craig

From Bleacher nation. So, doesn't mean anything about Birdsell being miraculously ready to pitch.

Tangent, given reference to Conrad. Has anything been seen of him in camp? Kinda interesting that Hartshorn has gotten into 3 games, but to my recall I don't recall seeing Conrad's name in any. Is he still too injured to play? Will he be a late-start guy? Hartshorn is really interesting. I'm an optimist, but I am feeling a lot of trust in the Cubs scouting and development. If they prioritized him enough to pay $2M bonus, they obviously saw lots to like, and some of the media guys did also. I'm totally good with him at 9, I'd have him higher myself. I'd definitely have him ahead of no-power utility wannabe's like Triantos and Ramirez. The prospect of a true hit/contact/power combo guy is super exciting, so I want to keep him and value him until/unless he proves otherwise. A true-blue middle-of-order power bat who's a true hitter and has good pitch recognition, that kind of guy is invaluable. Especially if he's young, hungry, and has years of club-control contract. I saw him when I was in Mesa last month. He just looked taller than most of the guys in his group. He looked fit to me, first glimpse did not suggest overweight in the least. In NBA and NFL, guys work like crazy to stay fit and fast; in college football and basketball guys often improve their condition lots after freshman year. I'm optimistic that he'll stay in good shape and be a really fit, well-built hitter who's just fine in the outfield. Hitting pro pitching for power is hard, way harder then HR-derby where you can leg-kick all you want. Will he actually be able to hit pro pitches often enough to hit HR's? Only time will tell. Lot of seemingly promising power hitters K like mad once in the minors, so we'll see. But yeah, hoping that he ends up just a stud hitter. Not sure we'll see much of him this year. Maybe some late-season Myrtle. But guessing not much. Next season when he's in full-season all year, guessing that will be more revealing than this. Do we have any info on the switch-hitting stuff? Like, which is scouted as his better, more natural side? Hitting is so hard; getting a good power hitter with 2nd-round bonus is kinda long odds to start. Getting basically **two** good power hitters, both lefty and righty, is way more remotely unlikely. Sure, I'd love that. But I think the odds that you're going to get a good switch from both sides is kinda remote. I'm guessing that sooner or later, it will be one or the other. But I have no idea which one, does anybody think they know or have a guess? I'll obviously guess lefty, since much larger platoon role that way, so *IF* I'm only going to be good at one, I'd probably prioritize hitting lefty. Man, would it be sweet if the Cubs really clicked with Harshorn and he emerged as a serious guy.

No question that last year was a huge disappointment for Triantos. His numbers were terrible, .684 OPS for Iowa stinks. Slugging .369 for Iowa, really bad. The question is whether future will mirror how bad he was last year. If he's always soft contact; who rarely pulls or drives for much power; who just isn't strong enough or have bat speed or handle breaking pitches enough to hit, he's bust. Pretty plausible that he's just never going to hit enough to make it work. And while he's still young, it's not like he's going to grow a bunch physically. Probably is what he's going to be physically. I'm still guardedly hopeful, myself. 1st, he started off hurt, and got into a big slump. Bad health often leads to bad results and bad habits. May not reflects what he can be if healthy. 2nd, guys are always trying to figure things out and adapting. When he seemed to be hitting OK and had a good 2024, he may not have felt need to adjust. But failure prompts adjustments, and he may have made some? Think he may be healthier, a little stronger, adjusted some, maybe more pull-appreciative, maybe more chase-avoidant? Hoping last year was an injury-triggered anomoly, and he'll look good this year? I don't think he's played that much CF yet. Optimistic that his outfielding will improve? I hope Shaw ends hitting, and Nico has a good year and extends. With Nico back and Shaw as good Zobrist, it's hard to see role for Triantos. But fair chance that either Nice walks or else Shaw gets traded or busts. That could open up role for Triantos to be 3B/2B/CF utility. If he's a bad hitter, who wants him. But if he can emerge as a pretty good hitter, and a decent fielder, there is value in utility antiawful. We've had Brujan, I don't want that again. Think there's still a chance that Triantos might break out as a hitter, and become good enough to be a valuable long-term utility player for the Cubs.

No idea on these guys. Personally I'd rank Wing a little higher, just because I don't have any information that limits his ceiling. Lots of space to mature and develop, and sometimes the "great athlete" guys tend towards being able to develop control. Birdsell wasn't a sure-thing high-ceiling, with the surgery I'd push him back some. But hopefully he'll recover 100%, and be a genuine big-league prospect again. Mathis, hard to guess whether he was every healthy last year, or whether what little we saw of him reflects his future. Would love to see him get a reset this year, be 100% healthy, have kinda adjusted from low-level college to being in the pros with pro-stuff pitchers, and be a good hitter. But who knows? Cepeda is another who-knows. Often high-K contact challenged guys just always have it hard, and every promotion is hard. Had he figured something out late last year? Or was that a hot streak, and he's due to probably start off with a cold streak? Would sure love for him to emerge as being legit. Sanders also who-knows. As a strike-thrower, my theory is those guys sometimes are best able to use pitch-lab type stuff to adjust their stuff, to optimize velocity, to tweak or add new pitches. He sometimes seemed pretty good on his good days, so I'm not sure his stuff is that badly lacking? Locate a little better, add some more velo, tweak your offspead, and maybe he'll take another step forward. Coming back to Iowa will also be his first time repeating a level. I'm hoping to see some success from all of the non-Birdsell guys in this group. Kinda hoping that the Cubs player development system is better than it's ever been, and that a higher % of Cubs prospects will show healthy development than has ever proven true in past Cubs systems. Thanks for the writeups, Jason!

Wow, crazy move for Myrtle. Will be interesting to see what impact that has.

Yeah, super interested to see if Cabada can be a true-blue hitter, I'm high on him too. Also really interested in Southisene. I think your Kepley analogy is very good. I think it's quite interesting that Kantro spent high picks and $$$ in back-to-back drafts on contact/speed/defense/no-power guys in back-to-back drafts in those two guys. Jason, I'm agnostic on the Southisene HR bit. For a guy with ~500 AB, 5HR is worth 10 points in BA/OBP, and ~40 points in slug. So yeah, a variance in 5HR is worth ~50 OPS points. A lot! So getting 5 HR versus none, that's significant for sure. The flip is whether he could hit the ball hard and get lots of line-drive doubles and triples in addition to singles, WITHOUT trying to elevate for HR? Like, could he hit .280 just with in-the-park contact? He didn't last year, composite, but he did second half. I'm rambling here, but everybody now loves Nico and thinks he's a star and worth 5-6 WAR. All with 7 HR and a .739 OPS. But Nico walked only 39 times in 649 PA. What if Southisene was otherwise Nico in BABIP and doubles/triples, but with two adjustments: Nico minus 5 HR, but plus 40 walks? Seems to me that the extra 40 walks would make up for the lost HR? Obviously more of Nico's value is with his baserunning and defense, but I think there's a scenario where Southisene might both steal bases and defend at a very high level. A question, though, is whether he'd still be able to draw walks against big-league pitchers, if they had no fear of HR? And could he still get hits vs big-league pitchers, if they're knocking the bat out of his hands, and outfielders are pinching him like Madrigal? Southisene isn't big, and his levers are obviously short; but I'm not sure he can't get strong enough to hit the ball variably hard? Sure hoping so. This season might tell a lot. But yeah, would sure be fun if he got a handful of HR's, a bunch of double-triples, and kept getting on base at a phenomenal pace.

Yes, thanks for these writeups. Fun to read and to think about these prospects again. With the Cubs prospects supply approaching very low ebb, it's so crucial for the development process to get some real development from guys who are not top prospects. We're kinda used to living off a lot of highly drafted prospects (all of the 2015 guys were top-10 type picks plus $30-million Soler), or serious trades (PCA, Caissie, Alcantara, Brown). I'm not expecting any top-15 picks in the years ahead, nor any serious trade-deadline-sell deals that add serious prospects in. So really important to be able to get good major leaguers from our own draft picks; from picks outside of round one; and from our IFA work. Would be so cool to get some conversions on some of the 16-20 types. Southisene does get stronger and drives a decent share of doubles and triples, and is not overpowered in A+ or AA. I'm not expecting him to hit HR's, but if he traded Nico's handful of HR's for a lot more walks, you could get a really good player. Cabada, what if he does get somewhat stronger and he's just a true-blue hitter with enough strength and leverage to hit 15+ HR's? What if Florentino did add several more MPH; could get at least into or a little above the Shota/Taillon velocity world, with control; somehow makes some tweaks to improve his fastball spin/ shape; but does sustain a killer slider? Wouldn't it be cool for a control-artist with a putaway pitch make it work? What if Zombro does get some more velo from Reid, and his stuff is just fine? What if Erian settles in at AA, has a fully-healthy-all-year season, and more command and consistency come with experience at Knoxville? During the Cardinals long stretch of winning, it seemed like they had a way of developing guys who were 5-tool top-100 prospects, but somehow creating a bunch of capable support-players and next-man-up. Could be so fun if the Cubs could create some good-value assets from the Reids and Cabadas and Southisenes and Florentinos of the world. Hoping hoping hoping!

While Rojas's hitting has been good early, his throwing has been awful. I watched pieces of a couple of the games, and I saw three awful throws, Az Phil mentioned that he actually had a 4th bad throw too. Has he always been Burl Callaway, or is this something new? Hopefully something fluky that will get worked out. Seems like he didn't extend his arm at all on his throws. The one throw was up the 1B line into the baserunner's path, and he got poor Jonathon Long's elbow ripped off. Long was writhing in pain, I hope it won't be real serious, but I won't be surprised if Rojas will cost Long's elbow pretty dearly.

That's really interesting observation. Tweaks like that can make a big difference.

Oh, I'm sure they like Moises' bat, not questioning that at all. I'm just saying that Cubs wanted Cabrera (younger, big-arm, 3 years of club-control) more than Framber Valdez at his age and price. Cubs wanted Cabrera. Marlins want Caissie, not Moises. Trade done. Guessing that if Marlins had said they'd only trade Cabrera for Moises instead, the Cubs would have traded Moises instead. I don't think the trade really says anything about how much the Cubs liked Moises versus Caissie. One can argue on other grounds which you think they may have preferred. But I don't think the trade says anything at all about it. Marlins wanted Caissie, so Cubs gave them Caissie. Nothing more complicated than that.

I think it was 100% Cubs wanting Cabrera and Marlins wanting Caissie. I don't think it says anything, 0%, about how the Cubs ranked Caissie versus Moises.

Interesting perspective from Hottovy. We'll see, sometimes things take time. And sometimes some failure is a good motivator for making changes that can help. I wonder if there has been any consideration to dropping his arm slot a few degrees, and whether that might benefit some pitch shape, fastball included? With Taillon, Shota, and Boyd all expiring, I admit I kinda like the concept of Brown continuing to try to develop at Iowa, and staying in the rotation consideration. We don't know who's going to emerge. The crazy optimist in me is imagining a scene where Horton and Wiggins both emerge as high-end-stuff starters, Cabrera be solid; and then between Brown, Assad, and Wicks, maybe you could maybe tweak one (or more) of those guys into capable back-end starters. Getting some development so that Brown and/or Wicks could be functional starters would be very helpful.

Agree, I'd assume Az.

Agree, Ramirez seems high to me. I'm guessing Kiley likes Ramirez more than some of us, and sees some potential growth in power, maybe? To me, he seems to project as a singles-hitting 2b/3B utility guy. But if Kiley projects him to 8-14 HR-type power, then maybe you could have a good starter? Will be interesting if he can add some HR's and doubles at Iowa. Would be really fun if he could. I wonder if "prospect fatigue" maybe gets overused as an excuse? Easy to dismiss down-ranking Alcantara as "oh, it's just prospect fatigue." But maybe he's down-ranked because contact problems with his long swing are not perceived as correctible, by Kiley?

I'd guess no? Cabada would be more possible, since he's a kinda balanced, controlled hitter, more likely to be able to stay competitive. Tomas definitely not; he hit .186 in the DSL, with 42K/113AB/1HR. With contact challenges like that, I think one step to Mesa will be challenging enough. He'll need some patience.

I'm hoping that Little is not the first to get de-rostered. I'm hoping that with another year since his injury, that his velocity will be back (or maybe better) than last year, maybe even faster than 2024. Obviously he's never going to be a control artist. But his K-stuff and anti-HR groundball profile looked so good, I'd hate to give up this quickly. Thinking there are enough other guys to de-roster ahead of him. Some guys I'd de-roster ahead of Little: Justin Dean Ben Cowles Gavin Hollowell Ethan Roberts Ryan Rolison I'm guessing 1 or 2 will end up getting derostered. But I'm hoping that Little isn't, and that he develops back into a really interesting lefty relief option.

That would be really nice to click on one (or more) of the 11-20 picks. Bullpen excellence is so valuable, would be super cool if Williams clicked. Or Spencer. Or Knapp, all of those three are 24 (Williams) or 25.

Yeah, two issues. One is how guys might stack on a farm-ranking next year, the other is how the guy might eventually produce. Southisene might become an interesting player eventually, but he's certainly not going to factor on any ranking lists or anything. As long-term prospects, agree that Hartshorn, Wing, and Cabada might become very valuable guys eventually. Hartshorn might end up becoming really good power/contact hitter. But I don't imagine those three are going to factor much into media rankings? Guys playing rookie-ball in Mesa don't fly into top-100's. I don't think Lumpuy will get anywhere, hope I'm wrong. But that K-rate against bad low-A pitching, that's probably prohibitive. One forgotten guy who I still have hopes for is Triantos. I think he might raise his status a little still, into a possible big-league super-utility guy. Utility prospect will never approach top-100 again, nor factor in whether the Cubs system can rank up into top-20. But I do think he might boost his hitting this year. He was variably hurt again last season; I'm hoping coming in fully healthy might help, and simple reversion-to-mean might help. Sometimes failure is drives some new adjustments. Maybe he's just hit his ceiling, which isn't enough. But I'm hoping that he'll bump his power game and pull-in-air a bit. Bump his plate discipline and boost his walks some. Bump up to a .300/.350/.450 Iowa-level guy, or better. An .800-ish Iowa hitter is nothing special. But in a world where Hoerner might walk or Shaw might get traded for good value after the season, perhaps next year Triantos might look ready to become a useful super-utility guy.

Some of this discussion reflects how super-significant Conrad will be. If he explodes, and kinda comes out of the season as a strong top-100 guy, maybe a top-50, in a sense that could kind of replace the Caissie-Moises type guys we've had in recent top-100's. But if Conrad struggles, it could be really hard to backfill.

Who might be some guys you might imagine as candidates to jump in value? Including some guys who aren't going to jump into "star" level, but who might just improve into decent chance to be a useful major leaguer? Wiggins and Alcantara obviously. Wiggins could be star, and if healthy Alcantara could somehow sustain or improve on his 2nd-half hitting, he's still got a chance to become a good starter, maybe even for us. Southisene. Obviously no power => no star. But 2nd half, had a >,450 OBP, .800-ish OPS, 24/4 SB/CS, >1 BB/K, and hit up near .300. That was crummy A- pitching,, so he might get devoured by South Bend level pitching. But a lot of boys get stronger at age 20; maybe his bat speed and power will grow a little bit, and he'll add some doubles and triples? I think his defense was supposed to be good? Would love to see a super OBP/SB guy. Mathis: Was bad last year, and K'd too much;, but was first year and was variably hurt. What if he shows up healthy, and actually shows a really good power bat? Would love to see his bat look good. Kepley. I don't think most posters like him much. I kinda see Kepley and Southisene as similar guys, short BA/BB OBP guys who steal a lot, and are hopefully both really good defensively. Kepley's a little older and stronger, scouts suggest he's got some anti-awful exit-velo and may hit some XBH. But yeah, what if he can just carry the >.280BA, >.380 slug, and >.400 OBP right up through South Bend and into Knoxville? .400-OBP guys with lots of steals and great defense, that could be a valuable guy. Rojas obviously wildcard. Was awful at Knox, but what if with a fresh start, some physical improvement, and some skills improvements, what if he could kinda bring his South Bend hitting up to Knoxville? Neely: what if velocity was back, health was back, and he found some control, and looked Iowa dominant again? Won't help the prospect rankings, because if so he'll just graduate. But would be fun to see his actual big-league value pop. Erian Rodriguez. Not mentioned often, but has a pretty good arm, and may still have a little fill-out physical projection left? What if his curve and change got more consistent, so that his K-rate could jump? Could be a guy who's rated much higher after the season than he is now? Super-longshots: Florentino, Gray, Mule. Florentino, slim guy without big velo, so hasn't gotten much scouting buzz. But sometimes skinny guys at 20 fill out and get stronger, and maybe he's still got some more velocity in him? *IF* suddenly he could tweak his fastball and get both more velo AND more movement, who knows? Athletic command pitchers with deception can just be good pitchers, who knows? Lets get lucky. Mule, another year from surgery, maybe with some physical maturation he can get his velocity back? More healthy, more fastball, maybe he can throw some strikes and improve fast? Drew Gray, injured is injured, wild is wild, so chances are probably remote. But what if he was and stayed healthy for a while, maybe a healthy Gray could jack up the stuff, and might repeat his delivery enough to locate better and finally emerge as a real prospect? I'm also kinda Jerzembeck interested. What if he's actually healthy, and actually is a pretty good pitcher with good stuff?

Should probably drop near 30th by end of season, no? Moises will graduate; probably Wiggins will either graduate or bust; and likewise Alcantara should either graduate or bust. Ranking could be *really* low. But as Kiley mentions, if guys are productively graduating and become good contributors, or else are getting traded for good value (Alcantara, perhap?), that doesn't reflect poorly on the D+D. But yeah, it sure would be nice to see some breakouts to up value. Conrad, lets go!

Agree. Getting close enough to average to become a #2 catcher doesn't seem out of reach. Like the >20HR thing, not safe to happen; but neither is out of reach.

Good comp. Naylor has averaged 22 HR over the last 4 years.

Yes, that was a succinct capture (beyond just the piece I pasted.) The "above-average raw power" is one hinge. "raw" and "in-game" power aren't the same. A groundball oppo-hitter, will he pull-in-air often enough to actually hit volume HR's? >20 HR contact hitter (with walks) is a value DH; 12-HR hitting into lot of DP's not? 2nd hinge is the difference between 3rd vs 2nd catcher. 2nd catcher catches a lot; 3rd doesn't.

The variance in rankings is a reminder of how different orgs can value guys somewhat differently. Cubs pitching thinks Cabrera has this huge ceiling; does anybody else see him that way, or more a guy with some good stuff but no control and a bad fastball? Marlins seem to love Caissie; guessing some orgs don't. Heh heh, maybe out there somewhere there's an org who loves Alcantara like Law does, and would value him a lot in a trade? Or, maybe if he was part of an organization, the other scouts would talk him down from Alcantara! Who knows. I admit I hope Cubs end up with some decent backup OF, and Kevin goes back to Iowa again. Had the hernia last year, I wonder if that wasn't a factor for a while and he played through it? We can say 8th year pro, but he was 16 when he started, Covid, injuries, took him 4 years to reach Myrtle. So he's really had 4 years above rookie, which normally for good players is plenty. But maybe more to learn and figure out when you're so tall, and perhaps when your English isn't very good so coaching may be slower to click? He's obviously been an extreme groundball guy. MLB Cubs were good at pull-in-air, but Kevin hasn't achieved that yet. But what if somehow he could get better at pull-in air, and he started hitting more in-game HR's, to match his BP power? Probably not: after 4 years in full-season, and having such a tall, long swing, he's probably just never going to be a good big-league hitter with big-league HR volume. But just in the off chance that he maybe could figure out how to pull the ball in the air over the left-field fence more frequently, I support one more developmental lots-of-AB-in-Iowa opportunity. Sometimes improbable things work for organizations that have success. (WS Cubs, two years earlier what would the odds have been that Hendricks and Arrieta would both be great? Sometimes, getting lucky with some unusual development happens). I'd just like to see Kevin get one more chance at regular AB's, and see if he can crank up his HR output, which would crank up all of his BA/OBP/slugging/OPS numbers, and could make him look like a value starter.