This attitude reminds me a lot of the questions about Hill, and every other prospect that isn't great in his first year. How long? Well, a long time actually. At least until he's 26, when he'll be reaching his peak. His power is likely to keep improving after that age, even if his overall game declines. Here's a perfectly realistic potential developmental line for Murton: Current - .295/.362/.417 2006 final - .300/.365/.425 (24 years old) 2007 final - .305/.375/.440 (25 years old) 2008 final - .310/.380/.460 (26 years old) That is a gradual improvement, and entirely possible. Do I predict it'll happen that way? No. He might take a big jump next year and have a setback in 2008. Or he might stay stagnant in 2007 and make a huge leap in 2008. I have no idea. But that 2008 season, at age 26, is pretty darn good, and he'll still be pretty affordable. If that happens, I would expect similar production for the next 3 years, and by that time the Cubs will have spent maybe $16-20m on all his pre free agency seasons. That's nowhere near Lee or Ramirez, or the elite outfielders in baseball. But it's pretty solid production for a very reasonable cost, allowing you to spend much more on other positions, to make up for any SLG deficiency.