I think a lot of people saw Carp getting injured as being a strong possibility, as well as Edmonds and Wells sucking. Their rotation was under heavy scrutiny well before the season started, even from homers like Dayn Perry. Rolen is getting older and his injuries are starting to catch up with him, Reyes has never been this bad, but he has always had durability issues. Really the only thing no one could have foreseen was Looper being this good. This past offseason Jocketty looked a lot like Hendry did last offseason, it's the same sort of crap we roast Jimbo for. I'm looking at 4 projections right now (ZiPS, CHONE, Bill James, and Marcel). Here is the worst line officially projected before the year for the players I mentioned: Jim Edmonds: 253/365/480 Scott Rolen: 278/362/477 Albert Pujols: 331/424/635 Adam Kennedy: 266/335/372 Adam Wainwright: 4.05 ERA/1.35 WHIP Anthony Reyes: 4.59 ERA/1.35 WHIP (the other 3 projections have him boasting a sub-4 ERA) Chris Carpenter: lowest IP projection = 195, I don't remember a lot of concerns about his durability directly before the season. Kip Wells: eh, most thought he would be bad or injured. Still, 3/4 projected him to have a sub-5 ERA.