craig

May be that they wanted both Wilson Contreras and Geiger to have the ability to play 3B every day. The normal principal is that the lesser prospect defers to the better. Assuming that Contreras was viewed as the better, Contreras got Boise and that meant Geiger got Mesa? The perception of "better" and "lesser" is of course fluid, so Geiger's power hitting and projected size might move him past Contreras, who's power seems projected rather than present. Contreras is really only half a year younger, so age isn't that much of a difference. I do have the sense that what's now is now, but that some perceptions were built during fall instrux and then carried over into XST. I suspect that Geiger didn't hit well earlier, and it wasn't until late in XST that he started to kick in. During many of the XST box scores, it seemed like Contreras was routinely batting 3rd while Geiger was batting 7th, 8th, or 9th, and Contreras was getting more hits while Geiger was K'ing more. But that doesn't seem to be how it's going currently, obviously.

Thanks, dave, I too have been wondering if they had really signed him, or if the report that Toronto had done so would be confirmed. This report twice says the Cubs, the latter time "confirmed", so I'm hoping the Toronto report was bogus (they seem to be signing scads of other guys....), and that indeed the Cubs have gotten him. $1.5, that's a pretty big ticket. Lets hope A that it's true, and B that their valuation is justified and he turns out to be a good player. I've got to give Hendry and Ricketts some credit. You've got a new owner who probably wants to get some traction and success. And a lame-duck GM. You'd think both would understandably wants some NOW success. So to be spending resources on 16-year-old Latin kids who are 8 years away from helping even if they ever do help is showing some nice discipline and long-term wisdom.

Rafael Lopez off to a quick start, hitting .400+ and with a HR already. Most noteworthy to me is only 1 K, 4BB/1K in his 24 AB. I think the draft reports suggested he was fairly gifted defensively, so there's a chance that if he does hit enough, that his defense won't hold him back. He's going to turn 24 this fall, so obviously his start is more necessary than surprising. And he hasn't been getting rusty for real long, since FSY was in the college playoffs for a while. And he's only 5'9", so the kind of HR power that often is needed to float both a good batting average and a good OPS seems somewhat doubtful. But I'm guessing that if he'd started slow, as an approaching-24-year-old, we'd have buried him pretty fast. The fact that he is hitting and making contact right out of the box keeps him on the map at least for now. My guess is that if he keeps producing, he'll get bumped up early enough to experience at least a full month of full-season ball. If he does and keeps hitting, then he might justify some interest. Two other hopeful points. The Cubs were seemingly drafting for talent, for big-league prospects without great concern with signing prices, before and after his selection. So I suspect they did see him as a big-league prospect, not just as an organizational roster-fill player. Second, the fact that he's so old must most certainly have worked against his draft value. Perhaps had he been 21 with no more physical projection left than he has now, he'd have been an 8th round pick and we'd be buzzed about his start and his prospects? But it was because he was so old that people kept passing on him, not because of his talents? We'll see. Would be fun if he's just a capable hitter. Heh, I'm a Cubs fan, so I'm an optimist, why not hope?

Smith was a 40th rounder last year and got a $75,000 signing bonus. The scouting report on him last year was that he works primarily 87-90, along with a solid change and an above-average curve. Thanks, cal. 87-90 is nothing exciting, and usually velocity readings tend to be on the exaggerate side anyway. But he was only 17 last draft spring. Not at all unusual to improve some strength and improve some delivery/mechanics issues after age 17. A lot of lefties with solid change and excellent curve who could be quite useful if they threw mainly in the 89-92 range. So I'll hope that in due time, Smith will end up a couple mph faster than the 87-90 report and will have the potential to end up as a complete pitcher with a decent fastball. Obviously Mesa isn't crawling with great pitchers. But I admit I was surprised when Smith was in the rotation and has stayed in the rotation. Heh, especially since it's like a 4-man rotation. In some past summers, they largely rotated the rotation starts, and there would be 8 or 10 guys starting. I'm possibly over-interpreting, but it's possible that Smith has been consistently starting because he's separated himself some from the other pool of arms that are being used in Mesa relief? Heh, my recall is that Phil reported on an appearance of him last fall, and he gave up about 6 runs in one inning or something at Instrux. So he wasn't even a name I'd had even in the furthest back part of my mind entering this summer. Interesting that Rosario hit 97, that's encouraging. Yesterday was his best outing in a few years, so I assume that's not very consistent. But he's still not quite 21. Very inconsistent, though, and no K's. So I assume that command, movement, and breaking stuff is still wishful thinking rather than progressing favorably.

Cal or others, what do we know about Brian Smith? I know he's 18, Canadian, lefty, not tall, was a 35th rounder or so, so I assume a standard $120-200 guy but I never actually heard. I don't recall any scouting on him either, anybody have anything? I assume standard 80's lefty curveballer.

Man, Texas is all in down there. Amazing. Cubs in past have been faulted for focusing on pitchers, runners, and would-be defenders at the expense of bats and powers. What a difference this month has been. Baez, Vogelbach, now Acosta. Candelerio. Golden. Flaherty. Gretzky. The 8th or 9th rounder from near St. Louis. Vitters. Lemahieu. One certainly can no longer complain under Wilken that they aren't even trying for real bats, power bats, possible middle-of-the-order bats. We'll see if any of these ever work out. But the last guy who was originally signed by the Cubs who started more than 100 games in the 3-4-5 middle of the order spots was Mark Grace. They obviously hope to change that with all of the might-hit-with-power guys they've gone after lately.

It could well be that Wilken and company were wholly justified in picking Simpson where they did. However, there probably will come a point in Simpson's struggles where I have to wonder whether he will ever get back to 100%. Simpson may never get back to that point. As I've said before, I'm willing to give him a pass on this season. He will have the entire offseason to work out, get back into playing shape, and prove himself next season. However, I am concerned. The going assumption has been that he lost all of his stuff because he lost all his strength with mono last year. If so, there's the thought that he will rebuild his strength and will regain his velocity. I guess I have a concern that he'll be able to regain his strength and size, but I wonder if he'll ever regain his velocity, and that their might be something other than mono at issue with his arm. By BA account he was throwing 94 or whatever in his first start in cold Peoria. A couple starts later he came out with a tight shoulder. Young pitchers have arm problems all the time, whether they had mono last year or not. I don't know anything, but I do admit I have a fear that it's an injured arm rather than mono that is killing him. I also admit that the session that sold Wilken on him last year, IIRC he pitched a winning game throwing in the mid/upper 90's on friday or Saturday, and then came back and did that in relief again on Monday. Not normal rest. It's possible that pitching short-rest and high-pitch-counts like that in the playoffs damaged his arm, and the mono has not so much to do with it. Hope it really is all the mono. In any case, by next season I don't think we'll be able to keep blaming it on mono anymore.

I hope so. From Tspain's comment, plus a picture I saw, he looks like he could have some strength and could hit for some power, although of course he didn't actually do so in college. Nor did he steal much. Of course, Szczur was 2 years younger (Easterling is 22, Szczur was 20), and Szczur was picked 20+ rounds sooner. And Szczur we know has basestealing speed/acumen. Most importantly, Szczur has a knack for hitting the ball. Easterling didn't hit much in college. Maybe he'll just show up and be a hitter as a pro. But at FSU his numbers suggest a high-K guy. There are lots of football players who are fast, strong, and coordinated, so they always seem like promising baseball prospects where those same attributes would seem to work. But it's very rare that they can hit. Szczur seems to be unusual in that he can. Hopefully Easterling will be another, in due time.

Kim apparently taken out after his one inning. Sick? INjured? Discipline? I've kind of suspected he wasn't really healthy for some time. Phil reported some arm problems last year, and I haven't gotten the impression that he's thrown with the arm that the Cubs liked enough to spend a million on. Koreans who have had arm problems, usually including surgery: Lee (TJ), Dong, Rhee, Jung. No problems: little Na. Didn't Ha have some arm trouble, back when they had him catching? If Kim has arm problem, it would seem to be the Korean normal, rather than anything surprising.

I believe that since Jackson's hot April, that he's hitting .204 or something like that since. Ugly.

Ackerman with a good outing. He had a bad first inning in his earlier start, and Garcia let in one of his runners in the fifth, so his ERA looks bad. But 11 K's in 7.2 is pretty good, and maybe 5 hits? Lots of walks thus far, though. Nice to see him having some success. Maybe what the scouts saw in him will be vindicated, and at 20 from a small college background, it might be that he was far from a finished prospect when drafted. Anyway, at least for the night I'll hope for him.

Yes, I'm big-time concerned. He's shown no progress in this area and has gotten much worse this year. After his draft summer, I'd hoped that some mechanical corrections or whatever that he coud become more adequate as a contact guy, and that between his HR's and walks it would more than offset. He's got some BP HR-power, and some game HR power too, but there is limited indication that his HR-rate is enough to really counterbalance SO many K's. If the only skill is walking, and he hits a decent but unspectacular number of HR's, and his defense is CF-OK/average while he's young but he really needs to play corner to be a defensive asset, I don't think he projects very well at all. He's kind of relied all along on a super-BABIP to keep his average afloat. That might be a true reflection of a patience approach, swing only at pitches I can whack, so when he does both to put the ball in play he whacks a lot. But I admit I'm kind of afraid he's just going to be a contact-challenged low-average hitter who won't have enough special HR power or defense to justify the low-average. Hopefully he makes some adjustments and gets better. I am somewhat afraid that when guys are giving away AB's to the K all the time, that one of the adjustments is to be more aggressive. So that eventually in an attempt to keep his average anti-awful, he may end up sacrificing a lot of the walks that are currently his one asset.

Thanks. I hadn't realized he was so slow, that's too bad. If he's not fast, so that he doens't actually project as a CFer or a base-stealer, and he doesn't have a frame the projects any power, then he's a pretty limited prospect. If he's Theriot offense who needs to play LF defense, then he just isn't much of a prospect. I don't doubt that if they were both on the same A-ball team, that Na would be a faster and jazzier CF. But Na's defense isn't that relevant since guys who can't hit don't make the majors. So I view Na as strictly a minor-league roster-fill type guy. When you whiff like Brett Jackson but have Pierre power, you're a long-shot to become even Joey Gathright.

Na may be similar, but he can't hit. Na K's like a big slugger. As a pro, he's got 75K/0HR/271 AB. Chen has 25K/211 AB. I'd take my chances with a hitter over a non-hitter. And I'd probably take my projection chances on a 6'1" guy adding some muscle and adding at least some more snap to his swing than on a dinky 5'9" kind of guy.

Chen was on my list to watch at Boise, and he's off to a nice start. I agree, he's an interesting prospect. He's got the most important tool of them all: he can hit the ball for contact. He's got speed and a good arm, so I think he's yet another in the legit CF prospect pool. He doesn't walk a lot, I don't think. Not bad, but it's not like he's profiled thus far as a high-walks guy. I'll be curious to see how his SB work goes. Is he fast enough and quick enough so that SB will be a big-league virtue? Otherwise it's not that hard to pick your spots against crummy catchers and pitchers who have no moves in short-season. Chen lists at 6'1", and he's still only 19. My hope is that in time he will grow into some power. If Chen was to eventually grow into 10+ HR power, then he might be a very significant prospect. But if it's Theriot-ceiling, makes it tough.

That's some really encouraging info, Cal. Thanks for posting it. If these guys both throw in the 90's, Cruz with good movement, and both with some physical projection left, both would seem to have pretty high ceilings. Lets hope it works out that way.

Between the $6+ spent on draft (including Szczur), and the high spending internationally, I'd assume their overall spending last year was probably around 10th, plus or minus a couple. Hardly cheap. We'll never know about the draft, but I still think that Simpson was signed because wilken liked him, and he happend to be cheap. My guess is that had he been a half million pricier and still wilken's favorite pick, then our draft spending would have been a half million higher and been at 13th or whatever. May be wrong, of course. Perhaps the half million or whatever saved on Simpson is exactly what opened up funds to sign Beeler and Harman and Geiger and Reed to their overslots. But we'll never know. What we do know is that their overall procurement spending last year was high. Or at least well above average.

I wonder if Reed hasn't been very good. It's seemed he got some buzz last year from Az Phil, and he had a couple of eye-catching games which led to good small-sample numbers. But from Phil's game reports this spring, he's seemed to have pitched poorly in most of the box scores that I've seen. I wonder if he isn't a guy who came in with a good arm and some good stuff but inconsistent wild, and he's been more inconsistent wild than improved this spring. We'll see. Hopefully his stuff is good and his control gets better.

Makes perfect sense. Obviously not many guys do sit 93/94, few do so with control and movement, and a guy can be a meaningful prospect without doing so. But obviously the shorter the velocity, the better the movement, location, and breaking stuff need to be to make up for it.

Welington Castillo had gone 12 for 17 with 4 HR, 3 doubles, and 13 RBI over a 5-game stretch before K'ing his last two AB on Saturday. Breaking a totally un-Castillo-like 6-game streak without a strikeout. He sat out yesterday, and is not playing today either. Just an unusual 2-days-off-in-a-row rest? Or an injury? Or has he gotten called up or something? He's been the only reason to check the Iowa box scores for a while. (Although I do check to see how Colvin is doing, and he may be starting to get going a little...) Castillo has a 1.02 OPS at Iowa after 29 games, with 9 HR's.

The reports on Wang that I recall had him in the low 90's, 90-91 area. It's hard to imagine that he has substantially improved upon that, so I figure it's probably low 90's still. Thanks, guys. 90-92 sounds good to me. NOthing special, but not inadequate either. A large fraction of the good pitchers in the majors don't really throw much harder than that very often. If Wang has control and knows how to pitch, he can be a meaningful big-league prospect with 92-mph velocity. Of course, it may be that the radio 92 was the one flukish 4-seamer that read that high, and that the actual fastballs that he was using effectively were mostly 87-89 types, who knows. And granted also that most of the guys who are getting big-leaguers out with 92-or-less velocity could throw harder than that when they were minor leaguers. If Z was a 20-year-old prospect given his current velocity, he wouldn't be the prospect he was back then when he threw 98. Toonster, why do you say it's "hard to image that he has substantially improved" upon low 90's? I assume because he's short, listing at 6'0"? If he was 90-91 as a teenager, and now he's 20, apart from his limited height it seems fairly believable when guys add some speed when they turn 20, 21, and 22.

I'm hopeful that Dolis will eventually become an effective big-league reliever. But his splits in relief are 28H/11BB/14K/24IP. So that's a 1.6 WHIP with low K's and a lot of hits. Seems to me like his traditional profile: hard heavy fastball but not very good control and not much else.

Wrong day, but do we have any idea how hard Wang, who pitched so well yesterday, throws?

nice to see him pitch well, because he sucked last year, and a lot of our far east pitching signees have been flops. He was bad at Boise, but I thought he pitched quite well at Mesa after getting sent back, although granted small sample. 19K/6BB/18 IP. IIRC, he was good in like 6 of those 8 games, but had one or two poor games. Gave up 19 hits in 18 innings, so I had wondered whether his stuff was just so-so. He's 20 now, we'll see.