craig

Great to see the Jensen and Struck starts. Would be fun if Jensen turned out to be a prospect. He was consistently good against top California JC competition, so I assume he's got something, and his consistency hints to a degree of coordination and control. And USC normally recruits pretty high-level talent, so a USC scholarship, especially for a smaller guy, hints that he's perhaps not totally under-talented. IIRC, there was little scouting that he had any great breaking pitch. So I'm assuming that his progress will depend on how his slider comes along, whether or not he can develop a change, how fast he is, and how much deception/movement goes with his normal fastball.

Yes. Antigua has a much, much better chance to become a major leaguer as a serviceable lefty reliever than as a starter. If the premise was that getting him into relief is the best way to prepare him for a useful big-league role, I can see why they'd do that. I have no idea, does he have arm slot or splits that make him especially suitable?

Surprised that Raley is still in there. He can throw strikes, and any lefty who can throw strikes has a chance to slip into the major leagues in a relief role. But he seems remotely unlikely to make it as a winning big-league starter. I too would have rather taken a look at what Antigua might do given the chance to start.

A consistent 92/93 lefty with a wicked slider could be pretty good.... if he had good control. Or Felix Heredia if he doesn't have much control....

You never know with projection, of course. Will the projectible guy ever get faster, refine his promising slider, improve his promising control, or upgrade his promising changeup? But my understanding is that the Cubs scouts are pretty interested in Cruz. They think he has a wicked slider and a decent fastball. Control is a problem, of course, and a wicked slider can serve very well in relief. So maybe they'll just Loogy-track him. But I think they see his stuff/slider/potential as being at a different level than guys like Wang or Antigua.

I read that it's Wells-Burke game 4. That would leave Cruz for game 5, presumably, with Wang/Liria/whomever as other piggy-back types. I'm glad that Jensen is starting. Not big, he had good velocity but not overwhelming and I'm not sure how fast he'll really be when he's grinding out a start every 5 days, his breaking stuff hadn't scouted as being super exciting, and his signing bonus wasn't extraordinarily large. But I'm a big believe in control, and I thought he had that, and whatever his stuff it seemed to do very well in a very competitive California JC league. So I'm optimistic that he might emerge as a good prospect. Perhaps a flip is that perhaps having Jensen and francescon starting doesn't reflect super well on the international prospects. If Liria/Wang/Cruz were looking like big-time arms with big-time major-league rotation potential, they'd probably get rotation spots even if you did have a little 23-year-old changeup guy like Francescon.

Peoria Chiefs roster http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120401&content_id=27830444&vkey=pr_t443&fext=.jsp&sid=t443

Maybe this had been noted previously, but I was disappointed that not only is Maples injured, but our best new Latin pitching prospect Jose Arias is also injured. I'd gotten the sense that he was clearly a level above any of the other DSL guys. He's the huge 6'5" guy who had the 50K/8 BB split in 43 innings, with a 2.28 ERA.

Maybe this had been noted previously, but I was disappointed that not only is Maples injured, but our best new Latin pitching prospect Jose Arias is also injured. I'd gotten the sense that he was clearly a level above any of the other DSL guys. He's the huge 6'5" guy who had the 50K/8 BB split in 43 innings, with a 2.28 ERA.

Agree, that sets up Hernandez as the clear regular SS at Peoria. For Ridling, I think he may end up playing a lot of LF for Tennessee. Which he could have also done at Iowa. But given the Soriano situation, if he played enough LF and played well enough to look OK defensively in left, that seems to be a position of opportunity in the organization. At some point Soriano won't be in left, so if Ridling established himself as a decent fielder and really was hitting like a major leaguer, he might have a much better chance there than he'll ever get at 1B?

Yes, you could be loaded. Of course, it's March now. some of these guys might get promoted from XST to Peoria over the next ten weeks before they ever get to Boise. But this could be the best prospect-heavy Boise team since the Cubs affiliated there. May not be so strong in pitchers. Maples may be wilder than wild, or may be in Mesa, or may be in injury rehab, who knows. The short-season pitching doesn't look at all strong, at present.

Even if Maples was 100% healthy and they weren't tinkering with his mechanics, I never expected to see him in any box scores till short-season. It would have been a shock if he'd opened with Peoria. There was every indication that the Cubs pursued him with the understanding that he was wild and inconsistent and that they'd want/need to rework his delivery. Now is the time, and arizona is the place. The wrinkle is to what degree the "minor arm issue" is impacting. In the BA article, they mentioned the delivery first and the injury second. So hopefully the injury really is insignificant and will have no impact down the road. I love the farm box scores, so as a fan I love to see guys get to full season. But objectively, I totally think that XST makes much more sense for most of the younger kids. With Peoria, you play for three hours, but there is one single hitting coach and one single pitching coach, you're trying to find your way to the hotel, you're unpacking your stuff, you're trying to find where a Burger King is in Beloit, a day or two later you're spending hours getting ready for a bus and riding for hours to Grand Rapids. I don't think there's that much time for coaching and teaching. I don't know, but I'd guess most guys don't do any extended coached batting practice more than once a week, other than a few hacks before the game. In XST, the dorms are right near the fields. Multiple coaches. Classrooms set up for instruction. All the workout equipment, rehab stuff, medicals, nutritionist, etc.. I'd guess you can get tons more practice and instruction in XST than at Peoria. We can mock "Cubs way". But if "Cubs way" means that you practice and learn and spend hours on baseball every day and get lots of batting practice and coaching and fielding practice, instead of just going out and practicing all of your bad habits for 4 AB a day so that they become uncorrectable, mark me a big fan.

Maples not being healthy is common knowledge? What's the issue? BA had the following:

In the comments, responding to a toonster Q, Phil said that Acosta looks very stiff at SS and won't stay, compares him to what Lake looks like now, but said that he is a beast offensively with big-time power.

It was possible that Lake would be AAA and Szczur would be A+, but it had been hinted that both would be at AA. And this doesn't necessarily mean one of them might not get demoted once more (at least Szczur could) after they arrive at minor league camp. True. But it's usually fairly solid once they get optioned to that level from major league camp at this point of the spring. Not too surprising for Lake. He hasn't been able to hit in small-sample camp (hitting down in the .100's in Arizona while most guys are in the .300's), and he had only a 2-month can't-hit stretch in AA (.300 OBP, .600's OPS). He's a nice athletic body, as Sveum noted. A good dancer, but he's still shown no indication that he can either hit or field. Hopefully this year with a repeat at AA, he'll step it up and start to show some hint of transforming tools into production. This would seem to be a could opportunity to show he's getting there. Last year he showed progress when he repeated at Daytona, riding a nice .392 BABIP to get his OPS over .800 and his OBP at .336. I'm hoping that he can reduce his K rate a little bit this year, maybe get it down below 23%, and hopefully add more HR's so that he can get his K/HR ratio down below 7. I'm not sure that he'll be sustainably a .392 BABIP guy, so I'm hoping he can improve in the HR/BB/K departments so that even when assuming his BABIP does decline, that his overall numbers won't sag that much. I still think his game is as a toolsy power hitter. If a guy can hit 25 HR and play a rangy rocket-armed RF, he can afford to whiff a lot and walk not so much. With 25 HR, you can hit .280 even if you're BABIP is "only" .330 and even if you're still K'ing 23% of your AB. And if you hit 25 HR, you might get a few more "respect" walks. So if he could improve his walk rate in the antiawful direction up to 6%, combined with a HR-enabled .280 average, you could have an OBP over .320. Big year for him, and I'm really eager to see when they finally get around to putting him at a position that he might play in the majors, and whether if they get him off of SS he might look good somewhere else. At 3B or RF, will he still be erratic and non-instinctive, and play below his tools? Or in RF might he actually look really good, like a significant asset guy? Or will he be like a defensive Soriano before Alf's legs went bad? My understanding is that Szczur has looked very good in camp. I think I'm more optimistic about him than most of the board, since I'm optimistic about everybody and I think what struggles he's had have been too brief to conclude that they are enduring. But I don't at all like the prospect of him starting at AA. He had only a .270 BABIP at Daytona. If he looks like he's AA-ready based on camp, that's beautiful, and I hope it's true. But send him back to Daytona and let him produce there for at least a couple of weeks. If it's May 10th and he's producing like we optimists think he can, then move him up, he's earned it, and he'll still have most of the full summer to figure things out against the superior AA pitching. You've learned that your favorable evaluation is justified, and then see how it holds up in AA. But if he starts at Tenn, and he struggles again, what do you learn? You'll just be back to the "he's really inexperienced, at 22 he's still relatively age-young so give him time, he's still learning the game and how to apply his tools to baseball....". So I hope he starts at Daytona. Or if he does start at Tennessee, that he is hitting (and walking) so well that I have no reason to second guess. It could be fun to have some good hitters in AA/AAA this spring. Jackson/Rizzo/Vitters/Castillo (if he's there), that's the best group of Iowa guys in a while. Perhaps Ridling, maybe Flaherty will be back there too, supplemented by decent-hitting vets like wright, Adduci, and Lalli, that could be a very good lineup. And if Szczur is at AA, Szczur/Lake/Ha, those guys probably won't be all that productive relative to the competition, but still those are three real prospects, any one of which could emerge as a really substantial prospect if in fact any of them really does hit like a star, given that Lake and Szczur are only 22 and Ha only 21, and that with Szczur's lack of experience he's probably a very "young" 22 in terms of development.

Ok that sounds like when all is said and done he will have a good shot at ending up in Daytona when camp breaks. Also likely considering the similar climate in Daytona verses Peoria come April. Plus, he'll likely have a few fellow countrymen for teammates in Del Valle and Silva. Add Del valle to the injured list. We'll see with Concepcion's assignment level. Earlier I'd assumed he'd just go to XST (for instruction), or Peoria (to get the extra options year). But as you say, if they really are putting with the Tennessee group, combined with the Daytona weather and the Cuban camaraderie, Daytona does seem pretty plausible. It may be that they aren't at all concerned about the options factor. Hoyer said he's 20, (I'd been under the impression he was 19...), and repeatedly alluded to how advanced he is. So they may not be worried that it's going to take him five years to develop. Three years to work things through in the minors may be plenty, and if he's not ready to stick four years out, one more year probably won't matter anyway? They probably aren't giving him $6 million and a big-league contract with the view that he won't be ready within 4 years. Personally, given his late start, and given that I think they have some mechanical issues they want to adjust, I'd perhaps keep him in XST till May. By that time Peoria will be warm enough, and I'd maybe ship him there. If he looks great there, move him on up. But if he's struggling, or the mechanical adjustments or breaking-ball adjustments aren't taking quickly, maybe I'd leave him in Peoria to get that extra option year, just in case.

I'm not that surprised on ... .. - that's a lot of corner guys that need PT. I wonder if this suggests that Marco Hernandez and Gioskar Amaya are impressing so far, or have a higher chance of starting at full season than many expected. I wonder because ... b) The potential downward pressure is ... Arismendy Alcantara? Wes Darvill? Dustin Harrington? Pierre LePage? (I'm assuming Torreyes is locked into a spot in Daytona). Hard for me to see one of those guys displacing Hernande or Amaya if either shows enough in spring. I'm excited. I know I was far higher on Marco Hernandez than ... well ... anyone.. I wonder if part of the "Cubs Way" will value at least one extended spring training as the default for teenagers. Once you have daily games in full-season, there isn't that much time for practice and skills training and fundamentals. I think XST is much more training/instruction oriented. Hernandez has already experienced a full XST, plus a full year of training in the DSL academy. So he should be much better prepared.

Are we sure that means injured and it's not a catchall for something else? With some of those names, it could be that the Cubs want to be careful because they're changing mechanics or are strictly monitoring pitch counts and the like as a precaution. No, I'm not 100% certain what it means, and perhaps there are some exceptional circumstances. I do recall looking with both interest and trepidation at Phil's list for many springs past, and "LIMITED PARTICIPATION" IIRC always or usually was somebody with injury issues. For all we know somebody has a blister or a sprained ankle, and it's no precursor to shoulder surgery.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2012/03/09/cubs-minor-league-camp-rosters Maybe mentioned in some other thread, but Arizona Phil with minor league camp rosters. The most interesting aspect is always the "LIMITED PARTICIPATION" guys, which means guys who are injured. Maples is the headliner. Anybody know anything about that? How serious? Whitehurt, no surprise, although Fleita had duped some of us into wondering. Gretzky (I understood he wasn't 100% last year, but hadn't expected him to remain disabled this spring...), Schlecht, Urban, Elias, Easterling. A pretty big chunk of our superslot/overslot pool from last summer that we were so excited about.

How fast did Corpas or Parker look? Somebody has to be the 12th man, and I have no idea who that's going to be at present. Some guy I hardly think about might get that job.

Zero, did you see Lendy Castillo also? Any thoughts or observations on his stuff?

Were you actually watching, or just get that from box score? If you were watching, any scouting observations on him? Fast? Sharp breaking ball? Would love to see some young pitcher emerge as being legit.

http://muskat.mlblogs.com/ Stupid place to put this, probably. But Muskat has lineups for today's intrasquad game. I'm sure it doesn't mean anything, but an interesting thing is that on one team it's Szczur in left with Sappelt in center. The other team has Ha in center with Campana in left. Always just trying to look at guys, I'm sure. Ha's ability to play great CF might impact his career. Whether or not Sappelt can play a decent center field could impact his chances to make this roster or a future roster as a utility guy. (Or perhaps as a platoon guy some day, if for example Jackson gets eaten alive by big-league lefties...) I think whether or not Szczur is an asset CFer or is below-average or below-Ha or below-Jackson defensively might also impact his future.

Good: 1. Szczur is somewhat better at everything. Under new direction of the new regime, he walks a lot more, with another year of maturation combined with the more patient/selective approach he hits with more power, he's healthy from the start so he's stealing more, and his defense is better too. K's a lot more too, of course, but he emerges as the real deal. 2. Torreyes keeps hitting, and he too adds some walks while playing excellent defense. 3. Vitters surprised everybody and has a pretty good year. Hits .330 with over 20 HR's, improves his selectivity a bit, and looks OK in after a move to LF in mid-season. 4. Vogelbach is not sensational, but he has a good season. 5. Ha hits 18 HR's, makes some anti-awful strides in his walk rate, and starts to look like hie could hit enough HR's to make it in a corner or CF. Bad: 1. Baez whiffs too much, walks too little, hit too few HR's, and makes too many errors. 2. Dunston can't hit at all. Looks like a wasted million. 3. Jackson doesn't hit as many HR's, K's more than ever, and with so many K's and not so many HR's, he struggles to hit .260. 4. Reggie Golden gets completely overmatched in Peoria. He starts out whiffing, and by the time the weather warms up he's got no HR's and his batting average is .150. 5. Marco Hernandez is a disappointment at Peoria. No progress, no speed, no power.

I'll be borrowing from some of the others, but use a different format: Beliveau: Good, remains excellent. He goes up to the Cubs by July, does well, and establishes himself as a keeper. McNutt: Bad. He's again mediocre, too many HR's, too many walks, too few K's, not really that fast, not really any signature breaking pitch. Kind of the 2012 Jay Jackson. Any top-100 consideration is long foggy history by October. Hayden Simpson: Good. He's a new man, he flashes 95's and 96's on occasion, he blends in some good breaking pitches, and works in the 88-93 range comfortably. Neither his fastball nor any individual pitch is exceptional, but he commands his arsenal well enough to look like a a realistic rotation prospect. He reaches Daytona for sure, and perhaps even Tennessee. He is a candidate for top-100 lists by October. He's one of the big breakout guys. Whitenack: Bad and Good. The stuff about being back and starting the season is baloney. By August, he's pitching pretty regularly, and hopes are reasonable that he'll be good again in 2013. But too soon to tell. Rhee: Good. Is effective in AA, and looks like a decent back-of-rotation prospect, perhaps even does so well that he emerges as a fringy top-100 prospect. Dolis: Bad. Wild as always. Maples: Good. Control shows some progress, and he flashes at times at Boise. Wells: Bad. Doesn't show much progress. Concepcion: Good. Looks smooth, has good control and consistency, gets velocity reports of 95-96 on occasion, and there are flashes of a good breaking ball. Top-100 guy next winter. He's a big breakout guy. Zych: Bad. Wild, inconsistent. Cates: Good. Everything improves. Velocity is good, command improves, changeup improves, and slider shows some promise. Very effective at Daytona, but struggles in late-season Tennessee showing. Kurcz: Bad. As inconsistent as before, no sign of progress. Allows too many HR's. Struck: Good. Forgotten prospect, he has a good year at Iowa. Doesn't emerge as any thriller prospect, but looks like a major leaguer in some role. Breaking stuff gets more consistent, command improves, and he remains an anti-HR guy. Antigua: Bad. Too many HR's, not consistent enough to get by with his fringy stuff. Beeler: Good. Not dramatically knockout good, but everything is somewhat better. A little faster and more consistently so. A little more command with his fastball. Slider is sharper. Adds a cutter that really helps him. Becomes less aggressive, so he walks more but more nibbles get more K's and cut way down on the HR's. Rosario: Bad. Not enough control or command, too inconsistent. Jensen: Good. Lacks the big name, but outpitches everybody at Boise. Heh, this is fun. If half of the pitching prospects come out "good", that's probably pretty unrealistically optimistic, isn't it.