toonsterwu

A good arm who scuffled in AAA last year. A bit undersized, and has some effort in his delivery. IIRC, it's like a 92-94 mph fastball with some action, and a slider that flashes. May be more of a pen arm. Didn't realize he was sent to AA - he should do fine there with his stuff.

Jokisch. It's really not a pen vs. starter issue for me. It's the simple fact that Arias is so, so raw and so far away, without a clear idea of how great his ceiling is, I'm tough to vote him ahead of someone who looks like a solid bet to get some looks in the bigs in the next couple years. Jokisch has a good enough fastball for a lefty.

UVA's season has been ... iinteresting. The elite offense hasn't been there, as guys have struggled (particularly Downes, but McCarthy did as well). Fisher is out. That said, the pitching, which was in a rebuilding mode, has picked up the slack, as Kirby has been dominant. Sborz is clearly a pen arm functioning as a Saturday starter for now (I now expect Sborz to move back to the pen next year, with Connor Jones taking a rotation spot, as Jones is arguably the best, or 2nd best, arm for UVA). The meat of UVA's schedule is in April, though. Fisher comes back, I want to say mid-April. A good April, and they'll probably be in contention for the top overall seed. The benefit of all these injuries/struggles is that younger positional guys are getting PT and AB's, which will help for next year, after this junior crop of positional guys leave, but while UVA still has an elite pitching staff.

Kirby has been such a pleasant surprise. I mean, I knew/heard all the reports how he was rounding into form in the summer and so forth, but man, his stuff is sharp and his command is solid. If that change-up improves, he can take that next step into really elite arm territory. That said, I think Matuella is ahead of him right now. He just came out of nowhere. It really wouldn't surprise me, though, if Kirby took the next step and was a possible 1/1 consideration next year.

Curious about the votes for Arias here ... granted, it's a hodgepodge here.

They don't need to do that If they want to get a pitcher to make this dream sequence a reality, they have to give up something and they can get someone better if they include Castro. I'm sure you probably didn't mean it that way, but when you say "include Castro", it seems to suggest Castro as a part of a package for a pitcher, and well ... if Castro is good, he, by himself, should net that pitcher. A good Castro should be able to get us at least a good, young starting arm (theoretically), and more.

Hmm ... I'll guess somewhere from 68-72, a drop due to expectations of another mid-season where we move veterans out of town. If I had to go with a specific number, I''d guess 69 just because my hunch is that this isn't a 70 win team, but sure, it could be slightly above that. I think Samardzija has a good half-season and is moved for assets at the deadline (at least one young, ready arm). I just don't love the rotation after that. I want to believe that Edwin Jackson will be closer to 2 years ago, but I really do wonder if the slightly slipping velocity is a sign that he's on the start of the down-slope of his career (doesn't mean he can't put together a fantastic season this year, though I am not expecting it obviously). I guess I can imagine say, a CJ Edwards or a trade asset in a Samardzija move bolstering the rotation, but even then ... it'd be debatablehow good they would be this year. My guess is that the pen will show flashes, but will also be inconsistent at times, blowing a few games. Offensively, I expect a bounce back year from Starlin Castro. Still bullish there, and it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up with a better ISOP than 2012. I think Rizzo should have better production than 2013, although I'm not sure I expect him to be better than 2012 (just not convinced he's a consistent .280+ hitter at this stage of his career). I have no idea what to expect from Olt. I can see Junior Lake crashing back to earth as MLB pitchers have a bigger report on him. I'll guess that we get one mildly surprising trade this year (I can't really think of anything that would be shocking ... I mean, if Starlin Castro were traded, I think some of us here would say ... well, that was expected. If Rizzo were traded, there might be some surprise, but I don't know about shocking. I guess the only thing that might be shocking would be if we traded off a prospect ... but even then, with the "numbers" game, at some point that would happen. Actually, the only thing that might be shocking is dealing off a good prospect for a veteran, which I absolutely don't expect, hence why I don't think anything will be shocking). Javier Baez will come up, but go through some growing pains. The x-factor, record wise, for me comes down to 2 P's - Pace and Pressure. If we are on a good pace early (say, borderline .500ish at the deadline), I wonder if there will be any internal discussions/pressure to have a competitive team and avoid a big sell-off. By no means do I think they'd make some foolish push for a playoff spot and deal off quality prospects for veterans. But if they avoid selling and/or deal off second or third tier prospects for some small boost, it's not impossible to envision a scenario where they end up say, 5-10 games better. If the moves don't damage the long-term prospects of the team, it's not that hard for me to envision a scenario where they discuss if there is enough value/appeal in selling the general fans that we are improving as a result of a mid-70 win season. After all, outside of Samardzija, there isn't a currently expected potential trade asset that, on paper, will net a huge return.

I can agree with a lot of that, but I'm willing to somewhat give him a mulligan on the HR power. This might not be fair, but I keep thinking back to how badly Alcantara struggled in Low A before taking off in Daytona. I'd have to go check again, but I'm fairly certain that HR wise, Kane County is a harder park than Peoria was (could be wrong). That said, to be clear, I wasn't suggesting anything high, but at the back end of the top 30 (I might consider him around say, 22-27 if I did a personal list), I think it's an intriguing enough gambit - a guy with the potential for more, but a bit more developed than some of the names we're tossing around.

If it were up to me, at best, I would only have 1 of the 4 in, and at 30. I'm surprised how people seem to be so low on amaya now.

Tt, I agree with you on paniagua, but jcf is right to point out dunston jr. here, whoi think you pushed for. ceiling has to be a factor in rankings, at least until a player gets to the upper levels. I might've missed it but why were you so high on jr. personally, I wouldn't put him top30, and I think I said as much, as he's so far away and his ceiling seems to be what, a fringe starter.

All three are really ceiling types (even Hannemann, considering how raw he is). Not a huge fan of any of the three being in the top 30, in all honesty, but I guess if we're going to go with ceiling, I'll go with Tseng's ceiling, which seems higher (somewhat due to the fact that he's more of an unknown). Considering Paniagua's lack of a quality 3rd pitch as of last check (isn't his changeup pedestrian), Tseng's ceiling seems a touch higher at the moment.

I think this is high for both guys, but pushed to choose, I'll go with Torres. Both are upside picks - yes, there's some track record with Shawon Dunston Jr., but not enough for me to give an overwhelming edge to, and as such, I'll go with the better perceived upside.

I'm still a big fan of Bruno. I still believe that, had UVA had an opening at shortstop, he might've been drafted as one (he was slated to be the starting shortstop, then got hurt, and Chris Taylor took over and ran with it ... admittedly, Taylor is probably the better defensive player of the two). I think, on paper, he's a better contact guy than a Fontenot, and I think he's got a bit more power than Torreyes/LeMahieu. If given the opportunity, I think he could be a good, starting 2nd baseman in the bigs. That said, this is an awfully tough system for him to work his way up because of our depth. In any other system, his name would probably be one of the more intriguing up the middle players.

Contreras, Cabrera, and I'm sneaking in Amaya for now, as I buy the upside, and I think he could get uncorked in Daytona. As a side note, if I was going to a young, upside arm already pitching in the system, my gut is to go with Underwood ahead of Maples. I just don't get the feel that Underwood's mechanical concerns are that significant, and he's such a good athlete, you hope he simply, over time, is able to adjust. Dunno, that's been my gut feeling this off-season.

I'll admit, I am hesitant on Pineyro. There's a part of me that wonders if all the "safer than Black as a starter" comparisons (seems like that was the comparison made this winter here and elsewhere, primarily because they were both trade additions) is a bit over-stated. Yes, he has a better 3rd pitch as of now, but the breaking ball needs a lot of work. I mean, I think people forget, but in low A, the talk amongst some folks was that Ben Wells breaking ball "flashed" well and had potential. That pitch never came around, and it's no guarantee that Pineyro's will. I haven't heard anyone suggest the change as a potential plus pitch either, so he looks to be a guy who max end potential lacks a really plus pitch and is more a 4th/5th starter hope. That said, the positive end sees a guy that has solid velocity, with the potential for 2 better than average secondary pitches, with solid command and a good performance record. He should be a starter in AA. His ceiling's better than a Hendricks (that's no knock on Hendricks, but I do think Pineyro's ceiling as a starter is higher), and I think he could pump mid-90's if thrust in the pen. It's not that I'm not intrigued with the options here - it's just, there's enough to pick at that I feel okay with Pineyro as one of the three.

Give Kirby another year to polish things up and it really wouldn't surprise me if he's a top 15-20 type pick. He's got that type of talent. I keep saying this (and feeling ludicrous when I say it), but if Downes can show improvement on his approach, cuts his K's down a bit, maybe walks a bit more ... I really wouldn't be shocked if he challenged Fisher to be top UVA player off the board this year. He's got that type of Brett Jackson-esque talent, but he also has a bit of Brett Jackson approach issues to be concerned with (although my gut feeling is that it isn't as bad as Jackson's (and that it isn't as bad as Jarrett Parker's).) To be clear, I don't think he will beat out Fisher, if I had to make a guess now, but the talent is there. Good power ... maybe 55-60. Papi, I think, can play a decent LF. Where the Cubs pick in the 2nd, I think he might be a tad high there, although he might not be on the board in the 3rd. Tough to tell at this early stage. As for Hoffman, looks like he did pretty dang good. Getting beat by Downes for 2 home runs ... not anything to hang his hat about, that's for sure. This UVA lineup is one of the best in baseball. I know there are comps (was it BA?) to that Miami lineup with Alonso, Weeks, Tekotte, and so forth ... I'm not sure this lineup isn't better than that one (in the college game, and in terms of pro potential). Edit: Really goes in the college thread, but I still shake my head that UVA's Saturday starter 2 seasons ago is now the weekday starter, and that their Sunday starter last year is now the closer, and talent wise, it's the right decision (to make this draft related ... both Lewicki and Howard could go in the top 10 rounds as arms ... and Howard could go in the top 10 as a bat ... actually, Cubs-wise, I wouldn't mind Artie Lewicki as a, say, cheaper 8th-10th round pick type. Nice power arm to gamble on).

Tangled, there's a "watch" link on the Virginia baseball site that connects to CBS Sports Network (I think).

Also tomorrow, Jeff Hoffman vs Virginia's Nathan Kirby and that fantastic Virginia offense. Kirby is a likely high first rounder in 2015. This is probably more a discussion for the college thread, but I was actually fairly surprised that O'Connor decided to shift his rotation order up after 1 week. I mean, admittedly, the rotation is probably in the "correct" order, in terms of talent (Kirby/Sborz/Waddell - although Waddell was solidly in the 90's and could end up being a better pro prospect than initially thought if he develops). I'm going to be fascinated with UVA's approach against Hoffman. As good as Hoffman looked last week, I wonder if they have the UVA bats be a bit more aggressive than normal to try and jump on some pitches. I might be completely off on this, but I think Gosselin jumped on an early pitch against Strasburg way back to get that tilt going. Either way, going to be a fun game to follow.

So, had some time on my hand, so I'm going to make a halfhearted argument for Willson Contreras. Halfhearted because even I have reservations about putting him this high (again, I voted for three, but not sure on order, and really, could go a bunch of ways). As long as Contreras has been in our system, next year will be his age 22 season. He should start in A+, imo. Defensively, he has a good arm and throws a decent clip of runners out, particularly for a guy fairly raw to catching. He's still improving his reactions behind the plate but the raw ability is there to improve, and when you factor in how he's adjusted to catching, as of now, I think a fair argument could be made that since he's developed fairly well as a catcher (when you consider when he made the move), that it's fair to dream a bit that he will get a bit better behind the dish. Offensively, he'll never be a high average hitter. At some point, one wonders if better fastballs in the higher levels could cause him some problems as well. That said, he has some pop, and his approach at the plate is fairly solid. I hesitate about him here, because that profile feels like a Henry Blanco comp could be a positive case (not best case, just a positive case), and a Henry Blanco comp for a guy in Low A really wouldn't get me excited. That said, at his age, for the position, and the with the raw ability he's shown, there's enough to think that there's a chance he could be better than that. At this stage of the system (19-23), it doesn't seem that ridiculous, in my opinion (again, reserving the right to change my vote before poll ends). So, an argument for someone should come with an argument of why I might ponder said person ahead of others, so let's go - Skulina/Frazier - These guys have really picked up helium in the last couple months, it seems. Maybe I missed something from instructs, so I'll acknowledge that possibility exists. That said, both guys have, at best, a mid-rotation ceiling, and unless something new is out there, neither guy is close to the polish/development of a Rob Zastryzny. They have arm strength on their side. I can see an argument for both to fall into this range, but when there's enough questions about said ceiling, which isn't that huge to begin with, I really want to see more, even from a college arm. Again, maybe I missed something from instructs, but I can't help but wonder if I wouldn't consider Trey Masek ahead of both of them. Torres/Tseng - I understand the desire for the upside vote. It's not like the "veterans" here are guys that jump off the page and necessarily excite. Considering age and risk, though, I simply can't justify it for me if there's decent enough veterans ahead. There's simply a huge enough question as to these guys ability to make it up the ladder as of now, when they haven't played stateside. Once there's some reports/judgments on their abilities stateside, I'm much more willing to vote for them (witness how I pushed Marco Hernandez based off reports and what I heard from Arizona several years back). Just ... the way I process it. Beeler/Geiger/Szczur - Not really in the consideration for me. I liked Geiger when we picked him, but considering his defensive limitations, the bat is really going to have to show all the way up the ladder. I guess, with Beeler, in my mind, part of it is, I can't help but wonder why I wouldn't gamble on Wells moreso than Beeler, and hence question why I should go with Beeler here. The other part is that his ceiling isn't huge, and he was banged up, but I could see him getting 5th starter chances in the bigs. I still sort of like Szczur, but he's in his age 24/25 season, and the ceiling for him simply has narrowed it's range down. That said, could see him get plenty of opportunities to find a role in the bigs. Hanneman - The rawness just makes it tough for me to vote him here. Maples/Underwood - Love the raw potential, but just too inconsistent right now and too far away. Dunston Jr./Balaguert - I know why people are intrigued with the former, but I really want a better picture of his offensive potential and whether or not the approach holds up in higher levels. Just wary that he might end up being more like, say, Matt Szczur. The latter just strikes out a bit much for me as of now to really get excited. Guess the pool I was thinking through was Cabrera/Rivero/Vitters/Pineyro/Contreras/Amaya. I really want to make a case for Amaya, as I really think he could breakout, but there isn't enough, in my mind as of right now, to make an argument for him.

My initial inclination is to go, in some order, Cabrera, Vitters, Contreras. I may change it at some point, as Pineyro would be next up on that list, but I just question if his ceiling is high enough to make the move ahead of the 3. If Contreras develops into an average defensive backstop with some offensive ability, there's value in that, and hence why he made it on.

I really, really don't see the argument for Eloy ahead of Neil Ramirez. You are talking about a guy who hasn't played stateside yet and is being ranked solely on upside. I mean, it wasn't too long ago that Paniagua soaked up hopes and dreams and fit into a top 10 of our rankings for some. Furthermore, it's not like this is Eloy vs. a guy that's an fringe arm in A ball. Ramirez is an upper level arm who should be in AAA, and has a chance to stick as a starter, but looks like he should get at least plenty of chances to fit in a pen, and pen wise, has late inning potential. I really, really don't see the argument for Eloy EVEN if you assume Ramirez is "just" a pen arm. Even if he is just a "pen arm", the chances of Eloy making it up and being a useful MINOR leaguer in the upper levels, let along a major leaguer, is a gigantic risk and unknown. But that's me.

WBC and an Asian competition. He didn't pitch much in the WBC, iirc, and when he was in (I want to say it was only one outing?), he just pumping the fastball hard. I mean, he performed well enough (I don't recall anything happening in the game, just recall my pops and I commenting on how average he looked for that inning). Velocity, IIRC, was mid-90's at least, but felt the fastball was flat and I recall wondering whether or not that would be usable against Japan or Korea. That said, considering it was a big showcase for him, wouldn't surprise me if he was simply pumping velocity to get attention. There's a reason that a guy the Indians (I think, or maybe Pirates) just signed, Yao-Hsun Yang (I think that's the name), had a lot more PT for Taiwan than Tseng, because Tseng simply wasn't polished. The Asian competition was hard to judge, but my recollection of it was that the opponents made contact against him. It was a few years ago, so my recollection is a bit shady, as I only recall where I was watching the game (friends house for a party).

Ramirez, and then I'm not sure who. Thought process: Neil Ramirez - This one's fairly easy for me. His AAA run with the Rangers two seasons ago wasn't ... out of the world horrendous. He showed an ability to get guys out in the upper levels. Worst case, he should get opportunities to be a pen arm. There's still a chance that he could be a starter if things tighten up just a touch. Age 25 for AAA, which is where he should start, is a touch old, but not so much to really bother me. __________ Josh Vitters - He's in the mix, as he should rake in AAA. Working against him right now, in my mind, is whether or not I buy his power for LF. That said, at the 18th-20th spots in the system, and only 24/25 (I forget, we use July 1st for the age designation right, so it'd be his age 24 season), well, any negatives are countered by the fact that it's this low in the rankings. After all, physically, he "looks" to have the power for LF. Dillon Maples/Duane Underwood - Not really in the mix for me. SNTS gave hope to these guys in past seasons, but as of now, they are raw, high upside arms that you hope on. There's simply too many guys for me to really put them in the mix. Jen-Ho Tseng/Eloy Jimenez/Gleyber Torres - Sort of in the mix, but I have always been wary of guys that haven't done anything stateside. The reports are nice, and I can buy people going for the upside, but for me, this upside is just too far away. (Furthermore, I wasn't all that impressed with Tseng in action, although he might've been pitching for the scouts and trying to amp the velocity up). Alberto Cabrera - In the mix for me. The gap from Ramirez to Cabrera simply isn't that much. We hope the young upside arms in the lower levels become better than Cabrera, but if they simply become Cabrera, an intriguing enough guy in the upper levels, that would be a small win. Is Corey Black that much better than Alberto Cabrera? There's a bit more to hope on, but both guys have plus velocity, inconsistent command, and inconsistent secondary offerings that flash at times. I don't view Cabrera as a starter. Armando Rivero - If I'm going to buy Cabrera in the mix, then Rivero is sort of in the mix. Cabrera simply has more work for me to be intrigued with, so Rivero is a slot behind for me. Ivan Pineyro - In the mix, but ceiling is average enough and he's at least a couple years away that I am uncertain. That said, like Vitters, at this juncture, the concerns are countered by the fact that this is inching towards the bottom third of a top 30. Hanneman/Frazier/Skulina - Of the trio, Skulina is the one that I would lean towards, but I just don't know if I buy all three as having high enough ceiling/polish combination to counter the lack of work to judge off of. Dunston Jr./Balaguert - Short of it is, I feel like they are too far away to go with here. I want to see Dunston Jr.'s approach hold in the upper levels before really getting intrigued. Side note: I'm sort of curious where Trey Martin starts. Guessing XST if healthy enough. Contreras/Amaya - Definitely in the mix. I went from thinking Contreras was eh last year, to thinking he's a bit under-appreciated this year. He's got intriguing enough potential behind the plate, and had a solid offensive season (had he qualified, he would've had the third highest OPS in the MWL for a catcher (granted, that doesn't say that much, but it would've been top 50 in the MWL, had he qualified).) Amaya will be in his age 21 season in A+ (I'm assuming), and had a decent enough year with enough offensive upside for an up-the-middle guy. I really think there's going to be an "Alcantara" like breakout in Daytona from at least one of the starting players in KC last year. So, realistically, I'm thinking, as of now, Contreras/Amaya/Pineyro/Cabrera/Vitters (not in order) after Ramirez, and I'm just not sure enough outside of Ramirez to vote on them for now.

Missed this too, but it wouldn't matter as Black won this one going away. My votes would've been Neil Ramirez, Alberto Cabrera, and then ... um not sure. My argument would be simple - you hope that Corey Black's projected pen ceiling (I know, Keith Law loves him) still doesn't seem much better than either Ramirez and Cabrera, and I would argue that Ramirez might have a better shot to stick as a starter (I've actually never really supported the idea that Cabrera was a starter, as dating back to when I posted on Sickels, I've always said I thought, even during his struggles, that his future was a pen arm). I could see Black or Pineyro as my third option, and I think there's a case for Vitters. I would ponder Amaya - he's going to be, what, in his age 21 season in A+, and probably has a good chance of having offensive improvement from his performance in the MWL. I'm hesitant to vote Jimenez that high, but yeah, he'd be in the mix. Really don't know, but it doesn't matter, as this was a Black runaway. I am admittedly a bit surprised at such a low level of interest in Neil Ramirez when we are at prospect 16. His awful AAA run with Texas 2 seasons ago wasn't that awful to think he has not shot as a starter.

Probably a good idea that I missed this, as I would've brought it to a tie with a vote for Z. That said, I could go either way. I do really want to see Blackburn hold the plus velocity before really falling for him. Maybe that will make me late on the bandwagon.