craig

Were you actually watching, or just get that from box score? If you were watching, any scouting observations on him? Fast? Sharp breaking ball? Would love to see some young pitcher emerge as being legit.

http://muskat.mlblogs.com/ Stupid place to put this, probably. But Muskat has lineups for today's intrasquad game. I'm sure it doesn't mean anything, but an interesting thing is that on one team it's Szczur in left with Sappelt in center. The other team has Ha in center with Campana in left. Always just trying to look at guys, I'm sure. Ha's ability to play great CF might impact his career. Whether or not Sappelt can play a decent center field could impact his chances to make this roster or a future roster as a utility guy. (Or perhaps as a platoon guy some day, if for example Jackson gets eaten alive by big-league lefties...) I think whether or not Szczur is an asset CFer or is below-average or below-Ha or below-Jackson defensively might also impact his future.

Good: 1. Szczur is somewhat better at everything. Under new direction of the new regime, he walks a lot more, with another year of maturation combined with the more patient/selective approach he hits with more power, he's healthy from the start so he's stealing more, and his defense is better too. K's a lot more too, of course, but he emerges as the real deal. 2. Torreyes keeps hitting, and he too adds some walks while playing excellent defense. 3. Vitters surprised everybody and has a pretty good year. Hits .330 with over 20 HR's, improves his selectivity a bit, and looks OK in after a move to LF in mid-season. 4. Vogelbach is not sensational, but he has a good season. 5. Ha hits 18 HR's, makes some anti-awful strides in his walk rate, and starts to look like hie could hit enough HR's to make it in a corner or CF. Bad: 1. Baez whiffs too much, walks too little, hit too few HR's, and makes too many errors. 2. Dunston can't hit at all. Looks like a wasted million. 3. Jackson doesn't hit as many HR's, K's more than ever, and with so many K's and not so many HR's, he struggles to hit .260. 4. Reggie Golden gets completely overmatched in Peoria. He starts out whiffing, and by the time the weather warms up he's got no HR's and his batting average is .150. 5. Marco Hernandez is a disappointment at Peoria. No progress, no speed, no power.

I'll be borrowing from some of the others, but use a different format: Beliveau: Good, remains excellent. He goes up to the Cubs by July, does well, and establishes himself as a keeper. McNutt: Bad. He's again mediocre, too many HR's, too many walks, too few K's, not really that fast, not really any signature breaking pitch. Kind of the 2012 Jay Jackson. Any top-100 consideration is long foggy history by October. Hayden Simpson: Good. He's a new man, he flashes 95's and 96's on occasion, he blends in some good breaking pitches, and works in the 88-93 range comfortably. Neither his fastball nor any individual pitch is exceptional, but he commands his arsenal well enough to look like a a realistic rotation prospect. He reaches Daytona for sure, and perhaps even Tennessee. He is a candidate for top-100 lists by October. He's one of the big breakout guys. Whitenack: Bad and Good. The stuff about being back and starting the season is baloney. By August, he's pitching pretty regularly, and hopes are reasonable that he'll be good again in 2013. But too soon to tell. Rhee: Good. Is effective in AA, and looks like a decent back-of-rotation prospect, perhaps even does so well that he emerges as a fringy top-100 prospect. Dolis: Bad. Wild as always. Maples: Good. Control shows some progress, and he flashes at times at Boise. Wells: Bad. Doesn't show much progress. Concepcion: Good. Looks smooth, has good control and consistency, gets velocity reports of 95-96 on occasion, and there are flashes of a good breaking ball. Top-100 guy next winter. He's a big breakout guy. Zych: Bad. Wild, inconsistent. Cates: Good. Everything improves. Velocity is good, command improves, changeup improves, and slider shows some promise. Very effective at Daytona, but struggles in late-season Tennessee showing. Kurcz: Bad. As inconsistent as before, no sign of progress. Allows too many HR's. Struck: Good. Forgotten prospect, he has a good year at Iowa. Doesn't emerge as any thriller prospect, but looks like a major leaguer in some role. Breaking stuff gets more consistent, command improves, and he remains an anti-HR guy. Antigua: Bad. Too many HR's, not consistent enough to get by with his fringy stuff. Beeler: Good. Not dramatically knockout good, but everything is somewhat better. A little faster and more consistently so. A little more command with his fastball. Slider is sharper. Adds a cutter that really helps him. Becomes less aggressive, so he walks more but more nibbles get more K's and cut way down on the HR's. Rosario: Bad. Not enough control or command, too inconsistent. Jensen: Good. Lacks the big name, but outpitches everybody at Boise. Heh, this is fun. If half of the pitching prospects come out "good", that's probably pretty unrealistically optimistic, isn't it.

Yes.

The number of visas is limited. So Latin guys who aren't progressing might not get as large a window. Although, typically if you aren't one of the top-28 international prospects in the country, you aren't probably much of a loss. Certainly the reports last year were pretty negative, pretty fast but not exceptional, and straight with no command or breaking ball. I always wonder with latin kids if they don't improve. Bogus age, and he's really 23? PEDs before, and without them now his arm is really mediocre?

I read that as pretty weak view, in part because I'm thinking of Randy Wolf lately. But when scouts use comps, you often don't know what's really in their heads. A scouting comp is sometimes to the recent view on a guy, but often it's to a guy when he was a rising prospect and they were scouting him and evaluating him. Randy Wolf was a 2nd round pick who had won over 50 games by the time he turned 26. His ERA went from 4.36 to 3.70 to 3.20 at ages 23-24-25, with ERA+'s of 108 - 116 - 121. He had very strong K-BB ratios during those early years. And he won 16 games the following season. If Concepcion posts ERA+'s of 116 and 121 when he's 24 and 25, we won't be questioning this signing one little bit. But, young pitchers often have arm issues sooner or later, and Wolf has pitched most of his career without the arm he had when he was 24. The scout may be thinking of the young polished Wolf, who was never overpowering but had a good arm, good stuff, and good control to succeed like that. But, I'm hoping that Concepcion projects to throw harder more consistently and have sharper stuff than Callis is expecting.

Heh, fun comparison. I think Lemahieu was an excellent prospect. But he never did grow into any more effective power. Torreyes still has some time. On the other hand, Lemahieu had the height and levers where back when he was 18 or 19 it would have been very reasonable to project more power. Short Torreyes, not so much. Heh, if I've got two 18-year-olds who are elite contact guys, I'll normally take the power projection on the one who's over 6-foot rather than the short one! The other difference, I think, is that while Lemahieu didn't make many errors, I don't think people really thought he had the range or quickness or turn-the-DP-footwork to play a good defensive 2B. He was going to need to be a reliable defender but one who would make it on his bat despite his defense, at 2B. Torreyes, I think the Cubs believe he has a chance to be an asset defender at 2B. We'll see, of course. What management projects and what really happens often don't match, as we well know.

1. Often hard to know when a guy is getting switched to relief. This is true both for strong-armed guys, but also true for fringy guys. For this reason, I'm not confident that guys who were starters will remain starters, even if there are rotation holes that would permit them. Jackson, Raley, Rusin, none seem likely to become valuable big-league starters. But there might be some chance to make it in relief, especially for the lefties or a curveballer like Rusin. 2. My semi-confident starters: Iowa: Struck, Coleman Tenn: McNutt, Rhee, Beeler. Daytona: Cates, DelValle, Kirk. *With Raisin, I don't expect that Whitenack will be starting in Daytona in April. Peoria: Wells, Wang, Cruz. *I expect Simpson to start at one of the A-ball clubs. Probably Daytona, if he looks sharp in camp. But after last year's disaster, they might want him to experience some success. *I kind of expect Liria and Peralta in the mix. *Concepcion at Peoria.

I've got him 10th on my list. Only four spots ahead of Lake, but I feel like the superiority of Torreyes as a prospect is greater than that. The best defensive 2B prospect in our minors, and projects as a really good big-league defender, both in terms of reliability and range/DP/playmaking. A true gift for contact. Concerns are obvious: does he have any physical growth left and will he have any power/IsoP, and will he develop any IsoD? To have all of the offense rest on batting average is difficult, especially if that average needs to be sustained without any hits via un-fieldable HR’s. If we knew he could grow into 8-12 HR power, I’d rank him even higher. Or if I knew he’d end up with a solid walk-rate and could project as a leadoff guy, I’d like him even more. Again, I’m partly trusting that management isn’t dumb enough to so highly value a guy whose power ceiling is Campana/Pierre-like. I'm hopeful that he end up a little taller than we expect. I'm sure he's already much stockier than the list values. I also hope that he might learn/be-persuaded to take more walks. He's short enough, he's got a good enough eye, he's good enough at handling breaking balls, and he's not toasted by 2-strike counts; if he decided that it was worth it to work counts deeper, at the expense of more K's and some loss of average, his OBP could become strong and he could become a very valuable starting 2B and perhaps leadoff guy. I think he's an interesting case where, if management could persuade him that they want more walks, that perhaps he'd be able to accomodate. Of course, a fair chance that he'll never be more offensively than Barney.

Interesting comments, although the only surprising one was the one about Lake getting taller. Good point that combined with the Soto comment, it might suggest that Oneri may finally be ready to try Lake at some position where he belongs. Keeping him at SS has been just kind of Foxing him. The idea that he's gotten taller is very encouraging, to me. His only chance is as a power hitter, and if he's taller and fills out, he may be better able to hit some HR's without needing to sell out for power. Fun to start getting discussion about who'll go where.

I'm not a huge Lake fan, I've got him at #14 on my list. Junior Lake: As with Vitters, future depends heavily on HR output. His awful K/BB profile show tons of holes, and promise a future with low average and low IsoD. At 25 HR, that could add enough hits and slugging to float an anti-awful BA and to perhaps offset the bad K’s and low walks and low OBP. Seems unsuited for the alleged “culture shift” that Hoyer supposedly wants, given his reputation as a “play the wrong way” slacker, non-hustler, and ignore-coaches guy. But perhaps a new regime will institute some changes at the minor-league level that will help him. The other big question is his position, obviously he can’t play SS. But he's young. If he could reduce his K-rate somewhat, increase his walk rate somewhat, and boost his HR rate somewhat, all improvements that could happen for such a young player, you could end up with a useful offensive player.

Absolutely. These things come down to scouting. I'm not sure where the scouting data is coming from. But the Cubs have been scouting him repeatedly over the last couple of months, so they've got current info on his size, height, velocity, etc.. If BA is getting inside dope from teams who have been scouting him this winter, those scouts are telling him different stuff than what the Cub scouts are thinking. It's perhaps as likely that they are getting input from scouts who saw him a season ago. It's not uncommon that between December of 2010 and January of 2012, a teenager has gotten stronger and faster. So what may have been projection then, maybe it's been realized to some degree by the event of the Cubs recent views. Of course, it could also be that what he was throwing in real games in Cuba as a 17/18-year old is also different than what he's doing now as an 19 or maybe 18-year-old. If I'm pitching every week, and pitching for outs and location, that's one thing. Maybe if I'm pitching once every three weeks for scouts, my arm is never tired and I'm throwing harder to tickle the radar guns than to actually get hitters out. So maybe he's hitting 96 now in a showcase, but if he's pitching every five days against hitters he'll be right back down to working at 88-91 and touching 93. Who knows. But, I think all of that applies to Maples, too. I don't know how fast he'll actually be when he's trying to find the strike zone and he's racking up pitches over a full season. Anyway, as Dave noted, I think the very size of the contract offer and the 40-man roster deal provides pretty good evidence that, while they may be off their rockers, the Cubs see something more than fringy 5th-starter stuff. I think the offer itself is evidence that the Cubs reports might not jive with what BA has been telling. Not that differing from BA means that McLeod is right and BA's sources are wrong.

I think right in the Maples ballpark is appropriate. I'd maybe put him ahead of Maples. Right now he's perhaps just as fast and perhaps has better control, while being lefty. A teenage lefty who can sustain 91-93 and hit 96 on his last pitches of a 70-pitch tryout sounds fast enough.

Cubs have signed Concepcion, to a massive contract. I can't vouch for any of the accuracy, but there are rumors of $7M and major-league contract. They scout him very differently and much more favorably than the Yankee blog mentioned earlier, as pitching comfortably 91-93, touching well above that, and being 6'3". If their scouting is vindicated, he could be a high-ceiling guy with more than back-of-rotation potential. Awesome, awesome, awesome. Super exciting.

Did Callis say that? That's really surprising, if true. I didn't think he'd be remotely close to making any top-100 list, or top ten outfielder lists. I wouldn't have been sure he'd make a top-30 outfielder list. I'm still hopeful that he'll work out. But I wouldn't have thought many people liked him as a top-100 guy.

thanks, David. Interesting and that's good news, to me. It's common for simpletons like me to like walks in and of themselves, but for more sophisticated people to emphasize that it's a matter of pitch selection and being more selective for pitches you can drive hard. That hitters shouldn't be actually trying for walks, they are more just an accidental result. If walks aren't a target, then it may be that a good hitter who's good at hitting strikes might perhaps have good plate discipline even without many walks, and you can't necessarily judge a guy's discipline as poor based on a lowish walk rate. I think that walks in and of themselves are a very valuable tool and goal, that guys should at times be looking to work for a walk, and that a low walk rate is a problem in and of itself. So I'm very glad to see Theo articulating that walks are a value.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/white-sox/post/_/id/8422/cespedes-soler-on-cubs-white-sox-radar Weird, McLeod talking about Cespedes and Soler. Surprised he'd share any scouting info if he planned to pursue either of them. Here's the last line of the article, which was written by Bruce Levine: I'd read about OF Yasiel Balaguert and RHP Carlos Martinez; but had we known about two others? If, in fact, Bruce has it correct and we really did sign two other guys besides Balaguert and Martinez?

Lake has some really noteworthy tools, and an exciting combo of power, speed, and arm. Rob's BB and K improvement graph shows typical walk-rate improvements on the order of 2%. If Lake improves his 2011 walk rate (19W/445AB) by 2%, a 2% improvement on awful will still be awful. A 3% improvement on his K-rate will still be awful. He'll have to improve way more than normal to blossom into a bad K/BB guy rather than the awful we've seen. (Merely bad would be a big improvement.) Interestingly, in 2010 he walked 35 times, poor but hardly awful. His K-rate has improved in each of the last two seasons, despite promotions. Lake is almost certain to always have ugly K/BB profiles. To me his question is whether he can improve them enough in the anti-awful direction, and can do enough good things to counterbalance the bad stuff and justify himself as a big-league player. From my rankings writeup (I'm not done, but currently I've got Lake around 14 or 15 on my list...): 'As with Vitters, future depends heavily on HR output. His awful K/BB profile show tons of holes, and promise a future with low average and low IsoD. At 25 HR, that could add enough hits and slugging to float an anti-awful BA and to perhaps offset the bad K’s and low walks. Seems very unsuited for the alleged “culture shift” that Hoyer supposedly wants, given his reputation as a “play the wrong way” slacker, non-hustler, and ignore-coaches guy. But perhaps a new regime will institute some changes at the minor-league level that will help him. The other big question is his position, obviously he can’t play SS.'

Thanks for more elaboration on Wells, cal and toonster. Absolutely, toonster, a quality sinker at 91-93 is very, very good if it has control, probably a lot better than a 94-95 four-seamer. With sinker like any pitch, control is still essential. Sounds like Wells has strike-throwing control, but he's got a ways to go on his other stuff. Question: What do you guys know about Rhee's fastball? Is he a 4-seam or a 2-seam guy? Or does he work 89-90 with his 2-seam, and touch 93-95 on occasion with 4-seam? How heavy/sinky is Beeler, actually? And does he have much prospect of developing a good breaking pitch?

The scouts have seen him for more than a week, they've had fall instrux and his HS games too. But yes, if they can't really tell yet, then it's fine to try until he proves inadequate. Fleita is still the boss of the farm. fleita and his staff IMO have consistently been overly slow to make changes. Jake Fox catcher; Lemahieu and Flaherty at SS; Lake at SS. (I also wonder about Vitters at 3B....) Big-league defense is hard at any position. Waiting till AA or AAA to finally start practicing a guy at the spot he'll likely spend his career, not sure that's soon enough. Other thing, minor-leaguers have a grueling schedule and I'm not sure how much they practice once the season starts. So if a guy is going to move, I think it would help to be spending fall instrux and spring training working and practicing at a new spot, and then start a new year at the new spot(s). If a kid has spent all his life and all of his pro career at SS, to suddenly switch him to 2B or 3B in the middle of a week in June, that might be kind of disrupting.

3B and SS both demand super-strong arms. SS and 2B both benefit from extreme range. 3B requires some real quickness, because the ball is past you so fast; more time to see and react up the middle. A 2B typically participates in more outs than a SS, and much more than a 3B. It may be that 2B defense is undervalued, and that "settling" there is more problematic than compromising at some other spots. A SS with range, hands or bad mechanics problems at SS will probably have those same problems at 2B. I expect that Lake will be bad at 2B like he's bad at SS, although perhaps he won't make as many wild throws. At the same time, his quick reactions and his big arm might be better utilized at 3B. It may be that if Baez has quick but just isn't that rangy, that he'd be better suited at 3B also, certainly his arm is good for 3B. But if he's actually pretty good at SS, just not quite as rangy as the elite norm for big-league SS, perhaps his range at 2B will be fine. And his arm at 2B will be quite good, even if it's perhaps not quite as amazing as most regular SS's display. I don't think there is any overload of real 2B prospects. So if Baez ends up being only slightly underqualified for SS, but would be qualified at 2B, that might be a great advantage spot to put his bat. I'm hopeful for all of our prospects. But I don't think Cerda is really going to defend adequately, or have the power, to be a real factor. Watkins is too feeble offensively, and strikes out so much for a singles hitter, that he's a non-factor. My little-informed and admittedly premature understanding is that Devoss really has little aptitude for 2B, and is a remotely long shot to play big-league defensive 2b. Not counting the currrent SS's and Watkins, Torreyes is probably the one and only guy we've got who projects as a serious defensive 2B. So in a sense if Vitters is the only 3B, and Torreyes is the only real 2B, if Baez could handle 2B at a high level, I'm not sure that would be talent wasted or blocked. Plus, there's also the question of Castro himself. How likely that he stays at SS, and if he moves I wonder which way he'd more likely go? I guess to me it seems so unlikely that Baez will actually stay at SS, I'd really kind of rather he got practicing at his real big-league position(s) sooner rather than later.

Theo might be misguided (I think that he is on this point, because I think walks in themselves are both a valuable target and a good manifestation of plate discipline). But I think he was quoted as saying that plate discipline isn't about taking walks, that it's about swinging at good pitches. It may be that Vitters reduction of K's reflects that by the Theo or Mark-Peel definition, that he was indeed more disciplined and was swinging at fewer bad balls, even if he didn't actually take enough strikes to get into walk-counts. I'm not arguing the importance or walks and IsoD, I think it's huge myself. But I think there's a real possibility that we'll be very disappointed in finding that Theo's guys don't actually value or teach or coach our guys into taking significantly more walks.

That is pretty encouraging and exciting. Glad to hear some good encouragement on Malave; and about Candelario apart from just the DSL stats which are available to everybody, but which don't mean the when a scouting guy like Wilken watches the guy that he'll be equally impressed. And the continued enthusiasm for Hernandez. Would sure be sweet if those guys pan out as real prospects. Too bad that the there is no indication that the cba constraints aren't real.

Laura or Maddux, other than the comments on Rhee, Beliveau's control and body fat, and Baez, was there any other actual scouting comments made by management guys about specific players? Ha? Szczur? Antigua? McNutt? Castillo? Jensen? Golden? Wells? Dunston? Rosario?