toonsterwu

This isn't meant as an over-reaction to one game, but I do wonder if Brandon Waddell will hold on as UVA's Friday starter all year. Talent-wise, Kirby and Sborz are clearly better in terms of "stuff". Looks like Connor Jones will be in Branden Kline's freshman year role as a fireman of sorts. My guess is that, with three sophomores in the rotation, that Connor will follow Branden's path and be the closer next year, with a shot at anchoring the rotation as a junior.

As a UVA fan, I am very excited about this upcoming season. The offensive talent and depth on this squad is just ridiculously good (good enough that a somewhat intriguing sophomore, George Ragsdale, transferred). It starts with a ridiculously loaded junior class. I really expect Derek Fisher to have a monster year. I think people forget he was banged up a bit last year. If Brandon Downes cuts down on his K's, while keeping his power, it wouldn't surprise me if he challenged Fisher to be the first Wahoo off the board in the MLB draft. Mike Papi has such a good approach, and has better pop than he's recognized for (although I still have a hard time figuring out what he might become as a professional). Branden Cogswell will probably play more 2nd this year, but he's capable enough at short, and he's a good top of the order bat. On another team, Kenny Towns would be an intriguing collegiate bat, as there's some pop to go with being a solid glove at the hot corner. It's just a loaded group, and as of now, I expect that everyone besides Towns should be a solid top 10 round guy (and I could see him be a top 10 round value/save money pick). One could make an argument, IMO, that the most complete hitter might be sophomore Joe McCarthy. John LaPrise had a good Northwoods run, but might be stuck as a backup MI, as Daniel Pinero has supposedly looked that good at short. This offensive group, IMO, is not only a better collegiate lineup than the UVA Jarrett Parker led groups that went to the CWS, but it's also a grouping that has more pro potential, IMO. The big question concerning UVA is with their pitching, but ... the arm talent/upside/potential/ceiling might be superior to the positional grouping. The weekend rotation, as of now, will be three sophomores, Brandon Waddell, Nate Kirby, and Josh Sborz. Kirby and Sborz have arm strength and arsenal to really project as potentially intriguing starting arms for the pros. I had thought Sborz would be kept in the pen until his junior year, with the depth of arms that UVA has, but he must have been that impressive. The reports on Kirby all off-season have been stellar, and he might be living up to the hype. Waddell's the "savvy" arm of the group, with an average fastball, but he was a good Friday starter last year. Of course, that leaves aside Connor Jones, who might have the most arm talent of the group, along with senior Artie Lewicki, who looked like a fascinating pro prospect 2 summers ago before getting hurt (and a solid looking arm in Trey Oest transferred to Tampa). The depth of UVA arms has allowed them to move a solid Sunday starter (and a guy who could get drafted as a positional guy) in Nick Howard to closer, and it wouldn't surprise me if he was mid-90's with his fastball out of the pen. There's no guarantees, but on paper, I think this UVA squad is better than last year's UNC squad, and if the pitching matches up to their potential, they could be really dominant. Fun times (particularly since the sophomore/freshmen classes look good, and by most accounts, they have an intriguing recruiting class coming in). Barring any more winter storms, I think there should be a very good matchup next Friday, the 21st, with ECU and likely Hoffman, going up against this UVA lineup. Should be a good test for Hoffman.

craig, minus fastball for Pineyro? Velocity wise, it is at least in the low 90's, unless guns and reports are all off. He can locate it. Movement wise, I can't say, as it's been awhile. But ... it feels like it's at least an average, as of now, pitch.

Essentially, "upside" because of stuff. Pineyro's probably got a better chance to be a starter, but Black is so far away that you can sort of hope a bit. Personally, I think they are fairly close to each other. To be fair, the "grade" difference between say, 10 and 25 really won't be as much as the gap in rankings might suggest.

I'd probably have Lake somewhere in the 9-15 range. My hunch is I would actually have him in the top 10 (at the end). The strikeout rate wasn't end of the world bad, and he walked more than I really expected his first year. We have some clarity on where he would play. I say this as someone that's never really gotten on the Lake wagon, but if I'm going to argue that Villanueva deserves to be in the top 10, I see no reason why Lake should be significantly behind him, as the offensive profiles are similar (with Lake arguably having a higher offensive ceiling), and Lake is only one year older than Villanueva. As for this vote, I voted Zastryzny, Blackburn, Ramirez. I think Ramirez is being under-sold a touch. He's still an upper level arm with good stuff with a shot to be a starter (as I said before, if I had to bet money on what he'd become as of right now, if he made it to the bigs, I'd guess a pen arm, but it's not like he doesn't have the stuff to have a shot as a starter, and his command isn't off the charts bad to absolutely rule him out). In the pen, Ramirez is likely to have similar potential to what Corey Black offers, and he's got a better shot to be a starter than Black, IMO.

I really don't consider Gallagher and E. Patterson to be "hurtful" subjects for the Cubs. Disappointed, perhaps, but we got value for them in the Harden deal, and if I recall A's fans correctly, Gallagher might've been damaged by their manager (something about coming out after a rain delay). We arguably sold at the highest point on Gallagher. I loved Gallagher, but prospects are meant to be utilized, and I can't fault the thinking behind that trade. Now, that 2005 draft, that hurt. After the "polished and mature for his age" Pawelek and Donald Veal, it seemed like a bleh draft then, and it looks like an awful draft now. I don't really recall - were Johnston and Reynolds actually hyped up as anything pre-draft?

Loxas didn't claim he wrote it. Said a "scout source" wrote it, and I can buy that a "scout source" rushed through things on an email and might not have all his information on the Cubs prospects correct. As for the list, I can buy it. Nothing, at first glance, that I would be significantly against. On a total side note, are we going to get the rankings list re-started?

Interesting. I haven't checked Arguello's site in awhile, but I am fairly clear now when and where I heard 89-93, and it was probably, if my recollection is correct, a couple weeks earlier than Arguello's report. craig, the biggest issue for me is what velocity he's throwing his 2-seamer at. i'm pretty the 89-93 was a reference to his 2-seamer (again, didn't follow late in the season all that closely). He hasn't really gone to a 4-seamer all that much since hitting full-season (I'm sure he probably has thrown one here or there). While the power sinker would be nice, if he can sit hit 90-92, he has a shot, provided the breaking ball improves. Now, if he's topping out on a 4-seamer in the low 90's, then I'd be a little troubled. I'll be honest, I'm not expecting him to go back to the, what, 93-96 mph 2-seamer?, that reportedly showed a bit more in Boise. Just not expecting it. As a side note, the other big worry with Wells back in the day was command/efficiency, and that, if anything, may also be a huge factor as to whether or not he can stick as a starter. There was a stretch uh, a couple years ago? (I want to say it was his good run in Peoria, but I'd have to doublecheck), where he would pitch well, but would use up a ton of pitches and be gone by the 4th/5th.

I think Pineyro and Contreras both deserve to be "in the discussion". Personally, I doubt I put them top 20, but they certainly should be in the mix. As for my vote, went with my standard 3 - Zastryzny, Ramirez, Vizcaino.

A quick internet search right now only gets me some tweet early last year about Ben Wells around 88-91mph, which is relatively close to what I had in my mind yesterday (89-93). I'm almost certain that he topped out around 92/93 at times last year, at least around summer. Anyhow, I actually hope you guys are right, because that gives a bit more hope to Wells (if injury did hamper him ... ). At the end of the day, how his breaking ball develops will determine if he can make it as a starter.

craig, I could be wrong on this, but I'm fairly certain that Wells velocity was fine last year, at least, earlier in the season when I was paying more attention. I'm under the impression that it was around 89-93 for his 2-seamer. In Boise, he used to top out a bit higher on the 2-seamer (granted, usual caveats about minor league guns, angles, etceteras), which was why I was so fascinated (granted, I recall being very fascinated even when we drafted him, but the Boise reports were really exciting in that, it suggested a true power sinker and there were positive reports on his breaking ball and change-up), but I vaguely recall that there was a concerted effort to try and get him to get more command of his stuff, and that he was asked to pitch at a lower velocity to get more command. Could be wrong, been awhile.

I'm sort of hard-pressed to see either CJ or PJ get the call early enough to lose eligibility. Both guys worked what, 120 innings last year? I doubt they want him to total more than 140-150. Don't get me wrong, I could see them both get called up for a few starts, but I'd be a bit surprised if they lost eligibility. Furthermore, both are significantly more valuable than say, a Jay Jackson or Alberto Cabrera (guys who were starting in the minors and brought up for pen duty, albeit two different circumstances). That said, the idea of 4-5 arms in the top 100 isn't that ridiculous, and two to three in the top 50 isn't that big of a stretch. I'm not huge on Pierce, but I almost think he's been undersold this offseason. If CJ keeps up his performances, he'll keep getting ranked high. Furthermore, if Blackburn can really carry a mid-90's fastball as a starter AND perform, while keeping his "polish"? He's the one guy that I really wonder if he could take a big leap up.

See, anyone that remembers my posts from a couple years ago knows I was huge on Ben Wells (sucker for the frame, action on the fastball, and hoped that a breaking ball would develop) ... but boy ... while there was some promise on the breaking ball back in the day (granted, you could argue that a ton of youngsters have "promise" on their breaking balls at that age, and at that low level), it simply hasn't developed. I hope you are right, though. I think he'll probably get a crack at the rotation in AA (just a hunch, but placing him in the pen seems a bit odd stuff wise... although granted, one of his bigger issues in adjusting as a starter was learning to tamp down his fastball movement, so maybe they let him rip? Still, my guess is that he probably gets a crack at the rotation in AA), but it's sure hard for me to see him dominate unless that breaking ball has taken a significant, significant, significant jump this winter. Here's hoping, though.

Are you completely erasing his TJS and arm troubles? If you did that sure I'd put him above Edwards as a possible #2 starter. But you can't just erase history like you can't erase Olt's problems. But what I'm saying is even with Olt's problems I put him around 11. Having said that Vizciano isn't too far behind because he also has a sliver of hope for upside left in him. The way I compare those two is this - a) A healthy Vizcaino had a higher ceiling and floor, IMO, than Olt. b) So the question is a matter of degree. It's a bit more subjective here, but when I think about Arodys, I am sort of reminded of Hong-Chih Kuo (in the multiple surgery sense). If he's battling back, as all indications are, that's a good first sign. Getting mentally back is easier said than done. I can see arguments either way, but I would lean Vizcaino ahead of Olt.

Depends on the player. In general, I have no issues with it, but we really don't know enough about an individual's makeup to make that judgment. On paper, Javier Baez seems like the type of kid that could probably handle said pressure, particularly the pressure that will happen when he gets in a slump. In the grand scheme of things, I would prefer not to start a guy out in the middle of the lineup, but I'm not against it. There might even be an argument for starting someone out in the 3 spot (something along the lines of potentially seeing better pitches if guys are getting on base enough ahead and there's a legitimate threat behind him).

Is toonster that high on Cabrera? I definitely am and will have him around 20. Not that high. Around 20 seems more reasonable ... I simply don't think it's ridiculous to consider him around 13. Roughly sketching out names, based on the vote trend right now, and I'm guessing I think 16-18 will be where I really vote Cabrera. I think there's a heavy tendency to favor the excitement of the unknown of youth that we often forget that developing a useful upper minors player is difficult enough, let alone a useful upper minors player with some big league potential. I'm probably as guilty as anyone of occasionally putting upside guys in the lower levels ahead at times, but I'm just not sure I see big enough individual upsides, and enough guys with said upside, in the lower levels to downgrade Cabrera to outside of the top 30.

None of these are really bold. Actually, I don't know what would exactly qualify as bold for me. Considering I have no idea what happened to him (other than the few reports of injury; there might've been other reports that I missed), I'll go with Michael Jensen pitching again and getting fast-tracked as a pen arm, ending up in AA by season's end. Along those lines, for all the semi-intrigue about Shawon Dunston Jr. on several sites, wouldn't surprise me if Trey Martin surpassed him again and was in Daytona by season's end. I do like the Bruno prediction above. The boy can hit. Heck, I think he could outhit Darwin Barney if he was put in the bigs this year (admittedly, that isn't saying that much). I really think we might see a pitching bounceback season from someone that fell off the map last year, someone like Starling Peralta or Jose Rosario, but I'm not bold enough to guess who. Although, wouldn't stun me to see both out of the org as well. My gut feeling is that we're going to get a big offensive breakout in Daytona next season from someone out of the Kane County group last year, akin to the Alcantara offensive breakout in Daytona 2 seasons ago, but I wasn't really thinking Contreras, as I think the wear and tear from catching may limit how much of an offensive jump he takes (after all ... he did have a fairly good offensive season last year that I think people somewhat over-look). ___ I'm trying to think "boldly", but ... hmm ... the best I can think of right now is ... uh Eric Jokisch getting at least 5 starts in the bigs? Nah ... how about Carlos Penalver hitting well enough in Kane County to have everyone, temporarily, stop questioning how much offense he will have (that's not really bold ... so, let's go bold, and he'll be a top 15 prospect next year ... do I really believe it? Not really. Could I sorta see some potential of it happening? Sorta ... ). ___ Had snarky comment here about homegrown lineups, but uh, ... realized that I was thinking more positive than negative I predict there's going to be at least one bust of a season in our top 8. Doesn't mean they are done/finished, just not a good year to keep the excitement. Now, considering the expectations with the top 4, it might not be a flat-out horrendous season ... My gut feeling if that happened (and here's hoping it doesn't) is that Almora in A+ would be a possibility, but I could see it as Soler in what I assume will be AA. Wouldn't surprise me if it was Alcantara in AAA, much as I've pushed for him. Baez is always a possibility because of his aggressiveness, but I tend to think he'll be fine in AAA. Actually, I tend to think the Cubs will convince him to move to 3rd early in the year and that he'll pull a Machado and be our starting 3rd baseman by midseason. ___ This isn't bold, but wouldn't shock me if Matt Szczur is our CF at some point this year, and performs passably for expectations. ___ I really do like Trey Masek more than I thought, but I have no idea how bold I can get. I guess I can envision him in A+ by mid-season as a starter, but that doesn't seem all that bold to me. ___ Actually ... thinking about it now, I could easily see Brett Jackson out of the org by season's end ... but it also wouldn't surprise me if he's starting in the bigs (more as a byproduct of our rebuilding) at the end of the season. Short of it is, I wouldn't be stunned if he had a good year. For all the talk about fixing mechanics/tweaking swings, the reality is, more guys fail to do it than succeed at it, due to the difficulties to changing muscle memory. I think back to the tweaking they did with him all year, and like the "instinct"/patient-thinking discussions on some past prospects, it wouldn't surprise me if Brett got bogged down mentally. There shouldn't have been a reason for him to be that bad last year (talent wise, he's really not awful to think last year was an indication of his talent, unless he was mentally out of whack, along with physically trying a new swing).

Just picking one of three posts, so this isn't directed at craig - a) I haven't really pondered any lists this offseason. Actually, I haven't pondered baseball much at all. b) I simply said I would consider him. I probably would. Don't love him, simply think he'll get multiple looks as a big league pen arm during his career because of his stuff (see, say, someone like Marcos Mateo). Here's the thing - this is a mess of names after 10 (and I'm not exactly jumping for joy at 10 either with Candelario). This isn't to say it's bad ... it's a mess of "average"/"somewhat intriguing" options. That's far better than most systems, and in many years past, where we had to stretch to find intrigue outside of the top few spots. So, let me repeat, by "mess", I'm not saying it's bad, as there are obviously guys I like. a) You want to sell me on Arodys? Fine, but I'll counter 2 years of inactivity is as big a question as lack of command. Even if the stuff is back, there has to be legitimate curiosity as to how consistent he is. b) You want to argue Olt? As noted, can I buy it? Fine, but it's not like his K rate was ... good to begin with, and few scouting reports suggested he would be a high average hitter. I don't think it's ridiculous to question how much of a decline he really took because of his eye problems. Basically, I want to see him prove it a bit. There's definitely value in his defense and power. c) I've never loved Hendricks as it pertains to rankings. Simply put, and I've been fairly consistent with guys like this (I think), I just don't see the ceiling because of his stuff, and as such, he really needs to continue to prove it. Off the top, I have never really rated end of the rotation options all that high unless they were coming off some sort of major league stint that proved themselves. Again, he could be good, but he's going to have to prove it to me continuously. Maybe he will. Is it fair? Perhaps not, but it's the way I feel about control guys with average stuff. d) Blackburn - This was actually tempting, but at a certain point, we can talk about raw stuff that a guy has shown, that a guy has potential for, but he has to actually show it consistently. I will say this - considering I tend to place a bit more emphasis on upside, if he can consistently show a fastball in the mid-90's and performance to match, then he should probably be top 10. I've actually grown a bit wary of Candelario. ____ So, it seems like some folks, besides myself, are willing to consider Neil Ramirez in this area. What exactly is the huge difference between Ramirez and Cabrera to mark 3 straight responses about how ridiculous it is to suggest Cabrera in this area? The only major difference, really, is one of knowledge (we "know" Cabrera, we don't "know" Ramirez as well), and one of perception that this brain trust "knows better". (This isn't to say that I think they are equal ... I clearly have Neil ahead). Otherwise, we're looking at two power-armed guys, slightly older for their levels, having both repeated levels, and both are likely destined for the pen. Ramirez has a bit better shot to start, but realistically, betting money, as of right now, would probably be on a future in the pen. Corey Black is also another guy that fits into the same mold in regards to big stuff, command problems, likely destined for the pen. ____ That said, I wasn't locking him into my 3rd spot. I simply said I would consider him. I think I'd be rather stunned if he wasn't picked up by another team and was allowed to go back to Iowa. Teams tend to gamble more on power arms, even in the pen, to at least give them another look. I can see davell's scenario where he gets picked up by a few teams and dropped when a team needs to make a spot for someone else. I'm rather surprised that most of you seem to have him off the top 30. Much as I like the unknown as much as the next guy, the reality is that, for us to get a useful upper minors player out of many of the lower level guys considered in the 10-30 range of our prospects would be a win in its own right, and there aren't many people left that have huge ceilings that have played full-season ball. ____ Metaphorical gun to my head right now, if I had to go with a 3rd name, it would probably be Vizcaino, since the upside was that good. If you wanted to argue Josh Vitters, I wouldn't be against it (I actually think he could obliterate AAA pitching IF he stays healthy ... I'm just not sure how well that translates to the big leagues). Heck, I could buy an argument for Eloy Jimenez here, much as I absolutely loathe the idea (not about Eloy, more just the idea of putting on a young international signing with zero track record stateside).

1. Rob Zastryzny - Yes, this is a benefit of the doubt vote. I'm also not too enthused of anyone to say that they should definitively be ahead of anyone else. That said, college lefty, relatively polished, 3 pitch mix, and solid fastball velo is an enticing mix. 2. Neil Ramirez - I'm not enthused about this either, but he's in the upper levels and has good stuff. The way I'm thinking about it right now is that the mid-rotation potential plus that his fallback is a possible power pen arm gives him the slight edge. Only voted for 2 ... 3. I'm really not sure. My concern with Olt is that, while I think the vision problems might've impacted his K rate a bit and might've impacted his contact a bit ... how much did it impact it? Coming off such a bad season, even with the excuse of his eyes, it's just hard for me to really argue that he deserves to be ahead of Zastrzyny and Ramirez in my head. Can I buy it? Sure, I just don't believe in it. Then, there's Arodys. I liked Arodys better than Teheran way back in the day, but this is coming off of 2 years of inactivity. Ramirez has quality power stuff, not Arodys level, but the argument to put him ahead, just can't do it. Again, can buy it. I'm not sure what my route would be, since I haven't pondered it much, for option C. If I had to put a name for 3rd, I would go "off" the list of discussed names and consider Alberto Cabrera to be in the mix.

Perhaps. Physically, he has always looked the part of a .300/25 HR type of guy. That said, prior to the PCL, his last really solid power season was in Low A. Is he coming into his own, and untapping his power? I never bothered to look at his PCL splits, so maybe there's a case for that, as the age range is right for him to be untapping his power. Still, I have my doubts with everything we've seen about him coming up. Here's hoping he proves me wrong, as that would be a nice asset to have in the upper levels.

I think Jimenez was ranked high by BA, off the top, although someone with a BA subscription would be able to answer that. As for Rivero, I think he'll likely see the bigs this year. I think he could be very good in the pen. That said, define "miss". I can't see an argument for him in the top 9 (for me, but likely top 10, as Villanueva will likely lose to Candelario here). Stuff wise, he's fairly comparable to say, an Alberto Cabrera out of the pen. Probably better than Alberto (Secondaries seem like they are sharper), based on everything we know, but not ridiculously better. I just can't rank a power pen arm ahead of a potential young 3rd baseman likely to be in AAA that has a chance to be at least a 2nd division starter, unless said pen arm is elite, and I'm not sure we have enough to make that judgment right now. If you want to argue Rivero ahead of Candelario, I can actually sort of buy that. I wouldn't myself, but I can see a case for that. After 10, it's somewhat of a crapshoot/mix, so I could see him fall anywhere after that, and I think that is fair for a power pen arm that we know enough about, but don't know a ton about. Edit: Totally missed that Villanueva caught up to Candelario. If it ends up tied and I'm not around, add my "3rd" vote to Candelario (other two were, as of now, Villanueva and Ramirez). I'm holding off on the hopes Villanueva stays ahead, but if it's tied and we're headed to a run-off, might as well skip that.

Do you have Pineyro higher than him? I've got Black ahead of him personally. I would put both around the same area. I simply haven't pondered a full list that much, but it's essentially rating a higher ceiling arm, but likely destined for the pen, versus a guy with better starting potential, but not a high starting potential ceiling (at best, Pineyro is probably a mid-rotation ceiling). I haven't pondered it all that much strike throwing guys who lack high ceilings tend to have to prove themselves to me on the way up, so my hunch is that I would slide Corey Black ahead slightly on the off-chance of something surprising happening. That said, Pineyro probably has a bit more "growth" potential to him than Black, so really, I could see a case either way. I think Pineyro's fastball would play up a bit more out of the pen, so one could argue that the difference between the two out of the pen isn't that substantial, and hence, Pineyro's better starting potential would get the nod. As for Vitters, my hunch is that I would have him in the top 30, but probably on the last few slots (again, haven't pondered it much this winter). My issue with putting him higher really has little to do with how I felt about him before, and more to do with the fact that he's now a full-time LF, and I'm just not sold on his power being elite enough. Dunno, I really haven't thought about it much. I can see a case for him higher than late 20's, though. There's a lot of intriguing upside guys in the lower levels right now that simply won't become a useful upper minors player, so to rank them ahead, they would have to have superb ceilings, and there's really only a handful of guys that I would feel that way about.

I haven't decided on the top 3 yet, but I'm set on Villanueva at 9. Now, I'm actually not huge on him but the profile (upper level, young 3rd baseman with a plus glove, solid pop; has shown improvement climbing up the ladder, particularly power wise; numbers and scout suggest the approach is decent enough) seems more attractive than the other options. I like Candelario, but he's a good 2 levels below (assuming A+ vs. AAA), isn't the defensive player at 3rd that Villanueva is (and doesn't project to be, even in a best case scenario), power is still projection and the power projections don't suggest someone that will have significantly more power than Villanueva in a best case. Candelario's one plus is that he should hit for a higher average, but considering the level difference, I just don't know if the upside is significantly better to bump him ahead of a guy 2 levels higher. Olt's coming off a bad season. As much as I still am relatively intrigued with him, it's just hard for me to put him ahead of Villanueva, when both should be in AAA. I really couldn't think of anyone else as a justifiable argument (this isn't to say that Olt/Candelario would fill out my top 3 votes ... those are the names that people have argued in this area). I'm thinking Candelario and I sort of like the idea of Neil Ramirez there, tbh.

I like that the top 3, even the low end "realistic projection" is Baez, First division all-star. Bryant first-division player, Almora above average player. And the potential grade is Perennial all-star for Baez, all-star for Bryant, and first-division/all-star for Almora. And people worry about bust rates. I think "bust" for one of these guys is, maybe one just ends up being an average ball-player. Think we have at-least 2 multi year all-stars on our hands here. that is not how prospects work It is how it works for our top 3. Baez, Bryant, and Almora are all going to be at the VERY least, average major leaguers. They are all in what I consider that top tier of position prospects. I hate being the wet blanket, or whatever the phrase is that's slipping my mind right now, but to say "at the VERY least" they will be average major leaguers seems to be stretching it. I hope that happens, but there have been a ton of prospects where their "realistic role" projections/low end projections were supposed to be pretty solid, but they never panned out. Off the top, when Brandon Wood was coming up and "hot", I don't recall many low-end projections for him that didn't think he would at least be in the majors. Well, that didn't happen. Guys busting/not meeting projections happens a ton. Sometimes it's injuries, and sometimes, with a guy in A ball, they just don't develop. I hope you are right, and that all three are at least "average major leaguers", but in all honesty, I'll be happy if one of them pans out as a regular. I hope for better, obviously. For fun, let's pick out a Red Sox year (since Theo was there). Since we typically talk about 3-4 years as the appropriate time to assess prospects in a system, let's look at the Red Sox post-2009 lists: BA Top 10: 1. Ryan Westmoreland, of 2. Casey Kelly, rhp 3. Josh Reddick, of 4. Lars Anderson, 1b 5. Ryan Kalish, of 6. Junichi Tazawa, rhp 7. Reymond Fuentes, of 8. Anthony Rizzo, 1b 9. Jose Iglesias, ss 10. Derrik Gibson, ss/2b Link to BP post 2009 list: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9762 Westmoreland was an unfortunate situation. The rest is a mixed bag as of now, and we're 4+ years after this list was done. Crap happens all the time. You hope for the best for all, and certainly our top 3 right now is thought of, talent wise, as better than that trio, but crap happens. I believe the above lists were a year after Lars Anderson was considered a stud prospect and Michael Bowden was still highly thought of at the time.

I got to admit, there's a part of me that is tempted to vote Villanueva here ahead of Vogelbach. I didn't, but the plus defense at 3rd, improved power ... it's tempting because of Vogelbach's limitations. As a side note, is Rivero on here as an option because someone feels that way about him, or is he on here just to fill things out? I like Rivero, I think he'll see the bigs this year ... but I've got a tough time buying him anywhere in the top 10.