toonsterwu

UVA's going to need to go on a very good streak to get in the tournament, but if they do, they are going to be a dangerous seed on the road, assuming Kirby is healthy. That said, the lineup's coming together (Coman's settling in, McCarthy's back), the pen looks to have enough pieces ahead of Sborz now ... and if Jones/Waddell can settle down (and Jones arguably pitched his best game of the year today), this UVA team starts to look like the team that people expected preseason - solid enough offense to go with good pitching. They put themselves in this hole ... but if they can sneak in with a healthy Kirby, they'll be scary for any team, anywhere.

Yeah, the suspicion seems to be that he's been dinged up for awhile. I wouldn't be surprised if they gave him an extended break (then again, with UVA borderline to reach the post-season ... although it was a good win with Miami and the lineup is as close to full strength as we'll have for this season (LaPrise isn't making it back). We'll have to see next time out if it's anything serious. Early this year, he was looking real good.

Not yet for me. More in the Sands group for me of guys who could be there in a year or two.

Leaving aside TINSTAAPP, IMO, really, as of now, no one is, but CJ Edwards and Duane Underwood are the only ones with said potential, but CJ has to answer the question of whether or not he can handle it physically, and Duane has to show consistency/command/control as he moves up the ladder. There are obviously youngsters with potential, but development wise, aren't there. For example, if all goes well, it's not hard to imagine Carson Sands as a potential TOR type a year or two down the line. The problem is ... this is true for a lot of systems if you are going to separate TOR vs "2", "3" guys. Stinnett might have a bit more ceiling, but I lump him in with Pierce Johnson as mid-rotation-ish ceilings who might end up better than the guys above them, but simply don't have the ceiling to really dream on. There's nothing wrong with those types of arms, though. Chris Tillman is over-rated, but he's a capable starter.

I imagine OleMissCub probably followed Coghlan at Ole Miss a bit. He is right about Coghlan's history - he was blocked by Uggla(nem, he wasn't blocked at 3rd ... when he came up Emilio Bonifacio was their 3rd baseman that year.) They tried him in CF, I think, which was a mistake, and he's been a corner OF/util type guy when his bat was decent enough. Off the top, I don't think the reviews of Coghlan at 3rd base in the minors was all that great. * I'm mildly curious why Coghlan was never tried at 3rd, since OleMissCub thought he was a good 3rd baseman in college. My recollection was mediocre reviews of efforts to try him at 3rd i the minors, but I don't follow the Marlins that closely. Looking at the Marlins history then, Bonifacio was the starter at 3rd. An argument for defense wouldn't make a ton of sense, with Uggla at 2nd ... ? They had Matt Dominguez in the system at the time, but he was only entering A+ in 2009, too far away that a short term move to have Coghlan at 3rd wouldn't make sense. Anyhow, probably will forget about this soon. I buy the bat being a useful/solid bat, and I think he's a decent short term starter who can almost be a fit at any point in the lineup. Long run, I think he should be utilized as more of a super-util guy.

It's 26 AB's. Look, Ross isn't going to hit for much, in all likelihood. Montero probably won't get back to his peak offensive days of several years back, but I think he should be able to do something similar to what he did last year. It's not impossible that the wear and tear of catching further decreases his offense, but I think it's too early to assume that he's fallen off a cliff. It feels like Ross won't be in there as a regular, for now, unless Lester is in. Although ... I'm not against giving Castillo an extra start each week.

I was referencing more that he had a decent 2008 as a starter at 2 levels before moving to the pen. Granted, there were those out of college that viewed him as a pen arm, but I would've liked to see them keep grooming him for another year or so as a starter to see if anything would click for him. Looking at the numbers, as I really don't recall the situation that well, he had a monstrously ugly ERA as a starter in AA in 2008, and didn't do that well in 2009, which probably led them to shift him as a result. Still, the K and BB rates were decent, and the long ball issue seemed to hurt him more than anything in AA, at least, at a quick scan at the numbers. It's quite possible he wouldn't have done squat if he continued developing as a starter, but I did wonder. I really wouldn't have remembered his 2011 rotation shot if you hadn't mentioned it and he was pretty horrific, although I would contend that extra rotation developmental time in the minors would've made the situation completely different (not that he would've done anything with it ... just that the situation would've been different). Anyhow, there's no point in even remotely considering it now, as we don't need to waste time on that. If he makes it up, it's because he can do something in the pen. In all honesty, I think he's waived if he isn't up in AAA (that is, I don't really see them using a AA (or lower) spot for him).

This group doesn't seem to be as heavy on declared piggybacks as the previous regime. I sort of liked the heavy piggybacking down on the lower levels. I mean, back in the Hendry era, we ran 3 declared piggybacks in the Midwest League, and occasionally 4, while I seem to recall a year or two where we had 2 declared piggybacks in Daytona (memory could be shoddy ... could be a situation where some guys simply couldn't go long and they had specific pen roles for situations ...). I guess if I have any point with that is that we should wait and see on Martinez's usage early-on. It's certainly possible, if not likely, that he gets 2-3 innings per outing, and consistently, akin to a piggyback, and perhaps they simply preferred to have certain guys start games. ______ That said, I guess I'm not too upset or broken up about Martinez in the pen. Admittedly, I'm not sure if he can pump up the fastball out of the pen (I would assume so, but you never know), and so his value, due to arsenal and stuff, might fit better as a starter. Not sure, but it's the start of the year, and I'm not going to be too worried about the early-goings (although ... I guess I'm being somewhat hypocritical, as I am sort of annoyed with the CJ Edwards to the pen role - if they were concerned about innings, they could "start" him and yank him early as well ... more than anything, would love to have Edwards work on all his offerings to keep options available, whereas I worry he may slim down his options out of the pen ... any reports on his outing and what he was throwing?)

I would never rule anything out ... That said, as noted by everyone ... I don't see this happening anytime soon. Now ... if Addison came up and established himself at short ... maybe they get a bit more creative. Problem is, if Starlin's healthy, I don't think Addison comes up at short. As fangraphs noted, unless Javier Baez gets untracked, there's no log-jam to be concerned with as of now. _____ to sneaky's question on Gausman/Salazar/Smyly if it was just one of them, plus guys a clear notch or two below ... i wouldn't consider it ... if it's one of those arms plus another high quality asset or two ... i'd consider Salazar and Smyly ... I'm still a bit wary on Gausman's breaking ball and would need him to "prove" it first ... put it another way, i'd rank it Salazar/Smyly ... and Gausman a bit further down

It's a minor league deal. It's fine. As a side note, and it's certainly too late to try now, but I always thought the Cubs were too hasty in moving him to the pen. With his arsenal depth and lack of a big weapon, he felt like the "classic" end of the rotation/"long man" pitchability lefty. Anyhow, I imagine if he's up in the bigs, it's because something's changed. If not, I imagine he'll be one of the many arms in XST until he isn't. I guess they could bump him to AAA at some point, but if he's in AA or lower, I'd be rather disappointed that he's taking up space a youngster could use.

I wonder if he's a "wait until someone gets called up and then you are in the rotation" guy. Of course, I really hope Stinnett does so well that he forces his way to MB. _____ Total side note - finally got on TCR, and completely did not realize that Scott Frazier came down with the yips. And AzPhil's response indicated Ben Wells was yips as well. Bard, that wasn't surprising. _____ Very happy with Stinnett's and Underwood's starts Amaya with 3 walks - yeah, he should be fine there, but it's still nice to see Jeffrey Baez cranking a homer - his power seems like it should talked about a lot more than it is Penalver slapping 3 hits - any offense from him, and comparisons to Jose Igelsias aren't ... ridiculous ... of course, a long way to go Schwarber's 2 walks Still hate CJ Edwards in the pen ... the save bullets talk seems like BS ... that said, his frame has long been an issue Fun start to the year.

I have sort of a hard time calling them "biggish" deals. Skulina was a nice arm, but I don't think anyone had any illusions about him. General feeling was that he had a nice frame, a couple solid pitches, but ceiling was probably a mid-rotation arm. Conway a biggish deal? Not sure about that, since Conway was viewed as more a pen type out of the draft. McNeil was a bit more a sleeper type when he was drafted. I guess it comes down to how one defines "biggish deal".

Assuming Cubs doctors feel okay enough to draft him (and okay enough doesn't necessarily mean they feel great ... ), I'd be fine with that gamble. A long way to go, but I look at how the Nats have taken gambles that have kept their system strong despite so many graduations and I'm comfortable with going that route ... assuming Aiken doesn't ask for some ridiculous amount.

Really hoping Stinnett gets off to a good start. It's still a bit disappointing seeing him in SB, although it isn't the biggest deal. Pretty excited about this year. When I get back stateside, I really hope to catch Myrtle Beach when they work their way up the East Coast. It's been a couple years since I've since a Cubs farm team live.

Free agent signee. Was with the Padres last season in the bigs/AAA. 25. I remember him a bit because he was Bryce Harper's "staff ace" in at JuCo, IIRC. The reports are your "standard" sinker guy in the low 90's with decent secondary offerings (but none as a put-away pitch). 5th starter/rotation depth type, IMO, although I guess he's still young enough that if a secondary offering can be improved upon ...

That was my recollection as well - they had a choice of Archer/McNutt and a choice between Chirinos/Castillo (to go along with Lee/Fuld). I'm not certain any reporter ever said that as a fact, but at the very least, I'm pretty sure that's what the rumors indicated.

I voted (not in any order) a) Candelario - Last vote, I threw him in there as a spur of the moment thing. More I think about it, more I'm comfortable with putting him here. Sure, he may never tap into his offensive potential, and sure, he hasn't exactly shined enough to really get excited about. Still ... most acknowledge that the offensive potential that was clamored about in Rookie ball is still there, and he is only 21 in A+. At a certain point, he has to have the performance to justify being someone of interest. I don't think he's necessarily at that point in his career where potential is less intriguing than performance history, though, and thus, I like the profile here as a mid-teens positional asset. b) Rivero - To be honest, I think I keep finding ways to push him down because he is a pen arm. He's a good pen arm, unless I missed something this spring, and he's ahead of a guy like Corey Black for the pen. He feels like he has solid late inning potential, unlike some other righty arms in the system that feel like guys who would top out as 7th inning types. I keep wondering i) Will Trey Martin ever break out? It looks like he should have a decent shot at PT in SB. It seems like people are still intrigued with him. IIRC, the criticism on his bat was that it was more of a slashing swing that didn't generate much power. I'll be curious until there's no reason to be curious. This is sort of make-or-break for him - all the potential in the world doesn't takeaway the fact that he's 22. ii) Is it fair to put Szczur up there based off the spring? This is my issue with late rankings - we have the spring to look back upon, but prior to the spring ... I'm not sure he would be in the top 20 for most. Look, if this Szczur is real ... he's a top 10-ish guy - the guy Jim Hendry thought he could be, the guy they hope Jacob Hannemann can develop into. I get the votes for him, but I'm sticking with a pre-Spring attitude for the voting. iii) I think Jeffrey Baez will get CF time in SB. I mean, his competition is Martin basically, and they can find a way for them to all get time (and I guess Crawford ... I guess it's possible they just have Crawford/Martin for CF and keep Baez in a corner role, but my guess is they'll give him some time there. Maybe I'm wrong ... and I haven't followed spring news (can't get AzPhil here ... for some reason, TCR blocks me from here). If I thought for one moment Jeffrey Baez could play CF long run, I would love to rank him higher. I think he might be the guy with the most under-appreciated tool in the system. His power, by most accounts, is legit.

I'm still sort of surprised that Harrison made it up as a regular. Always had a decent enough bat, but when he was in our system, I really thought he was headed towards that utility player situation. Dunno, looking at his numbers now, they look pretty solid up the ladder, so maybe my perspective was a bit ... tilted. Biggest surprise is still probably Casey McGehee, but I guess that goes to show how hard catching can be, as he only sort of took off after moving to 3rd. Flaherty's in there until Hardy's healthy. He just doesn't fit the profile of a guy who is going to hold a regular job for any extended period, IMO. Just doesn't make enough contact, and he's not a good defensive option at any spot. Great bench type player, though - some pop, able to handle a lot of defensive spots.

I don't have a big issue with the deal. Fangraphs did an article about Porcello's pay awhile ago, and it made plenty of sense. He's young, he's been durable, and he's had 3 solid, fairly consistent years. To be quite honest, I'm really fascinated how he does in Boston as I've always questioned if Detroit's development of him hampered him a bit. Furthermore, Boston's IF defense should be better than what he's had to deal with in Detroit. Sounds like a solid deal for Porcello as well in that, he gets 4 years of quality pay, and hits the market at 31. If he's healthy, he should be in line for one more solid 3-4 year deal.

Yeah, all indications are they won't move Bundy. There's a decent chance he'll be in the bigs by season's end. They were ultra-careful with him in his return last year. I don't think Gausman's available, but I think there's a greater chance they move Gausman than Bundy.

Personally, I think this is a really solid deal for the Braves. You get a quality arm talent in return, an intriguing lottery ticket positional asset, and a nice pick, plus you get rid of the 3rd year of Upton's deal cost-wise. They are clearly looking to the future, and I'm not sure how much more a top closer should get than that.

I "get" the deal from the Padres perspective, I guess. Kimbrel is good. That said, Wisler was a really nice looking prospect with 2 potential plus pitches, and if they don't win now, they better really hit home runs with international signings/draft, as their farm is incredibly thin. To be quite honest, I've said for a few years now that I thought the Padres system was over-hyped badly in recent years, and in some respects, I sort of ... not admire, but appreciate what Preller is doing - trying to go for the gold now and restocking the system with better talent than the mess of ... mediocrity ... that the previous regimes left him. Still ... I don't like this deal from the Padres perspective. If they run into trouble mid-season, they better hope some key assets have developed to help them make trades to fill holes. I like this deal from the Braves perspective. They are, whether they care to acknowledge it or not, looking forward, and I'd rather have Maybin (and dfa'd Quentin) for 2 years than Melvin Upton for 3 years. More importantly, they get another quality pitching asset into the system. Kimbrel's value as a closer, for the rebuilding Braves over the next 2 years, is worth it, IMO to get Wisler, Paroubeck, and a pick in there. Paroubeck has some intriguing upside as well, and could be a nice asset within a few years.

Wieters is a free agent after next season. That said, they have a top catching prospect in Chance Sisco. They like Caleb Joseph defensively, so I don't suspect they'd go big after a catcher (beyond that, it's not really in Duquette's recent style to go big after someone). Not being in the States right now, I don't have a great feel for why they moved him to the pen. I know Orioles fans prefer him in the rotation, rather than having Miguel Gonzalez there. Looking at their calendar, there aren't that many days they really need a 5th starter. I imagine Showalter exerted some power here, as Gausman pitched well out of the pen in the post-season and Showalter loves his pen. With the loss of Andrew Miller over the winter, it wouldn't surprise me if Showalter wanted Gausman as a 3rd arm in that setup inning range, with Darren O'Day and Tommy Hunter. That, though, is incredibly short-term thinking, as the Orioles are likely going to go through major changes in the next year or two with FA's and really need to pay one eye towards the future. In that respect, sending him down to AAA to work on his breaking ball consistency would've been, IMO, a better option, while also keeping him stretched out. I don't suspect the Orioles will move Gausman, though, unless they get a "stupid, we can't say no" trade. Wei-Yin Chen is a FA after this season, and I'm not convinced they'll pony up the FA cash to keep him around. Same goes for Bud Norris. Ubaldo's no lock to make it through his contract as a starter, and Miguel Gonzalez doesn't have the stuff to keep better talents aside. To be quite honest, Tillman isn't all that good either.

To be quite honest, craig, prior to your post about Candelario being a "vet" in another thread, I had sort of forgotten about him as well, as I haven't been making lists in ages and was going off names that people had. I don't "buy" Candelario yet. That is, I'm not exactly going to say, he's a guy I'd bet on. That said ... at 18 in the system ... the offensive upside, is by most accounts, still there, and he's only 21. There were those reports that was too tentative at Daytona, and that he might've fixed it in KC. Again, not "buying" him, but as a ceiling nod? I can't think of many people in the system, at this point in the list, with a higher offensive ceiling (and IIRC, there were reports that his defense might be a tick improved ... still may have to move off third in the long run, though), and he's only age 21 in A+ ball next year, not exactly old. On paper, the profile - a young guy in A+ with good offensive ceiling - seems reasonable here, even accounting for the fact that this is a repeat year.

I'll bite ... with the rash of system rankings out, which 3 systems would you place him top 5? The Detroit Tigers are largely considered to have the worst system these days. Yet, I'm not sure I place Szczur, prior to this spring stretch, ahead of Hernan Perez, who was the 5th prospect on BA's list for the Tigers. Perez had hit better than Szczur in recent years and shows more versatility, being able to play middle infield. Their number 6 prospect for the Tigers was James McCann, and I'm a bit biased, as I've liked him for awhile, but ... a catching prospect who can hit and is decent the plate has some solid value. BA's 10th best prospect would be Dixon Machado, a, IIRC, good defensive shortstop who hit in AA last year and has a solid approach at the dish. I think there's a case for Szczur over Machado before this spring (Machado's ceiling is probably utility depth (seems like there are some who feel he is growing into some more offense, so there's a chance it could be more)... essentially what they hope Hernan Perez can be ... but it's debatable, despite showing well last year, if the bat gets him there) ... but I think there's probably a case for Machado over Szczur as well (if you buy last season as a sign of improvement from Machado offensively, then sure, a good defensive shortstop with offensive skills ...). Now ... if this Szczur is the real Szczur ... then sure, but this Szczur only has a limited sample based on ST and that's such a small SS to plop him in the top 5 of systems, IMO.