srbin84

Translation: The only stats I'll accept or listen to are the stats that prove my case. No. I've been saying the same thing about Aramis since the season started.

that doesn't matter dude, he eats up alot of innings even though he's sucking this year. Plus that's an abberation, if you ignore the 3 other years he's been awful, he's been ok. I don't think you should Dustyize that sentiment. You've see how the exact two opposite types of pitcher can obliterate seasons on their own, and so have I, so I've learned the value of health and innings when it comes to starting pitching. If we are judging on career stats, everybody who does that agrees that Patterson is one of the worst players in the league, not far from Neifi status. I personally think that's a wrong way to look at things, but let's be consistent.

He's trying to say he doesn't care what actual factual statistics you come up with, he's sticking with his opinion, regardless how flimsy of evidence it's based upon. Or something like that. If you read the thread, this is a perfect post in regards to Raisin. He's saying Hernandez should be judged on what he was doing long ago and not recent history, but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite. No, he also said we should judge Livan by what he was doing in the present. I generally don't like to judge established veterans in their prime on a current season they aren't half way through yet, but the fairest way to judge him would be to use his 3 year splits plus his starts this year. If he wants to add that up, account for the innings and still tell him he isn't a good pitcher, I'll listen.

He's trying to say he doesn't care what actual factual statistics you come up with, he's sticking with his opinion, regardless how flimsy of evidence it's based upon. Or something like that. If you read the thread, this is a perfect post in regards to Raisin. He's saying Hernandez should be judged on what he was doing long ago and not recent history, but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite.

You'd have to include Hawkins and Alf in this too. To answer your question, I'll go with Fassero. At least with Rusch, you know the game is pretty much over before it begins. Fassero blew a lot of games we were winning.

I'd rather go with the 3.75ish figure because he had high ERAs when he was pretty young. A 3.75 would have put a team in 3rd place in the NL for team ERA. Teams average around 1440 IP. Livan regularly accounts for close to 17% of the team innings. That's the kind of guy you want to have around. I'd rather go with the facts. How young is pretty young? I've bolded a few from seasons after he's been well established in the league. 1996: 0.00 ERA 1997: 3.18 ERA 1998: 4.72 ERA 1999: 4.64 ERA 2000: 3.75 ERA 2001: 5.24 ERA 2002: 4.38 ERA 2003: 3.20 ERA 2004: 3.60 ERA 2005: 3.98 ERA 2006: 5.18 ERA So he's posting a 4.16 career ERA, but he eats a lot more innings than most pitchers. Innings eaters are great, but I don't see how they're something extra special when they're pitching just average over all those extra innings. Early to mid 20's is pretty young with his lack of experience. All I'm saying is to judge him now not just on 3-year splits but 6-year splits. I don't see anything unreasonable about that. Basically whatever will fit your argument? So the past 6 years is ok? I don't care what stats anybody wants to look at or what they want to say. Livan Hernandez is a good pitcher. He has led the league in innings each of the last 3 seasons and made the allstar game in two of those seasons. You're the one digging up old bones from years ago to try to defend your agrument. IMB laughs hysterically at the suggestion of a 6 year split but doesn't say anything when you use seasons from 5 years ago or longer ago as the buttress to your argument. Try and figure that one out.

Well, Livan has changed for the better in a big way, so 3 years is just fine with me.

I'd rather go with the 3.75ish figure because he had high ERAs when he was pretty young. A 3.75 would have put a team in 3rd place in the NL for team ERA. Teams average around 1440 IP. Livan regularly accounts for close to 17% of the team innings. That's the kind of guy you want to have around. I'd rather go with the facts. How young is pretty young? I've bolded a few from seasons after he's been well established in the league. 1996: 0.00 ERA 1997: 3.18 ERA 1998: 4.72 ERA 1999: 4.64 ERA 2000: 3.75 ERA 2001: 5.24 ERA 2002: 4.38 ERA 2003: 3.20 ERA 2004: 3.60 ERA 2005: 3.98 ERA 2006: 5.18 ERA So he's posting a 4.16 career ERA, but he eats a lot more innings than most pitchers. Innings eaters are great, but I don't see how they're something extra special when they're pitching just average over all those extra innings. Early to mid 20's is pretty young with his lack of experience. All I'm saying is to judge him now not just on 3-year splits but 6-year splits. I don't see anything unreasonable about that.

Livan is an exception to the rule because he produces an ungodly amount of innings. You can carry one less relief pitcher if you wanted because he pitches so much. So an ERA of X over Y IP = 3 or 4 starter but an ERA of X over Y + 50 IP = 1 or 2 starter You're talking out of both sides of your mouth here. Livan is probably the only guy who has an added value because of his stamina. That type of stamina is very rare and a big reason why he makes so much money. Why is added stamina so valuable if he's posting the same 4.16 ERA during that time? I'd rather go with the 3.75ish figure because he had high ERAs when he was pretty young. A 3.75 would have put a team in 3rd place in the NL for team ERA. Teams average around 1440 IP. Livan regularly accounts for close to 17% of the team innings. That's the kind of guy you want to have around.

dude the gay jokes aren't funny. Sorry, mods can delete it if they want because I can't now. It was just an Edmonds joke set up on a tee; no harm intended but mildly regretted.

Livan is an exception to the rule because he produces an ungodly amount of innings. You can carry one less relief pitcher if you wanted because he pitches so much. So an ERA of X over Y IP = 3 or 4 starter but an ERA of X over Y + 50 IP = 1 or 2 starter You're talking out of both sides of your mouth here. Livan is probably the only guy who has an added value because of his stamina. That type of stamina is very rare and a big reason why he makes so much money.

Look at pitches (specifically the pitches Prior threw as he tired and his mechanics altered). Pitcher abuse is a great stat to look at. Especially when it was Prior's first season throwing anywhere near that many innings. It's a good stat, but I'd like to see how many innings the non-Cubs at the top of the list pitch every year and what their performance is. I can tell you Livan Hernandez throws a lot of innings/pitches a year and really isn't that good. Actually, I'm a big fan of Livan and think he is a good pitcher. Is it the 5.18 ERA and 1.55 WHIP he has on the season that makes him a good pitcher? Or is it the career 4.16 ERA and .275 BAA? It's his numbers since leaving Florida (around 3.75 ERA) and the 220-250 IP every year as well as the complete games. He's not an ace, but one of the better No. 2's in the game. You NEVER have to worry about putting bums like Rusch in to pitch in his slot and dilute the numbers. I'm not judging him on his performance so far this year because he has a good and long resume. Wow. You do realize during his time in San Fran, he's had seasons worse or equivalent to Glendon Rusch had at the same time*? It's great that he can eat innings up, but it's not as great when he's average at best (and sometimes awful). And his career numbers aren't that great considering he's pitched his home games in three pitcher's havens (Florida, San Francisco and Washington). * 2001: Livan: 77 ERA+, Glendon: 89 ERA+ 2002: Livan: 87 ERA+, Glendon: 85 ERA+ He was like 21 when he came up, didn't even have 150 IP in the minors according to baseball cube and he was the real World Series MVP for the Marlins despite all of that. I would think someone who has such an interest in the minor leagues would not have such high expectations for a pitcher in those circumstances.

Livan is an exception to the rule because he produces an ungodly amount of innings. You can carry one less relief pitcher if you wanted because he pitches so much.

Look at pitches (specifically the pitches Prior threw as he tired and his mechanics altered). Pitcher abuse is a great stat to look at. Especially when it was Prior's first season throwing anywhere near that many innings. It's a good stat, but I'd like to see how many innings the non-Cubs at the top of the list pitch every year and what their performance is. I can tell you Livan Hernandez throws a lot of innings/pitches a year and really isn't that good. Actually, I'm a big fan of Livan and think he is a good pitcher. Is it the 5.18 ERA and 1.55 WHIP he has on the season that makes him a good pitcher? Or is it the career 4.16 ERA and .275 BAA? It's his numbers since leaving Florida (around 3.75 ERA) and the 220-250 IP every year as well as the complete games. He's not an ace, but one of the better No. 2's in the game. You NEVER have to worry about putting bums like Rusch in to pitch in his slot and dilute the numbers. I'm not judging him on his performance so far this year because he has a good and long resume.

Look at pitches (specifically the pitches Prior threw as he tired and his mechanics altered). Pitcher abuse is a great stat to look at. Especially when it was Prior's first season throwing anywhere near that many innings. It's a good stat, but I'd like to see how many innings the non-Cubs at the top of the list pitch every year and what their performance is. I can tell you Livan Hernandez throws a lot of innings/pitches a year and really isn't that good. Actually, I'm a big fan of Livan and think he is a good pitcher.

Look at pitches (specifically the pitches Prior threw as he tired and his mechanics altered). Pitcher abuse is a great stat to look at. Especially when it was Prior's first season throwing anywhere near that many innings. It's a good stat, but I'd like to see how many innings the non-Cubs at the top of the list pitch every year and what their performance is.

Getting his velocity back is a big IF. I don't think so. It's nearly half-way there from where he starter a few weeks ago. Are you saying he was throwing 85-87 in last start?

Getting his velocity back is a big IF. And even if he did, look at what he did the last two years when he had it....not exactly ace quality pitching.

My point was I can only blame Dusty so much. I can give him pretty much all of the blame for his 2004 performance, but at this point, I don't blame him for anything that happens to Prior or Wood. They had a lot of time to rehab more than once. Every other pitcher in the league deals with it too. Look at any playoff team and you will see a lot of guys who had more than 210 IP. That's just the way baseball is played. When you have a shot at the playoffs, you ride your horses. Wood had TJS before Baker or Baylor came here, and his injury problems can be traced back to his high school days. I don't want to call Prior a wimp because I know a lot of you don't like to hear that, but whatever it is, there is something about him that is a little bit different from most pitchers because he just doesn't seem like he can pitch a full season (let alone while playing at the level he is capable of). Some of you seem to be saying if the Cubs had a manager that took pitchers out a little earlier, Prior would be pitching at or near 200 innings a year. If that is what you guys are saying, I disagree. I don't like Dusty and wanted him and Hendry fired after 2004, but I'm not going to blame them for everything just out of convenience.

Don't you think taking a line drive on the elbow had more impact on Prior's career path? Not at all. I think 2003 had more to do with that. I'm not going to argue that Prior throws a lot of pitches in his starts, sometimes more than you would like to see (especially with big leads). However, he had one full season where he was very good and healthy. He's been neither since. I can't blame Dusty and the 7 innings per start he gave to the pitcher with the perfect mechanics for ruining his career (part blame, sure, but a lot has to do with the man himself and the types of injuries he has sustained).

No way Prior pitches well enough to get those kind of returns. If he had an ERA in the 1's, maybe 2's for the rest of year, I think you could get a very nice return for him. Otherwise, you hope he stays healthy and try to plug a hole on your team with a decent player in return for him and be thankful for it.

He's fine. He wasn't really injured. It was just a super secret steroids supsension. He was throwing high 80's, topping out at like 90 or 91 on occasion with no movement. The lack of curve balls is a concern as well. The curve ball puts more strain on the arm, so maybe he was holding it back because of the pain. Either that or the pitch just plain sucks for him right now. I hope he is fine/gets fine so we can get his butt out of town for anything of value, but I think that is a little too optimistic.

Rusch's last start looks like a superb display of pitching mastery compared to Prior's first start.

I'm not really surprised. He's not even close to being ready. I guess the shoulder strain is an out for the season type injury in this case because I don't see him doing anything decent in the big leagues for any kind of stretch for a long time.