goonys evil twin

I'm not sure I see the high reward part of it. The physical piece is there, but what I'm finding are statistics that leave a lot to be desired: 4+ ERA, 1.4 WHIP, etc. -- there's just nothing that jumps out at me and says it was anything but a bad, bad pick. He has been rated as first round talent. He's had better seasons in his previous years at ND and, as you said, the physical pieces are there. We'll see how his game is helped by facing wooden bats. To quote John Manuel from BA: But does he really have high reward, in the potential ace mold? It's not high reward in my mind unless the guy has potential star written over him. And it seems like his ceiling isn't all that tremendous.

Well you really come across as a swell guy. The only thing I know about this kid is what all the reports are saying about him. And from everything I read it was an enormous stretch to draft him this early. The Cubs spend $50 on a $30 steak. It could still be a decent steak, but it's no $50 steak. Colvin could be a decent player. But nothing so far indicates it was a good pick. Hopefully in a few years it'll look better.

But Hendry isn't going to trade Jones so it doesn't matter.

Career (may be incomplete) $9,848,000 I'd say they got the job done. amen to that.

That was the first thing I noticed. Only 3 more walks in 2005 in almost twice the at bats. Maybe Colvin might become a better PRO, then he was a college player. I think, Colvin could very well be a very good---not a superstar---player for the Cubs inside of 2 1/2 yrs. I think he is going to progress that fast. Really? What about him makes you think that? Just curious where you're getting your inside info on his career. I don't think any Cubs fan would have said this about the kid if he was taken by another team. A very good player for the Cubs in 2.5 years? We'll be lucky if he sees Wrigley in 2.5 years, and even then we'd be lucky if he compares to Murton by then. And Murton is not "very good". I think a more realistic idea would be he could be an adaquate enough as a player in 3 years so that the Cubs could put him on the field and afford significant talent around him.

He doesn't seem to be much of a patient guy. And he doesn't have a strong track record of performance. He was also rated much, much, much lower than where he was selected. Wouldn't you expect a football fan to question his team if they drafted a guy in the first round who everybody else had listed as a 3rd or 4th rounder? I don't think he's worth getting excited about. Maybe in a few years he'll be a halfway decent baseball player, but that's not exactly exciting. I'm reserving judgement at this time. Wilken's record in Toronto was stellar...16 of his 17 first round picks either are or were quality every day players in the majors. I'm real interested to see the direction our system moves in over the next couple of years. Just because you're not projected high doesn't mean squat in baseball. Look where Pujols was drafted... I'm not passing final judgement either. I was responding to another in a long line of criticism of fans for criticizing the Cubs. The guy could be a decent major leaguer some day. The odds of him being great are extremely small, and there's no one thing about him to really create a bunch of excitement.

I would have asked you for something more meaningful, like all their OBPs, SLGs and more info on others players.

He doesn't seem to be much of a patient guy. And he doesn't have a strong track record of performance. He was also rated much, much, much lower than where he was selected. Wouldn't you expect a football fan to question his team if they drafted a guy in the first round who everybody else had listed as a 3rd or 4th rounder? I don't think he's worth getting excited about. Maybe in a few years he'll be a halfway decent baseball player, but that's not exactly exciting.

So if he sucks, but gels, he can stay? Why not see if this very unlikely to be true theory of gelling is actually not true and remove him from the 2 hole if he sucks and see if Pierre can hit with somebody more competent there? Hitters don't need to gel with others around them, they need to hit. This isn't synchronized swimming.

So would you advocate keeping Womack in the 2 hole even as he reverts to crappy form because of this mystical gelling ability with Pierre?

Really makes you wonder if Pie might be going to another team this July... I really doubt -low level CFs with 1 or fewer tools, taken after round 5, with all affect Felix. Replacing Greenberg.

They're the new middle infielder, or catcher, or left handed pitcher.

Everything I've heard has him in the 10-20 range of the first round. If he drops into the 2nd round, Mark Bradley got about $2 million in guarantees.

I have to assume the odds are very high. They wouldn't have wasted their 2nd pick on the guy if they didn't plan on signing him. I just don't know why you'd sign a pitcher and then let him go play football. Huge risk. The only way this makes sense is if they believe he will quit football.

NFL WR vs MLB P If you are a likely top 10 15 draft selection as a wide receiver in the NFL, you are going to get between $8-12 million in guaranteed money in your first contract. Any success and you will have a new contract with new guarantee money within 4 years. Look at Randle El's deal, as a #2/3 receiver 4 years after the draft. $8m signing bonus, $27-31m potentail totel. The ND kid could make $25+m in his first 4-5 years in football, with anywhere from $8-12 guaranteed. How much could he get in baseball? Would it be realistic that he gets more than $8 million guaranteed as a 5th rounder, even if he gets 1st round money? Isn't $8m reserved for most elite draftees? Let's say he does somewhere sign a deal that guarantees him $8 million. If everything goes great and he makes the bigs after 2 years, it will still be another 4 years before he makes his first significant money, which could be about $3-6m, if he does really well in his first 3 pre-arby years. So, within 6 years of signing, he might makes $15m if all goes well. Add in the fact that he'd be a pitcher, which has a much bigger failure rate than NFL WR, and he could easily make more money in the NFL. Everybody likes to talk about the non-guaranteed contracts in football. But pretty much every contract is virtually guaranteed for at least the first few years because of the salary cap implications of cutting a guy early in the deal. Baseball players typicall have to play between 6-8 years in their organization before having any rights.

IMO, he would be crazy to play football over baseball. Football contracts are not guarenteed, unless he is a top 5 WR he won't make that much money, his carrer is likely to be much shorter, even bad starting pitchers make $4 mill a year. I guess more money up-front (potentially) but much less money over the course of a career. If the Cubs give him 1st round money or close to it, it would be hard to turn down. An NFL player's contract is no less of a guarantee than a pitching prospects career turning out. Mike Williams got a $10m signing bonus as the 10th pick last year for Detroit, and the salary cap has gone up considerably since then. He will get far more guaranteed up front money in football than in baseball, and it won't take nearly as much time for him to sign his next contract, (assuming he works out in either). And the likelihood of a top football prospect succeeding dwarfs that of a pitching prospect.

I really don't know. But it might be a little higher than normal. That percentage varies widely depending on the contract. Big money free agent contracts have a relatively low percentage guaranteed. Also we should remember that the salary cap went up significantly in 2006 and 2007, compared to when that deal was signed in 2005, so a WR taken 10th will probably get more.

Except the media all seem to be saying it's no big deal, while the "baseball people" are the ones who are talking bad about it.

No, it's a rate thing (at least I'm pretty sure it is).

And a much quicker big payday. And I'd say your last point has to be true. Pitching prospects of his caliber don't have a great success rate. WR aren't the easiest to predict either, but it's better than pitchers. How much of a signing bonus does a WR take in the 10-16 range in the draft receive? Base NFL salary's in the 300K range, right? How about the 10th pick in 2005: "The Lions signed Williams to a five year contract on August 1, 2005. ESPN.com reports the deal is worth $13.5 million, $10.5 million of which is guaranteed." A pitcher signs his first baseball deal, toils in the minors for a while, and his arbitration clock doesn't start ticking until his callup. His first real big payday as a Cubs wouldn't be for another 5 years, assuming his arbitration clock starts up in 2 years. And at that point he might make $6 million? He could be on his 2nd big NFL signing bonus by then.

Who upsets you more at this point, Jones or Pierre? Just curious, include the contract situations as well. Probably Pierre. Jones cost a couple dollars and a draft pick. Pierre cost more this year, less overall, but much more talent. And despite it being a bad signing and likely to hurt the team in the long run, Jones has produced.

I've heard upper 80's and lower 90's, never upper 90's.

They've only had 3 picks to deal with. It's not like they were forced to only have 3 picks in 6 rounds. They put themselves in this position with offseason moves that have them 10 games under .500 and well out of the race. Wilken certain was forced into this position. Remember he was brought in this offseason as well and if memory serves, it was well after the FA signings. Wilken runs the draft and his hands were somewhat tied. I'm not trying to be overly optimistic, and for the record, this draft disappoints we as well, but realistically this was a poor draft well before a single pick was made. If you had to choose a draft where you only had a few picks, wouldn't you pick the weakest draft? I would pick a more impactful group of free agents to lose my picks over.

And a much quicker big payday. And I'd say your last point has to be true. Pitching prospects of his caliber don't have a great success rate. WR aren't the easiest to predict either, but it's better than pitchers.

They've only had 3 picks to deal with. It's not like they were forced to only have 3 picks in 6 rounds. They put themselves in this position with offseason moves that have them 10 games under .500 and well out of the race.