecutive good seasons. And you can't look within any single season because he always primarily hit in one position and as a result, the sample size is just too small. It's not like he had 300 ABs hitting leadoff and 300 ABs in the 5th spot each and every season to really provide a decent sample. I think it's much easier and safer to come to the conclusion that he just wasn't a great hitter when he was in Texas.

Yeesh. I was on the board so briefly yesterday that I forgot to even check yesterday's thread. Fontenot continues to impress, even before he's set to hop on a plane and head to Atlanta. He's 1-2 with an RBI double so far tonight and has his OPS back up to .944 despite the June slump.