davell

We're losing guys, but so is everyone else. There could be 30-40 guys come off the top 100 lists due to graduations. I expect a Garza trade and probably a Soto trade to net us some solid pieces, getting depth from trading Byrd and possibly Dempster as well. I think we'll sign Soler9considered a top 20ish type right now) and we have the 6th pick and 3 others between 40 and 70 that I expect we'll do very well on. I also think we have a very large group of guys with potential to break into a top 100ish type prospect as well and expect some of them to do so, just based on odds. I think Baez could be a legit breakout type and be a top 30ish type this time next year. McNutt could move back into a top 50ish type, if he stays healthy. Szczur is still around and could show improvement, because he's had a full year of just baseball and could start to click quicker because of it. Junior Lake and Josh Vitters are obviously question marks that could go either way. As for guys I could see making a list or 2 by this time next offseason? Vogelbach, Candelario, Golden, Hernandez, Torreyes, Wells, Maples, Rhee, and Concepcion. Obviously, they all won't, but I'd be surprised if we don't get at least 2 of them onto those types of lists by this time next year. My thinking is 2 of those guys, Baez, Szczur, probably McNutt, and the 6th pick as top 100 types, with depth coming from some of the rest of the group I named and the early picks in the draft, not to mention a possible Soler signing or Garza, Soto trades. I think we'll be pretty highly rated next offseason.

At this exact point, I guess I'd put us in the 12-15 range. But, if we added a Garza package and Soler to the mix, I think we'd break into the back of the top 10. But, as Kyle said, it's a clutter in the middle, which is where we are currently. That said, I fully expect we'll be consensus top 10 by this time next year.

Rizzo at 36, Brett at 89 and Baez at 95. Not surprising at all, considering he doesn't like Brett and hates Szczur. That said, he's been a fan of our moves this offseason and generally likes Theo, it seems. My guess is we'll be much higher next year on his list.

If you draft a WR in the 1st, I hope they pick up someone like Meachem through FA as well. If they sign a number 1 WR, then I hope they take one in the 2nd or 3rd in the draft too. Unless they address TE somehow. I want the O-Line addressed early as well. I guess my best case scenario would be to sign a 1 WR, sign a CB, draft a OT in the 1st, DE/DT in the 2nd, WR and TE in the 3rd. Take LB's and S's late in the draft and maybe another developmental OL.

Nah, that's allocated in the payroll for this year: Emergency fund to hire 40,000 Cubans to fill up Wrigley during Cespedes' and Soler's visits.

Their GM said they have something extravagant lined up for Cespedes today, but also said they DO have a budget they can't go over for him.

Yeah, I was wondering about that too. He was 12th on BA's list this year for the A's before the Gio trade. But, to me he has a limited upside, so it's kind of like how I'll rank a guy like Clevenger. Probably a tad higher than him, but my guess is I'll have him somewhere in the 25-35 range.

By the way, our draft/IFA budget for 2012 will be around 11 mill total. Which is down from last year. But, we've already spent 650,000 we know of on 2 Cubans and Levine has mentioned we've signed more. We've also signed at least one kid from Mexico with an unknown bonus and I fully expect us to spend more on IFA between now and when the budget takes affect on July 2nd. I'm not counting Concepcion, Soler, or Cespedes in this, since all would be 40 man roster guys, so they count on the major league payroll. But, the bottom line is we're spending money, it's just been allocated differently, as it should be, in a year where we're rebuilding(even if that's not the word Theo's going to use)

No one knows where Soler is in this process, other than he's behind Cespedes. It's really anyone's guess as to how far. I can't see a way to be creative and keep him off the 40 man either, because he'll be getting a minimum of 20 mill and probably pushes 30, in my opinion. The price we paid Concepcion probably pushed Soler's price up, because other teams are wanting to spend during this last true "free market" atmosphere. Getting him AND Cespedes may be a pipe dream, but if it happened, our payroll would be at or above 130, in all likelihood. The unknowns about our payroll, comes from our overall baseball budget. The budget is around 200 mill total. Last year, the major league payroll was 135ish and we spent close to 20 overall on the draft and IFA. That left 45 to spend on baseball ops salaries and the entire minor leagues. But, what we have to remember is we're paying Quade AND Sveum this year. We're also paying Hoyer AND Hendry this year. We're paying Theo 3.5 mill. We hired McLeod, Bohringer, Rahman, Dorsey and I think a few others as well. In addition to that, the Dominican complex is going to cost us 6 to 8 mill as well. So, this would explain why our payroll conceivably could go down a bit for 2012. After this year, you can probably add 10 mill back to it, because Hendry, Quade, and the Dominican complex will be done with.

why would that mean no money for soler? we were promised by ricketts that the payroll would remain the same. We are 40 mil short right now by my calculations. Plus were are going to get more advertising revenue from the right field renovations We're right at 115 on the 40 man right now. We went into last year at 135.

At what point would Edwin Jackson have been too much? Considering he took a one year deal over 3/30 from the Pirates, I'm not sure he was a legit option for us, without a 3 or 4 year deal. Kuroda was a guy we sniffed around, but maybe the whole thing about him wanting to be on a coast was true? Oswalt? Hasn't it been documented he just doesn't like us and didn't want to play here? I was for these types of moves as well. In fact, I wouldn't have been pissed if we handed out one of the huge FA contracts this offseason. But, our payroll is right at 115ish right now and could still climb back towards 130, by signing Cespedes and Soler or some other IFA's. In the end, I bet we spend around the same as last year, when all is finalized.

Rizzo and Brett don't need to be stars, they need to be solid everyday players. Not sure why you don't see them getting much playing time, I fully expect them both to receive a full second half, maybe more, to get some experience. Both are considered to have high floors, so I don't see this as asking for a whole lot. As for Volstad and Wood, both have things going for them as well. Age and solid peripherals being among them. To ask for one to develop into a mid rotation guy seems pretty reasonable. Out of LaHair, Cardenas, and Stewart, I don't see how they're all failed guys right now. Admittedly, I don't see LaHair as a longterm answer, and if he hits, he's still probably going to wind up as a LF. Stewart is the guy I think becomes a legit answer for us. No, he's not going to be Aramis, but I can see good defense and a .750ish OPS out of him. I doubt Cardenas becomes much more than Dewitt, but who knows? Worth giving him some time to see, in my opinion. If you still have Soto(iffy), Rizzo, Castro, Cespedes, Brett, and Stewart as part of your lineup, it gives you a shot at trading for, or signing an OF or 2B for next year. If you have Garza(iffy) or a replacement thru trade, Wood or Volstad as a mid rotation guy, probably the other as a back end guy, it leaves you needing an ace. Which is probably signable thru FA. I just don't think we're anywhere near the stage where we should be thinking this is a 4 or 5 year project.

Why is Vitters' 1st round pick status relevent? He's a decent prospect, but I don't think anyone could possibly say he's actually lived up to what he was supposed to be. And this is coming from a guy that still has hopes of him becoming an everyday player.

For us to compete NEXT year, not 4 or 5 years from now, this is what we need to see: Brett, Rizzo, and Castro develop more in 2012. Signing Cespedes would certainly help matters. One of Volstad or Wood become a legit middle of the rotation type. One of Stewart, LaHair, or Cardenas become a legit everyday player. If we trade Garza, one of the guys we get for him also needs to become a legit starting pitcher as well. I'm not thinking I'm asking for the world here. These things are things I expect WILL happen. Continued development with some high upside guys in the minors will set us up to make trades FOR guys next offseason and a big name FA pitcher signing to go along with these things and we're right back into contention.

I wouldn't go that far. There were ways to make this team a fringe contender in 2012 without handing out bad contracts. Could you please expand that thought somewhat? I'm definitely curious since you're not talking Pujols/Fielder/Darvish/CJ/Reyes type guys......Trade route, I'm guessing?

I want to see progress. We NEED to see progress. Wins and losses don't matter to me in 2012. We're not winning it all, so it shouldn't matter to anyone. We need to see solid development from our "core", which is Castro, Brett, and Rizzo for now. We need to see progress in the minors from a slew of guys that we talk about in the minors forum all the time. We need to add a couple more guys to the "core" group between now and next offseason. And we need to have an excellent draft and IFA signing period. If all these things can occur, next offseason and the following season will have a much different feel than 2012 does. And with the group we have making the decisions, I think it's not only possible, but likely.

Those comments aren't cool to see, but if Theo really wants this guy, we'll offer more money. And, in the end, I just don't see Cespedes taking less money to play somewhere else. It may be his only contract, for all anyone knows.

If we can land Cespedes, the second half of the season, winning or losing, will be must watch, at the very least, presumably with Brett, Cespedes, and Rizzo all playing everyday. I'll take exciting, in any way, shape, or form over watching a bunch of league average 33 year olds play out the string.

If we want Cespedes, he will be a Cub. Period.

76-86. Garza, Soto, and Byrd traded during season. Soriano DFA'd in June. Brett, Rizzo, Cespedes, and Turner(Garza deal) all come up and show serious potential during the 2nd half. LaHair and Stewart both hit 20+ homers. Castro puts up an .825 OPS. Dempster sucks and no one trades for him. Volstad and Wells both pitch themselves into the bullpen. Travis Wood pitches very well, but struggles down stretch. Shark gets shot at starting and shows serious potential for breakout in 2013. Maholm pitches well enough to pick his option up. DeJesus becomes the new "likability" guy(DeRosa). Back end of bullpen is a mess, as Marmol struggles, Wood does as well, and the youngsters take their lumps. Because of showings by Brett, Rizzo, Cespedes, Turner, Shark, Travis Wood, and Castro tons of optimism heading into 2013.

I'd prefer losing Vitters to Lake myself. That said, this is on the very high side of what I think is fair. As long as it's not more than this, I won't lose sleep over it.

I want both, but as long as we get one or the other, it's a hell of an offseason in my book, for the plan they've laid out.

Awesome. I'm glad some others are excited about him too. I honestly thought he'd be a borderline top 100 guy this past year. I see no reason he won't continue to hit personally, maybe even add a bit more pop. He's actually a guy I'll be surprised with, if he doesn't make AA this year and the majors by the end of 2013 for good. I thought he was the key piece in the Marshall trade and I can't wait for the Cubs to have their own version of Wee Man playing 2B next to Castro longterm. On top of his hit tool, his makeup is evidently off the charts as well. I really think he'll move fast and he's definitely well inside my personal top 10 for us.

Levine mentioned in his chat again today that the Cubs play it coy with Cuban signees, as they have signed some Cuban players 6 or 7 weeks ago that they haven't announced yet. Obviously, these probably aren't big name guys, or it would have leaked, but interesting, nonetheless.

That's what I wonder as well. My guess is Bates handles it.