davell

I don't see any of Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, or Heyward going anywhere over the next period of time. I know some here think Javy can be dealt. The depth and defense he provides is too great and has been mentioned by Theo way too often. Plus, if the bat takes a single step forward, it makes it to where no one wants to deal him. The one caveat here is if Happ looks great, maybe it allows them to deal Javy. But, it comes at the expense of run prevention, so I honestly think Happ is the one that gets moved. Schwarber isn't going anywhere because the FO literally loves him. The makeup, his leadership, he's not going anywhere. Heyward can't go anywhere. The rest aren't going anywhere obviously. Pitching is whatever. Lester is obviously staying put. Pitchers being pitchers though, no one else is safe. Yes, trades are going to be a key going forward. But, I STILL don't believe they'll make a high profile Archer type pitching trade, until I see it. I think its much more likely we find our pitching, outside of FA,mostly from finding a longterm rotation piece from the Butler, Kelly, Perez type moves that they continually make. If they DO make a relatively large trade for a SP, I don't see it taking away from our major league roster. I think Eloy is here to eventually be a Cub. The rest are all conceivably going to be moved. My complete GUESS at how our rotation looks in 2019..... Lester(as our 4 due to regression), Hendricks(as our 2) Major FA signing(as our 1)one of Montgomery, Clifton, Cease, De La Cruz, Butler, Kelly, Perez, or a reclamation we haven't begun yet(as our 3 that turns out to be a steal), and a short term FA type. With depth stacked behind them.

195 in 2017, 197 in 2018, 206 in 2019, 208 in 2020, 210 in 2021.....That's the LT numbers going forward. If we don't sign any other ML deals and keep our in-season moves to 15 mill or less, we probably reset ours this year. If we somehow go over, we head into 2018 with just 79 mill on the books. Needing to replace Arrieta, Lackey, Davis, Montero, Jay, Uehara, Anderson, Strop, and Duensing. We will have Rondon and Grimm in Arb 3. We will have Bryant, Hendricks, Russell, Seal Boy, and Szczur in Arb 1. So, that's the year it makes sense for us to make a big ticket buy. Especially since the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox look extremely likely to sit out the offseason mostly, to reset their LT. Assuming normal 2018 production, here's why we aren't likely to spend heavily in 2019.... At this exact point, we have Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, and Rizzo under contract at 71.2 mill. Let's say we DO add a big FA in 2018 at 24.8, to take that to an even 96. If Grimm is around, he's in Arb 4. But forget him. You've got KB at a very possible 15 mill. Hendricks may be at 10. Russell too. That's 131 mill right there. With Schwarber, Baez, Montgomery, and possibly another guy or to, hitting Arb 1. You're sitting around 145 and needing to fill out half a roster for 60 mill. The bottom line is our youngsters are going to really start eating up payroll. Cool, because they're awesome. They're still getting better too. Even WITHOUT huge FA help, we're set up as well or better than any of these other teams. The true key here is with the penalties that are set up, its going to the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox or anyone else from grabbing more than one or two(at most) of these big FA coming up over the next few years. We do NOT have the Yankees or Dodgers money. Its laughable to think otherwise. But it doesn't even matter. We're all going to be stuck in the same payroll area for this entire CBA. No one is going to pay the tax AND take the penalties in place too. If a team hits 230 mill in payroll between 2018 and thru the 2021 season, I'll be surprised. And if one does, it'll be during the 2021 season. Or just for one season in those years, with the ability to reset the following season. Its a soft cap. And we're set up great for it.

So, our rotation depth looks like one of Anderson/Montgomery, Butler, Perez, Kelly, and Zastryzny. With Buchanan and Brooks at 11 and 12.

Am I reading that wrong? It seems that's an Illinois state bill, not a national one. Right; the "more teams" part is referring to other teams based in Illinois. This wouldn't just impact football. And Smith kind of insinuates this isn't something that's out there in other states yet.(My interpretation anyway). I wonder what the odds are of it passing? Seriously, football kind of makes me feel dirty to watch, as it is. Adding something like this, while seeing these 80 year old goblins sitting in their boxes, eating catered five star meals, cheering while their players are shortening their lives.....And them supporting it, by tightening up medical even more? I'd probably be done.

Meh Glennon is low ceiling QB. Not saying he's bad but if you're signing him you are still looking for your QB of the future. I'm not necessarily arguing that. But, he was considered a rather high upside type as a 3rd round pick. He's just 27 and hasn't played in 2 seasons, after being average prior to that. On a team that wasn't exactly good. Are we SURE he is as good as he's going to be? Its more of a question for me of how SURE we are on Garoppolo. If he's average(or worse), we're STILL likely stuck with him for 2 years AND you're out some solid picks too. I'd rather just be stuck with an average QB and not having already spent up pick collateral on the position, than the opposite. I'm asking. I haven't watched Glennon since college, where I kind of liked him. If the upside of these guys is even close to the same, I'd rather take the guy that just costs money. Because it'd at least be easier to stomach making a high pick at the spot the following year, if you haven't already done it the prior one too. Is Garappolo's true upside THAT much more than Glennon's is?

Is there anything about the McCaskeys that doesn't suck? Am I reading that wrong? It seems that's an Illinois state bill, not a national one. If so......Good horsefeathering God.

Anyone think Glennon at 12 mill a year and keeping all your picks is conceivably as good of an option as trading assets for Garoppolo?

The Cubs do not have Dodger or Yankee money. The Cubs don't truly have a firm grasp on what the new TV contract will look like. But its definitively NOT going to look like what the Dodgers got. Anyway, just a bit of common sense will allow you to realize that the Cubs long term team is going to look a whole lot like the current one. There's not room for many longterm mega deals, outside of paying our own. The new CBA kind of looks like its really trying to enforce a hard cap. If you're in the LT, you lose your 2nd and 5th round picks for signing a QO FA. You lose a 2nd, if you are not in the LT. If you're in the LT, you're also losing a million from your IFA pool. Its 500,000 if you're not. If you're in the LT and LOSE a player via FA that is a QO guy, you receive a pick after the 4th Round for him. If that same guy is on a team NOT in the LT, you receive a pick after the 1st or 2d round, depending on how much e signs for. Then, you have the actual LT.....1st time offenders will pay a 20% tax on the overage. Its 30% for a 2nd straight year, and 50%, for a 3rd. These are increases from the last CBA. Technically, these numbers won't KILL you, if you hang out within 10-15 mill of the cap. Although losing the picks, IFA money, etc.....That'd suck. However, there is also an additional 12% tax, when your team is between 20-40 million over the cap. You do that 3 times on the upper end of it, its costing you an additional 25+ mill a season, PLUS all the rest. If this STILL doesn't sway you, there's a 90% percent tax on going over by more than 40 mill. Plus, you lose 10 spots to your 1st round pick automatically. This CBA is why ALL teams are desperately trying to reset their LT. They have to be under this year or next year, in order to go after that big 2018, Harper-led class. Or watch themselves basically pay him 50% more than other teams have to. People still poo on the loss of picks, IFA money, etc. Sorry, you're wrong. Its important in today's game. Sure, there's a time to do it. But its not something a team is going to continually do, year in and year out. The LT is set up for teams to go over on occasion, but stay in that area within 20 mill. I'll be very surprised to see teams going over that baseline at ANY point during this CBA. Owners aren't going to give away 20-30 mill, PLUS get penalized in other ways too. And no team is hitting the worst area of the LT ever. Take a quick look at OUR roster and you see Lester and Heyward are 20+ mill currently. You're going to be able to spend 20+ on ONE SP, at some point. That gets your current Arrieta money taken up longterm. The pre-arb guys will get expensive soon. As I mentioned at one point, KB will literally go from under a mill to over 10 in one off season. And he's a 20 mill guy possibly by his 3rd Arb year, well over by his 4th. Russell may be making 15-20 mill by his last Arb year. Hendricks is going to get expensive. Javy might too. Schwarber will. Thank god we have Rizzo cheap. Start adding these guys escalating prices into our payroll, plus regular, non elite additions.....We've probably got room for ONE elite FA, over this CBA. If we plan to hold onto our core group. And I'm sure we do.

This is hilarious. That dumbass showed up here expecting sympathy. It probably is him. Whether it is, or not, that dude sucked. Seriously, what an asshat.

If you move from 3 to 20, you're very likely going to pick up a 1st from next year in the package. A package of 20, 52, a 4th, and next years 1st is decently in line, value-wise. If you then trade for Garoppolo, I'd think 36, a 4th(you'd have 3 at this stage) and a future 3rd, that could move to another 2nd with performance, conceivably would be enough to get him. You'd then have Garoppolo, pick 20, pick 52, your normal picks the rest of this draft, and an extra 1st next year. I could be OK with a scenario like that. But most huge draft deals involve either the 1st or 2nd pick.

If Cleveland or San Fran wants him, they pick in front of us and can outbid us. Garoppolo obviously isn't worth a HIGH 1st rounder under any circumstance. So, if a team that's also looking for a QB, like Houston, likes him.....They can move pick 25. Which also beats us. The good news is barring a massive overpay, which I don't see Pace doing, is we're kind of in no mans land with picks, for acquiring him anyway.

I don't understand that line of thinking. If I were to knowingly break the law and hack into the competitions databases I'm sure as hell not telling my boss, I'm going to pass off their work as my own in order to try to further my career. Correa has said other people did know. I understand where you're coming from. But I find it very hard to believe he wouldn't find out, if others knew. Someone would have sold him out, if anything else. My feeling is that quiteca few teams would take that advantage, if they thought they'd get away with it.

I guess we signed Carlos Corporan. He didn't play in the majors last year though. Still, thats likely all we'd add. Good memory man.

Nah, the old Colorado one.

I get that our roster looks really solid. I get that we've already released a list of NRI's, I'm not sure if we did that because we're done scouring or not.....But I assume we're not. So, what kind of depth moves are out there, that you'd be interested in? Keep in mind where we are as far as the luxury tax threshold.....We sit at 159.7 currently. The tax is 195. However, we still need to add Strop to that. Probably in the 5's. We also need to add our pre arb guys. That includes KB, Javy, Addy, Schwarber, Hendricks, Seal Boy, Monty, Almora, Contreras, Carl, and maybe a few more. That's probably another 6 or 7 mill. Let's say that puts us at 172. From there, from everything I can tell, we use our draft budget in the luxury tax too. So, now we sit at 179. We added close to 15 last year in season. That'd put us at 194, coming in 1 mill under. Now, its not a NECESSITY to get under THIS year. But, it is for this year OR next year. With the FA class at that point and the penalties that'll start to accrue, due to the CBA. Every team is going to reset. So, if we reset NOW, then that leaves us 15 mill to play with, from here thru the season. Making a Jerry Blevins or Boone Logan addition right now, a pretty interesting expenditure, for a multitude of reasons. Still, I'm sure our FO is bargain hunting, so who knows? Depth Catcher Do we need a guy behind Contreras and Montero? Can Schwarber be that guy right now? I'd guess no. But, its kind of hard to bet against him lol. We have Caratini, who'll be in Iowa. But, I'd guess he needs a full season there. So, its like looking for our next Fedorowicz. Hank Conger, Brayan Pena......That's what's out there, that seems realistic and I'm too lazy to look at their pitch framing stats. This isn't a huge need, but I could see a vet pickup between now and the end of ST. Outfield Depth We're heavy here. We've got lots of options. But I'd love to see if Desmond Jennings has anything left. I always liked him and think he'd respond to our staff positively. There's plenty of guys left out there. So, you guys may see someone else that fits your flyer profile..... Coghlan, Gentry, Raburn, Bourn, Fuld, Stubbs.....That's your list of guys basically. Starting Pitching This group falls into the same thing as Logan and Blevins. My GUESS is Anderson is the "big" money guy for us. But my guess is we're still looking for more depth, all the same..... Henderson Alvarez, De La Rosa, Eovaldi, Colby Lewis, Williams Perez, Niese, CJ Wilson....... There's other guys too, but that's the group I'm interested in. Especially Alvarez. He supposedly looks good too. No idea what itd take for him, but I'd love to see an incentive laden deal somehow. I'd like Eovaldi, but knowing he's counting against the cap and you're getting nothing from him in 2017, puts a damper on him, for me. Niese intrigues me. But I'd think he can find an easier path to a rotation. Perez is pure depth, but he fits us fairly well, as a 7th-10th type of AAA stash. Bullpen We've got a full group. But we COULD still use a lefty, I guess. Although, we know Uehara's splits. And Butler could also allow us to move Rob Z back into the pen too. As could any other additional starting depth. Aaron Barrett, Matt Belisle, Kevin Jepsen, David Hernandez, Luke Hochevar These are the righties. There's more, but I left off guys that can get multi year deals or that may be given a shot at closing, like Romo. I really like Barrett as an NRI, with incentives. But I'm sure quite a few teams do. We already added Jim Henderson and Fernando Rodriguez, who are good enough to pitch in the majors. So, it may be greedy, to think any of this group can't find a better opportunity than here. But, I'd love to add as much as possible. Especially since I suspect we'll manipulate the 10 Day DL and involve lots of guys for our pen, even if try stay healthy. Blevins, Logan, Wood, Furbush Just went over the reasons we may not want to give out 6-7 mill a year(for 2-3 years probably) on Blevins or Logan. But, I could see them saying they'll worry about the tax the following year too, when we lose Miggy, Jake, Lackey, Jay, Davis, Uehara, Anderson, and Strop off the payroll.... So anyway, that's kind of the list. We ARE set to head into ST right now, as well as anyone. But a tweak or three, especially NRI's, seems very plausible. Any positions you want addressed? Any guys in particular you like that's still out there?

That was mentioned by him from the start actually. But, there's no basis for it. I'm pissed that theres no proof of who he talked to. There's no way in hell Mozeliak wasn't aware of this.

No idea. Probably around a mill or so? But, we are not able to sign guys for more than 300,000 anyway.

Love the move, since he evidently has an option. MLBDepthcharts was off on that. As a 7th SP, he's solid. Plus, I like the Cahill idea.

Yeah, they were implying that we didn't want teams fixating on trying to trade for him. It makes sense. The Yankees were evidently stuck on Schwarber being part of a Miller deal. Meanwhile, they accepted Frazier and Sheffield, with spare parts, for him from the Indians.....I'd figure Torres plus(Cease, Clifton, or De La Cruz) would have basically been in the same realm.....But they may have told us there was no chance on Miller, without Schwarber. The way teams view trading fascinates me and we obviously don't know what they ask for, but I'd like to think we tried hard on Miller, considering what it took for him. Just an example of why keeping Albertos a secret, making trades a bit less complicated, seems very plausible.

Law and Longenhagen have history together, but its cool that each of them today said they think De La Cruz has a good shot at breaking out. And that the Cubs may have held Albertos back because they didn't want teams clamoring for him at the deadline. Longenhagen mentioned he heard Bailey Clark made some changes that could allow for him to advance as a starter too. We're going to be pitching-heavy in prospects moving forward.

Yeah, the picks in the 30's are pretty solid. In the end, its going to come down to who we like and how many of this group do we feel can eventually be our guy. If its ANY of Kizer, Trubisky, Watson, and Mahomes......A decent scenario may be trading down a few spots from 3. Then, using the extra picks, to move back into the 1st(if we need to), to secure getting one of the 4. But, I'm OK missing out on this group completely. Not a scout obviously. I think I go Watson, Mahomes, Kizer, and Trubisky, in that order, for now.....So, I may be skewed a bit as it is, thinking there's at least a decent shot one of my top 2 falls to us(or close) at 36.

Yeah......That's not what I said, especially when literally mentioning taking one at 36, right behind that. The point is its a crapshoot. Using the 3rd overall pick on a QB? Looking at these numbers? Not smart. Much better use of a pick. I do think you should take a guy every year though.

QB's taken at 3 since 1980 Blake Bortles, Vince Young, Matt Ryan, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Steve McNair, Heath Shuler, Jim Everett QB's taken in 1st round since 2000 2016-Goff-1, Wentz-2, Lynch-26 2015- Winston-1, Mariota-2 2014- Bortles-3, Manziel-22, Bridgewater-32 2013- Manuel-16 2012-Luck-1, Griffin-2, Tannehill-8, Weeden-22 2011-Newton-1, Locker-8, Gabbert-10, Ponder-12 2010-Bradford-1, Tebow-25 2009-Stafford-1, Sanchez-5, Freeman-17 2008-Ryan-3, Flacco-18 2007-Russell-1, Quinn-22 2006-Young-3, Leinart-10, Cutler-11 2005-Alex Smith-1, Rodgers-24, Campbell-25 2004- Eli Manning-1, Rivers-4, Roethlisberger-11, Losman-22 2003-Palmer-1, Leftwich-7, Boller-19, Grossman-22 2002- Carr-1, Harrington-3, Ramsey-32 2001-Vick-1 2000-Pennington-18 That's 45 guys. I give 19 of them passes, after the fact. Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Bridgewater, Tannehill, Luck, Newton, Bradford, Stafford, Ryan, Flacco, Cutler, Rodgers, Alex Smith, Roethlisberger, Manning, Rivers, Palmer, and Vick. And some of them are obviously questionable, especially based on where in the 1st they were picked. Other notable QB's 2016-Prescott-135(maybe more) 2015-Semian-250(maybe more) 2014-Carr-36, Garappolo-62 2013-Glennon-73 2012-Osweiler-57, Wilson-75, Cousins-102 2011-Dalton-35, Kaepernick-36, Taylor-180 2010-None 2009-None 2008-Henne-57, Flynn-209 2007-Kolb-36 2006-None 2005-Orton-106, Anderson-213, Cassel-230, Fitzpatrick-250 2004-Schaub-90, L.McCown-106 2003-None 2002-J.McCown-81, Garrard-108 2001-Brees-32, Weinke-106 2000-Bulger-168, Brady-199 Obviously, I listed some guys here that weren't much. But, they all at least had some starts, maybe produced for a period of time. A pretty decent amount of franchise types from that group too. I'm far from the only guy that's not a fan of this QB group. Looking at how much of a crap shoot drafting a QB early is, I'm absolutely not thinking picking 1 at 3 is a good idea. Draft one every damn year. Its better to throw away a 3rd day pick, than it is to pass up what likely has much better odds of turning into an impact player, inside the top 5. Hell, take one at 36. But, this horsefeathers looks like its not much better odds than drafting a pitcher high in the draft. I'd just never truly looked before.

I mean, you can think Fox wants a QB at 3, if you want. I seriously doubt he does, when he's here to win immediately. We obviously disagree on the value of these QB's. And you are completely fine with taking a guy at 3, even if he's barely projected as a 1st rounder, which I also disagree with, due to us not being hamstrung into HAVING to take one this year. The Broncos and Jags are in the QB market now or next year, if Bottles falls on his face again. So those coaches STILL will get THEIR guy anyway. The Rams are so bad and Goff is too, that it wouldn't shock me to see them scrap everything too next year. However, if you take a QB now and he doesn't work out, you're stuck hiring a head coach and still allowing him another QB too.....Which sets you back again. And is a pitiful use of resources too. Pace knows its better for HIM, to wait for his next coach and use them in tandem. In the meantime, he can give Fox all the ammo he can, to win now too. And a QB at 3, isn't part of that, since its an extremely valuable asset that you're not likely to get immediate production from. I'm not a fan of this group of QB's. If one of Watson, Kizer, Trubisky, or Mahomes is around at 36? horsefeathers yeah, take him. Trade down to a spot you can still get your guy? I'll even buy that. But I'm not of the mindset that ANY of this group is worth pick 3. And I'm not ready to reach, just to fill the need, THIS draft. You can address it in FA, you can still take a guy during the draft, AND you can address it AGAIN the following year, if its still a need. In what shapes up currently to be a much better group anyway. I do respect your football views. I know you know your stuff. But we aren't going to agree on this one. In the end, it'll be interesting to see who winds up being right.

Its a very common viewpoint that a veteran coaching staff isn't going to want to hinge their prospects on a rookie signal caller. Do you REALLY think Pace is going to turn Fox into a lame duck coach BEFORE the season begins? I do not see that happening.(even if I'm OK with it) Pace very likely DOES get a new coaching hire and a top pick on a QB to spend as well, before he's shown the door. I'm just being realistic. Is it more likely he uses them in unison and he let's this coaching staff have that QB and then likely having to put his own job on the line by throwing that same high pick into another offense, coaching staff, and everything..... Or to let his next coach get the guy HE likes and give the kid the best chance to succeed, by not pulling therug out from under him immediately. Sorry man, but they're not giving Fox a QB at 3, when its definitely not his desired pick. And you're not hamstringing yourself either, if you're Pace, by having a young QB you HAVE to build around......Knowing your next coach has to inherit that guy, whether he likes him or not. You're going to let THAT guy collaborate and make that pick with you.