I don't really think that's true unless you're defining upside as this pie in the sky type of thing where Baez can just suddenly change into a disciplined hitter...as much as I'd like to see it, I think it's extremely unlikely. And if that is how you're defining upside, you might as well say "but what if Russell developed 40 HR power??" Certainty matters, and there's a lot more certainty in Addison reaching more of his upside than the "upside" you're talking about with Javy. Javy doesn't need to become a 10% walk rate guy. His upside at 6-7%, combined with the 30+ HR alone makes him a higher upside guy than Russell. Russell is safer and likelier to put up a higher career WAR, but I'd actually bet Javy puts up the single best season of either of them. I'd take that bet.