srbin84

What? Every pitcher that was in the Top 5 in PAP 2003 hasn't been the same since. Livan pitched better than his career numbers, the other two got worse but Redman wasn't that good anyway. That's not really convincing. I'm not saying abuse has no effect at all. Typically, the pitcher has a bad next year or gets hurt the next year and recovers. Show me a decent number of examples from the last 10 years where the pitcher got abused in one season and followed it up by a dramatic decline in quality and quantity of starts for a number of years or the rest of his career. Wood's just been run into the ground for over a decade, so I can write that off as a unique situation. I still haven't seen anything comparable to Prior that offers a definitive explanation for what has happened to him. Man your significant other must have a horrendous time debating anything with you. You consistently make up all the rules and all the exceptions to how arguments and debates should go. Must be nice. Everytime someeone refutes a statement you make with statistical evidence you come back with some non-falsifiable statement to continue your argument. I just don't understand why only the Cubs have to deal with two of their star pitchers providing an average season between them for three years in a row. I'd love to just say it's all Dusty's fault, but it just doesn't happen to other teams. If it did, I would accept it. There's definitely some bad luck involved or something. Or on the other hand, no other team has Dusty as a manager?? The very paragraph you wrote is all the evidence you need. Dusty leads the world in pitcher abuse points. I'm not going to discount that it could be mostly his fault because in the case of Prior, I don't have an answer yet so anything is possible. This team is in such a horrible position. We really shouldn't be devoting so much time to following them. Baker is a bad manager. We have a lot of bad players. Our GM never admits to making a mistake and correcting it so problmes 1 and 2 seems like they are here to stay because our P and VP gave him an extension already. Those guys aren't going anywhere because the team is making money and that makes the corporate part happy. Add to that all of our important players are dropping like flies, be they position or pitcher, due to overwork, accident, the unexplained or all of the above.........it's just a total mess.

I think the town would have fun with the two Z's. Plus, Zito and Zambrano don't usually miss starts, and if Prior is good to go that is the best 1-2-3 in baseball. Not to mention the contrast thing....some think it helps, some don't. Hard throwing righty Slower, breaking ball lefty Hard throwing righty Slower, breaking ball lefty Hard throwing righty

What? Every pitcher that was in the Top 5 in PAP 2003 hasn't been the same since. Livan pitched better than his career numbers, the other two got worse but Redman wasn't that good anyway. That's not really convincing. I'm not saying abuse has no effect at all. Typically, the pitcher has a bad next year or gets hurt the next year and recovers. Show me a decent number of examples from the last 10 years where the pitcher got abused in one season and followed it up by a dramatic decline in quality and quantity of starts for a number of years or the rest of his career. Wood's just been run into the ground for over a decade, so I can write that off as a unique situation. I still haven't seen anything comparable to Prior that offers a definitive explanation for what has happened to him. Man your significant other must have a horrendous time debating anything with you. You consistently make up all the rules and all the exceptions to how arguments and debates should go. Must be nice. Everytime someeone refutes a statement you make with statistical evidence you come back with some non-falsifiable statement to continue your argument. I just don't understand why only the Cubs have to deal with two of their star pitchers providing an average season between them for three years in a row. I'd love to just say it's all Dusty's fault, but it just doesn't happen to other teams. If it did, I would accept it. There's definitely some bad luck involved or something.

If we don't trade Prior, my ideal rotation be: Big Z Little Z Prior Marshall Marmol/Guzman Wood and Miller both signed to 1 year deals for a combined 3 million or less.

Not Wood. Please do not include Wood in the plans for next year. And this is not just directed at you srbin, but everybody, that includes you, Jim Hendry. I'm not necessarily saying to not resign Wood, just don't include him in the plans for next year. We've depended on his health for far too long and it's time to stop. He should be done with the Cubs, but that another thread altogether. I agree, but every time I look at that free agent starting pitcher list, I can't come up with many ideas on how to fill our rotation. I'd love to see at least one guy (Marmol, Guzman) earn a spot for next year so we only have to sign one guy (Zito, Schmidt) since there are only two premium pitchers available.

On paper, I don't mind a rotation of Z, Schmidt, Prior, Marshall, Wood??? I'm just worried we end up right where we are now again before the allstar break, maybe even as soon as April 1. We need to bring in at least one guy who is as close to a lock for 34 or more starts as their is before we do anything else with the rotation. I don't have a problem with getting Zito and Schmidt, but if it's just one, I want Zito. At least you'll be able to pencil in two full quality seasons from the two Z's. It would make things a lot easier.

What? Every pitcher that was in the Top 5 in PAP 2003 hasn't been the same since. Livan pitched better than his career numbers, the other two got worse but Redman wasn't that good anyway. That's not really convincing. I'm not saying abuse has no effect at all. Typically, the pitcher has a bad next year or gets hurt the next year and recovers. Show me a decent number of examples from the last 10 years where the pitcher got abused in one season and followed it up by a dramatic decline in quality and quantity of starts for a number of years or the rest of his career. Wood's just been run into the ground for over a decade, so I can write that off as a unique situation. I still haven't seen anything comparable to Prior that offers a definitive explanation for what has happened to him.

I also remember Prior pulling himself in the 2nd or 3rd inning in 2004. I can't remember what game, but Rusch came in from the pen and shut the other team down for the rest of the game. After that game, they did an MRI or something, and the doctor said it was the healthiest x-ray he had ever seen from a major league pitcher. You never know what's going on with this guy.

Whether he has perfect mechanics or not is irrelevant to the point. When a pitcher tires, he compensates by altering his mechanics and that's when the injury risk magnifies. If he said he wasn't tired and could keep going in all of those games and did it without showing any effects time after time, I can't see how that is their fault. Prior's never had a problem taking himself out of the game when he thinks something doesn't feel right, so I doubt he would just lie every time.

Maybe they figured a guy who has perfect, effortless mechanics could go an extra 10 pitches. Hindsight is 20-20 and no matter who was at fault for him getting hurt, if anybody, it's ancient history and time for him to move on from it. The only other good pitcher I can remember breaking down in his 20's is Ankiel. History does not at all suggest they should still be struggling to recover from 2003 the way they have.

Whoa whoa whoa...it's only happened over the last three years, and you have previously told me that three years isn't enough to trend.... :D At like .4, not 1!

I'll blame Dusty for some things, but I don't know if I can go as far and say he and/or Rothschild hurt Prior. Starting in 2003, when Dusty took over here are Prior's Innings pitched and pitchers per game. 2003: 211 113 2004: 119 98 2005 167 104 Those number aren't that crazy. If Prior can't throw 100 pitchers per game without getting hurt it isn't going to matter who is managing the club. Wood's numbers look like this 2003: 211 110 2004: 140 101 2005: 66 88 My point is I don't think it is ALL Dusty/Rothschild's fault. These two guys seem to be extremely brittle. Wood has more of an injury history than Prior so he is a little easier to figure out. Not sure what the deal is with Prior, sure he threw 200+ innings in 2003, but most elite pitchers will throw 200+ innings in a year. Average number of pitches per start doesn't tell the whole story, I'm afraid. It has a lot to do with how many pitches they're being run out there for in certain starts. Just look at the PAP data. In 2003, Prior made 30 starts. Of those 30, 20 were 110 pitches or more. Of those 20, 9 of them were more than 122 pitches. Wood made 32 starts and also had 20 starts over 110 pitches, 8 of those over 122, and 1 of them over 133. Livan Hernandez, widely regarded as the most abused pitcher in baseball because of his "rubber arm," made 17 CAT3+ starts in 2003 (and finished 3rd in PAP - 1-5 was Vazquez, Wood, Livan, Prior, Redman, with Zambrano sitting at 11th). Average pitch counts can be helpful, but to say Dusty and Rothschild aren't highly responsible for Wood and Prior's troubles is ignoring the truth. How come Vazquez, Livan, and Redman have all pitched a lot since then? They aren't injured. But their managers abused them, how can that be?

I'll blame Dusty for some things, but I don't know if I can go as far and say he and/or Rothschild hurt Prior. Starting in 2003, when Dusty took over here are Prior's Innings pitched and pitchers per game. 2003: 211 113 2004: 119 98 2005 167 104 Those number aren't that crazy. If Prior can't throw 100 pitchers per game without getting hurt it isn't going to matter who is managing the club. Wood's numbers look like this 2003: 211 110 2004: 140 101 2005: 66 88 My point is I don't think it is ALL Dusty/Rothschild's fault. These two guys seem to be extremely brittle. Wood has more of an injury history than Prior so he is a little easier to figure out. Not sure what the deal is with Prior, sure he threw 200+ innings in 2003, but most elite pitchers will throw 200+ innings in a year. Average number of pitches per start doesn't tell the whole story, I'm afraid. It has a lot to do with how many pitches they're being run out there for in certain starts. Just look at the PAP data. In 2003, Prior made 30 starts. Of those 30, 20 were 110 pitches or more. Of those 20, 9 of them were more than 122 pitches. Wood made 32 starts and also had 20 starts over 110 pitches, 8 of those over 122, and 1 of them over 133. Livan Hernandez, widely regarded as the most abused pitcher in baseball because of his "rubber arm," made 17 CAT3+ starts in 2003 (and finished 3rd in PAP - 1-5 was Vazquez, Wood, Livan, Prior, Redman, with Zambrano sitting at 11th). Average pitch counts can be helpful, but to say Dusty and Rothschild aren't highly responsible for Wood and Prior's troubles is ignoring the truth. How come Vazquez, Livan, and Redman have all pitched a lot since then?

It's also harder to find pitchers who are as good as Schmidt. He's better than Zito. Zito makes a bunch of starts, that's great. It still doesn't mean that he's immune to injury. Schmidt has had very little in the way of injury problems. Yes, he's been ridden hard, but considering how long he's been worked in this fashion, it's not illogical to think he can handle it. Schmidt will likely have less of a market than Zito, is a better pitcher, and isn't a significant injury risk. Zito is a big name pitcher based on what he did before the Cubs even hired Baker. He's been good but not great since, and he won't be worth the contract he signs. As I asked before, how is Schmidt a better pitcher? You have stated this a couple times and haven't backed it up yet. Schmidt gives up fewer baserunners, strikes out more people, walks fewer people(which means K/BB is better also), gives up fewer home runs, gives up fewer hits, and gives up fewer extra base hits(which means OPS against is better also). I didn't think it needed elaboration. Why has his ERA been increasing by the point each year then?

Schmidt's missed like 5 starts in 5 years. Sorry, but Zito averages around 5 more starts than Schmidt. I was obviously exaggerating(hence the use of "like" and the fact that I spelled out Schmidt's starts the previous post), but there's still nothing showing that Schmidt is an injury risk. He's been among the leaders in pitcher abuse almost every season and he's getting old. Aren't you the same person that said Livan wasn't injury prone even though he's been overworked, yet Schmidt will be even though he hasn't been hurt either? Schmidt is older, has been injured even though not often and relies on velocity. If Schmidt loses something on his fastball halfway through the contract, he could far worse. Zito relies on the curveball and has a rubber arm.

Schmidt's missed like 5 starts in 5 years. Sorry, but Zito averages around 5 more starts than Schmidt. I was obviously exaggerating(hence the use of "like" and the fact that I spelled out Schmidt's starts the previous post), but there's still nothing showing that Schmidt is an injury risk. He's been among the leaders in pitcher abuse almost every season and he's getting old.

Schmidt's missed like 5 starts in 5 years. Sorry, but Zito averages around 5 more starts than Schmidt.

I can't believe after Wood and Prior, people are still fawning for the injury risk. Zito NEVER misses a start and would surely benefit from a move to the NL. Let's say Schmidt only misses 5 starts a year. You still have to see Rusch or Hill go 0-5 10+ ERA, so no, I don't want anybody who is at any kind of added injury risk.

If he can go 60 pitches, let's make him a two inning setup man.

Does anyone have some park adjusted type stats for Soriano? RFK being such a pitcher's park, I find it impressive he is doing so well at home.

Pie-How long does this guy need in AAA? Lineup-I'd be shocked if the Cubs resigned Walker. Maybe you know something I don't, but I just don't see that happening.

Really, Mack Newton was a devastating loss. Injuries were a fraction of what they usually are when he was around.

So goony, how many starts was that you said Prior and Wood were going make this year...50? 60? I'll seriously be surprised if they make 10 between them.

That's an enormously bold thing to say. I'm sure there is alot more that you and I don't know about as opposed to what we DO know about. I played organized baseball for 16 years and in that time, I saw fights occur over every possible thing imaginable. I've even seen a fight between a 1B and a 2B because the 1B thought that the 2b had thrown the ball too hard to him on a ground out. I have no problem with suspending Barrett, but 10 games is a ton. That's funny! (The 1st & 2nd basemen fighting). Reminds me of Major League 3 (lets not even start that debate) when the twin brothers played 2nd and Short. Was that "Back to the Minors"....or am I thinking of the 4th one? I wasn't aware there was a fourth one. Then that must be back to the minors. I wasn't sure if there were 3 or 4...I didn't really like the second and third. That Japanese guy was really [expletive] annoying in the second.

This is what I think the lineup would be next year if we got him: CF Pie SS Cedeno 2B Soriano 1B Lee 3B Ramirez RF Jones C Barrett LF Murton/platoon Pitcher