Mantle, DiMaggio, Snider and Griffey all had careers cut short due to chronic serious injuries (mostly with their knees). Pujols obviously isn't impervious or invincible, but he hasn't he had the repeated and serious issues those guys dealt with for long periods of time (or even the entirety of their careers). Foxx's career was sidelined by him being a ridiculous drunk. Ott did indeed fall off a cliff production and ability-wise, but that was after playing 18 120-game or more seasons (4 in the 120's, the rest all 135 and up), so it's not like he didn't have a very long career and fell out of the game prematurely; the guy was a full time player when he was just barely 19. Throw it all under "[expletive] happens". Like you said, Pujols isn't immune to [expletive] happening. Even if we can't envision where the [expletive] will come from as we sit here today. Nobody is, including players under 30. Yes, obviously the risk is inherently higher as they get older, but looking for insight into what can be expected/hoped of Pujols with players like seems pretty faulty since he's been fortunate to not suffer all the knee (and booze) problems those guys were wracked with. The risk is not only inherently higher as guys get older, but also as the contract gets longer and the dollars get larger. Obviously Pujols is a special player, but this is the proverbial perfect storm. You've heard me say this before: the Cards benefitted colossally from Pujols' massively underpaid peak years -- let them suffer from his massively overpaid decline years too. You need to overpay for good FA, much less one of Pujol's caliber. That's a given. The Cubs are fortunate enough to be a team that can eat big contracts, even one as big as what Pujol's might command. The primary risk is in whether or not you get enough of a return from his above average years. If you think those aren't going to last long enough to justify what he's likely to get, so be it, nothing is going to convince you otherwise.