craig

I sure do. I think he has the tools, if he can refine them. And he and Castro could be a super good-hitting middle of the infield. If you've got a couple of #3-type hitters playing middle infield, image how strong of a batting lineup you could have. Tools-wise, neither would seem underqualified defensively. I wonder whether Castro might benefit from a move to 2B. The shorter throw could bail him out of a lot of throwing errors.

I wonder if Carlos Silva might be a pretty good comp for Wells? Of course, Wells is young, so who knows what he might come up with in future.

1. Phil gets referenced often enough (and helpfully so, because there's often all kinds of interesting stuff in his articles or the followup discussions). As TT said, it's a non-issue, since we all know that any info from Arizona is basically coming from him. 2. Silva: toonster, I was surprised that you mentioned negative 2B reports, because I'd thought he'd hardly played there enough to make any judgments. But after checking back, he did appear in over 20 games at 2B last year. I'm curious how many sources and how close your sources are, if you can share that? Because often you seem to be getting different input from what I'm hearing (several-hands info.) I've heard that Silva has looked quite good at 2B this spring. 3. I've also heard that Baez has looked impressive at SS. If his defense is better or at least as good as Hernandez's, and his offense is way better, then they wouldn't/shouldn't have any Baez decisions impacted by Hernandez. To train him at 2B or 3B because Castro has SS locked down long-term, at some point that could make sense. But I don't think you'd move Baez to 2B or 3B on account of Marco Hernandez. At least, not until/unless Marco shows strong indications that he's a comparable or better prospect, or until/unless Baez shows signs that he's unqualified to play a good big-league SS. Certainly I hope that in a year or two, it's looking like: a) Castro is a superstar and that his SS defense is very good and that he's not going to outgrow the position b) That Baez is a stud prospect and that his SS defense is excellent and capable, even relative to the incredibly high big-league norm c) That Hernandez is also looking like a gifted, above-average big-league defensive SS with an asset bat besides. We should be so lucky as to sit with three excellent-hitting good-defense SS's in their low 20's, huh?

Pitchers get injured, that goes with the territory. He's not the first or the last guy to lose a bunch of velocity at some point, for whatever reason. It appears that he's got some promising control, breaking pitches, and a diverse arsenal. If he had Struck's velocity he'd probably be a very, very nice prospect. But with no velocity, different story. If later on he's 6 mph faster, he'll probably be pretty interesting. But, arms get damaged and while sometimes velocity does return at some point, it's certainly not so likely and not to be expected.

I've heard that Baez has looked fantastic at SS, and that within the org talk about moving him is gone. That may be for now, of course, so perhaps that may change later if/when his body changes. And my source is fourth hand. But I guess he's looked much better than anybody expected, we knew he had a strong arm but apparently he's very quick and has impressive range. Note: Of course I understand he's 19 now, and a lot of guys don't have the same size, quickness, or flexibility at 27 that they had at 19. So I'm not at all suggesting that he might not outgrow the position. But for the moment, my understanding is that they think his current defensive aptitude at SS is excellent. I had completely expected Hernandez to jump to Peoria. He's had two full pro years, and he's hit for average in both of them. If as a contact hitter A- is too much for him and he's overmatched, it's not obvious that another round of XST/Arizona/short-season is going to help all that much. Of course every hitter goes through slumps and bad luck stretches, and even good hitters who put up .300+ seasons will have a couple of weeks where they OBP and slug below .100. Plus hitting in 40-degree weather when pitchers are cool and strong isn't easy for any hitter. So I think it's way too early to write off Hernandez as a hitter.

All seven of Vitters hits have been singles thus far.

Heh, dress warm and enjoy the opener. Glad to see Cates listing for tonight, I'd thought there had been some question about whether he was healthy... Hopefully he starts well. So, if I'm remembering correctly, that will be Loosen-Jokisch-Simpson-Cates for Daytona. Leaving Concepcion/Kirk as the fifth starter candidates. I'm curious whether Concepcion really will be starting tomorrow, and if so how low his pitch count might be. Well, and I guess I'm also curious whether he'll be effective.

Thanks much, UK. Very helpful, and thanks for the detail.

Any gun on Rosario? Any hint of an obvious and effective breaking ball? (I know for a lot of slider guys, it's hard to distinguish the slider from their 2-seamer or whatever.) Did Liria or Wang have any noteworthy breaking pitches?

There has been talk of Beeler being a guy who might break out. And some talk of him having an improved and effective slider to go with his sinker. But as with last year, no K's and piles of hits.

I also hope it's the last time we spend a first on a guy who we see throw a complete game one night in a college tournament and then have him come back the same weekend to pitch relief, even if he is in the mid-90's the 2-3 days later. The very usage that really showed him off to Wilken may have also been the very weekend that messed up his arm. The radio announcer was saying that he had pin-point control early on with both fastball and breaking stuff. I know there were reports that he was throwing 94 comfortably in Arizona this winter/spring, but I'd been told that the velocity disappeared over the course of camp.

Wang relieves Rosario after 5.1. Rosario allows only two hits, and has a 12/2 G/A ratio. Interesting numbers, he must have gotten a lot of quick groundouts to pitch into the 6th innings on the first-week pitch counts. Although 3 walks and a HBP and only 2 K's isn't super impressive. Wang (1.2), Reed (1.0), and McKirihan (1.0) provide 3.2 innings of perfect relief.

I had the same question. To some degree, it really doesn't matter early in the year. The starters rarely go 5 innings, so there are gobs of innings for a reliever. If a guy is pitching half-way well, he can pick up 2 or 3 innings at a crack in relief, and by May 15 you can hardly differentiate the starters from the relievers in terms of innings. It almost matters more as a reflection of how the org projects a guy. Good outing for Jokisch, nice to see Zych and Antigua and Cabrera and Beliveau do well. My guy Cruz was bad. Will look forward to UK's scouting on Francescon.

toonster, how much do you know about struck? My recall of what I've heard scouting-wise is that he throws a lot of fastballs, and hasn't had any consistent or high quality breaking pitch. Lots of fastballs with some so-so sliders mixed in. Which could fit his crummy results at Iowa. I don't think it's necessarily wise to focus too much on the Iowa numbers. It was premature for Fleita to rush him up to AAA already last year, at age 21 in only his 2nd year as a pro. Hardly astonishing that he was bad there. At Daytona/Tennessee, he was 2.96 ERA / 73K/22BB/85IP/2 HR. Those are very good numbers for a 21-year-old, and normally suggest at least some degree of prospect-hood. But he's gotten little buzz, and for a system as weak as the Cubs, he didn't seem to even sniff BA's top-30 despite numbers like that as a 21-year-old. However he's doing it, it didn't appeal to scouts that much. So some things don't really seem to add up. As important as any characteristic for a pitcher is a low-HR profile, and Struck seems to have that. Which seems unusual if a guy is throwing too many fastballs and hitters can often sit on those, even in the A+/AA levels. My sense is that his velocity is good, but it's not like he's Cashner or Carpenter or overpoweringly fast. Perhaps either his location or his fastball movement are pretty good, or both? Maybe the brilliant Fleita figured he threw too many fastballs, and pushed him up to Iowa just to force him to fail and to learn for himself that doing it that was wasn't going to work. So maybe his slider will be a little sharper and more consistent, he'll throw more of them, maybe he's taking to an effective cutter, and you'll have a new and improved man this year? It's spring, always fun to hope.

Great to see the Jensen and Struck starts. Would be fun if Jensen turned out to be a prospect. He was consistently good against top California JC competition, so I assume he's got something, and his consistency hints to a degree of coordination and control. And USC normally recruits pretty high-level talent, so a USC scholarship, especially for a smaller guy, hints that he's perhaps not totally under-talented. IIRC, there was little scouting that he had any great breaking pitch. So I'm assuming that his progress will depend on how his slider comes along, whether or not he can develop a change, how fast he is, and how much deception/movement goes with his normal fastball.

Yes. Antigua has a much, much better chance to become a major leaguer as a serviceable lefty reliever than as a starter. If the premise was that getting him into relief is the best way to prepare him for a useful big-league role, I can see why they'd do that. I have no idea, does he have arm slot or splits that make him especially suitable?

Surprised that Raley is still in there. He can throw strikes, and any lefty who can throw strikes has a chance to slip into the major leagues in a relief role. But he seems remotely unlikely to make it as a winning big-league starter. I too would have rather taken a look at what Antigua might do given the chance to start.

A consistent 92/93 lefty with a wicked slider could be pretty good.... if he had good control. Or Felix Heredia if he doesn't have much control....

You never know with projection, of course. Will the projectible guy ever get faster, refine his promising slider, improve his promising control, or upgrade his promising changeup? But my understanding is that the Cubs scouts are pretty interested in Cruz. They think he has a wicked slider and a decent fastball. Control is a problem, of course, and a wicked slider can serve very well in relief. So maybe they'll just Loogy-track him. But I think they see his stuff/slider/potential as being at a different level than guys like Wang or Antigua.

I read that it's Wells-Burke game 4. That would leave Cruz for game 5, presumably, with Wang/Liria/whomever as other piggy-back types. I'm glad that Jensen is starting. Not big, he had good velocity but not overwhelming and I'm not sure how fast he'll really be when he's grinding out a start every 5 days, his breaking stuff hadn't scouted as being super exciting, and his signing bonus wasn't extraordinarily large. But I'm a big believe in control, and I thought he had that, and whatever his stuff it seemed to do very well in a very competitive California JC league. So I'm optimistic that he might emerge as a good prospect. Perhaps a flip is that perhaps having Jensen and francescon starting doesn't reflect super well on the international prospects. If Liria/Wang/Cruz were looking like big-time arms with big-time major-league rotation potential, they'd probably get rotation spots even if you did have a little 23-year-old changeup guy like Francescon.

Peoria Chiefs roster http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120401&content_id=27830444&vkey=pr_t443&fext=.jsp&sid=t443

Maybe this had been noted previously, but I was disappointed that not only is Maples injured, but our best new Latin pitching prospect Jose Arias is also injured. I'd gotten the sense that he was clearly a level above any of the other DSL guys. He's the huge 6'5" guy who had the 50K/8 BB split in 43 innings, with a 2.28 ERA.

Maybe this had been noted previously, but I was disappointed that not only is Maples injured, but our best new Latin pitching prospect Jose Arias is also injured. I'd gotten the sense that he was clearly a level above any of the other DSL guys. He's the huge 6'5" guy who had the 50K/8 BB split in 43 innings, with a 2.28 ERA.

Agree, that sets up Hernandez as the clear regular SS at Peoria. For Ridling, I think he may end up playing a lot of LF for Tennessee. Which he could have also done at Iowa. But given the Soriano situation, if he played enough LF and played well enough to look OK defensively in left, that seems to be a position of opportunity in the organization. At some point Soriano won't be in left, so if Ridling established himself as a decent fielder and really was hitting like a major leaguer, he might have a much better chance there than he'll ever get at 1B?

Yes, you could be loaded. Of course, it's March now. some of these guys might get promoted from XST to Peoria over the next ten weeks before they ever get to Boise. But this could be the best prospect-heavy Boise team since the Cubs affiliated there. May not be so strong in pitchers. Maples may be wilder than wild, or may be in Mesa, or may be in injury rehab, who knows. The short-season pitching doesn't look at all strong, at present.