davell

This is where horsefeathers sucks lol. Do you mean effing QB's or sh*tty QB's? And if its the latter, who in this class do you spend a pick on, since you're not wanting to use 3 on one?

You guys will probably disagree with this, but assuming we don't take a QB at 3 and don't trade back up or have one of the top 4 fall to us at 36.....The best option, in my mind, is spending our 5th on Chad Kelly. Reasons He's got more talent than Webb, Peterman, or Kaaya. It allows us to add more impact at other spots. It gives us a better use of resources if we need to still take a guy in the 1st in 2018 He's got a very realistic chance to improve his value initially, even if he never takes a regular season snap for us. Is Fox the guy to be able to control him? Probably not. But, I do think he'd keep out of trouble at first anyway. And if the focus turns to his talent, we could turn that 5th round pick into a nice trade piece pretty quickly. In my mind, he's a stock that likely goes up a good bit, before it falls off or stabilizes. Just seems like a good initial gamble, even if I would never expect him to actually play for the Bears. And if we're going to gamble at QB in this draft, take the one with the most upside. Too hot of a take? Or what?

Raw, I got way too cute with trades. I'm just so horsefeathering jealous of how many picks Cleveland has, yet our "rebuild" consists of a normal allotment of picks every year. I agree on S, I probably shouldn't have moved pick 131 for a future pick and used it on Lorenzo Jerome.

Have you seen this article by one of the Browns FO? https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/ The old chart that everyone looks at originates from Jimmy Johnson's days at Dallas. This puts the #3 pick at 2200 points. #1 is 3000. You're all aware of this one. For example, look at a Jet's trade up to 3 #3 = #6 + #38 + #102 1, 3, 4 to move up 3 spots The new one in the link could been seen as the Brown's chart. The implication is that top picks are highly overvalued and mid-round picks are undervalued. #3 is the Browns chart is 401 points. #3 = #6 + #166 (or #134 if it takes a slight premium) 1, 5 or 6 A more extreme example might be seen by trading further down in Round 1. Let's use the Broncos at pick 20. They have a lot of mid round picks that will make matching up values easier. Regular Chart #3 = 20 + 52 + 80 + 101 + 126 + 177 + 203 + 252 + 253 + still short by 600 points OR #3 = 20 + 52 or 80 + 2018 1st round pick Browns Chart #3 + 131 (5th rounder) = 20 + 51 + 101 It would be pretty fascinating to see each team's chart. The chart is interesting. But wow, it devalues the cost of moving around in the draft. Maybe in a year like this, where there's lots of players with little separation, you could use it. In the end, its still just supply and demand. Its a bit rare to see trades match up perfectly with the JJ chart, but it'd be cool to see how teams charts differ. My guess is not much, since there's obviously tons of draft deals.

I think that IF Szczur goes, we'll get SOMETHING for him. Either a low level arm with some semblance of upside(Erling Moreno type in a different system) or an up and down reliever(Felix Pena type). He's a pretty decent player. I think he'd be a lock on most MLB teams 25 man, so I do think there'd be a decent amount of interest in him. That being said, my guess is we'll find a mysterious injury to DL him or someone else actually needs a DL stint. Realistically, I just doubt its going to be THAT hard juggling our position guys. Especially if we don't keep Caleb Smith.

I expect we'll trade down. Just in later rounds and not from 3. I don't think we'll find a team willing to give up even most of what value supposedly is.... I think we'll take defense at 3. Thomas, if he's there. Adams or Allen, if he's not. 36 is very interesting. My guess is we DO trade that pick. And honestly, it can go either up or back. Here's my guess.....If one of the top 4 QB's is still on the board late in the 1st(personally I think 2 make it past pick 24), then a trade up becomes a serious possibility, if the price isn't too steep. If the price IS too steep or they're gone by that stage, I think we'll move back 10-20 spots, add a 3rd or future picks, and take one of Webb, Peterman, or Kaaya. My personal Bears Mock at this point..... 3) Edge- Solomon Thomas 36) Trade down w/ Cleveland to 52- add pick 108, plus 3rd next year. 52) QB- Davis Webb 67) Trade down with Houston to 89- add pick 131, plus 3rd next year. 89) CB- Sidney Jones 108) TE- Jordan Leggett 111) OT- Julie'n Davenport 117) WR- Taywan Taylor 131) Trade for 4th next year to Rams 147) DL- Eddie Vanderdoes 221) S- Tedric Thompson Full Draft- Edge- Thomas, QB- Webb, CB- Jones, TE- Leggett, OT- Davenport, WR- Taylor, DL- Vanderdoes, S- Thompson Add Cleveland and Houston 3rds next year and the Rams 4th..... Thomas has versatility and as much upside as anyone. Webb isn't a world beater, but he's got nice potential and allows us to still take a 1st Rd QB in 2018, if neither Glennon or Webb look like the future QB....Jones may not last this long, since his injury doesn't appear to be that severe.....But, he's tremendous value at 89, in this case. Leggett is a future starter, likely by mid season and is a weapon. Davenport is a love him/hate him type. Loads of potential, will need to develop. Taylor is an excellent slot guy. Feel confident he can take over that role from Wright in 2018. Vanderdoes intrigues me. He didn't make it all the way back from his ACL in 2016. But it may be that he just needs to drop 20 pounds. He's got a shot at being worth way more than the 4th-5th Rd pick he's getting drafted at. Thompson is a sleeper. Not a great hitter, but a ball hawk. I may be a round or two light on his eventual draft position. But I've seen him mocked this late too.

I'll gladly take them, unless we're polling. If I've got them, I'll take Fournette for them, to move this along.

There's literally no way we don't finish a game out of 8th. This horsefeathering team is stupid.

Seriously, think about the joy this kid brings us. The homer off Lackey. Was the NLDS MVP(if there was voting). Co-MVP of the NLCS. Homer in game 7 of the WS. Javy forever.

You're right, it WOULD be ridiculous if he becomes a very good pitcher. In actuality, he's winning a Cy Young.

Oh, he was throwing 95 his last outing. I project God Mode Eddie arrives May 2018.

And, am I picking for Jax? We've still got lots of teams unclaimed....

If we stay at 3, I agree those are the options. If we stay at 3, I think you can't take too many chances either. Lattimore has hamstring issues, Allen has shoulder issues. Hooker has the two surgeries and its not truly known if his hips will move exactly the same. Comes down to Thomas and Adams for me. I prefer Thomas, even if I do wonder if he's a great fit in a 3-4. Adams is a starter and leader from the beginning. I'm OK either way, but I vote Thomas. Without a trade down.

I don't know. If he hits decently on another draft, I guess so? If for no other reason than the organization needs to try and show at least a BIT of stability. I don't really care, one way or the other. Evidently there were some FA's that didn't seriously consider us due to the dead man walking coaching staff....That's directly on Pace. He made a few decent signings. He also made some bad ones this off season. At least they still have lots of flexibility? I'd rather have Gilmore and Wagner though, than money going forward. Alshon too. At the VERY least, you've got to head into next off season set up with a staff that's in place for a while. Assuming that's something different than our current group, it gives the new hire a lot of flexibility in building his team..... You can do that with or without Pace too. I just want the next guy to have the opportunity to draft his own QB.(assuming Glennon isn't the answer). If Glennon somehow works out, it may mean Fox had a good season and is extended. So, I kind of don't want that either.... New coach, let him pick his QB and give him a few years to work with him.....You're not likely getting the BEST coach you can, if you tell him your QB is(whoever)......Deal with it. And even with that, I DO want to draft a QB this year. Just not in the 1st. Which could make things very interesting. Because I've got a funny feeling that no QB is going inside the top 10. Cleveland MAY take one at 12. But only if they don't trade for Garoppolo, which I still think they do eventually. If Arizona takes the 1st QB at 13....I'll be surprised if one of the main 4 guys isn't sitting there at 36.....Which would make things interesting. It'd be hard for me to pass on any of them at 36, even if I want my next coach to have the chance to draft one in the 1st the following year.... Personally, I think we get one of Peterman, Webb, or Kaaya in the 3rd and bypass taking one of the 4 at 36, raising even more eyebrows.... Odd rant admittedly.....But, I don't know what to think of our situation. I want to like Pace. But, we should definitively NOT be a 3 win team, after year 2 and looking squarely at another losing season in year 3 as well. Yet, we are. Fox was a bad hire. I guess a GM gets a 2nd one, with a 1st round QB too? Don't know. In the end, I think I'd let Pace hire another coach and let him and that guy grab the QB they want. Only because we need to show a bit of stability. Firing Pace probably affects the caliber of GM candidates you may attract too, considering how short Pace and Emery had gotten, back to back.... Thank God for the Cubs. The Bears and Bulls are laughingstocks.

Either way, we've added the bulk of what we're adding, prior to the draft. So, what's up with the 3rd pick? Trade down? Seems to be the best option in my mind. Even if we do take slightly less than full value. Playing devils advocate though, I can see why people don't want a 3 win team to shy away from adding the biggest impact player possible. QB- I really think we'll take a QB at some point. But not at 3. And probably not at 36, in my opinion. Leaves it open to take one in the 1st in 2018, assuming the need is still there and gives the new coach his choice of guys, instead of making him be OK with whatever's already in place. Guess- 3rd or 4th Rounder, chance of a QB with top pick-5% OT- While I seriously doubt we'd take a Tackle at 3, I could see a trade down scenario where Bolles winds up as our top pick. He's got helium, we've tried adding in FA, and I guess its a slim possibility. Guess- We spend a late round pick on the spot, chance of an OT with top pick-5% WR- This looks like a huge weakness to me. No way we'd reach at 3 for one, but a trade down to the 7-12 range and I could see it. I think we're still going to add to the position somehow. Guess- We spend a pick here. Could be ANY of them though, chance of a WR with top pick-5% Defensive Line- We've not added here yet. We're connected to Allen. Thomas has serious helium. I'd say this is easily our best bet for our top pick. Guess- This IS my guess. And if its not in the 1st, I'd say there's a great chance its happening early, chance of a DL with top pick-50% Cornerback- Little doubt in my mind we use an early pick here too. A trade down makes this my top option. Getting Jackson in the 2nd is a hope of mine. Or Jones in the 3rd. Guess- 90% chance we use one of our 5 top 4 round picks here. 75% chance its 3rd round or higher, chance of a CB with our top pick-14% Safety- I'm not sold we'd want to pay top 3 money on the position. In fact, I'm not sure we'll even address the spot in the draft at all. But, there's 2 guys in Adams and Hooker that MAY be BPA at 3 too. So, I do think its a serious option with our top pick. Guess- Top pick or bust? Chance of a Safety with our top pick-20% Anything else- A trade down far enough could put Howard in the mix, I guess? Or Pace could go heel and just horsefeathers things up? Maybe Fournette intrigues them too much? Guess- Not much of a chance. Chance of a complete surprise-1%

Loved Buck's call of Miggy's bomb. In fact, I think I liked damn near all of Buck's work in the postseason.

37 inch vertical, 4.5 40. Ridiculous length. I think he's tailor made for FS.....Maybe it doesn't translate, but I'm happy to see this getting a shot. Not sure where he ran a 4.5, but his combine time was 4.68. Taken with his length, his athletecism is effective, but hes not quite what I would call super athletic. Eh, my memory was off then. Without looking, I was thinking it was low 4.5's at the combine. Tempers my excitement some and agree with your assessment now. Guess I'm still intrigued with the measurables though, might as well give him a shot.

Are we allowed to trade picks? I don't think we ever have done it, but it could be fun.....

37 inch vertical, 4.5 40. Ridiculous length. I think he's tailor made for FS.....Maybe it doesn't translate, but I'm happy to see this getting a shot.

Big guy, super athletic. I like this idea. And I could see Hall breaking out, with the move.

It may be light. Its really hard to gauge value of future picks. The rule of thumb is the value of a pick drops a rounds worth of points. But, from where? Is the Saints 2018 1st worth pick 11 of the 2nd round currently? The Saints have 11, 32, 43, 76, and 103.....Plus, their picks next year. 3=2200 Saints picks are worth 1,250, 590, 470, 210, and 78..... So, I'm guessing their 1st and 2nd next year are valued at 625 and 235. In THIS draft, I doubt there's going to be full value needed to trade though, due to lack of teams wanting to go up. After Garnett, I think there's a group of guys probably valued the same. 11 seems like a spot we'd have lots of flexibility.....Howard, Williams, and Davis are options there. Allen could conceivably drop there. Bolles or Ramcyzk. Humphrey. Hell, maybe even Hooker drops due to his injury.

I think the Saints could potentially be a good trade down candidate for us. They're riding Brees and trying to win in his last years....They're after defense. Trade 3 for 11, a 3rd this year, and their 1st next year.....It'd get the Saints the impact guy they want and still gives them the 32nd and 43rd picks to add more defense this year. For a better chance immediately. Gives us an extra 3rd this year and what likely amounts to a 10-20 range 1st next year..... If that doesn't work, the Saints have 11, 32, and 43.....Maybe there's other options too. Hell, maybe the Saints trade 32, 43, and their 1st AND 2nd next year to have both 3 and 11..... Anyway, Pace has the relationship with Loomis. I'd love to do a deal.

I'll take Jax as a 3rd team, if needed.

Holy horsefeathers. I hadn't checked here in a while. I figured it was getting bumped due to DWTS betting odds or something. David Ross got Rudied. Seriously. horsefeathering Rudied. Assholes don't get Rudied. Heroes don't get Rudied. You know who gets Rudied? horsefeathering Rudy, that's who. And David Ross. The next time someone gets Rudied, they'll call it getting Rossed.