toonsterwu

I think they did that, expecting to do more this year, but got scared off by Castro and Rizzo not making strides. So, they took a step back, since payroll is an issue with us and they didn't want to box themselves in. I think they did it because they had a need, it was a guy in his prime, and it wasn't going to be a mega-year/mega-money deal. While 4 isn't short, it isn't long enough to leave them in a bind for any long-term planning, and Edwin was hitting his prime years. It was also a nice PR move - a big enough signing to say, hey, we're trying, but not big enough to hamper any long term planning.

Johnson would be the easy call on this one. It's odd, I wasn't huge on him last year, but I almost think he's a bit under-rated now. I'm still not convinced there is as big a gap between Johnson and CJ Edwards as the votes imply, and I would take him over Alcantara, which is more a nod to Johnson, as I still like Arismendy.

Decided to come on and post some random thoughts - 1. They swung, and they missed. Nothing wrong with that on Tanaka. I had a hard time believing that we had a legitimate chance in this, particularly once it became clear that the Yankees were going to go all-out. I'm still somewhat curious how he will pan out (I mean, he's supposed to be what, a low K, high GB guy?) 2. Could we have gone after other people? Did any of them make sense, with a combination of age, cost, and length of contract? My inclination is to say no, but that's also due to 3. Kyle makes a comment above about 2 paths. I don't really see it that way. I know I was criticized a couple years ago when I said it, but 2016 always looked like the most realistic target for a start of a new window, and I think the FO chose their path already, and likely won't deviate from it barring immense pressure from ownership, which I have a hard time seeing. When Theo came in, he talked about how wonderful it would've been to have a home-grown Red Sox club, and regretting some of his final big purchases there. Obviously, you need some free agents sprinkled in, but they made a choice to look long-term, unless the FA situation aligned itself, or the deal made enough sense for them. Tanaka, much as I still have some reservations about how good he will be, was a nice fit in that regards. Who else fit? Ellsbury is at the tipping point of his prime years, still in it, but in the middle of it. There wasn't much that really fit (admittedly, there rarely is). I doubt they will go for the Ellsbury type contracts in FA until they get a sense they are closer, and our top chips are still raw enough to be wary about making such a move. Put it another way - the mega-year/mega-money deals would have to be perfect fits for them to go after. A guy like Edwin Jackson was a nice short-term (Granted, 4 years isn't that short, but it wasn't an Ellsbury type deal) plug who was in his prime. I'm not saying I like the process, but I don't disagree with it at this juncture. They chose their path awhile ago, and we'll have to hope enough goes well in 2014, and we get some youngsters developing. If that's the case, I could see them being more aggressive next winter. Edit: Couple typos.

While there weren't any Rule 5 names that I was jumping for (heck ... IIRC the interesting names list on BA, the Cubs guys available seemed as interesting, if not moreso, than most), it is ... pretty shitty to lose that pick over basically 1 day. I can't fault the Phillies - it's their right to pursue it, but boy ... it sucks.

I'm mighty curious if all the Orioles talks implies that they backed off of the idea that Gausman was untouchable, or, more likely, that that Cubs might be really high on Eduardo Rodriguez. A Samardzija trade does make sense for the Orioles in that, they don't have that much maneuverability unless they can somehow move Johnson and/or Markakis without eating too much (doubtful, IMO ... they can probably move Johnson and get some savings, though). Thus, if they can get Samardzija, they might have the flexibility to land another bat or two.

Random thoughts: I really don't have any qualms about the Rule 5 moves. I had some issue with the Flaherty decision a couple years ago because there was an apparent need for an upper level utility player, along with some pop (and that they followed it up with a Jeff Bianchi signing), but they lucked into Valbuena/Cardenas that winter (effectively replacing Flaherty/LeMahieu). To me, Flaherty was a borderline case. I really don't see any issue this year. Ha - Perhaps the most difficult guy to rank in the system in some respects. Here's a super young kid with plus defensive ability in AAA. You still hear folks suggest that there's power in that body/swing (but as someone noted, he made swing adjustments this year to try and fit a top of the order profile). That said, at some point, ARL can only mean so much. He has some starting potential, but he's not a guy you really want in the bigs early-mid next year. If he gets picked and sticks on another team, I think you tip your cap, wish him the best, and move on. Add in that his offensive profile is similar to Szczur and the fact that Szczur's contract has him on the 40 (if Szczur wasn't, I do wonder if Ha gets protected). Hernandez/Amaya - Honestly, if a team wants to pick one of them and put them on the roster all year ... be my guest. I still like both of them enough, but eh. Jokisch - This is the guy that I think could get picked that I might sort of wonder about in a year's time, but then again, it's not like he's got superb stuff to make us HAVE to protect him. He's got a solid enough fastball that it's not hard to imagine a team saying, maybe he can be a 2nd lefty/long man/junk man out of the pen. Still, he's not that much better, if at all, than the lefties ahead of him, so eh. Hatley - I thought he could get picked last year, and I do wonder if he gets picked this year. Power pen arms in the upper levels seem to get looks. That said, he's 26, not exactly consistent on the breaking stuff to really project as a late inning guy (would it surprise me if he got a look at that role at some point in his career? No, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he was on the AAA shuttle for a long time). As one of our final draft and follows, he's been around for awhile and persevered, but ... is there a need to protect him? Nah. You can find similar guys each winter. I do hope that he is back, though. Loosen (and Cates) - I sorta like themm, but ... yeah, nice fastballs, but not neither guy really projects as a starter. In the pen, they are ... Marcus Hatley? I mean, I get Beeler more than I get Loosen (and Beeler being protected was sort of eh for me as well). Longshot thought - I wonder if a team looks at Trey McNutt and wonders if they can fix him. I doubt it, but I wonder. I guess I also mildly wonder if a team looks at Rhee, but neither guy would be one to get bothered by if they get picked.

Well, I'm painting a thin line here. I don't necessarily need an elite prospect for Shark, just a very good one, something higher than an AJ Cole. Maybe I'm over-estimating Shark's value in this market, as I haven't paid attention to any rumors to get a guage. I'd probably take Stroman (who I'm not ridiculously huge on personally) or Sanchez as a headlining piece. I'd have to see the rest of the Blue Jays system to really get a gauge. To be honest, I'd probably take Eduardo Rodriguez as a headlining piece (thought he was over-hyped entering the year, but he finished strong and looks really tantlizing) over AJ Cole by a smidgen, but off the top, I can't think of enough other pieces to form a deal that I would really love. I don't think Gausman or Bundy are going to be moved in anything this winter. I admit that I haven't really pondered baseball in awhile, so maybe what I'm expecting can't be met, or maybe I'm not expecting enough. Just going on gut feeling with my comments.

The short of it is, without Giolito or Rendon, I wouldn't really consider a Nats deal. I'm not huge enough on the combination of Cole/Jordan/Karns in that, I gotta think that we could get a higher impact piece to headline a deal. To be real clear, I'm a big, big AJ Cole fan, just not big enough as of right now to think that he should headline a Samardzija deal this winter. To be clear, this isn't to say I'm not for dealing Samardzija. I've argued that we should consider it since early in 2013. If for some reason, that big trade doesn't come (seems like several teams will consider moving solid arms this offseason), I think we can push it until mid-season to move him. There's a risk involved in that, but it's worth the gamble, I think. Simply put, I want one high level prospect in return for Samardzija.

I think a Samardzija trade is going to be a difficult one to accomplish. He hasn't done enough to get another team to fork over that mega-package, and yet, the stuff/ability has shown well enough that the Cubs would need a big package to move him. Somewhere in that thin area in between is the ability to get a deal done. I think we're better off waiting and positioning Samardzija as one of the final big chips. Speaking specifically to the Nats, I'm going to be surprised if they fork over Giolito in a deal. The problem is, without Giolito, there really isn't a top shelf guy. What they do have is a quantity of good quality. I'm an AJ Cole fan, but he's not a stud, top of the line arm type. He's a very good guy, and I think he could be a quality mid-rotation type if all pans well. I'm very wary of Brian Goodwin. Just never really on board with him and am not completely sold that he's starting caliber. I mean, if you were offered say ... Cole/Robbie Ray/and 1 (let's pick a name, say, a Matt Purke gamble ...), that'd be a pretty intriguing package in many respects, but the lack of a top shelf guy would make it spotty. I think I would be more intrigued with a possible Blue Jays deal, although I'd still be wary of it. Who was the other team rumored? Slipping my mind right now.

I'm still of the mindset that Pierce Johnson has to be off-limits (for the most part ... I mean, if they said we'll take CJ or Pierce and some low level secondary pieces for CarGo, I probably wouldn't say no ... again depends on secondary pieces). We already have a lack of top SP talent and Pierce offers solid 2, 2/3 potential, with some polish.

I'm not even sure where this discussion is (just skimming through right now), but if a Cargo trade is simply built around Vogelbach/Alcantara as the main pieces, you almost have to make that deal. I really like both Vogelbach and Alcantara, but a proven major leaguer in his prime is going to cost something. The problem is, what pitching gets put in there? It's sort of hard to see them taking a low level arm to finish off a deal, but there's very few choices in the upper levels that makes sense for the Cubs AND them. I'm not sure what to expect this offseason, but I will be rather surprised if they don't add a 2nd tier starting pitcher to go with Samardzija/Jackson/Wood. I'll be somewhat disappointed if they spend big on the pen, as I'm fine letting Bard, Strop, and others sort it out. As for C, I could see them pursuing a "Russell Martin-leadership" move, to work with Welington and split time, but McCann seems like a big, big buy. The market for McCann seems like it's going to be pretty strong, and giving him multiple years and a big contract? Not sure if I love the idea.

Haven't really been following, but the placement looks solid enough based upon past history and criteria of BA lists. Pierce should be top 100. I think he's almost been a bit ... over-looked? If he's healthy, and if the stuff shows as well as it did this past year, he's a very good and complete pitching prospect with solid upside.

If everything else stayed the same and he was 6'4" 200 pounds? I'd probably be a touch more comfortable talking about him as a top 10 pitching prospect, but I don't know if it would really change my mind that he feels a tad over-hyped. Don't get me wrong- a) I really love CJ Edwards, and I indicated that pre-trade b) I really hope he becomes an elite prospect. To be quite honest, I haven't really pondered a top 10 pitching prospect list. I can come up with about 6-7 guys I would place as solid top 10 pitching prospects, but haven't had time to flesh it out (and probably won't flesh one out). I know, reading through these threads, that a couple guys I respect have been really effusive on him, so I hope he really is that good. That said, it goes beyond just durability for me. I'm not completely sold that his change and curve are consistently plus pitches, so as of now, I'm not sure his ceiling is as high as some suggest. I think it's better than ... uh (who was the "negative" national guy on him ... Parks?) says, as I think he's got solid mid-rotation ceiling, maybe, if we wanted to go "numbers", a possible 2/3. He had a ridiculously dominant season and deserves a ton of credit for that ... I'm not taking away from his awesome season. But if I'm ranking, my questions on his ceiling would combine with his durability questions to give me enough pause on him. If his ch and cb take a step forward next year and he remains dominant in a A+/AA campaign? Then sure, I'd put him high. Durability questions aren't going to preclude me from ranking a guy high, on a personal level, if he's that good. It's just ... the combination of stuff has me pausing a bit on the hype ... and I really love Edwards potential/ability.

It's ... odd ... I guess. I really love Edwards, but I feel like he's getting slightly over-hyped. Heck, I'm still not sure I buy the argument that, in terms of rankings, Edwards should be ahead of Pierce Johnson, and I don't think Pierce is in anyone's consensus top 10 pitching prospect.

Personally, I would keep Baez at AA to start 2014. I would want to see if the improvement in his approach in the 2nd month in AA was legitimate. It was a very positive sign, but one can't be too confident on 2 month samples. That said, fall ball could shape their perspective on things, as well as next spring. My hunch is that he'll be given a NRI to big league camp, but won't be given a realistic shot, and have a clear shot at starting in AAA, but I still like the idea of seeing him in AA for one more month, to see how his approach holds and to see how AA managers do against him now that there's a longer "book" on him.

Second team: SP Kyle Hendricks I dont know anything about Hendricks from a stuff perspective, but his results remind me of Sean Gallagher. Any reason to think he's better than that? Stuff wise, at his best, and Gallagher had some injury that hampered in Oakland, his stuff was better than Hendricks by a bit. Keep in mind, when Gallagher entered the system, his stuff wasn't great, but it steadily improved. Now, Gallagher eventually had some issues commanding his improved stuff. Hendricks has a chance to be better than that, and I'm not huge on Hendricks and I was pretty big on Gallagher. But Hendricks ability to throw strikes with slightly above average stuff gives him a better shot to find a role in the bigs as a starter.

+: - Javier Baez always had the potential to dominate ... but perhaps what was most impressive about him was how he improved his approach in his 2nd month in AA. Now ... 2 month samples can be tricky things to assess, and I really would start him at AA next year to see how things hold approach wise (but it wouldn't surprise me if they put him higher). The way he adjusted was perhaps the most impressive thing in an amazingly impressive campaign. - Christian Villanueva's power shouldn't be a question. The OP is right - with Olt's struggles and Bryant's bat's ability to play anywhere, Villanueva's slick fielding at 3rd could be a good fallback option. Of course, there's a lot of moving pieces in place for our positional future. - I can't say Alcantara's season really surprised me, but a very bright spot was how he bounced back in August after a down July. In any other organization, he's probably still at shortstop, but he could be primed to push for the bigs sooner than later at 2nd. - Kyle Hendricks lack of stuff will always hamper him, and while I admit that I wasn't a big fan entering the year, it's hard not to be impressed with what he did. - Chris Rusin will never impress anyone, but strike throwing lefties can stick around, and he has enough depth in his arsenal. Again, I'm not suggesting he's anything quality, just a potentially passable piece as an end of the rotation arm or pen option. - Dustin Geiger had a very good season, and the former 23rd (I think) round overslot was really solid. He'll have to keep mashing as he's a first/DH guy. -: - I don't know if many people are lumping him into the disappointments, but I think Logan Watkins was disappointing. While I was never as big on Logan Watkins as some (was always wary that his last two campaigns were propped up by hot summer months), there was some hype on him entering the year. I don't think his season can be looked at as anything but disappointing, and it's hard for me to envision him as a starting 2nd baseman, as others thought he could be entering the year. - Nick Struck was never a big prospect, but it's a disappointment to go from org pitcher of the year to being demoted. Loss of stuff can do that to you. - Arodys Vizcaino not pitching is a disappointment in that, it becomes exponentially harder to imagine him as a starter. - Stephen Bruno's injury was disappointing. - I don't really know what happened, but Starling Peralta went from very interesting, to Rule 5, to making some noise in D-backs camp (very early), to bottoming out. Still relatively young, but things certainly didn't go well for him this year. - I'll jump aboard the Paniagua train here as well. Actually, to take it a step further, we didn't have that many young low-level arms emerge (not including the 2013 draft class). Maples is sort of in neutral, Underwood didn't do much. Blackburn was very solid at times, but struggled as well, and the move to full-season will be ... interesting. Arias didn't do much. Darkhorse: - The Cubs collected a lot of aggressive swingers in the Hendry era. Guys like Junior Lake and Arismendy Alcantara were aggressive guys, but they never struck out a ton. Rubi Silva is an aggressive guy at the plate, but he doesn't strike out a ton. I'm not betting my house on it, but if he can show any uptick in his walk rate, it's not hard to envision him as a possibly somewhat intriguing corner OF prospect. He has the bat speed, pop, and raw athleticism to hold some intrigue. Again, not betting my house on it. - I believe Craig kept noting him earlier in the year, but Eric Jokisch had himself a very solid season. His stuff is a bit firmer than Raley or Rusin's and could be a darkhorse type to make it as a starter. - There are moments where Rhee looks like a potential mid-rotation arm, and then there are bad games. I wouldn't bet on him as a starter, but I wouldn't rule it out yet. Along those lines, Beeler is probably in the same boat, although I'm less certain on how I feel about him right now. - Ben Wells probably will never find the consistency on his breaking ball to take another step, but his plus sinker and usable arsenal gives him a shot to be an innings eating starter. Change-of-Scenery Time: - I was never huge on Josh Vitters, and I always liked Brett Jackson, but I think both are at change of scenery time. My hunch is that Brett will still be around, barring an intriguing sell-low swap, but both guys probably need to move on to other organizations. In Vitters case, there's simply no where for him to go anymore. He's not an option at 3rd, he's not going to make it at first. In Brett's case, it sounds like the (needed) tinkering hampered his instincts, and maybe he just needs a different voice. Other: - For a couple years, Jae-Hoon Ha's age was always a mildly valid thing to point to in his rankings (in combination with his tools). At a certain point, age doesn't matter anymore, and it seems fairly clear that Ha will never tap into all the raw tools he possesses, at least, offensively. Still ... he is young, he is a solid defensive outfielder, and it seems quite possible that he could potentially be a nice depth OF in the big. -Mike Olt had a disappointing year, but there were some mild positives after his move to the Cubs, and I think he'll get a crack at the starting big league job next year. - Jake Arrieta and Alberto Cabrera - I'm lumping these two together. I'm not sure either guy is a starter, but with the lack of upper level starting pitching prospects, it's worth it to give them a look, and both of them have big time stuff. If we get one starter out of the two, it'll be a huge win. Heck, it won't be a loss if neither makes it as a starter. It was a good gamble to try. - Matt Szczur showed a consistent approach, but it was a very up and down season for him at times, and his lack of top tier base-stealing instincts makes it hard to see him as anything more than a depth OF on a good squad. - Zach Cates had a decent bounceback season and looked much better in the pen, where his shaky command won't be as big an issue. ____ A lot more could be said, but all in all, a very fascinating and largely positive season for the system.

I find it sort of ... odd ... that I'm saying this, considering I've said positive things about Beeler and Loosen in the past (and in the case of Loosen, as recently as last year), but I'm just not sure what's so exciting about them to get noted like that. I don't have the Mesa staff in front of me, so maybe it's the best of the Rule 5 possibilities. I think Beeler has a shot as a starter, but much as I argued that Loosen was intriguing enough last winter, in my gut of guts, he feels like a pen arm, despite solid fb velo and 4 average to slightly better than average pitches.

Well ... to the best of my recollection, you typically get a lot more of the top tier hitting prospects than pitching prospects, and I imagine that's the case this year as well (although I haven't perused an entire list ... the only names that stood out, pitching wise, at first glance, were guys like Hultzen (understandable, on rehab), Aaron Sanchez (a good test for him, I guess, to see how his plus stuff/iffy command holds against better hitting prospects), Alex Meyer (haven't followed him all year, but it looks, on paper, like a very good season ... could be primed for a look late in 2014), Kyle Crick, Andrew Heaney, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Marcus Stroman. Heck, on talent, Arodys Vizcaino might be the most talented arm there (assuming his stuff hasn't declined). There will probably be others, but often times, you get teams utilizing the AFL to see how role players/pen arms do to see if they can fill jobs next year. Furthermore, a lot of the top pitchers hit innings limits or are just starting their pro careers and, I'm guessing, teams are a bit more wary of putting them in the AFL now since they signed earlier and got full-season work (I'm guessing Jon Gray won't go, and Mark Appel definitely won't). It looks to be an interesting list of arms, but not exactly an overwhelming group. It wouldn't surprise anyone if Hultzen, despite positive signs, never made the high floor projections of him out of college, or if Sanchez/Crick struggled with their first shots in AA. Eduardo Rodriguez has come on strong in the 2nd half, but I still think he's a bit over-hyped, and Stroman might be better off in the pen. Actually, the most intriguing arm out of that group, to me, might be Heaney. Anyhow, short of it is, the talent level in AFL is really good, and on paper, it looks as good as it has in recent years, but the pitching side is always a bit thin, so if we're judging Javier Baez's ability to adjust based on perceptions of the quality of the pitching talent, then on paper, he should do fine. That said, there's going to be some polished "veteran" arms there as well, which should challenge him. Furthermore, some lower profile arms will likely be utilized in shorter bursts than they usually are, which could lead to their stuff playing up (Esmailin Caridad in AFL looked like a stud to some). Finally, they could have Baez working on certain things. Edit: Let's see, some other, at first glance, interesting pitching names might be Colby Suggs, Trevor May, Matt Purke, Sammy Solis (although both Purke and Solis would be with Baez, so they would only face in practice), Greyson Garvin, Matt Stites, Sean Nolin, and Branden Kline. There's some "names" that like Mike Montgomery, Taylor Jungmann, and Tyler Matzek, although none of those three are really top level arms, IMO. There's probably some interesting guys I'm not aware of, but it's really not awash with top level pitching talent.

That makes no sense. If it was a mistake, the Nats could have said to the Cubs "pull him back or give him for nothing, but we're not offering anything." By offering a PTBNL, they clearly wanted him to some degree or another. My guess is that with the Harper injury, they wanted some insurance for the short term, but wanted to keep their options open if another trade came down the line. If that's the case, it would seem to suggest that the return for DeJesus isn't all that much (half wonder if we simply grab someone like Ian Dickson as a PTBNL).

I still am highly doubtful that this FO will make that big veteran "top-tier free agent" splash this off-season. After 2014, with more and more prospects, particularly arms,in the upper levels? I can see that, but it just feels like this is one-year early to make that big splash, based on what the FO has said and done. Granted, maybe they are trying to get everyone to think that way for a specific purpose, but with so many teams flush with money, I'm taking them at face-value for now. While I think the idea of intentionally waiting to be "ready" to add quality players to the major league roster is ridiculous, as it is, the notion of waiting because it's ONE YEAR early is beyond absurd. I don't necessarily disagree with this, but I just don't see them adding a top tier FA at markets rates until more guys are into the upper levels of the minors and they have better clarity on what long term needs might exist. To be real clear, I have, in no place, said that I didn't think they would add quality players this off-season. I have simply said that I don't see them considering adding a guy considered a top tier FA until next offseason unless it's for a cheaper than expected rate. I may be way off on this, but everything the front office has said about how they are building through accumulation of young talent, along with Theo's past reflections on his previous tenure, makes me think they will wait on guys considered elite FA's until at least next offseason. Now, I could see them go after, say, a Josh Johnson or a Tim Lincecum level guy, particularly if the price comes closer to the Edwin Jackson range, guys that probably aren't "breaking the bank" this offseason, but will get a fair amount of money.

I still am highly doubtful that this FO will make that big veteran "top-tier free agent" splash this off-season. After 2014, with more and more prospects, particularly arms,in the upper levels? I can see that, but it just feels like this is one-year early to make that big splash, based on what the FO has said and done. Granted, maybe they are trying to get everyone to think that way for a specific purpose, but with so many teams flush with money, I'm taking them at face-value for now. I'm the opposite; I think this means they are very interested in bringing someone in for 2014. They signed Edwin for decent $$ this offseason at a position of weakness, why wouldn't they try to do the same for the lineup? Add an OF, get somewhat bounce back years from Castro/Rizzo and this lineup isn't looking all that bad. I could see them getting an "Edwin Jackson" 2nd tier addition. I'm just not sure I see them going after the Granderson's/Ellsbury's/Choo's of the world. Here's hoping you guys are right, as it'd be nice to be ... better ... but I'm just not sure I buy it. Of the trio, the only one I could remotely see is probably Ellsbury, unless the other guy's prices came cheaper than expected. But Ellsbury's probably getting to get impact, top tier money, and I just remain doubtful. Having not seen a FA list yet (too lazy to check), I don't know who would qualify, in my mind, as a 2nd tier FA, but I'm just not sure I see them going after a guy considered an elite free agent this summer. But that's me.

That would be a ridiculously good return for DeJesus. If they got Karns for him, wow. That'd be ... amazing for DeJesus. My hunch is that that'd be a tad much for a guy who is going to be the 4th OF for the Nats, but I hope you are right.

I still am highly doubtful that this FO will make that big veteran "top-tier free agent" splash this off-season. After 2014, with more and more prospects, particularly arms,in the upper levels? I can see that, but it just feels like this is one-year early to make that big splash, based on what the FO has said and done. Granted, maybe they are trying to get everyone to think that way for a specific purpose, but with so many teams flush with money, I'm taking them at face-value for now.

My guess is that with all the Harper plunkings and the injury he suffered, the Nationals wanted to get some insurance and have the money to keep him around as a bench guy next season. He doesn't make sense for the Nationals long run, as Span struggles against lefties as well, and a healthy Harper/Werth are playing ahead of DeJesus. If this is simply insurance for the Nationals, and it's hard to view it as anything more than that, I'd be surprised if the return paid was that great. Still, one would imagine that the return would be more than someone like ... well, Pineyro. Very curious, as I'm drawing a blank on the typical possibilities I would imagine in a situation like this (typically, I'd think solid upside piece, but far away, but nothing great comes to mind). I wonder about a Solis.