craig

"Chirinos" Clevenger tied his career high with his 5th HR yesterday. He's a career .311BA/.371 OBP/low-K guy. With even a little big of power, he'd seem to profile rather nicely as a LH-hitting big-league catcher. He's transitioned up to AAA rather nicely, as is to be expected for a contact hitter who doesn't have that much trouble with breaking balls. I wonder what the Cubs internally really think about his defense? My perception is that he isn't very tooly defensively and doesn't have a very strong arm (for a catcher), but that other than a weak arm that his defense and alertness as a catcher aren't problematic.

Thanks much, CubsWin. Just to clarify on the 92-94 with precision: 1. Are you just deducing that because Az Phil said he was 92-94 last fall, and you deduce from his results that he's doing so with precision? 2. Or is this really info from this spring? You've seen the 92-94 bit, or you've gotten that from some source who has seen him this spring? I'm assuming it's #2, real info from this spring which may be consistent with AzPhil's stuff but is independent of it? Heh, I'm just trying to be careful. Once in a while I read something multiple times, and I think it's multiple confirmation that the info is correct. When really it's one report of a guy hitting 90-X miles per hour, and multiple posters kind of repeating that. So yours really is a fresh report, I think?

Yeah, he was bad his first three starts, and I was worried that he'd been overhyped and that skipping him up to A+ was a mistake. But now he hasn't allowed a run in his last 16 innings. Not nearly the K-rate that he had in short season, though. Still only 20. Beeler on a short pitch count, but another really effective outing. ERA under 1, strong GB ratio thus far, nothing great for K's but not worrisome bad, and his walk rate has been low. Best of all, he's not allowed a HR yet. I'm very excited about him, and would easily put him in my top-20 at this point. Big guy who Phil said throws in low 90's, low HR's, low walks, that's a perfect combo. Lopez has sure been awful, though. For supposedly being a guy with some talent, he looks as mediocre and whackable in A- as he did last year, or worse.

From some discussions yesterday... Jay Jackson, was terrible for most of last summer too. So whatever it was he had going for him 2-3 years back it's gone now. I assume it's the arm that's shot. On Lemahieu empty average, I agree that his average looks somewhat empty. But now I'm wondering. He's got a .143 IsoP, which isn't weak for a middle infielder. (Not that weak for a big-league 3B, either, if he could IsoP like that in the majors...) 16 XBH in 39 games is actually very good, and prorates to 66.5 XBH/162 games. Here are some career XBH/162 game averages for some familiar cubs, none of whom I perceived as being grossly power-deficient. Shawon Dunston: 45 XBH/162 games Todd Walker: 52 XBH/162 games Michael Barrett: 53 XBH/162 games Ryne Sandberg: 57 XBH/162 games. Obviously doubles are not HR's, so Sandberg averaging 21 HR/162 games is different than DJ for whom almost all of his XBH are doubles. Sandberg hit as many as 30 HR twice, so Lem isn't at all similar in that regard. (Or defense, of course). But if a guy is hitting 60 XBH per season, or close, even if they are mostly doubles, that isn't all that empty in my book. I wouldn't fuss about a .300BA/60XBH guy at 2B or at 3B. His .143 IsoP is double his .072 IsoP from last year. Substantial progress, despite a significant jump, and despite being still only 22. Being that young, and perhaps still getting stronger or perhaps still getting used to the strength that he has now, it's possible that there will be more XBH growth still ahead.

Has anybody seen him or gotten any current scouting info on him? BA's take has been mostly high-80's in past, but I don't think he was ever a guy they had reason to discuss much with scouts, so I question whether their info is even remotely current. I know he's got a curveball, and as we know from Micah Bowie and Marshall and Phil Norton, low-A hitters get carved by a good lefty curve. But I wonder if he hasn't perhaps matured some physically and hasn't grown a little stronger/faster? A good curve with a Bowie/Norton/McNichol fastball is one thing; a good curve with a 91-94 fastball might be quite different. Anybody know at this point? And do we know whether he's got just a fastball fastball, or is he a cutter guy against RHP? I know it's early, his BABIP against is ridiculously lucky low, and curveballers can lock in for a while but it might not last. But a 0.72 WHIP in late May does spark my interest and make me wonder if it's more than just a brief fluke?

Hadn't realized that Adduci was injured as well as Jackson. somebody has to play CF for each of these teams, last night it was Marwin Gonzalez... And Daytona basically had nobody behind Ha. (Did you want turtle Burgess playing center???) Makes sense that Ha, Silva, and Na would get promoted to populate the CF spots. It might not bode well for Jackson being back on Wednesday, though. I'm not keen on promoting Jackson. His average has been on a steady decline for a couple of weeks, and he's not real high in many of the Southern League stats (29th in batting average, 7th in OPS, tie with a bunch for 15th in HR's...) Not like he's crushing that league, and his K-rate is higher than ever, and 30K/4HR ratio isn't real impressive. I'd rather let him play in AA and see ifi he can get any better, or even sustain what he's been. He's got some progress to make, I think.

Little Szczur has missed a few games, apparently went back to Villanova for graduation. Very nice to see Kurcz back in the starting rotation. His control is poor, but his ERA has not somehow gotten down below 3.0. He's only allowed like one run in his last four games. So hopefully his stuff is shaping up; and he's going to vindicate himself as a prospect of some sort. For whatever reason I think of him being older than 20. Maybe because I associate 20-year-olds with having velocity projection left, and I doubt that applies much for Kurcz.

Belliveau K's 3 and walks 1 in his hitless 2-inning AA debut.

13 innings, 3 hits, and no runs over his last two starts. Nice. He's 20 years old, so he's got time. And having been drafted as a teenager, it's possible that the velocity he'll have eventually will be more than what he had when drafted.

thanks.

Cal or anybody, what do we know about Jung's late start? I recall his first year he went home early, there was talk it was for school or something, or that he'd quit, I never got a good scoop on that. Last year he quit early, I believe the rumor was shoulder, but not sure. Now this year a late start, but he was built up pretty well in camp to be pitching into the 7th in his second game. Has it just been a function of arm these last two years? Or is there something else going on? Did they just start him a little slow this spring for arm reasons? Or was it a combo of starting him a little slow and him just not making a full-season rotation on merit?

I had heard Beeler was 90-92 with his fastball, so I guess if he's sitting at 92-94 and touching higher, he's already done it. That's great news. If he can locate a consistent low-to-mid 90s fastball, he can succeed at the upper levels. .... Do you guys know what the nature and extent of Beeler's current injury is? Pulled after 3 perfect innings a couple weeks ago, and hasn't pitched since. I agree on the Gibbs stuff. He's definitely on my list. My understanding is that he's a good and smart and advanced receiver, but that his arm just isn't really strong. My understanding is that the question had been his hitting, and that's been very promising thus far. I think he has some power potential, too, even if he hasn't shown much of that yet.

Question: do you guys know the nature or severity of Dallas Beeler's injury? Got pulled after 3 perfect innings in his last start about 11 days ago or so. Anybody have any scoop?

He's got a very big arm, so that's why I think he'd have a much better chance to reach the majors as a power reliever than as K-king hitter. When you whiff so much and walk so little, you need to hit a LOT more HR's than he does to cover it as a player. But probably wishing he was a major-league prospect is silly and I should be happy to have him as an organizational player getting some lucky BABIP. But I do believe he was originally signed as a pitcher, and they switched him to outfield because of his prodigious BP power, and hoped that some contact skill would come in time.

Scouting question: What do we know about Bour? He's huge, LH, 22, has 7 HR's, and has excellent BB/K stats. I assume he fields and runs like a 25th-round 250-pounder? I guess I'm curious how many HR's he'd need to hit to overcome some of the other limitations?

He's still K'ing like crazy, but he's done a nice job of keeping his BABIP up at .500. If he can sustain that, who knows? Not sure if that stats page I'm looking at already includes tonights action, but it's kind of interesting that when he puts the ball in play, not only is his batting an even .500, but 17 or the 19 in-play hits are singles. I still wish they'd just move him over to pitcher, but whatever.

Box score shows Kurcz pitched relief. Is that true? I wonder who'll take his rotation spot? Anybody know if that was real, or one of the FSL box errors? I admit I'm kind of confused with what's status quo for Daytona's rotation. Whitenack out, Doug Davis in and will be out, Lorick in today, Kurcz out today. Will Kurcz go back in? Rhee? Will Kirk get promoted? Will be interesting to see it settle out.

Raisin, how much of that is that they're going slow with Rhee post surgery. He's struggled last season, maybe he's just taking longer than normal to come back and they don't want to push it. This is his 3rd year since surgery, right? If he's still not healthy enough to pitch 3 years after his surgery, I think something's not quite right. He was pitching rehab games two summers ago. Aren't most guys are back and ready to be used full-bore within 32 months or less of successful surgery?

McNutt was scheduled, and is on five days. But now Chen is listed instead.

The typical BABIP in the majors is a nice round easy-to-remember .300. In this 2010 article, the most recent season had been 2009, with a .299 BABIP. Which would seem to put Vitters career only slightly below. However, minor-league BABIP is typically somewhat higher. (http://cutfour.com/2010/12/minor-league-babip/) Over the last five seasons, the average BABIP in full-season leagues has been a shade over .310. Last year it was .3134. Interestingly, there is only a modest "level" factor. In other words, there is no notable pattern getting higher or lower from A-AA-AAA. There are some modest league factors. The California league not surprisingly is high (.324 over the five years), the PCL is a little high (.317), and several are more in the .304 (Eastern)-.306 (FSL, Carolina)-.308 (Southern) range. So if Vitters is a career .297, he's definitely on the low side relative to minor leaguers, although not enormously so. Makes sense for a slow RHH who hits a fair amount of weak grounders and weak flies.

I think given his draft past the Burgess was obviously the most famous name, but I think clearly Morris the shoulder surgery guy was the best prospect of the three. There are enough fringy lefties in the majors that Hicks has a shot too, just like Rosscup does. My impression was that Hicks was initially projected to perhaps throw hard, but that over his several years in the minors he's never actually added any velocity. Am I wrong? Or does he actually have a significantly plus fastball? I thought I'd seen somebody do an Archer comparison, which I thought was meaning a guy who was a super wildman elsewhere who might moderate his wildness to some extent. But there isn't the idea that Hicks has a big fastball like Archer or has electric stuff like Archer had and was known to have before we ever got him, is there?

Clevenger 3 more hits. He's up into the .340's. Kind of like a Barney in terms of anti-K hitter, but with some power and more walks. Not sure if he has enough arm, but it would seem his bat is enough to contend for a backup job.

His ERA was under 3 over his last 6 weeks or two months at Peoria. I recall before he got promoted looking in the Minor League box things that show the last ten starts, and he'd been under 3.0 ERA during that period. So while his overall Peoria numbers looked yucky, that was spring and he was quite effective for all of June, July, and August.

Those are good points, video. Fleita said he's throwing 91-94. I'm not sure why a guy with a 91-94 sinker is an undertalented back-end guy. A 91-94 sinker could be way better fastball than what most major-league starters work with. I don't think there's any question but that a 91 sinker would be more useful than a 95 40seamer. The other thing is control. Scouts naturally focus on stuff, and kind of rank guys as front end, middle end, or back end prospects based on their raw stuff. But we all know that not everybody has the same command, and superior command can trump stuff routinely. If Whitenack combines a 91-mph sinker with excellent command, I think that provides the potential to be better than a mediocre rotation-filler. We'll see of course, and obviously I'm just an optimistic fan. But a lot of the runs a pitcher allows come not on their good stuff but on mistakes, and some guys who make mistakes more rarely have good success without exceptional velocity.

I wonder if he really meant that, or meant Jackson in that context. The Hendry stuff tht Whitenack is 91-94, significantly up from last year, is pretty good info. The bit about Lake getting benched for not running out a fly ball is both sad and good. He seems like such a dope. He's fallen well out of my top-10 by now.