davell

Here's my "Theo is horsefeathering pissed" off season Sign Darvish 5-135(27.5) Morrow 2-20(10) Neshek 2-14(7) C Rivera 1-3(3) SS Cozart 3-39(13) Gregerson 1-5 Chavez 1-2 Trades Addison Russell for Garrit Cole 4 years of Addy for 2 of Cole in a challenge trade. We sign Cozart, to replenish. Pirates take 4years of upside at a position of need, while giving up on Cole, who they figure has given them his best years. Lines up slightly better for their next time frame. Cubs get a pitcher they hope still has front of the rotation ability. Mike Montgomery, Victor Caratini, and Aramis Ademan for Zach Britton Cubs get their big time closer again for a year. In the process, the O's fill a rotation slot with Monty, get themselves a capable bench bat in Caratini, and add a very nice MI prospect as well. C Contreras-0.7, Rivera-3 1B Rizzo-7.3 2B Baez-0.7, La Stella-1 SS Cozart-13 3B Bryant-8.9 LF Schwarber-0.7 Zobrist-16.5 CF Almora-0.7 Happ-0.7 RF Heyward-28.2 Position Players 81.4M SP Lester-27.5, Darvish-27.5, Quintana-8.9, Cole-7.5, Hendricks-4.9 Starters 76.3M BP- Britton-12.2 Morrow-10, Neshek-7, Gregerson-5, Strop-5.9, Edwards-0.7, Wilson-4.3, Chavez-2 Pen-47.1M Total-204.8M Yeah, you're over the LT. But, Britton is off the books after the season, as is Gregerson, Chavez, Strop, Wilson, and Rivera. So, even with arb raises, you can stay away from the 40 over penalty box, and have a bit of room to do things, and grab Harper.

Guess he finished with 13 and 9. Which is fine, very balanced scoring tonight.....But, what in the blue hell are they doing beating Orlando by 20? In Orlando.

12 and 7 in the first half for Lauri. 5-7 and 2-2 from 3. Edit: Maybe not? ESPN is changing stats lol. Still, appears to have had a decent half.

Prado is the 3rd guy they want to move.

Damnit, that's what I thought. I was hoping this latest article was just correct and this hadn't been fully resolved. What is a "non-market, disqualified, revenue sharing payee? Who falls into that category? At any rate, I guess we'd still receive close to 1.5-2 mill extra with the picks. That could still help influence going after a QO'd Cobb, as could his contract term length, if we've traded for a starter.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2017-18-mlb-offseason-free-agency-winter-meetings-other-important-dates/ There's an interesting note in here, that's worth a mention. In response to guys receiving a QO..... We'd be giving up our 2nd pick, in order to sign a guy. I'm perfectly fine giving that up, if its for something good. But, if Alex Cobb receives a QO? Is it REALLY worth giving him 4/48 or whatever he'll get, over getting Chatwood for much less, without the draft pick loss? By the way, our 2nd pick should be coming after the FIRST round. It looks likevweve got a great shot at getting TWO comp picks after the 1st Round. All that needs to happen is for Jake and Wade to each sign for over 50 mill. If not, we receive picks after the 2nd for them. At any rate, that's potentially an extra 3.5 mill added to our draft budget. With the system needing to be revamped, that's a very sizable amount of extra money to potentially have. Figure its something that COULD play into signing Cobb. If we can make a trade early in the off season and are just looking for a 5th guy.....I think they'd look into other options than Cobb, at that point. 1) Because of the QO and its effects and 2) If we add a longterm pitcher, it gives us 4 guys with 3 years left or more already. I doubt they'd actually want to carry 5 guys with that type of commitment. Could see them valuing some flexibility. While rambling, here's another thing.....I got myself all hyped up about Jarrod Dyson, due to his defense and base running. But, I'm not so sure we don't already have that guy, in Leonys Martin. Could we keep him at the 4.9 he's projected in arb? Or try to sign him for slightly less? He's damn good in the OF and on the bases. His bats not good, but its likely not AS bad as it was in 2017 either. He's younger than Dyson by a few years and won't cost as much either. I'm starting to think he's not such a bad option. If Happ gets dealt, you'd have Schwarber/Almora/Heyward out there, with Martin and Zobrist as the backups basically. He kind of fits, with that alignment, as a guy that's a defensive replacement/pinch runner, that's probably going to find himself starting 50 games or so, from days off, match ups, injury or whatever. I get where having something MUCH better in that spot would be great, but I can see how he's a decent fit to stick around.

I keep coming back to our deal for Quintana, when it comes to Archer. I don't see those two far from each other in value. If you compare packages, I think its easy to say Cease and Alzolay are valued around the same. If anything, Cease with his past surgery and being lower down on the food chain.....Could even make Alzolay slightly more valuable. Yes, Eloy is a better prospect than Happ. But, Happ is already showing success in the majors and can play multiple positions, including 2B and CF, while Eloy is a corner OF. Again, Eloy is the better option, but I don't think they're ridiculously far off either at this exact point. The 3rd and 4th pieces in the Quintana deal were non prospects, guys like Caratini and Zagunis are at least major league caliber guys. Not a big deal, but they're something. Anyway, that's my reasoning on the Archer deal, fwiw.

Unless, of course, you're talking about trading for Ed Archer, Chris' older, much less talented and successful brother. I used Archer, thinking of Alzolay being a top 100 guy. I saw one of the MLBTR guys say Russell and Schwarber was "light" on Archer. I surely hope the horsefeathers not lol. At any rate, if that package can't get him, I still believe Happ is the lead piece in whatever deal we make. Same package for Manaea and Hendriks? That's a step down, maybe its more in line though?

I still think Morrow and McGee are better FAs than all these guys. I’d also like Neshek but if Oh is healthy go that way. IIRC I might like Cishek, it’s late. McGee’s getting way undersold, last season was impressive with that HR rate. Is Reed still a pop up and whiffs guy now with the low walk rate? Too lazy to look Yeah, Reed only has about a 40% GB rate. If it weren't for his usage in the playoffs, I'd be all about Morrow. I could still make myself happy with him, but he's scary as horsefeathers, after what? 14 appearances in 15 games or something like that. I like McGee. I am more likely to be happy with Duke or Logan on a one year deal though. McGee seems like he's due for another TJS. But again, if we wound up with Morrow and McGee, I'd be just fine. But hoping we added a 3rd guy too.

Might as well start this thing now. There's lots of options, lots of ways for us to go, this offseason..... My guess is this is what we'll add.... Backup Catcher Position Player that takes a roster spot of a guy we deal for pitching 2 Starting Pitchers(one thru trade) 2 Right Handed Relievers and 1 Lefty Reliever I also feel we'll add 1 or 2(my true guess)Starting Pitchers that can start off in EXST or at AAA. Obviously, my roster makeup will be different than others will be. I think Theo is going to be extremely active and I'm not sure we'll even stay under the luxury tax, but I think the goal will be to try anyway. But, I think they'll definitely be over in 2019. Here are our monetary commitments from Cots for 2018, then arb estimates from MLBTR for those guys....(rounded up) RF Heyward 28.2 SP Lester 27.5 2B Zobrist 16.5 SP Quintana 8.9 1B Rizzo 7.3 RP Strop 5.9 Total 94.3 Arb Guys 3B Bryant 8.9 RP Rondon 6.2 SP Hendricks 4.9 CF Martin 4.9 RP Wilson 4.3 RP Grimm 2.4 SS Russell 2.3 2B Seal Boy 1.0 Total 34.9 I'm figuring Rondon, Martin, and Grimm are Non Tendered myself. That drops 13.5 from that figure.(21.4) Total Payroll Figure 115.7 plus pre-arb contracts Pre-Arb guys that all make 600-700k or so.... C Contreras 2B Baez 2B/OF Happ LF Schwarber RP Montgomery RP Edwards My roster before additions is..... C Contreras 1B Rizzo 2B Baez La Stella SS Russell 3B Bryant LF Schwarber Zobrist CF Almora RF Heyward Happ SP Lester, Hendricks, Quintana BP Montgomery, Strop, Edwards, Wilson Others on the 40 Man C Caratini, Davis OF Hannemann, Zagunis P Butler, Zastryzny, Maples, Farrell, Underwood, Mills, Tseng Free Agents C Avila, Rivera OF Jay SP Arrieta, Lackey BP Duensing, Davis, Uehara Everyone's obviously going to want Ohtani, so I'm not going to put him on my off season predictions. He makes things too easy. Of course I want him though. Just figure odds aren't great and there's a chance he's not even going to be posted anyway.....Using him in this makes it too easy. Anyway, these are PREDICTIONS, not necessarily what I'd do..... Free Agent Signings Alex Cobb 4/48 Addison Reed 3/30(think he'll get more per year than MLBTR) Pat Neshek 2/16(think he'll get more too) Zach Duke 1/5 Rene Rivera 1/3 Jarrod Dyson 2/12 Tyson Ross 1/2 with incentives Trades Happ, Alzolay, Caratini, and Zagunis for Archer(6.3)and Boxberger(1.9) Opening Day Roster C Contreras, Rivera 1B Rizzo 2B Baez, La Stella SS Russell 3B Bryant LF Schwarber CF Almora, Dyson RF Heyward, Zobrist SP Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Archer, Cobb BP Reed, Neshek, Strop, Edwards, Montgomery, Boxberger, Duke, Wilson Payroll at 173.4 heading into the year..... I know we'll make more than one trade, but its all I've got on my first one. My guess is we'll make a small deal or two for more pitching depth. Anyway, I don't think we'll go into the year with a true "closer", but we've got guys like Reed, Wilson(if he's fixed)and Boxberger that have some closing experience anyway. Anyway, that's my first guess at how things look in February. What's yours look like?

From a value standpoint, on the relievers, I'd go like this....Based on their contracts here. 1. Neshek 2/12 2. Shaw 3/21 3. Cishek 2/14 4. Watson 2/12 5. Reed 4/32(don't like 4 years, but I think he's a bargain at 8 per) Morrow at 3/24 would have been 2 or 3 if the playoffs didn't happen.

Yeah, they're not looking like they'll make it too much longer, in my mind.

Too much for Darvish. Don't think we're going after a nine figure guy personally. The bullpen figures are very interesting, but instead of Reed at 4/32 and McGee at 3/18, I'll take Shaw at 3/21, Neshek at 2/12, and just bring Duensing back for 3-4 mill on a one year deal. If you could get Cobb AND Chatwood, at those figures, it'd be nice. But, you'd need to add an extremely solid depth guy, on top of Monty. And even then, I'd think the rotation was solid, but not exciting. I think we've got to make that trade still.

Its the money he's still owed, in my mind. At 3/59, where's the excess value?(and I hate that term) By the way, I know you're not saying you're all in on getting Shark. You may be right on Cobb's money, I was originally thinking the exact same as you. The market COULD see him get a huge deal. But, I'm listening to the MLBTR guys and Jeff Sullivan, who are projecting 4/48 and 3/36 respectively. Basing it on his injury history and the innings per year he's pitched. Using McCarthy as the highest anyone's ever gotta, that's comparable. We'll see. My very first inclination was 4/64, but hearing those guys thoughts has me thinking less now. Also, seeing teams current payrolls.....I just don't see lots of money being thrown around this off season. Something else to at least consider with Shark.....He's underperformed his peripherals 4 of his 6 seasons starting and the other two years, they were basically in line. So, I wonder if some teams may look at him as a guy that's typically not going to pitch to his periphs? May be a reach, I'm not sure..... I don't think the Giants are going to rebuild, but I do see them shuffling some things around. They could move him, just to reallocate some money in different areas. They're at 180 or so, payroll-wise already, and supposedly view Cain, as their big target. I've seen him projected at 4/76. Add that, subtract Shark, add a FA starter in the 10 range? No idea, just trying to figure out where they're headed.....They're not long from needing to blow things up.

Man, if Dunn could learn to shoot.....He'd be a VERY interesting piece himself. As it is, I'm still hopeful he develops into a true starter caliber player.

I'm sure the Braves or Phillies or someone is going to spend on Darvish. But, I seriously think the WS is going to keep the Dodgers away. I've shied away from even mentioning the top end FA for us, but I'm very curious as to what his price tag winds up being now.

Being reliable is a very good thing. 200 innings a year does matter. But, he's just not good enough to warrant giving up a 23 year old(22 most of the season)that's already OPS'd .842 in over 400 PA in the majors. His value is far more than the top 50ish prospect he went into 2017 as. He's produced at a higher level than was expected and after watching him, it should continue. The Cubs(and others) can take a look at Cobb for the 4/48 or less it'll take to sign him, Lance Lynn at 4/60 or 5/75 and not give anything but money. Or look at the Chatwoods and other lesser pitchers that you conceivably could sign a pair for and get you those same 200 innings at very close to the same production level. And keep the young hitter that can likely be a lead piece for a much more interesting target than Shark. I'm fine with trading for Shark, but he's not worth that kind of a return, at his contract especially. And we don't need it to be paid down.

25 and 8 in the tank W for Lauri.

I've thought about Harvey, but I wonder if the Mets would give him away? If not, I'd definitely want no part of him. Its sad to say, based on what he was, but I think we'll get 2 guys considerably better than him this off season.

I've got no idea on where they go from a bullpen standpoint, but my GUESS is they're not going to be in on Davis, unless its short term. Based on Theo's comments about finding guys that don't walk people.....I'll say we get Addison Reed. Maybe 3/30 or so? I've seen him projected at up to 4/32. I kind of suspect he'll get a bit more than that personally. And I think they'll get Neshek at 2/18 or so. Then add a lefty on a one year deal. Duensing maybe, maybe Boone Logan, maybe Zach Duke....

I think its extremely likely we get Cobb and trade for a young guy with control too. I also expect Tyson Ross or some other reclamation long shot and probably another Butler type move too. Theo said Monty is going to be in the same role as this year.

Almora would seem to make sense there, they need a CF and think they have said they want to get better on defense. Don’t know if he’s enough but at least a likely starting point. Secondly, does Tyler Beede have any value anymore? He could be a nice second/third SP added this offseason. It really comes down to how much they want to move his contract, and if they are rebuilding. If they are in rebuild mode, I could actually see starting a package with Happ as possibly a decent starting point (not suggesting Happ alone, as Shark would likely get a nice return for them). The only problem, in hypothetical scenarios, with offering OF's is that they are loaded with OF's that are close (Slater - sorta their version of Happ/Reynolds/Duggar/Shaw - should be at first). Almora might hold more intrigue in that regards, as he's clearly better CF than almost all their close guys, with the exception of maybe Duggar. You think Shark brings back MORE than just Happ? I don't think theres any way we'd deal Happ straight up for Shark, much less give up more. He's making almost 20 mill a year. He's solid, but he's not an upper echelon pitcher either. If he's available, I can't imagine him bringing back a huge return, unless its to a team that needs his contract paid down heavily, which we don't. I don't think we'd even deal Almora for him. A deal starting with Alzolay, with another guy or two from our top 10(even with our system being down) should be plenty to get Shark. If not, then no thanks. Move on to the next.

They supposedly want to move Stanton, Gordon, and Prado. That takes them pretty close to where they want to be, payroll-wise. Jeter and this group just came in. They're already starting off by trading away Stanton. They're not going to throw Yelich into a deal that would take his value down, on top of that. I'm not even saying they won't trade him. But, they're not going to hurt his value by throwing him in with a contract as awful as Chen's.

If by some chance, White gets healthy enough to play....Play him. We need to see if he can play and if he can stay remotely healthy anyway. Right now, we know nothing about him.