Practically zero unless he suddenly fails to secure another top 10 recruiting class, although if he goes 7-5/6-6 with the schedule put before him it'd be interesting to see the reaction. ND's schedule is practically begging for 8 wins or more if the team improves as much as freshmen-to-sophomore improvement normally would suggest they will. ETA: Only morons call him the genius, this term is now used almost exclusively by Internet trolls. I'm not entirely sure I see more than 6-7 wins for sure. San Diego State, Stanford, Navy, Washington and Syracuse are relatively sure wins (Stanford and Navy might be in question, but probably not) North Carolina could be a win, but I'm not sure ND is much better than UNC right now - it's definitely not a sure thing. Otherwise, ND has one sure loss (USC) and five tough games (Michigan, @Purdue, Michigan State, Pitt and @BC). Given that, I'm not sure 8 wins is a sure thing. Less than 6-7 would be awful though. I think ND has a good chance of winning two of the five tough games - even the reprehensibly bad early-season version of the Irish managed to hang with MSU and Purdue last year, and Pitt isn't very good, plus it's at home. Obviously, I'm banking on a lot of improvement, though. Your assessment of the schedule's pretty good.