toonsterwu

I'm going to be rather surprised if we add a lot more than CJ Edwards. Now, there tends to be more than 1 add, so sure, someone else will be put on, but realistically, the question has to be, who is going to stick a whole year on another squad? There are occasional gambles like Wei-Chung Wang, who the Brewers took partly because their expectations weren't high and they thought they could sneak him on the 25 long enough. They did, but they essentially wasted a spot for awhile there. I'm saying this because I have a tough time seeing many teams thinking that Pineyro can stick on a 25 for long enough, sans injury. In terms of arms, typically pen arms of high ceiling guys get plucked. Aside from Edwards and maybe Pineyro, I don't see a ton to worry about. There's guys I like, but if they get picked, you wish them the best. For example, now that he's full time pen, wouldn't be surprised if someone gambled on Starling Peralta again, but at this point, okay. None of the other arms worry me, and unless Frank Batista picked up velocity I wasn't aware of, he really shouldn't be a concern. Could I see the Cubs make a "surprise" pen protect? Sure ... someone like Cervenka perhaps wouldn't stun me, but no one screams, gotta protect. Maybe Blake Cooper's small sample size as a Cubs farmhand caught enough of an eye. No one really screams must protect to me, but it doesn't mean guys won't get plucked, as all it takes is one scout with some fascination. Wouldn't stun me if someone like Zych might still have some scouts intrigued. Positionally, I still have mild fascination with Marco Hernandez (and multiple folks still suggest h has some trade value, I think Kiley this winter, BA or BP last), so maybe a team takes him as a util if they don't have expectations on offense. If so ... okay. If he develops, then you tip your cap to that org for developing him. Same goes for Contreras, who seems to have made strides but is still too raw and too far away. I mean, there really isn't anyone with a standout individual tool (such as speed) that one could forsee them as a possible bench option). Doesn't mean these guys won't become major leaguers (heck, never really thought Josh Harrison would have that good of a year), but you tip your cap and move on if they do. And no, I have no idea why I keep saying tip your cap.

SCS, you could view it in a separate prism, namely that by collecting positional talents, this current leadership is making the "safe bet". I don't think this can be boiled down to a "Hendry" move or a "new style" move. Teams need depth, and to expect this move to be more than that right now is probably expecting too much. Actually, to expect this move to be even Luis Valbuena is expecting too much. Perhaps it happens and LaStella becomes a passable starter, but I don't think the expectations game should be anywhere near there as of now. Edit: All organizations collect "safe" guys and collect "ceiling" guys. One could argue that the touted Red Sox system (one that I still think is over-hyped a bit) is more "safe" than "ceiling" (a case could be made that there isn't that much ceiling (that is, top of the rotation potential) arms (to be quite honest, I'm not sure Eduardo Rodriguez won't end up being better than Henry Owens), and then the debate would come down to a handful of positional talents, and some are ridiculously raw, while others have limited ceilings (Swihart might be the exception, but it's always tougher to play expectation games with backstops due to the wear and tear.

I want to dislike the trade, but realistically, it's just a small move that seems bigger because of who Arodys was once upon a moon. My gut would've preferred to just wait a bit longer on Arodys, but realistically, he's not the Arodys of old right now, and might never be. I think it speaks more to Arodys declining value and the uselessness of the bonus slots for us this year than it does speak to anything about LaStella. I'm not huge on LaStella, but he provides a decent bench option or upper level positional depth that, in a pinch, could start some games.

That was a good read, and probably better than some of the paid stuff I've seen in the past. - I really am fascinated with Caratini (in retrospect, I might've been too giddy at the trade deadline, as looking back at my post then, I don't know if I love him that much). Fascinated that Kiley put him 13th ... and yet ... says there won't even be average power (and I don't know projections that put him as a high average hitter). IIRC, there were some power projections out of college ... and I believe that while with Atlanta last year, his away line actually showed a decent ISOP. I actually don't know if I would have such a big gap between Caratini and Zagunis/Contreras, as Kiley seems to have a big gap there. Awful nice to see some interesting hitting prospects, and I'll be curious if Caratini's bat can take a step forward in, what I presume to be, Myrtle Beach next year. - Vogelbach at 11 sort of has me a bit surprised. Not ... shocked ... but while I haven't pondered the system in a long time, wasn't certain I would think of him as top 11. - I sort of found it interesting that Mejia and Tseng were ranked back to back - a huge upside arm vs. a high floor pitchability guy. His velocities on Tseng seem a bit better than what BA had, off the top, and those numbers ... you can sort of see a fringe mid-rotation arm if things fall right. - Curious about the massive differences in Zastryzny's reported velocities. IIRC (and I might be off), didn't he start slow and finish sort of ... okay/solid? - So can someone tell me if Trey Martin's swing is still a slap-happy, flat-ish swing, as that was what I recalled of him. If he's made some swing changes, I'll be fascinated how the offense plays. Curious if he goes to South Bend or bumps up to Myrtle. - I really didn't know Perakslis hit 97 late in the year. Kept wondering what kept him interesting enough to get innings and work ... and that sounds interesting. - On a personal curiosity note, I would be very curious what type of trade value Kiley thinks Marco Hernandez has (more, what Kiley means by it). I was really fascinated with him, and the few reports I've seen of late seem to still suggest he has what made me intrigued with him (solid to good defensively, and a bat with some potential), but it's really hard for me to imagine him as a key piece to ... anything ... unless he breaks out at some point. Good read. Wonder how Kiley being at fangraphs will end up impacting the other services and their reports (guessing not much, as they have established brands, but still, they could parcel out a bit more stuff for free without really denting things. I recall when they used to give a couple top prospect reports at BA a long time ago ... the Angel Guzman one comes to mind).

I know I've never been the highest on Almora, but a part of me hears "Aaron Rowand" and thinks ... eh? Of course, the logical part of me says that to get an Aaron Rowand type player is a solid outcome ... but still. The Schwarber quotes sure make things exciting, and it would really open the door on options for the organization. If he's that good, that should open up opportunities for us, in a variety of ways. There's definitely no rush though ... keep him at the C/LF thing for the next year, and see how things go for him, and everyone else.

Honestly, at first glance, it looks like it was an absolutely loaded MWL season of folks that qualified. The back end of the top 20 looks a bit shaky (I sort of fell like I would take Underwood over Bird ... and I actually like Bird a fair amount ... but both are raw, upside kids ... ). Don't really love the Kubitza ranking there ... and sort of think Mitch Brown should be a bit higher. Hmm ... feels like if Tseng is more a guy that tops out low-mid-90's, he probably still wouldn't crack the top 10 of this list.

Looking online, they had a report in the spring with Tseng 89-93 with intriguing secondary stuff. I find this one to be a bit odd, and I hope someone gets a chance to follow up with say, Manuel/Callis/Law ... anyone, on it. IIRC, these league reports are based off discussions with scouts/coaches across each league ... so I gotta think they had multiple bad reports on Tseng ... which makes it a bit more troubling.

ouch. I've been a bit busy to follow too closely this year, but if they've got enough solid reports on that fastball velo ... even leaving aside the declaration of a lack of a plus pitch ... then I can't fault them for it. I thought his velo was a touch higher, , but 88-90 would put him in Hendricks range, and in "show me" mode for rankings (that is, gonna have to keep proving himself on his way up). When you factor in that they don't think he has a plus pitch, then I completely understand their ranking of Tseng. Odd, really thought there were some reports on low 90's. I don't know how much I ever bought into touching mid-90's, but thought he was steady low 90's.

Without knowing the list, I'm a bit limited in perspective right now. That said, looks like JJ Cooper did this list, and he's probably one of the better and known guys there. On the whole, I think it's odd ... to say the least, that Tseng isn't in the top 20, but fundamentally, I don't disagree with the basic premise of prioritizing stuff over command/pitchability this far away. It's not as if Tseng has an end of the rotation ceiling ... he's probably got mid-rotation ceiling for the projections right now. That said, really would need to see an entire list to know how I feel about the omission. Off the top, seemed like a good prospect year, comparatively, in the MWL this year. Gotta think someone asked about Tseng in the chat? The idea of Underwood ahead of Tseng ... it doesn't bother me that much, although I wouldn't agree with it. Mildly curious if anything was said on Shawon Dunston Jr. Was never a huge fan, but he hit really well in the 2nd half, and I wonder if there's a big breakout happening next year for him.

I'm mildly perplexed at their Clifton comments - if Clifton has more projection, throws harder, didn't perform poorly ... how did he not make the list at all? Seems odd ... seems like they are making an argument for the significance of strike throwing at that low of a level, and while that is important, I'd almost always take superior raw stuff (for rankings) when discussing prospects that far away. Who did this list (not that it matters that much, just curious if there's anything we can compare it against as it pertains to their past preferences)? I don't get BA anymore ... just see online that it says a Brian Murphy (not sure who that is), but Manuel is doing the chat?

Amaya behind the plate is a fascinating move. Has the size, skillset to wonder about defensive potential there, although admittedly, had never pondered it until reading about it now. Wonder if it's "permanent" or more to build up his range of options (someone correct me if I'm wrong, but off the top, I seem tor recall Bruno dabbling at catcher at instructs last year ... ?). He probably could have stayed at 2nd for another year, but long run, he was going to run into the Cubs logjam of middle infield options ahead him. Add in Bruno likely slotting ahead of him in the pecking order, and this does create some options for him. Could be a Clevenger/Chirinos type move as he has the ability, and his bat would be mildly intriguing behind the dish (I still think he has a bit more pop, but at a certain point ... if it doesn't materialize ... hard to expect it ... that said, it's not like offensive standards, particularly for catchers, are that high). Of course, there are some catching options behind him that I'm somewhat intrigued with, so it's not like this move jumps him to the had of the list. I imagine if this is a long-term move, he'd probably go onto some extended/Eugene type track, maybe South Bend, for next year. Anyhow, an intriguing move, to say the least.

As a side note on the whole Caratini thing, he's played in a park that really suppresses homers in Rome. I actually hadn't looked at the numbers in awhile, but looking at it now, his splits show that he's actually hit for solid pop on the road this year (better than I would expect at this stage), but has been abysmal at home, power wise.

Ceiling's a potential first division starter. I like him a lot, more than most probably, but it is a long way to go, and a lot can happen, but I think the package suggests that he could be a top catching prospect if he puts it together. Edit: Originally had a comment about how I thought Zagunis was a decent comp, but more I think about it, it doesn't make sense. I do think he has a higher ceiling than Zagunis, and both aren't certain to stick behind the dish, but not the best comp.

If one views him as someone that can't stick behind the plate long run, then his value is awfully low. It'd be Bruno-ish value, a guy who could be good, but is hard to rate awful high unless he keeps performing as the skillset wouldn't really demand it.

Braves system is pretty bad these days. A lot of Braves fans will argue that it's because a lot of youngsters are in the bigs, and that is sort of true, but they've had a down cycle in terms of missing on some key picks.

Wow. I respect your opinion more than most on this site when it comes to prospects. What makes you so high on Caratini? Have you seen him a lot? Hearing things from other scouts? Just curious... Defensive skills is simply based off what's out there. It's early in the transition, but looks good so far. Bat wise, have heard a lot of positives on handle and approach, but keep hearing he shows more power in BP. To be fair, really far away, so a lot can go wrong, but that far away allows for some positive dreaming, and even if 50% comes true, that's a lot to be excited with. I think that

I'm typing on my phone, which I hate doing, so sorry about the bad spelling and so forth. That said, I saidit was relative to the talent involved. The Shark trade was great, but it sort of should be (and yes, I think that trade shows the benefit of striking early these days. I don't think the Price trade is bad (Adames C Could be special). That said, I really like Caratini. I think he can stick behind the plate and I think he'll develop some pop and hit enough. For Rusell, Bonifacio, and cash ... I think this is an awesome return that I did not expect. I think he's top 20 with a chance to be top 15, maybe borderline top10 in our system.

Love this trade. I always liked russell a bit more than I shoulld, but turnning russell and bonifacio into a good catching prospect with pop? awesome ... might be my favorite deal of ths regime's run when you factorin the talent involved.I

I am not against the idea of trading Castro, as I've said I fully expect the FO to make a trade at some point, but there's simply no need to trade Castro now, particularly not when he's been slumping a bit. He's still one of the better overall shortstops in the league, not yet in his prime, and on a relatively friendly deal. More importantly, you need a bit of time to see how some the pieces shake out.

I think this was a nice gamble, although I don't really like Cameron's comparison of this as "Arrieta 2.0". Doubront never had anywhere near Arrieta's stuff, and Doubront's ceiling was really more of a mid-rotation guy, with a more realistic positive outcome as an end of the rotation option. Maybe North is right that his velocity decline is due to arm-slot, and maybe it can be fixed, but if so, I'd find it a bit odd that the Red Sox couldn't address that. It does sound like the Red Sox simply decided to throw in the towel on him, as they needed a roster spot to take Lester's place, and Doubront's whining and possible tanking simply made the decision easy for them. I think he's better than Wood/Russell, but I'm not sure how much better. That said, it's definitely a gamble worth taking as all indications are that we didn't give up much (realistically, we have some mildly interesting Rule 5 eligible guys that may not be protected this offseason ... but it feels like the return might be just a scrap heap type of guy).

While DePaula is ... intriguing enough, I'm not a big enough fan to think that giving him up is some sort of bad deal. That said, Headley wasn't going to get much now. Overall, I think it sort of works for both sides - a good gamble for the Yankees for one year without giving up any key long term asset, a decent enough arm with upside for the Padres for a declining, costly player.

As much as I want to dislike Luhnow's approach to things, I find it hard to blame him in this situation if the reports that Aiken has less UCL (or whatever is the medically correct term) than most people is true. The problem, with the situation, if I have one, is that Luhnow shouldn't have come to a verbal agreement so quickly on other overslots (namely Nix) unless he was certain he had the full 1-1 slot to work with (that is, Aiken was signed down). The chances of Aiken getting 5 mil, or whatever was offered, in the future seems slim. This really might work out better for the Astros, as they might end up with a good college pitcher to replace what was lost with Aiken, and a bundle of room to make a ton of moves with. They should "own" next year's draft if they play it right.

I'd be surprised if they don't get another look by another MLB organization before they have to head overseas. This isn't ... Micah Hoffpauir (age-related) or Matt Murton (someone who really didn't have the "pedigree" of these two guys). They are still only 25 and 26 ... 1st round busts tend to get extra looks before they have to go abroad, and it's not like these two have the track-record that a Japanese team is going to offer a bundle to convince them to go.

Alcantara's arm, to the best of my recollection from those days, was above average, perhaps plus, but it certainly wasn't the caliber of Baez's arm. I think there is probably a debatable case between Alcantara or Castro, but I would probably lean towards Castro having the stronger arm. The arm was a bit scattershot, though (to be fair, though, what strong-armed shortstop isn't labeled scattershot at some point in their youth? ... I really can't think of any guy off the top). Alcantara had solid lateral range, maybe plus, but it's been awhile so I'm hesitant to label it. The issues were with footwork. Short of it is, he was a guy who had the range and arm strength to stay at short. I wouldn't say he had elite defensive potential (there was a reason someone like Marco Hernandez was hyped up by more than myself back in the day ... he had more natural shortstop defensive ability). He might never have developed the instincts/reactions/footwork, but we'll never really know now. The interesting debate on the future comes down to who they bet on, as you can slide guys around to slot in places as the bats are all potentially good enough.

I think his future is a fascinating thing to follow. I remember when I was the only one talking him up (and warily at that) a few years back ... and yet, there's a part of me that wonders he's a bit over-hyped now. That said, he's a very good talent, someone I still think can play short for a lot of big league systems (and a part of me still wonders if a team that lacks a future at shortstop might want to consider him ... ). For us, it's 2nd or CF, and I think one of the more interesting debates will be whether or not a producing Albert Almora (assuming he does perform and produce on the way up) is better than Arismendy Alcantara in CF if Alcantara learned CF well enough to be solid defensively there. I mean, as hyped up as Almora was by some as a smooth CF, Alcantara's tools are arguably similar, if not better in some areas.