craig

toonster, thanks for update on Loosen's stuff. I hadn't given him a thought entering this season, but he's been really good after his DL. So, what was his injury that kept him out for 17 days in April? He's been 31K/9BB/31IP/19H, a WHIP under 1. Those are very good numbers. 15K/1BB over his last two starts. Probably flukey and all that, and non-sustainable. But if he can/does sustain that, he sounbds pretty interesting. If he's really consistantly 89-92, and sometimes 93-94, that's not too slow to be good, if you're locating that and obviously dependingon the movement. A well-controled 90-94 fastball and a good slider can get a guy pretty far.

He can't walk if they roster him. If they don't like him enough to roster him, it probably means he isn't looking that promising. But I think he clearly does look promising, so I think it's a no-brainer that he gets rostered and will then have up to three more options years to polish his craft. Or am I missing something, such that the normal three years of options control doesn't apply to a player with 6 years of minor-league experience beforehand?

Both of Jackson's hits were infield hits.

Cates got sent down from Daytona to XST.

Those numbers are per PA, right? I know he was at around 35% per AB at Iowa last year. Those numbers suggest what's probably typical for the vast majority of baseball players: K's usually go up with level. As he's worked from A- to A+ to AA to AAA, the K-rate continues to grow. And 23-25% is very high to start with, especially relative to PA rather than AB. But the jump to AAA has been pretty severe. Too many breaking balls? He's something of a guess-hitter, and it's harder to guess right against more experienced multi-pitch junkballing AAA guys? It's just gone to his head and he's just a mess now?

Antigua does settle down, and ends up with only the two runs over 4 innings. Lake turned a sacrifice into a bunt single, for the moment gets his average up over .300 and his OBP over .400. He's never before gone 50 AB into a league with a K-rate below 20%. Would sure be fun if that proved to be more than a small-sample fluke. Probably he'll rack up 8 new K's by Sunday night, now.

Antigua laboring in his rotation debut. 5 hits and 2runs in first two innings, four of the first six guys got hits, two of them doubles, and one of the outs the guy lined to third and the baserunner at 3rd was doubled off, so fair chance that was hit hard too. Hopefully he settles down.

I'm guessing Raley is going up to Iowa to take Jay Jackson's spot? Volstad, Rusin, DeLaCruz, Lopez, and Raley/Jackson? AJ Morris has been good lately. Two more perfect innings. Alcantara made two more errors, he's up to 19 already. Szczur two hits, a walk leading to the winning run, and a SB. He's up to .270 with OBP in .360's. I hope they leave him alone, though, rather than rushing him up to AA. He's due for some slump.

The recent 40%+ rate is probably a slump that won't last forever. But he's been consistently 35% or worse for over 300 Iowa AB's. He was 35% k-rate last summer there, he was up in that neighborhood in April, now it's accelerated some.

No. I'm sure he primarily played OF in Korea. My recall is that the standout tool when he signed was the arm, which fit for RF/C, or for CF. I think he was projected for RF when he signed because he wasn't stop-watch fast then, just as he isn't now. Lee and Ha were the speedsters, Kim was the serious power prospect, Na was the supposedly gold-glove CF, and Ha was the other guy with the good arm. Most American HSers played SS or CF in HS because that's where the best athletes/prospects usually go, and anybody who's good enough to be a decent pro prospect was probably the best athlete/prospect on his HS team. I suspect the same principle might apply in Korea. So my guess is that Ha played CF in Korea, but BA/scouts just didn't expect him to play there in the pros.

Jackson scatters 9 hits and 6 runs over his 3 innings. On Raley and Ha, I don't think I agree strongly with either of you. prior: the idea on excellent athletes is that in time they're more likely to play up to their tools, and they may be playing below their potential because they haven't focused. Samardz had obvious big tools as a pitcher, but it took him many years to play up to them. I think the others feel that Ralay may already be playing up to his tools, but he just doesn't have that many. So more time won't help him. I think they are probably right, but I hope you're right. Sometimes breaking balls change, and guys do learn them. Samardz at first was a power guy, but he fiddled around with different breaking balls for years. Now suddenly this year he's a 4-pitch guy. So I suppose the analogy is there that even though Raley is never going to add velocity, that in time he might be improving and commanding three several non-fastball pitches that he can't command now. If so, he could strike more guys out, and become better than he is now. I hope so, but don't expect it. On Ha, the Cubs tried him at catcher, and in corner OF before moving him to CF. But my understanding is that he played lots of CF in Korea. So that it's not really a new spot for him that he's only played for 14 months. I don't imagine his future will be so much dictated by his CF defense as by his bat. If he hits HR's, he'll have a shot to be a good regular. If he doesn't, he won't. He hit 11 last year at age 20, so you'd think there must be some potential there. But not going to be more than a 4th OF at that with no HR's. At last year's HR pace, he should have 3 (or more) by now. Pop 3 HR's into his stats, and he'd be hitting .280, with a .350 OBP, and a .760 OPS, and that would look not bad for a 21-year-old CFer. Loosen is ruining his 0.33 GO/AO ratio.

About time ... I imagine Burke or Jensen have next man up rights ... Wonder who is next guy up from XST - Peralta or Cruz would be the guess if they wanted a possible starter. Wells is 10K/0BB/7 hits/8IP over this last two outings. 29K/7BB/35IP/0HR on the season looks like very nice splits. So there is good reason to be encouraged and hopeful. So I'm feeling optimistic. Not sure any other promotions are very urgent. Burke could at any point, probably. And who knows how long they want to stick with him in rotation, or whether they kind of figure that it's just a matter of time before they move him to relief. Jensen I'd think should stay put for a while. First year pro, not a rush. He's allowed 15 runs over his last four starts (20 innings), so for the moment it seems he's well challenged at the level he's at.

They do - they have HS baseball but don't have travel leagues like we do in the U.S. and Canada. My ignorant impression was that Koreans might tend to work very hard at the game, and that the number of hours of practice/drill/coaching/practice is very high. This may be cultural bias/ignorance. But in a country where kids do 12 months of school and study obsessively to prepare for ACT tests and the like, baseball coaches and prospects might likewise be somewhat obsessive about preparing for baseball.

If Wang was 92-95 last night with a 78-80 good curve last night, that sounds pretty good. And would seem to fit with his good results thus far this spring. That sounds like a guy who's got a chance. As we've seen with the big-league Cubs this spring, it's not like competent relievers are easy to find or are easily replaced. So thanks for that info, iowa. As for Rhee, If Wang is 92-95 with a good curve, and Rhee has three pitches that are better, that sounds really good for Rhee. But if Rhee has a fast fastball with good movement, a good curve, and a premium change/split, why don't the hitters notice? 90-94 with movement, top change, and a solid breaking ball, those sound like good big-league pitches and that he'd have good success in minors. But it seems he's been consistently mediocre, and his early results this spring are as or more mediocre than before. High HR rate, low K-rate, modest K/BB ratio, mediocre WHIP, ERA's always over 4. Somehow the actual results don't seem to match the alleged quality stuff. High-HR/low-K is a pretty shaky foundation. Hopefully he's just ready to kick it in. He did show some hints of more K's last year, and he's wiggled through 2 starts and 11 innings now without a HR now, so maybe he's ready to take off. Would sure be nice.

Nice to see some of the draft picks getting some hits recently in Mesa. Vogelbach has been terrible, but Lockhart getting a lot of hits lately, Shoulders had a little burst, Gretzky and Schlecht have gotten some. Even Dunston hasn't been terrible. I think even Trey Martin has gotten a hit lately.

2/3 day jumps his OBP by 8 points and OPS by 42. HR's help stats. A lot.

Day behind, but several thoughts on Szczur. First, he just might not be very good. Many guys, if they aren't great in A, it just gets worse and worse with promotions and better pitching. But, a .355 OBP isn't a bad starting point for a guy with serious leadoff speed and good CF defense. Four reasons why his OBP might get better: 1. LHP. He's got only a .249 OBP versus lefties. That will likely improve. 2. BABIP: .306. Contact hitters with speed often have much higher BABIP's, so that may go up. 3. HR: Zero, he hit 10 last year. Even a few accidental HR's would raise the BABIP. 10 HR over 500 AB is worth 20 OBP points. 4. K-rate. 16% this year, was 11% last year. It might go down. It's not easy to readjust the approach some, with the work-the-count patience stuff. It's possible that he's kind of figuring out how to balance all that and reach a new equilibrium as a hitter. We'll see how the season unfolds. But .355 OBP isn't that bad a starting point, when he hasn't seemed to have much of anything (HR, BABIP...) working in it's favor thus far. I think it's more likely to get better than to get worse as the season progresses at Daytona.

I think multi-position guys tend to be guys who have fairly decent instincts defensively. May not be really gifted at any individual position, but can usually catch whatever they can reach, throw the ball straight, and read the ball OK anywhere. Bellhorn, DeRosa, Jose Hernandez, Theriot, they tended to be fairly instinctive and competent wherever you played them. Not great anywhere, and maybe short on range or arm for some of the positions they played at, but they wouldn't be embarrassing themselves. They could catch what they could get to and throw the ball straight no matter where you put them. I get the impression that Lake seems rather non-instinctive defensively and may not be competent at either catching the ball or throwing the ball straight at present from any position, much less expecting him to do so from five positions. I think he might end up needing to kind of memorize how to play one or two positions. Hopefully he'll end up being quite good at either 3rd or RF. And will hit enough so that we'll want him to play.

By many accounts, he's a lot taller/bigger than 6'2" now. I think RF would make a lot of sense, if he hits enough. He may resemble Soriano. Great arm, fast, athletic, the tools would seem to profile great in RF. Soriano had great infield tools, but never became even a decent infielder. Great outfield tools, but never became a good outfielder either. Hopefully Lake with practice and experience will get good, or at least acceptable, somewhere.

His BA-non-BIP is .318 at present. His K/HR ratio is around 2:1. So even if his BABIP relaxed to a more average number, he'd still be hitting around .320.

His curve and change both have the potential to be plus pitches. I thought I'd read some report that his 2-seamer has some decent sink? Not really? Most outs are made with movement, not velocity. If a guy can command both curve and change, he's got a chance. In my naive experience, though, nobody commands everything all the time, and then you get slaughtered when you're not on your game. (I think this has been something of Rusin's history; he pitches quite a few good games, but when he's bad he's really bad.) I always worry some about the "Micah Bowie" factor, too. Some of you will remember Bowie, lefty curveballer with good minor-league numbers. And in minors he got to enough 2-strike counts to score K's. But in the majors, he was scared to throw his fastball over the plate, and the hitters would just lay off his curveball, which didn't all that often actually go for strikes. So he was pitching 2-0, 3-1 all the time so they had no reason to suck for his curveballs. Rusin has somehow never walked a lot of guys. So either his offspeed stuff must have pretty good "get me over" ability, or else whatever his velocity lacks, he's still able to throw it for strikes. He's hot right now, so I'm interested. But good chance he'll have a big-league career, but as a lefty reliever. His Loogy splits this year are pretty striking.

On Lake, I don't think he's even close to castro defensively, nor does he project as well. The board consensus is that there is no rush to move him. I agree and disagree. It may be true that there is no rush, but that might be assuming either that he's never going to be more than a minor league journeyman, or else that he'll need multiple more developmental years in the minors anyway, such that there is little reason to prepare him for the position(s) he might play in the majors as either a starter or a utility player. He's not been a quick study defensively. So I don't think it makes sense that when he's struggled to become fundamentally sound at SS after 5 years of instruction, that suddenly 5 weeks or even 5 months is going to make him a fundamentally sound, intelligent, smooth player at 2B or 3B, or both. It's likely going to take him at least a year to become even slightly better than "raw" at any new infield position, I'd think. I can see the logic of letting such a raw hitter stay stable defensively, so that he can perhaps focus for this season on his hitting. And then give him 2013 to work on a new position, such that perhaps at some point in 2014 he'd be ready enough defensively for a callup. But I'd think if we have any real hopes of having him big-league ready-to-stay at some point in late 2013, you oughta get him to a big-league position defensively ASAP. Probably only an issue, though, if he improves a lot as a power hitter. If he's a so-so raw hitter, which positions he can't play defensively might not matter much.

Jackson may have been on a "chucker" in 08-09, but he got a lot of K's and outs and walked very few. IN 2010-2012, he's been terrible, with very few K's, and a hit-allowing machine, and lots of HR's. If 2010 Jackson was the "improved' version, there was little hint of that based on his K-rates or actual effectiveness. He was a prospect at one point because he had a good fastball, excellent K/BB results, and good results in general, and he was young. Now that he's old, has terrible K/BB/HR results, has a hit-machine fastball, and that's his best pitch, I'd stick a fork in him. He may need to try to stretch out his pro career in a lower-than AAA level, as a journeyman reliever, or in Indy Ball. But not much indication that he has any of the qualities that could make him even a sub-average big-leaguer reliever. IMO.

Wells has given up 24 hits in 17 innings. Maybe he's been really unlucky, or maybe he's serving up a lot of whackable strikes. He's given up 18 runs in 17 innings. Minor league pitchers sometimes get deceptively low ERA's because so many of the runs they allow get ignored as unearned. You know, get two outs, walk the bases loaded, have a fielder make an error, then give up five more hits before getting an out. Some terrible pitching, but it helps your ERA because they all list as unearned. Not saying Wells has been like that, but it's a given that ERA's tend to be deceptively low for groundball pitchers because groundballs cause a lot more errors than flies. I'd had a lot of hopes for him entering this season, but 18 runs allowed in 17 April innings in cold Midwest League may involve more than just bad luck.

I think Francescon's gotten a full workload, he just hasn't been as consistently pitch-efficient as Jensen. Jensen's allowed few walks and few hits, and he hasn't worked lots of long-count K-AB's either. Francescon as gone relatively deep in three of his four starts. 7 innings today when he was cruising ala Jensen. 4.2 his first outing, despite 9 K's. That's pretty full under their opening pitch count. 5.2 his second start, again pretty long given pitch counts. It was really one start 3 which was short, but I'm guessing with three walks and three hits, he was laboring and probably exhausted his count before finishing the 4th. I'm also speculating that his 3rd start was also subject to the early-April unexpanded pitch count limits. Wang has been excellent. 1 hit and 1 walk in 8 innings. Cruz has been terrible, as wild as always and his velocity seems to be declining rather than improving. And Liria, as you say, seems to be wild and unimproved. Rosario hasn't been much either.