KingCubsFan

Not quite sure how Pujols is "overachieving." He was drafted low mostly because no one had seen him and he had just arrived in the US. Maybe he wasn't expected to be one of the greatest hitters of all time, but he always had talent and was projected as a middle of the order hitter. Prior shouldn't really count as a good pick: Terry Ryan essentially made that pick for him. Willis was a pretty good pick, but one good pick doesn't make a good scouting director. Since Stocksill came over, we've had one good position prospect (signed out of Latin America) and some OK pitching prospects with average ceilings. The only one with a high ceiling (Guzman), was signed as FA by Hendry after KC released him. Rich Hill might have been drafted by Hendry too Oh I don't know he was on no ones top prospect lists and then goes on to be the best hitter in the history of baseball(or at least in the argument). I can see where someone wouldn't consider that as an overachiever Well he was in the Cardinals' system for one full year before going to Majors, and he made the Cardinal's top prospect list for Baseball America. Maybe you didn't hear about him for years like other top prospects because he made the Cardinals out of A ball. Usually, players without talent don't make their major league team out of Class A. In fact, only special players do.

Not quite sure how Pujols is "overachieving." He was drafted low mostly because no one had seen him and he had just arrived in the US. Maybe he wasn't expected to be one of the greatest hitters of all time, but he always had talent and was projected as a middle of the order hitter. Prior shouldn't really count as a good pick: Terry Ryan essentially made that pick for him. Willis was a pretty good pick, but one good pick doesn't make a good scouting director. Since Stocksill came over, we've had one good position prospect (signed out of Latin America) and some OK pitching prospects with average ceilings. The only one with a high ceiling (Guzman), was signed as FA by Hendry after KC released him. Rich Hill might have been drafted by Hendry too

The recent failure of the farm system can be blamed on John Stocksill. Hendry hasn't been a very good GM, but he built one of the best farm systems in the game, and was clearly a terrific scouting director. There's plenty of blame to go around either way. GMs are responsible for the big league club and the farm system. If they hire the wrong people at either level, they have to take some of the blame. Hendry didn't overwork Prior and Wood himself, but he hired the man that did. Also, Hendry only took over as GM in 2002 but the best farm system in the game he had built ended up producing good pitchers and nobody worth a dip anywhere else. It's a mixed bag. The pitching talent in the system has been very good, and is still OK as we have some legit prospects in Veal, Gallagher and several B-prospects like Marshall, Mateo, Marmol, Guzman, Ryu. The position player talent has been average at best and is terrible at the moment. In hindsight, it seems what Hendry looks for in pitchers works pretty well, but what he looks for in hitters is betraying him, and it's not really changed since he was scouting director. I'll give him credit for taking a god-awful minor league system in the mid-90's and making it respectable, but let's step back and realize that very few Cub non-pitchers have actually stuck in the bigs since then. It's hard to blame Hendry for the farm system's fall after he became GM. When you hire a scouting director, you need to give him at least 3-4 years before you can make a determination as to whether his drafts/signings have been successful. Stocksill got about 4 years, and it turned out he sucked.

The recent failure of the farm system can be blamed on John Stocksill. Hendry hasn't been a very good GM, but he built one of the best farm systems in the game, and was clearly a terrific scouting director.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6392576 Not sure if Epstein should be that high...

Why? A prospect who can't be traded has only one way of helping a team, and that is by becoming a good major league player. If a prospect can't be traded, I'd estimate 25-40% of his value to the team disappears. Wow, didn't realize he had a NTC. That's awful. Does anyone know of any other cases where a prospect has had a NTC?

so you don't think prior has good mechanics? A lot of people have commented that the way in which Prior raises his elbow above his shoulder when delivering is a good way to put extra stress on the shoulder

So THAT'S who gives Shawne Merriman his steroids...

Before anyone gets excited about these numbers, you should be aware of this: Eric Patterson: .293/.358/.457 This would make him the 3rd best 2b in baseball. He's not even the third best second base prospect, and that doesn't include young players like Weeks or Kendrick

That has the makings of a pretty bad rotation, especeially that question mark guy. My hope is that Guzman breaks out and Prior is healthy. Miller is a shell of his former self and even if healthy will not be the same pitcher he was in Houston. I disagree with the comment about the makings of a pretty bad rotation. If Prior is healthy, this becomes an extremely good rotation. If Guzman breaks out and/or Miller is healthy, this is a good rotation. Don't forget that you still have Marshall et al to back up or take over for someone in the rotation. Of course there are question marks, but show me any team that doesn't have question marks, especially at this time of the year. Similar comments have been made the last 3 or 4 off-seasons. At this point, having Rich Hill meet Bill James' expectations seems to be the best chance of having a good rotation.

Considering the business that BA is in, they do an incredibly good job at rating prospects and judging long-term potential. Simply pointing out one or two players that they failed to rate as top prospects really isn't a good indicator of their success. Go look at MLB all-star teams, MVPS, top performers, etc. and most of them will have been rated highly by BA at one point or another. Furthermore, look at BA's Minor League Players of the Year (which takes long-term potential into account), and you will find that they have a pretty good track record there too. Eric Patterson and Sean Gallagher aren't good examples either. Patterson doesn't deserve to be considered a top prospect. Any 23 year old college player who, as a leadoff hitter, puts up a .330 OBP should not be rated highly. He's simply overrated on this board. And Gallagher has always been on BA's radar. They simply expressed concerns about his frame and his mediocre fastball, which are both valid concerns. Jimmy Journell was actually a good prospect, he just got injured. And Shaun Boyd dropped in the rankings every year as he continued to underperform. When making rankings, BA looks to minor league evaluators, managers, scouts and statistics to make an opinion. I can't think of any better way to do it. If you look strictly at performance, you end up comparing Brendan Harris to Albert Pujols

Can we add in a late addition for Chris DeLuca? From today's Sun-Times:

Exactly what job was this? Please don't tell me he was going to start... http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-070105rogers,1,1154597.column?page=2&coll=cs-home-utility

i'm not saying veres can do it but doug jones had a pretty good career as a closer throwing 80 mph sinkers & a palm ball. location & movement are much more critical than just raw velocity - just ask greg maddux. Maddux threw harder than 84 in his prime, he just didn't throw 95+ like most great pitchers

I've heard they were going to use Rauch as their closer. Great trade KW. They should make him a starter instead

If I had to pay 18 mil, it would be for Zambrano... and I cant think of another pitcher over him Johan Santana?

Can we just call up Zambrano right now and offer him an identical contract before people start talking 8 years?

Except that McCarthy has about 4 (5?) seasons left where his salary can be controlled either by the team or by arbitration. So unless Williams is planning for the 2011 payroll, I don't think that's why he did it. It doesn't matter if his salary is controlled or not, if he puts up decent numbers he will be approaching the $8-10 in just a few seasons. Also, it seems as though they were going to relegate him to the pen or AAA this year. This is an example of trading a guy while he has maximum value. McCarthy may have contributed this season, but what he brought in trade was potentially far better for the near and long term. Chances are, losing McCarthy will not cost the WS a World Series. If he's getting paid 8-10 million by his first year of arbitration, that would mean he's one of the best pitchers in the AL, and I think the sox won't have a problem paying him. The same thinking goes with Danks. And replacing McCarthy with Gavin Floyd could potentially cost them the playoffs if Floyd doesn't perform like they clearly expect him to.

Except that McCarthy has about 4 (5?) seasons left where his salary can be controlled either by the team or by arbitration. So unless Williams is planning for the 2011 payroll, I don't think that's why he did it.

Very true. But wtf happened to Helton's power last year? He clearly took steroids but somehow gets away with it Let's avoid Salem witch trials, please. As you may have read in my other post, Helton had a scary stomach condition. For awhile, it looked like he was deathly ill and possibly finished as a ballplayer. To say that steroids was the issue proves one's ignorance, as well as one's willingness to jump to an inaccurate conclusion. Well, he may not have, but I think it's equally ignorant to totally dismiss it. It was mentioned at the time steroids was a big issue, but he got dismissed pretty quickly, probably because he plays in Colorado. Should Giambi get a pass because, he too, got violently ill and had his power sapped? I know nsbb doesn' t really steroid accusations but, to me, he's one of the people who should be considered an obvious candidate, yet somehow gets ignored.

Very true. But wtf happened to Helton's power last year? He clearly took steroids but somehow gets away with it

Actually, the theory is lineup protection, when the facts have indicated that it really makes no difference. Where are these facts? I'm sure the links to the studies have been posted numerous times. You could probably find the articles using google. Whatever. You think batting Izturis behind DLee won't affect Lee's numbers? Of course lineup protection matters. It doesn't take a statistical study to figure out something that obvious. Lineup protection means Izturis would have better numbers because Lee is batting behind him. Lee's numbers would be affected because he'd basically have a pitcher hitting in front of him. So he'd get no RBI chances. That's a lineup order issue.

OBP isn't as important at the bottom of the lineup though. COnsidering that Soriano's OBP might be below average, we should make sure that we have someone hitting in front of Ramirez and Lee that will get on at .360+ As it stands, Murton is the really the only sure bet for that type of production. If we put Soriano and Izturis at the top, we could be looking at 2005 all over again in terms of OBP at the top of the lineup (maybe not as bad, but close).

Can we trade Moore and Patterson to the Devil Rays for Kazmir while we're at it? The problem is that our minor league system just isn't very good right now, and we really don't have the prospects to trade for these players. If Jones or Wells were being shopped (which they're not), I guarantee their teams could get more than pitchers like Marshall or Marmol. Felix Pie isn't even among the 10 CF prospects on some lists, and he's our #1 prospect. Give Wilken a few years, and he'll fix what Stocksill broke. If you're claiming Murton, Marshall and Ohman would not be fair value for Dunn given his question marks, I would beg to differ. A lot of people like Marshall's upside, he's shown in brief stretches he can be a successful ML pitcher. Ohman is a quality LH relief specialist, every team needs one as do the Reds, while we happen to have three (if you include Rapada). And we all know what folks think of Murton. I missed Murton. That is more reasonable

Oh, we don't like it. You can rest assured on that. Why exactly is Hendry so enamored with him? That's what I don't understand. Izturis is just another in a long line of slick fielding/no hit SS's who come and go in this league, and are soon forgotten. I wasn't fond of his offensive output pre-injury. He's 2 years removed from that offensive output and may never match it again. The Cubs apparently feel they'll get enough offensive production from Soriano, Lee, Barrett, Ramirez and others that whatever Izturis gives them will be fine as long as he continues to play defense as he has in the past. This makes me so frustrated because if Hendry would use some ingenuity, there are significant bats out there that could be attained in trade. He has a lot of trading chips that some teams would value highly--young pitchers and a couple of available and interesting young position players (Moore, Patterson). And he has the $$ to help teams looking to clear payroll. Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, Miguel Tejada, Pat Burrell (if he waives his NTC) and Vernon Wells are the impact bats potentially available in trade. Each of those teams, with the exception of Toronto, needs pitching. On the next level of production down, there's Ryan Church, Wily Mo Pena, Coco Crisp, Aaron Rowand, and Tampa's gazillion OF-ers. Each of those teams is looking for pitching help too. Myself, if Hendry doesn't want to go too far, I would like to at least acquire Church and use him in a CF platoon with Felix. That would take some of the pressure off Felix to perform, would improve the bench, and would not be expensive in terms of players. Sign Floyd if you must for the bench and to take some ABs from Murton (bad idea), spin Jones somewhere for peanuts, and give RF to Soriano. Done. My bold move would be the Church deal, skip Floyd, spin Jones, and send Matt Murton, Sean Marshall and Will Ohman to the Reds for Dunn, but that's just me, I'm permalocked on the Dunn bandwagon. Can we trade Moore and Patterson to the Devil Rays for Kazmir while we're at it? The problem is that our minor league system just isn't very good right now, and we really don't have the prospects to trade for these players. If Jones or Wells were being shopped (which they're not), I guarantee their teams could get more than pitchers like Marshall or Marmol. Felix Pie isn't even among the 10 CF prospects on some lists, and he's our #1 prospect. Give Wilken a few years, and he'll fix what Stocksill broke.