craig

Sands and Rivero.

On Underwood, we know he can throw hard. But the comments about his "two swing-and-miss offspeed pitches, his changeup can be very good" is what caught my attention. What some of the BA-type reports have suggested that each of his pitches looked good at times, but he rarely if ever had them all working at the same time. My friend who saw him get hammered one game said the scouts he was sitting with said he was telegraphing which pitch was coming. (Obviously that wasn't true subsequently.) I think the "swing-and-miss" pitches also haven't been true for long, since he hasn't been a serious K-guy. But 84K/101IP is decent, and way better than the 27K/54IP in Boise. Work in progress, we'll see. But with his velocity, if his curve and change can both be quality swing-and-miss pitches, he could be really good. On Stinnett, I know he hasn't pitched for long. But I'm not sure "raw" is how Derek Johnson sees him. I think they view his delivery and repeatability to actually be pretty advanced, and see him as something of a fast-mover. I guess it would be the change that's raw, even if fastball/slider are in pretty good shape.

Man, I've got to say our system is in nice shape when we're at #14, and we've got guys like this left to argue about. *I was listening to a podcast with Chris Crawford (??) of BP. He loves Sands, and thought he was 1st-roundish guy. He's not going to make our top-15? Nice. *Eloy we'll see, but he's a big strong guy, and may become another Soler physically. And he's still on the bubble to make our top-15? Nice. *Caratini is a nice, switch-hitting catcher who may hit and may have reasonable power? And he's not going to make our top-15? Nice. *For whatever his faults, Vogelbach is a a pretty interesting hitter, and may have some power eventually. Many scouts still like his bat, but most of us aren't going to vote him into our top-15. Nice. *Rivero is fast, has a killer slider, and has been K'ing the world. But he can't crack our top-15. Nice. *Skulina had a bad knee, but now he's supposedly healthy and throwing nasty 92-95 again, but he's not even on our list and not even in top-20 discussion. Nice *Etc. Man we've got it good these days as prospect watchers.

I voted Rivero/Sands, but totally get Jiminez, Caratini, and Zagunis. I don't get Vogelbach, though. I'm sure hoping this is a breakout year for him, and it may be. But a platoon-DH-contact hitter, with middling power, I don't see a ton of upside or trade value there. If some serious game-power breaks out, maybe then he can work his way back in to my top 20. I've been a Rivero voter and supporter, but I admit I have my questions there. Why doesn't he get more buzz outside of Cub-fan-dom? Or even inside the org? I'd anticipated that he'd get a pretty serious look this camp, but that hasn't seemed true at all. Wonder if there's something they don't like that I'm not seeing? Or maybe it's just that he's so wild, with little reason to expect that to change at his age. I'd have thought a guy like that would have been really working to come to camp sharp and impressive, but in his one inning he seemed like the wildest guy in Arizona. Will be interesting to see how he does once the season starts. Hopefully he gets in a groove and his control looks improved.

With Skulina apparently healthy and throwing well, I wonder if the Cubs may actually consider just shooting him up to AA, where I don't think they really have 5 rotation prospects? Amazing how many Tennessee/Daytona starts were absorbed by guys who were pretty much non-prospects even at the time. *Last year's AA roster had the following rotation starts: Loosen 19 Rhee 16 Figueroa 11 Gardner 10 Pena 6 Antigua 4 Julio Rodriguez 3 *Daytona: Scott 26 Pena 19 Rosario 16 Dorris 11 Wang 11 Amlung 9 Wells 5 Kirk 1 Maybe Stinnett will still hold back at South Bend for a while, beats me.

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/113091452/mlb-pipeline-checks-in-from-cubs-camp Callis: McLeod

Thanks, cal, for AzPhil link. He had some other days of listed starters. As you said, no surprises. *Steele hurt his ankle in camp, so he's going to fall behind. Given that he was questionable to start with, I expect that will seal it and he'll stay back in XST. *Pineyro is healthy enough to be pitching "starter" innings. *Paniagua, no surprise, pitched a 1-inning outing, suggesting he's tracking for relief. *Phil said that Underwood started but got pulled after one inning, unknown why. *Norwood working like a starter, I'd wondered if he'd be an XST or perhaps a power-relief guy. Glad he's still with the starters. *Leal working like a starter. I'd wondered if he'd be a lesser prospect and be filtered out. *Skulina worked like a starter, another guy I'd though might be slid to relief. May still, but still in the pool. Mostly all unsurprising stuff, so for the moment still seems consistent with: South Bend options: Sands, Clifton, Null, Conway, Norwood, Leal (Stinnett) Myrtle: Stinnett, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, Torrez, Skulina, Martinez Tennessee options: Zastryzny, Pineyro, Johnson, Edwards, ??? *With Johnson and Edwards, I wonder if either or both will start at Tennessee? *Tennessee could have some roster-filler type guys, or not-so-interesting types. But A- and A+ both look really interesting. *I'm expecting Stinnett to start at Myrtle Beach. And Sands to start full-season. *Phil had very few and zero unexpected "unable to participate" guys listed on his roster. But, not sure that means he knows. There may be variable guys who aren't healthy who he doesn't know about (yet). And with 2+ more weeks of camp, there are additional opportunities for guys to twist an ankle or come down with a sore elbow before the season actually begins. Cubs are very cautious with injuries, so seems likely there will be some "expected" guys who aren't ready to break camp with the full season rosters. *I think about the prospects I view as younger and more interesting. But often, they end up starting some guys who are more experienced and perhaps not so high-ceiling. So it wouldn't shock me at all if one or more from the James Ferris, Ryan Thorpe, Ryan Williams group, for example, ended up starting at South Bend or Myrtle Beach.

I think I'll be voting Rivero and Sands for my next few votes, until one of them "wins" and comes off the board.

I've got Vogelbach at 21, although arguably that's still too high. Behind Jiminez/Sands/Steele/Cease/Zagunis/Caratini/Daury Torrez, but still ahead of guys like Zastryzny, Blackburn, Clifton, Hannemann, Conway, Mitchell, Baez, Paniagua, Rademacher. Vogelbach is a nice, disciplined W/K hitter. Might end up playing in Japan or playing in some Indy league for a long time. But hitting .268 without serious HR's in A-ball probably doesnt project to getting him a long-term big-league 1B/DH job. This is the year for him. Can't blame anything on being young; or adapting to full-season; or "working on something"; or to Florida State League. Hit 24 HR's while keeping the rest of his profile, he's on the map. But another 16 HR summer and he's fading fast.

Personally I'm surprised to see Vogelbach getting support this early. he's still a long ways off for me. Hope I'm wrong. This year is really a put-up-or-get-forgotten type of year, probably. He's been getting along in prospect rankings based on his hitting, even though he hasn't really hit all that much for the past two seasons. To make it as a DH/1B, you better be really good offensively. Hitting teens-HR's per year in A-ball doesn't quite come close to doing it for me. A lot of evaluators who projected his HS power favorably still think it's there and still project HR's, and others who have watched BP have said he's got plenty of power. But somehow he's got to boost his in-game HR output to make it, given his defensive status. .787 and .824 OPS's the last two years, that just doesn't really seem like top-15 production for a DH/1B who wasn't really all that young for his league. He better boost that a lot this year or I'm guessing his believers will increasingly lose interest.

Easy one for me, real separation after these two. Stinnett and Rivero. I'm with hairy duck, Rivero has a lot to like. A putaway killer slider, and he's shown it's a killer pitch all the way through AAA. Really fast fastball, so getting to 2-strike counts won't be that rare for him. His stuff is going to work in the majors. Got a chance to be a very good reliever, which are invaluable. In prospect rankings, he's the victim of anti-reliever bias, and anti-age bias. Stinnett has a chance to be a really good starter. A possible control artist with really good slider and strong fastball, with the chance to be durable. Both of these guys have chances to be very, very valuable and effective major leaguers who contribute to a lot of wins.

Agree that Sands and Steels are key. Sands will be 20 when the season opens. Steele turns 20 this summer, and is less experienced pitching. Wouldn't surprise if Sands made South Bend but Steele didn't. I'll be pretty disappointed if we see roster-fill guys like Pena, Scott, or Rosario starting in A-ball. I pretty much figure the full KC rotation will all move up (Underwood, Tseng, Blackburn, Torrez, Martinez) unless there is somebody else they WANT to see at Myrtle. Stinnett or Skulina, that might be true, so they might need to hold somebody back or piggy-back. But I don't think they'll do that on account of Scott, Pena, or Rosario. AA will be really thin, as it was last summer and as was true at Daytona. Well, I suppose unless they start BOTH Edwards and Johnson there. One long-shot for AA is Michael Jensen. He was pretty good at Peora three years ago, finishing very strongly; and finished pretty strong in rehab year at Daytona last summer. Being two years off of surgery now, I'd be a lot more interested in him than guys like Scott or Pena, or Pineyro, at AA. I'll be surprised if Wild Black is still starting again. But, given the lack of competition for AA rotation, maybe they'll figure he giving him the innings is still best developmentally.

South Bend: Conway, Null, Clifton, Sands, Steele. Q's: *Will Stinnett be perhaps left behind? Martinez? *Derek Johnson loves Null, so he's expected to start. Will Null affirm that in spring and make the rotation? Or will he blah-out and lose his spot? *Will both Sands and Steele look good enough to make this step? Or will one or perhaps both struggle enough to get left behind? *Will anybody from the Norwood/Brink/Maples/Santana/Garner/Thorpe/Farris/Wilson crowd look sharp and win a spot? Myrtle: Stinnett, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, and Torrez *If Stinnett doesn't make it, might Martinez or Skulina compete? *Skulina seems a forgotten man, but he was somewhat hurt last year. Sometimes a new year and new health can lead to new results. Will the long-lost Trey Masek appear in professional baseball? Heh heh, remember at draft how optimistic some of us were with Tyler Skulina, Trey Masek, and Scott Frazier? Tennessee: Zastryzny. Will either Johnson or Edwards return to Tennessee? Will Corey Black, and if so in rotation again? Maybe they'll just push Skulina up and start him, and tell him to sink or swim?

I think Madison and Johnson are thinking Myrtle Beach for Stinnett. But, guys need to show up in camp and look fine, so some control issues can set that back. Man, we need to have a thread with the projected rotations at each level, eh? Myrtle: Stinnett, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, and Torrez *If Stinnett doesn't make it, Martinez or Skulina seem best guesses, or some roster filler. South Bend: Conway, Null, Clifton, Sands, Steele. *Martinez could stay behind. Or somebody from the Norwood/Brink/Maples/Santana/Garner/Thorpe/Farris/Wilson crowd. *Perhaps even the long-lost Trey Masek will appear in the professional baseball! Heh heh, remember at draft how optimistic some of us were with Tyler Skulina, Trey Masek, and Scott Frazier

I voted Tseng, but I really like Stinnett too. I'll have Stinnett ahead of Underwood, I think. Big, strong guy. Excellent stuff, very good movement on his fastball, throws hard, and really good command with his fastball. Very good slider. The keys for him, I think, will be: 1. how his change develops. 2. How consistently fine his command can be. Derek Johnson is a big believer that he's going to really be a good control artist, but again that's a lot easier to project than to actually prove true. A lot easier to analogize to Hendricks or Maddux than to actually have that level of control pretty consistently. 3. How his cutter develops. He's got good stuff and movement. If he can spot fastball, slider, and cutter, those are three movement variations that can help success against both lefties and righties, and can come out of the hand and be hard for hitters to differentiate. Will be interesting to see how well Stinnett handles Myrtle Beach, and how quickly they bump him up to AA this summer. Underwood threw harder than the other guys last year. Not sure how much harder than Stinnett. He showed some really good progress over the year, and improved consistency in a way. At the same time, my game recall is that he was still somewhat inconsistent. One day a good bunch of K's; the next very few. One day high groundouts, the game now many at all. That may be a good thing; he's got varying tools and can win in different ways. Some of the media reports have been positive that his curveball is sometimes pretty nice, and on occasion his change is pretty nice too. If he can get consistency, we might have a really good pitcher. A hesitation on my part for him are the high HR's. 10HR's in 100 innings would be OK in majors, but that's pretty high in low-A. My sense is that each of his pitches is currently somewhat inconsistent, and also that sometimes his delivery telegraphs what's coming. Hopefully with time and coaching and experience, he'll smooth that, and gain consistency and command of all his pitches. Johnson, Tseng, Stinnett, and Underwood, those are some very good prospects. Let's hope that they all stay healthy, and several (all?) of them progress favorably this summer.

Tseng. 6:1 K/BB plays very well. Location/command. Consistency. Underrated stuff. Good curve, good change, good slider. Commands everything. Good delivery so that hitters can't read what's coming. Four-pitch repertoire gives him enough variety so that he can work different hitters in different ways, and work different games in different ways. (If the curve is off, he's not cooked because he's got other weapons to use.) I'm thinking Hendricks command but can cruise with 2-3 more mph? Tseng's velocity may be somewhat underrated. I think he threw his fastball slower than he could, or than he will in future. Part of Derek Johnson's development program is to set a velocity range where a guy can consistently throw strikes within that range, without stressing the arm. The Cubs think throwing harder puts more stress on the arm; compromises control; and compromises change-of-speed strategies. Restraining the velocity is especially a priority for new guys. So, I think that Tseng may later throw harder than he did this past year. Either because he really gets stronger physically. Or simply because when he's a little older they'll be more confident that he can throw harder with control and with a repeatable delivery.

I voted Johnson, but I totally get the concerns and the advocacy for others. To my view this was the first time he's really had control problems. He hadn't the previous year or during his college draft year I don't think? His stuff was really good in AA already. So I think that *if* there was a correctible reason for the wildness, and *if* he can improve that significantly, I think he could come on fast. When a guy already has 90 successful innings in AA (2.54 ERA), he may not be that far away. His "ceiling" seems plenty high, his stuff is very good. Fastball movement, velocity, slider, and the cutter are all quite good. So if he could emerge with the consistency/command, I don't see much reason why he couldn't be a very solid rotation guy. Being two levels ahead of Tseng and Underwood also means less time within which to get injured prior to big-league contribution. I'm hoping that after coming back from injury, that his delivery was a little messed up, so he was wild. But that if he can come back fine and healthy this spring, and go through regular camp with everybody else and start on schedule, that perhaps the control will show up a lot better. If so, you might have a guy who is really close, if they needed somebody. Stuff-wise, I think his ceiling is really pretty good. Maybe Underwood is a little higher, I understand that view. But it's not like Johnson is a soft-tossing back-of-rotation guy or anything like that. He's got plenty of stuff and velocity.

He makes CJ Edwards look kind of chunky!

Almora. Excellent defender, good contact gift, bat speed to handle big-league velocity, good size and excellent power potential. Doesn't have star-projection offensively, but we're talking #8 prospect here. His potential success is especially significant because currently he's unique in the system as a legit defensive CF. There are various guys who might end up filling LF (Schwarber, Bryant, McKinney, Fowler, etc...); 3B (Bryant, Baez, Castro, Russell....); SS (Castro, Russell, Baez, Torres...); and 2B. But there don't seem to be a lot of current in-system alternatives in CF. So if Almora would emerge as a legit solid-average starter in center, that would be very helpful. Obviously the value of having him succeed doesn't impact his odds of doing so, but there seems to be more at stake on whether he succeeds or fails than with some of the other guys in this neighborhood. I know this will sound lame, but I admit to being influenced by what other people think. Especially the Cubs scouting/farm departments themselves. There seem to be a lot of intelligent analysts and scouts who still rank Almora within the top 6 prospects within the system, and even within the top 100 prospects in baseball. If there was some obvious talent-deficiency which will always make him unable to hit, I'd think the Cubs and more of the scouts would have noticed by now. So, Occam's Razor suggests that if a lot of smart observers still think he's got a reasonable chance to hit, that his chance of being a reasonable hitter is at least somewhat better than zero. My concerns go well beyond the low-walk thing, as problematic as that is. 1. I'm concerned that may be a manifestation of fundamental talent-deficiency in being able to process pitch movement and handle breaking stuff. If you're going to be off-balance every time a pitcher throws something other than a fastball, and you can't even punish the hanging breaking balls, it's going to be bad. If you don't have the vision/brain for good pitch-recognition etc., I don't think that's an acquirable skill. If he's failing because he doesn't have that, practice and experience won't cure the disease. I think pitch recognition and fear of breaking balls may also contribute to why the walk rate is so horrible. 2. The ridiculous leg-kick doesn't help. How do you keep good balance to enable efficient weight-transfer to drive the ball with that leg kick? Yuck. I'm hoping that's something mechanical that can be adjusted, reduced, to his future advantage. 3. I don't know how adjustable this factor is. But Almora has always been heavily groundball-oriented. Is that something so ingrained in the swing-plane that if a guy's stroke mechanics don't have lift, they can't tweak that? If so, Almora may be cooked. 4. Not sure how coachable or correctible this is either. But can an up-the-middle/opposite-field guy make some adjustments to use the whole field including his pull field? My perception (Cubs have way better data) is that Almora usually went center/right, but rarely used left. Obviously most of his contact was groundouts; but my perception is that if you marked where a normal SS usually starts out, there were 3 groundouts to the RF side of the initial SS position for every groundout to the 3B side of the initial SS position. Can he better learn to pull the ball, and perhaps with more lift? Beats me, but I'm hoping.

McKinney is winning by a couple of votes. If that's still true when Tim gets around to it, give McKinney 6, Torres 7, and lets get on to 8, 9, and 10. :) On McKinney, my understanding is that the Cubs feel he can easily be in the 12-17 HR range. Can he be in the 17-25 range?

As I noted in an earlier point, I think the power question with McKinney is central to how we project him. You mention "the lack of power"; I wonder how lacking that is projection wise? Heh heh, reference to Aoki and Markakis is interesting, if both are to represent power-deficient outfielders who were still variably useful. Aoki is seriously power-deficient; he's never exceeded 10 HR in a season, and last year hit only one. That is power-lacking in a way totally different from Markakis. If McKinney is power-deficient only to the degree that Markakis was, I think that's more reason to support him than to downgrade him. Markakis hit 16-23 HR per year during his first four seasons. Over his first six seasons, he OPS'd below .799 in only one of them, including slugging .489 and .491 during his 2nd and 3rd years. To my view, if McKinney has Aoki power, hes way down the list for me. But if he's the disciplined balanced professional hitter that the scouts say of him, with the kind of power Markakis had early on before injuries, I'd have him higher than #6, not lower. That's not a problem at all, for me. The other point as always is that HR's are a function of strength during contact, but also how often you hit it on the nose. If he's just an excellent hit-it-on-the-nose hitter, he doesn't need Baez power to hit 15+ HR.

If you're K-ing everybody like Rivero, won't be a lot of hits. When you're K'ing a lot like Edwards, and don't allow any over-the-wall hits, you also won't allow many hits. Over-the-wall hits are hits too. The worst kind.

How do you mean hits don't matter? His H, HR and K numbers say that his stuff is somehow very hard to square up. Higher level hitters will of course be better at it, but there's no reason to think his advantage relative to other pitchers will disappear. I like your love of Rivero but I don't think Edwards should be brought down to the level of a 27 year old for-sure reliever whose numbers in fewer US innings are worse. Rivero's K-rate is pretty stunning, so his stuff seems especially hard to square up. He's got a chance to be very good, in the pen. My concern there is the control, obviously. I think the point is valid, that Rivero's K-rate is more stunning, dominant at a higher level; given that Edwards is likely to end in relief anyway, it's not obvious that he'll be as good or better in relief than will be Rivero. You'll get the same 6 years of club control either way. I agree the issue of the HR's is central to Edwards. Obviously the rate has been so low that it won't sustain against big leaguers. But if it's real, the result of late motion on the fastball, that may translate well into the majors. We'll see. For both, control is very much in question. Edwards was erratic this year, and isn't a control ace. Rivero has always seemed kinda wild. Not sure whether either will improve, or how their current level of inconsistency will play against major-league bats if they don't improve. Some of the scouts who love edwards seem to think his delivery mechanics are simple enough and repeatable enough so that he will perhaps be able to have rather good control. We'll see.

Torres, McKinney, Almora, Underwood, etc., a lot to still like here. Arguments for any of them, and each has a chance to become a really valuable contributor. I think I'll just go Torres here. Why not, hoping he'll become a top-notch defender who's a good all-around hitter and ends up with 15-HR power so that power isn't a liability. Castro was one of the best offensive SS's in baseball with 14 HR's. If Torres can have similar power, with a lot more walks/OBP, and be a much superior/smarter defensive guy, the value could be massive. (Perhaps for us, perhaps in trade.) *If* Almora could somehow learn to hit, his ability to play CF combined with his power potential could be a really good fit on the roster. If that were safe or sure, he'd not still be available for spot #6. But there has been enough contact success and scouting respect for his swing; it's too soon to dismiss his chance to blossom into a variably capable hitter, even if his walks are low. Sure he had a terrible year, with ridiculous leg kick, all grounders, resulting lowsy BABIP, and no walks. But I think he may improve a lot on each one of those. I particularly think his power-potential is underrated. He's not Bryant/Baez, but he's a pretty big guy, and his BP power is excellent. "If" things do work for him, I think he'll drive more balls in the air and pull more balls, both of which will boost his HR output. I'm hoping. HItting is the hardest/rarest gift in baseball. McKinney may have it. His HR potential may be being undersold, and that's key. 11 HR's as a teenager in A+ is promising, even if inflated by Cal League. Some of HR power is strength, but much is contact and leverage. With physical maturation, and given his pure hitting knack, I think he might mature into a 20 HR guy. A 20+ HR guy with walks and contact could be a super valuable regular, even in LF. I'm hoping he's just such a really good hitter that some of the good contact will just naturally end up over the wall.

Out of curiosity, have you heard any questions about Torres other than he hasn't played above short season yet? Not really. The following might be some concerns: 1. Just the lack of power, either present or projected. 2. Second, he was >2:1 GO/AO last summer. There isn't a lot of good that gets done by hitting ground balls. My unresearched impression/fear is that most guys who are "lift" hitters later were lift hitters when young, and that the orientation towards lift versus ground balls is manifest pretty early. Not sure what the history of development is for that, or how naturally changeable/coachable/correctible that is. 3. Some scouts have questioned whether they really see him as a plus defensive SS; seems like I've seen some outside-the-organization scouting things suggest that he may eventually be a move-to-2B possibility. I buy into the true-SS view, myself, but given the very high standard of big-league SS defense, it's hard to actually be an asset defensive SS. 4. He did K 40 times per 182 AB. Not bad per age, but I'm not sure he's Almora or Vitters or anything like that in terms of contact gift. I'm really hopeful. That his present power, who care he's young, so that by the time he's 24 he'll be hitting 12-18 HR per year. That his defense will be really good and that he'll be a real asset defensively, better than any of the Castro/Baez/Russells that we have now, or the Cedeno/Theriot type of a few years ago. Hopefully the ground ball thing will just be a 17-year-old small-sample thing, and he'll be driving the ball with authority through gaps and sometimes over the wall very soon. And that with time the 2:40 HR/K ratio will soon be blossoming into 15:80 instead.