craig

I voted Gray, because he seems the one capable of being a superstar/extraordinary. But I have no idea, and I'm very comfortable trusting whatever management decides. If they go Frazier, I'm good with that. If they choose Bryant, I'll totally trust that a lot of guys way smarter than me who spent zillions of hours studying it out will have made an intelligent decision. But ignorantly and subjectively, I think Appel can be good, but I'm not presently optimistic about being great. I think Bryant is the safest and perhaps the best pick, but he's going to K too much to become amazing, I think. On timeline, I really don't see Gray being much behind Appel. Because he's junior not senior, I suppose politically it's easier to start him lower. And maybe he's a little behind. But to me both seem to be pretty far along control-wise, and I don't see much reason why Gray couldn't start in AA next year and be up late next summer, if things go well. Particularly if he pitches a couple of good starts in A+ this summer (although I doubt either guy will pitch this summer if we draft one). On Bryant, I'm not that concerned about the 3B/OF thing. If they think he can hit, take him; if not, don't. If you believe he's going to be hitting 30+ HR's and taking 80 walks a year, I'll take him. (I see him as maybe a Derrek Lee type guy). I have no concerns about his potential to play corner outfield, including RF given his strong arm. I'd almost rather take him for OF and don't look back, rather than constantly wondering/worrying about whether he can play decent 3B, how long will he be able to stay, is his bat good enough to justify his defense, etc.. I'm not sure I want an Aram-type 3B, where we're always wondering about how much value he costs us. Or Vitters coming through, is he good enough or not? I'd like to assemble an infield where 1B/2B/3B are all solid defensively, and where the question of "how far below-average is too far to tolerate?" is not a question we need to think about all the time. Heh, plus Baez is going to improve his hitting a bunch and become a major leaguer, and play a good 3b for us eventually. While Alcantara is OPS'ing at .800+ at 2b. Is there any doubt? :)

Thanks. Will be interesting how they use him. With Jackson struggling (until yesterday), DeJesus getting no younger, and Almora still years away at best, CF would seem to still be an open position. Well, really all outfield positions. For Lake, I think the power is the key. He's going to whiff a lot, and walk little. But if he could hit enough HR's, he could be usable. His speed and arm would theoretically make his well-tooled for CF/RF. Of course, that also seemed true when Soriano signed and began in CF, so speed/arm/"athleticism" obviously doesn't always sum up to good OF defense.

Has Lake been in center in all his rehab games? Do you think he's just moved to OF, or what? I hope so, myself. I just don't believe he'll ever be adequate in the infield. Too big for SS, and he's been such a prolific error-maker for so many year, I just don't believe that's ever going to improve enough. Obviously not likely that he'll hit enough for OF, but that's more likely than that he'll play good 3B. Heh, speaking of 3B, I noted that Mike Olt, who many posters were really sold on, has a .591 OPS with 39K/89AB. Ouch.

I'd think Vogelbach is well behind Alcantara at this point, unless he starts mashing. Vogelbach's only a year younger, two levels behind, has a sub-.800 OPS, and is a DH/1B. Vogelbach's got no shot at top-100 status with the level of production he's shown thus far. Now many 20-year-old low-A .794-OPS 1B/DH guys making the top 100.

Geiger's a weird case. I suspect he's due for a slump and his numbers will drop a bunch, kind of like two years ago when Justin Bour was so great at Daytona for a couple of months. But, I also wonder whether he might not be due for a hot streak that could make his numbers look even better. Last year he hit 17 HR's in 75 games, but my recall is that he had a couple of flurries, weeks in which he hit 5 HR's in a week. For a guy who hit 17 in 75 games last year, having only 6 thus far this year seems kinda low. If he had an extra 4 HR's on his record, he'd be up around .950 OPS or something like that. His profile is radically different. He had 79K/20BB/17HR/303 AB; this year it's 33K/21BB/6HR/197 AB. So his K-rate is not even 2/3 of last year. Probably why his HR rate is barely 50% of what it was last year. Still, pretty rare to have a guy drop his K-rate that dramatically. If he could recover more/most of his HR rate from last year, while keeping the K/BB/AB rates he's shown this year, he might look pretty interesting.

I've been well behind the curve on Alcantara, but yes he's certainly looking interesting. Certainly being #5 would make sense, behind Soler/Almora/Baez and Johnson maybe? One could perhaps make an argument for #4, ahead of Johnson. His stats indeed look very much like Baez, although Baez has 23 doubles/triples to 12 for AA. Heh heh, and of course 49/20 K/BB versus 56/9. I worry a ton about Baez's K-rate, and I'm not alone. But there seems to be too little concern about Alcantara's K-rate. 49K/199AB is kinda high, I think. Not quite like Brett Jackson had in AA, and not quite like Baez has this year, but I'd think a lot of guys who K that often in AA have a lot of problems against the better movement in the majors. He's only 21, so he's got time to get better. And if he could improve enough to carry his current numbers up to the majors, it would be awesome. Who wouldn't love an .832-OPS middle infielder with speed and strong defensive tools, if he could get a handle on his errors? While Alcantara's numbers look very similar to Baez's, I wonder how we'd feel if Baez didn't improve his numbers. If he stepped to AA next year, and produced .832-.841 OPS, would we be relieved/thrilled that he'd held up to AA? Or disappointed that he hadn't stepped up further into more studly range?

Yeah, .284/.346/.448/.794 isn't really that great of a line for a DH-1B type and who isn't young for a top prospect in low-A. He needs to be more than a .448-slugger. There's nothing worrisome in his splits or in any scouting reports on his hitting. And nothing flukish about his BABIP (.310 or something like that?) Seems his scouting is not as a slugger, scouting always emphasize line-drive whole-field approach. But at some point I think he's going to need to somehow learn to get a little more loft on his balls so that he gets more HR's. Being line-drive has it's plusses, and hard line-drive HR's are fun to watch. But if he's going to make it, he's going to need to increase his productive power somehow. If some of the hard-hit line-drive singles and line-outs got a little more lift and turned into HR's, that would help a lot. I kind of have the feeling he's due for a hot week, though. A good hot streak could make those nothing-special stats look a lot more interesting.

Daytona hasn't been able to hold it's 7-1 lead. Suarez is up from XST, walks 4 in his inning. Soler has scored 4 runs. For Kane, Reggie Golden got his first hit. Almora playing, 0-4 thus far.

Yes. It looks somewhat doubtful that he's going to be the superstar .950-OPS gold-glove SS, and it's still possible that he'll never make it. But there's still a very huge chance that he'll up somewhere in the huge landscape in between. Right now he's a .306-OBP guy with enough slugging to be high .700's OPS. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he made the majors being that same general kind of guy: somebody who falls in the .750-.800 OPS range, with a low OBP. Suppose, hypothetically, he matures into a .270/.310/.770 guy in the majors. With good defense, that makes a good 2B/SS; an average LF that a good team might like to upgrade; and with 70 errors (or 30..) a guy even the worst team is trying to replace.

I get your point, and it's clear that his arm is fine for SS. But, I think scouts are routinely thinking about what might be, **conditional on a player improving**. I doubt any of the scouts who were thinking favorably about Baez at SS would have predicted he'd have 25 errors in May. SS's are involved in a lot of plays and make a ton of hurried and off-balance throws from all kinds of angles and distances. There's a matter of consistency and concentration required that goes beyond arm/range/hands tools. It's not clear that Baez is showing appropriate progress, or any progress at all, in the areas of consistency and concentration. At some point, he'll need to get a LOT better, or find a new spot.

Yes. If the errors were based on infield and 1B, the other guys should suffer accordingly. Baez has 25/46 errors/games, Saunders 3/35, Carhart 4/47. So I think it really is Baez more than Geiger or the infield. So I think the K/BB/errors are all serious concerns.

Heh heh, in the 6th Scott lost his control and allowed 2 walks and 4 hits. Consistency is hard.

He's generally matching his profile at Boise: he has yet to allow a HR as a pro pitcher. If you don't walk many and don't give up any HR's, you can afford to live without many K's. But his control is the big question. This is start #5, and four have been variably good (2.0 ERA, 15K/4BB/17H/23 innings). But the one "bad" start was 5 walks and he got killed. Overall his control has been pretty good, perhaps more consistent than at Boise; but the composite numbers reflect the bad-control day, too. I know we got a high-80's velocity in his first start. I'll be curious to see what it is when it's warm and he's loose, but also when he's been making enough starts so that he might not be so strong and fresh as pitchers tend to be in April. Speaking of low-K groundball guys, Dallas Beeler has also been a groundball guy for a while; but in previous years he still allowed a lot of HR's. With low K's and plenty of HR's, even without many walks he wasn't very effective. When he allowed three HR's in his first start this year, I figured same old story for him. But since then, he hasn't allowed a HR, has a huge GB ratio, and doesn't walk people. He's sitting with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Obviously FIP is higher, and he must be getting kinda lucky. But I'm guessing his control and/or slider have gotten better and he's more consistent. Nice to see things going well for him. Will be interesting to see how that holds up over the next months. At 23 he's not a fossil yet.

You expect Soler to spend the whole year in high A? That would be incredibly disappointing to me. I think his approach is advanced enough already that he can move quickly. I don't expect Soler to spend the whole year in high A, no. (Although the way he's been struggling lately, maybe he will.) What I meant was that no good position prospects are playing really well or dominating their leagues and commanding/earning promotions right now. So none are really candidates to be "first to get promoted", or to get promoted anytime soon. I think there are a couple of common "promotion" windows. The first is in May. A guy spends 6 weeks or so at a level, dominates it or performs well enough for long enough to merit the step. It often seems that sometime in or near the end of May is when some guys get bumped. Long enough for it to be more than just a small-sample hot streak. The second is at the half-way point. Often after a level's all-star game, or when they start the "standings" for the second half. A third is a little later, but early enough so that the guy will get a real taste of the next level. Get a full month or so at the next level. Get in 80+ AB's at the next level. A fourth is very late. Just to give a little taste, or perhaps to extend a season by promoting to a team that will play longer in the playoffs or something. My expectation is that Soler or Baez might get the August-in-AA sample (case 3), but will need to start playing a lot better to earn a half-way promotion. And have no chance of earning May promotion. Daytona has 12 guys who have played in more than 5 games. Soler and Baez are both in the bottom half for average; neither are in the top 3rd for OPS; Soler is in the bottom half for OBP; and of course Baez is the worst of the 12 for OBP. Defensively Baez has 12 errors; the rest of the team has 16. (We often blame errors on bad fields/lights/scorekeepers; but those factors don't seem to be killing the other defenders.....) Seems to me that both Baez and Soler are plenty challenged in A-ball right now. Neither one will be moving up anytime soon.

Johnson stands out. *Well, of course Garza, too! I don't really see any significant position players earning a promotion. *John Andreoli is certainly deserving, although obviously he's a somewhat limited prospect. *Szczur has a .734 OPS. Says something about the poverty of productive position prospects when a .734-OPS is one of out top promotion candidates. *Dunston might replace Trey Martin and his .543 OPS. But Martin might just be on borrowed time till Almora. Pitchers: *Johnson has been good and seems obvious. No other starters at Kane. *Daytona, Kirk might go, just based on experience, but that's not significant. *I think Cates is kinda fragile; after his problems last year, I think they're going to prefer if he can extend some success, rather than promoting him as soon as he hits a hot streak. *Tennessee, Beeler, Jokisch, Cabrera, and even Hendricks are all possibilities. Hendricks least, obviously, because he's just gotten to AA, plus his arm is limited, so he'll need to succeed longer. But for Beeler and Jokisch, this is their third year in AA, and it's hardly like Iowa is "blocked" (Loux-Struck-Moscoso-Rusin-Raley-Carpenter are all limited.) Since allowing 3 HR on opening day, Beeler has kept the ball in the park, and he doesn't walk guys. He and Jokisch could each go up at any time.

Man, we've been sure getting a lot of good pitching lately. Johnson, Wells, Cates, Hendricks, Feldman.... Some pretty positive developments.

Yeah, that was kind of depressing. I'd hoped he was signed because he looked maybe special as a hitter. If he's just another defense-first guy, we-hope-he'll-hit-enough-someday, that's kind of a bummer. That's probably unfair, that's just how I felt when I read that. O well, comps are just comps, hopefully he'll not be nearly so limited offensively as Hernandez. Probably this was actually intended as a compliment by Phil.

I don't like Meadows much, because he doesn't seem to be a great hitter, either in terms of pure contact amazing-ness or in terms of power. I'm not sure how good Bryant or Frazier project as hitters. But **if** Madison is really sold on them as OBP/slugging machines, I'd not let possible future in corner knock them off my list. If they think one of them can hit like Braun, or Aram, or Matt Holiday, or Jim Edmonds, or Barry Bonds, or Lance Berkman, and they can play a **good** corner (even if it's "only" left rather than right), I'll take that. Unfortunately I doubt either are very safe to be able to hit and mash and get on base like that.

I voted for both Zych and Morris in my top-50. Morris was my surprise pick, since his numbers last year were awesome. Zych has been awful this year, no K-ball at all. Morris has also been a disappointment. Today, he came out to replace hatley in the 7th. Then he got replaced by Zych before anything happened, at least according to the Milb.com recap. I expect that means he's reinjured. Too bad for him. I kinda suspect something is probably wrong with Zych as well, but we'll see. Maybe it's just mechanics in his case. Hatley has been wild, so he doesn't seem to be stepping up as needed.

I'm hoping Conway makes it up to Kane County before the Boise season starts. Otherwise, yeah, that's their likely rotation.... Yes, that should be a very interesting rotation. Thanks for the Mesa info brickhouse and the link, cal. Very encouraging to see Maples throw strikes and have a clean game. Conway continues to sound reasonably effective, and certainly no health concerns. I agree with you, cal, it's two months or close before Boise starts, it would be nice if Conway stays healthy and effective enough to justify a callup to Kane County. Rosario too, although he's sounded pretty ineffective in Mesa. I haven't seen much of Prieto in Phil's game accounts. I wonder if he's relief track, or if he might not make for a 5th Boise guy. I see no urgency on Maples getting to Kane. He's a talented guy, but whatever his age might be, he's not that experienced. I'd love it if he's ready to go to Kane and pitch well there. But given that he turned 19 in high school, and has basically lost the last two summers, developmentally he could just as well be 18 or 19. I don't see any problem with having him pitch at Boise this summer. He'll be no older than some college pick who gets signed and goes to Boise, and younger than most. I think it's about getting his pitching right and his delivery consistent. If he can go to Boise and do well there, I won't be disappointed with that.

When I saw him this spring, I was sitting behind the radar guns. His fastball was 92-93 but he was missing with it. Apparently, he's hitting his spots now. As a lefty, if he can command a 93 mph fastball, he's got a chance if he can stay healthy... Thanks to both of you. Most K's are on breaking balls, so he must have something pretty sharp But yeah, a lefty at 93 who's got a put away pitch to go with it, that's a guy who can pitch in the majors for a lot of years. Hope he stays healthy. I think even back when we got him, there hadn't been that much info on his stuff, although he hadn't come over with a big-time velocity rep. Does anybody remember what his injury actually was? He was the best pitcher at Daytona for 9 starts 2 years ago, but then he was gone, and pitched only 32 innings last year. Was he a TJ surgery, or something else? His time gone seems possible for TJ, although almost a little short. Here's hoping he works out. Heh, some of the other relievers that I liked for the top-50 list haven't started well (Zych, Morris).

Rosscup is now 16K/9 IP. In two of his outings, one of them a 2 inning job, he had none. So actually his 16K are in the other 6 innings. 6 innings, 16 out of the 18 outs by K? Pretty funny. Seems like when he's on he's on. I wonder what he gets the outs with?

Agree, it will be really interesting to see how it plays out. I don't think you can do the K/W without also including the HR's. His OBP/BA/OPS is lifted by the HR's, and I doubt he'll sustain his HR rate. (I don't expect him to hit 28 or more HR's this season...) 19K/73AB is a high K-rate (about like Jackson his first year in AA.) But 4HR per 19K offsets the K's and maintains good batting average and OBP. Despite all those K's, he's needed only a .340 BABIP to sustain his healthy .288 average, thanks to the HR's. But, if those HR's tail off while he maintains that kind of K-rate, his average will go down and his OBP will be back to normal. If he maintains his current K/BABIP rates and I multiply volume by 7 (18 games to 126 games), while only bumping his HR's to 10 instead of 28, he'd end with a .252 average, and lowish OBP. I doubt his HR-rate is sustainable, although I hope I'm wrong. My point, I guess, is that the increase in BB's has been neutralized by the increase in K's. My guess is he'll made adjustments to reduce the high K-rate, and sacrifice some of his new-found BB-rate. Either way, it will be really interesting to see how things settle out in the months ahead. An interesting note is that he's still predominantly a singles hitter. I like to see 30% of a prospects hits go for XB, or more. Last year, 73% of Alcantara's hits were singles. 76% singles this far. For context, Barney was a 73% singles guy last year. Heh, of course if he's 10SB/0CS, and I prorate that to 70SB/0CS, a lot of his walks/singles will be doubles! I think it would be REALLY cool if his current base-stealing binge was legit.

Alcantara with his daily error. 8 errors so far.

Vogelbach adds his 16th single. Marco Hernandez has 3K/1BB/2XBH in 50 AB. OPS is around .600, OBP below .300 again.