craig

Phil mentions Skulina going down from Tennessee to Daytona group. He had a relatively ineffective outing. Not sure what the "promotions/demotions" really mean in camp; obviously normally guys are going down. Vogelbach isn't really likely to start with Iowa; we didn't really expect Torrez to start with Tennessee, etc.. So lots more coming. Phil mentions Conway actually getting moved up a group, from SB to MB. Contra-normal. I imagine could just be populating the work groups better. Perhaps he's looking so controlled and polished that he's just flat-out earned a promotion and seems ready for Daytona. Or perhaps some rotation vs relief issue? Norwood and enough guys have emerged who are preferred SB starters, so perhaps they thought they might need him for rotation there, but now they don't anymore, so if he's not going to be pitching rotation anyway, why not bump him up a level for relief? Beats me. Everything changes a lot once the season starts anyway.

He hit two more in the playoffs, so 4/63 or something? That would reflect a 10-HR pace. Scouts project as they like, so if they project him as a 10-14 HR guy, that might play OK if other thing were good. Mark Grace averages 12HR/162 games. If Zagunis had Grace-level power, with Grace-level OBP, I'm sure that could play OK in LF. OK, obviously ridiculous.

Ash Marshall, on Zagunis ‏@AshMarshallMLB @BleacherNation Cubs LOVE his speed and athleticism. Already advanced on basepaths. Will play most in CF, but bat profiles in corners too. =========== Zagunis moving from catcher to primarily center field, if Madison and Marshall are actually right about that, is an interesting and somewhat unusual shift on the defensive spectrum. Z's obviously a lot faster than Almora, but while I'd heard he runs well, I'd assumed that was more "fast for a catcher", as opposed to "center-field fast". So I'd assumed a move to the OF would be to a corner rather than center, and his power wouldn't look that hot in a corner. But, if he emerged as a good defensive CFer, his offense might have more starter-potential. Of course we all want Almora to thrive and have a great season and a great career for the Cubs. But CF is one defensive spot where we don't have a lot of present options if Almora fails. Perhaps Zagunis will emerge as a possible option. Very interesting development, I think. Speed and athleticism are great, of course. But they're most great when a guy can also hit. My understanding is that the Cubs not only love his speed and athleticism, but they foremost love his hitting. *If* he's got pitch recognition and plate discipline skills, combined with really good contact skills, he could *maybe* be pretty nice. Easy to think based on Eugene and a few KC games, though; that will be tested greatly in the carolina League. If Almora and Zagunis became two CF possibilities, they'd be interesting in their opposite offensive profiles. High-walk OBP Zagunis versus no-walk Almora.

McKinney, there was reference to needing to work on his defense. He's also had an injury in camp, which may be impacting him.

Today Phil had Corey Black starting, although he got lifted after 2.1, after walks four guys plus a WP. (Wild is wild, I guess.) Pimentel pitched 4, so perhaps they don't have enough actual prospects to populate the Tennessee rotation, and will need a roster-fill guy like that still? Interestingly, Edwards also pitched in that game; in relief. Gave up 3 runs and walked 3 in his single inning of work. Disappointing, both his wildness and that he wasn't starting. The Cubs could struggle in the lower minors to score runs. Over the last three rounds, Zagunis, Hannemann, and Bruno are the only top-10-round hitters drafted by the Cubs outside of the first round. So while the A-ball pitching might be really, really fascinating and exciting, the lineups in A-ball might be really packed with organizational guys, and very thin on real hitting prospects. I suppose SB could have Zagunis and Torres, so that's at least two, and perhaps at some point Eloy as well. MB could have Caratini? And I suppose Hannemann and Candelario. Tennessee should have Almora, Vogelbach, and Schwarber, so I guess that's not without interest.

Some recent Az Phil stuff: *Norwood pitched 4 shutout innings, retiring the last 11 guys. He was getting rotation innings, and pitching well in them, in an earlier Phil report as well. Write him in for SB. *Stinnett allowed 5 runs in recent start. That's presumably not the kind of domination and command that would get him a Myrtle spot. So probably write him in for SB too. *Steele got hit in the ankle (I think) earlier in spring, and missed some time. The other day he pitched versus Canadian amateurs, but only 1 inning . *No indication that any of the Brink/Maples/Santana/Garner/Thorpe/Farris/Wilson are getting rotation innings. Revised SB: Stinnett, Norwood, Conway, Null, Clifton, Sands (6) Revised MB: Skulina, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, Torrez, Martinez (6) *My understanding is that Skulina has been looking good, so perhaps he'll get promoted fairly shortly if he starts well, or perhaps they'll just start him up at AA right out of the gate.

Caratini played last year at age 20. Too early to know what he will or won't become, either offensively or defensively. Perhaps some solid HR-game-power will grow over time, but hardly certain. Perhaps with experience, coaching, and practice, he'll emerge as a legit defensive catcher, but hardly certain. The combination of his actual hitting (good K/W splits, some hints of possible power) combined with the scouting reports (some projection of possible power) justify hopes that he may become a pretty good offensive catcher. My impression is that he's got a chance to be solid in a lot of areas, but outstanding in none? May become a decent defensive catcher, but no talk of extraordinary. Might mature into some HR's, but not tons. He looks like a good hitter, but not amazing. From the age and stats side, I totally understand some people ranking him ahead of Zagunis. He's somewhat younger, he's a level ahead, and his catching defense is definitely more advanced, particularly in the catch-and-throw aspect. I rank Zagunis ahead, myself. My sense is that the Cubs scouts and farm people are very excited about Zagunis's hitting, more so than about Caratini's. We'll see how it goes this year. Maybe the Cubs don't see it that way, or maybe they're wrong even if they do, time will tell. This season should tell a lot for both prospects, I think. Would be awesome if both make good progress defensively, and both hit really well too.

For me, I'd view that as a negative. If he stays as a flat .800-type OPS guy, or the .787 he was this past year, I'd consider that a disappointment and it wouldn't motivate me to jump him in my rankings. It would motivate me to drop him further. I don't think his current general level, .270/.360/.440, is that good for a minor-league 1B. You've got to do better than that in the minors, for a 1B. My view is that the biggest jump by far is the big-league jump. So, if he spends a couple more years doing steady-state .800 with .440-slugging in AA and AAA, my expectation is that it would then drop following a big-league promotion. So for a big-league DH/1B, I don't see a ton of value. We don't have the DH in our league, and AL teams don't trade a lot for DH/1B's who project to hit .750-OPS in the majors. If the assumption is that he could not only hold steady-state through AA and AAA, but then could also hold at .800 in the majors, I'd be more positive. But it's so common that guys have diminished stats in the majors compared to minors (many exceptions, for sure), that I think just hanging out at .440-ish slugging in the minors isn't going to produce much value for us in the majors. That's my thinking, at any rate. The trade market for guys who might hit 15-18 HR's while playing weak defensive 1B just isn't that hot, I don't think. If he can boost that so he looks more like a 22-34 HR guy, that's a somewhat different story. Maybe jumping out of the FSL and that's exactly the kind of power we'll see this year. I'm hoping.

Thanks, Logan, good post. Your arguments are that basically Vogelbach was the same guy. Basically the same guy minus 3 HR's and 8 hits. Same guy, very consistent from year to year, so that he didn't really take a step back. I've got him 21 on my personal list that I made up some time ago, and I think I have him a little too high. (I've heard some positive things about some other guys I had behind him then, so I'd probably drop him a few more spots if I was re-doing it today.) So just a couple of thoughts on why I don't have him higher, or don't think he should be as high as 15. 1. He didn't take a step forward. It's not that he took a step back and wasn't the same guy. It's that he WAS the same guy, and DIDN'T take a step FORWARD. To be a top 8-12 guy last year was predicated on the projection that he'd get better. 2013 had been his first exposure to full-season; he was adjusting. 2013 he was asked to work on something. 2013 he got tired. 2013 was his first year playing in the cold. He was going to do some major body-improvement. With less weight, his bat speed might improve or he might more easily get around on inside fastballs. With practice and less weight his defense might improve. Scouts view him and project him as a power hitter. There were a lot of possible factors a year ago to rationalize why his 2013 performance hadn't been more excellent, and why it might become significantly more excellent in 2014 and beyond. As with any prospect, the ranking involves projection. Ranking him favorably then was fundamentally predicated on the projection that he'd get better. But, he didn't. He was the same guy. And that guy, in my subjective valuation, isn't a top-20 guy in this particular system given the depth of other interesting guys. He was the same guy, which isn't good enough unless he gets better; and other people passed him up. Subjective, for sure. For me, personally, the "who would I more regret losing in a trade" subjective question is one I use. 2. Being 21 in our system is good. Our system is good. Anybody who makes our top-30 is a player who, if things go right, has a chance to be quite useful. That includes Vogelbach. I'm not arguing that because he was good-but-not-good-enough in 2013, and remained good-but-not-good-enough in 2014 doesn't mean he doesn't have a chance to step it up future. Guys often plateau for a while, and then take a jump later. That could certainly happen for him, and I'm dearly hoping it does for him in AA. So, my putting him in the 20's isn't writing him off at all. He's got a chance. Maybe outside the FSL, he'll jump to a 26-HR guy this year and we'll love him. 3. Age-per-level. I'm not factoring in the age-per-level thing quite like you are. I don't think he was particularly young at all for a prospect in Daytona. Yes, there is an average-age-for-level. But that average is factoring in all the players, most of whom are not real major-league prospects. If you look through the Midwest League top-20, or FSL top-20, it's totally normal that the better prospects are years younger than league average. So, compared to respected big-league prospects, I think Vogelbach's ages these last two years have been fairly typical, and not notably young at all. Again, I'm not at all suggesting he's too old to improve. He might. But, he has to, and he hasn't yet. So just staying the same isn't what he needs; he needs to get notably better. 4. As you noted, there don't seem to be reports of notable defensive improvement, either.

It could be assumed that the majority of those who voted for Stinnett then voted for Zagunis, while many people who were voting for both Vogelbach and Stinnett then changed their votes to Vogelbach and Zagunis. Given how many votes Vogelbach had at #12, it's surprising he hasn't been selected yet. Especially when Sands only got 6 votes 3 rounds ago and now he's beating out Vogelbach who had more votes than he did in each of the past 3 rounds. Maybe Vogelbach is something of a bipolar guy in fan perspectives? 10-15 posters seem to like him a lot, and keep voting for him. But those who don't, keep NOT voting for him? For me, most rounds there are guys others are voting for that I'm not voting for yet, but I feel "pretty soon I'll vote for him too, just not yet. But the arguments in favor are pretty persuasive." But Vogelbach, I haven't felt that way yet (and probably won't for another 5 votes if he remains unelected that long). For me, the puzzle is why he was already a bridesmaid at 12 already. Hope he has a breakout season this year, though. Lot of smart posters voting for him, so I'm probably missing something they are seeing.

That reflects some of my thinking, too.

Sands and Rivero.

On Underwood, we know he can throw hard. But the comments about his "two swing-and-miss offspeed pitches, his changeup can be very good" is what caught my attention. What some of the BA-type reports have suggested that each of his pitches looked good at times, but he rarely if ever had them all working at the same time. My friend who saw him get hammered one game said the scouts he was sitting with said he was telegraphing which pitch was coming. (Obviously that wasn't true subsequently.) I think the "swing-and-miss" pitches also haven't been true for long, since he hasn't been a serious K-guy. But 84K/101IP is decent, and way better than the 27K/54IP in Boise. Work in progress, we'll see. But with his velocity, if his curve and change can both be quality swing-and-miss pitches, he could be really good. On Stinnett, I know he hasn't pitched for long. But I'm not sure "raw" is how Derek Johnson sees him. I think they view his delivery and repeatability to actually be pretty advanced, and see him as something of a fast-mover. I guess it would be the change that's raw, even if fastball/slider are in pretty good shape.

Man, I've got to say our system is in nice shape when we're at #14, and we've got guys like this left to argue about. *I was listening to a podcast with Chris Crawford (??) of BP. He loves Sands, and thought he was 1st-roundish guy. He's not going to make our top-15? Nice. *Eloy we'll see, but he's a big strong guy, and may become another Soler physically. And he's still on the bubble to make our top-15? Nice. *Caratini is a nice, switch-hitting catcher who may hit and may have reasonable power? And he's not going to make our top-15? Nice. *For whatever his faults, Vogelbach is a a pretty interesting hitter, and may have some power eventually. Many scouts still like his bat, but most of us aren't going to vote him into our top-15. Nice. *Rivero is fast, has a killer slider, and has been K'ing the world. But he can't crack our top-15. Nice. *Skulina had a bad knee, but now he's supposedly healthy and throwing nasty 92-95 again, but he's not even on our list and not even in top-20 discussion. Nice *Etc. Man we've got it good these days as prospect watchers.

I voted Rivero/Sands, but totally get Jiminez, Caratini, and Zagunis. I don't get Vogelbach, though. I'm sure hoping this is a breakout year for him, and it may be. But a platoon-DH-contact hitter, with middling power, I don't see a ton of upside or trade value there. If some serious game-power breaks out, maybe then he can work his way back in to my top 20. I've been a Rivero voter and supporter, but I admit I have my questions there. Why doesn't he get more buzz outside of Cub-fan-dom? Or even inside the org? I'd anticipated that he'd get a pretty serious look this camp, but that hasn't seemed true at all. Wonder if there's something they don't like that I'm not seeing? Or maybe it's just that he's so wild, with little reason to expect that to change at his age. I'd have thought a guy like that would have been really working to come to camp sharp and impressive, but in his one inning he seemed like the wildest guy in Arizona. Will be interesting to see how he does once the season starts. Hopefully he gets in a groove and his control looks improved.

With Skulina apparently healthy and throwing well, I wonder if the Cubs may actually consider just shooting him up to AA, where I don't think they really have 5 rotation prospects? Amazing how many Tennessee/Daytona starts were absorbed by guys who were pretty much non-prospects even at the time. *Last year's AA roster had the following rotation starts: Loosen 19 Rhee 16 Figueroa 11 Gardner 10 Pena 6 Antigua 4 Julio Rodriguez 3 *Daytona: Scott 26 Pena 19 Rosario 16 Dorris 11 Wang 11 Amlung 9 Wells 5 Kirk 1 Maybe Stinnett will still hold back at South Bend for a while, beats me.

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/113091452/mlb-pipeline-checks-in-from-cubs-camp Callis: McLeod

Thanks, cal, for AzPhil link. He had some other days of listed starters. As you said, no surprises. *Steele hurt his ankle in camp, so he's going to fall behind. Given that he was questionable to start with, I expect that will seal it and he'll stay back in XST. *Pineyro is healthy enough to be pitching "starter" innings. *Paniagua, no surprise, pitched a 1-inning outing, suggesting he's tracking for relief. *Phil said that Underwood started but got pulled after one inning, unknown why. *Norwood working like a starter, I'd wondered if he'd be an XST or perhaps a power-relief guy. Glad he's still with the starters. *Leal working like a starter. I'd wondered if he'd be a lesser prospect and be filtered out. *Skulina worked like a starter, another guy I'd though might be slid to relief. May still, but still in the pool. Mostly all unsurprising stuff, so for the moment still seems consistent with: South Bend options: Sands, Clifton, Null, Conway, Norwood, Leal (Stinnett) Myrtle: Stinnett, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, Torrez, Skulina, Martinez Tennessee options: Zastryzny, Pineyro, Johnson, Edwards, ??? *With Johnson and Edwards, I wonder if either or both will start at Tennessee? *Tennessee could have some roster-filler type guys, or not-so-interesting types. But A- and A+ both look really interesting. *I'm expecting Stinnett to start at Myrtle Beach. And Sands to start full-season. *Phil had very few and zero unexpected "unable to participate" guys listed on his roster. But, not sure that means he knows. There may be variable guys who aren't healthy who he doesn't know about (yet). And with 2+ more weeks of camp, there are additional opportunities for guys to twist an ankle or come down with a sore elbow before the season actually begins. Cubs are very cautious with injuries, so seems likely there will be some "expected" guys who aren't ready to break camp with the full season rosters. *I think about the prospects I view as younger and more interesting. But often, they end up starting some guys who are more experienced and perhaps not so high-ceiling. So it wouldn't shock me at all if one or more from the James Ferris, Ryan Thorpe, Ryan Williams group, for example, ended up starting at South Bend or Myrtle Beach.

I think I'll be voting Rivero and Sands for my next few votes, until one of them "wins" and comes off the board.

I've got Vogelbach at 21, although arguably that's still too high. Behind Jiminez/Sands/Steele/Cease/Zagunis/Caratini/Daury Torrez, but still ahead of guys like Zastryzny, Blackburn, Clifton, Hannemann, Conway, Mitchell, Baez, Paniagua, Rademacher. Vogelbach is a nice, disciplined W/K hitter. Might end up playing in Japan or playing in some Indy league for a long time. But hitting .268 without serious HR's in A-ball probably doesnt project to getting him a long-term big-league 1B/DH job. This is the year for him. Can't blame anything on being young; or adapting to full-season; or "working on something"; or to Florida State League. Hit 24 HR's while keeping the rest of his profile, he's on the map. But another 16 HR summer and he's fading fast.

Personally I'm surprised to see Vogelbach getting support this early. he's still a long ways off for me. Hope I'm wrong. This year is really a put-up-or-get-forgotten type of year, probably. He's been getting along in prospect rankings based on his hitting, even though he hasn't really hit all that much for the past two seasons. To make it as a DH/1B, you better be really good offensively. Hitting teens-HR's per year in A-ball doesn't quite come close to doing it for me. A lot of evaluators who projected his HS power favorably still think it's there and still project HR's, and others who have watched BP have said he's got plenty of power. But somehow he's got to boost his in-game HR output to make it, given his defensive status. .787 and .824 OPS's the last two years, that just doesn't really seem like top-15 production for a DH/1B who wasn't really all that young for his league. He better boost that a lot this year or I'm guessing his believers will increasingly lose interest.

Easy one for me, real separation after these two. Stinnett and Rivero. I'm with hairy duck, Rivero has a lot to like. A putaway killer slider, and he's shown it's a killer pitch all the way through AAA. Really fast fastball, so getting to 2-strike counts won't be that rare for him. His stuff is going to work in the majors. Got a chance to be a very good reliever, which are invaluable. In prospect rankings, he's the victim of anti-reliever bias, and anti-age bias. Stinnett has a chance to be a really good starter. A possible control artist with really good slider and strong fastball, with the chance to be durable. Both of these guys have chances to be very, very valuable and effective major leaguers who contribute to a lot of wins.

Agree that Sands and Steels are key. Sands will be 20 when the season opens. Steele turns 20 this summer, and is less experienced pitching. Wouldn't surprise if Sands made South Bend but Steele didn't. I'll be pretty disappointed if we see roster-fill guys like Pena, Scott, or Rosario starting in A-ball. I pretty much figure the full KC rotation will all move up (Underwood, Tseng, Blackburn, Torrez, Martinez) unless there is somebody else they WANT to see at Myrtle. Stinnett or Skulina, that might be true, so they might need to hold somebody back or piggy-back. But I don't think they'll do that on account of Scott, Pena, or Rosario. AA will be really thin, as it was last summer and as was true at Daytona. Well, I suppose unless they start BOTH Edwards and Johnson there. One long-shot for AA is Michael Jensen. He was pretty good at Peora three years ago, finishing very strongly; and finished pretty strong in rehab year at Daytona last summer. Being two years off of surgery now, I'd be a lot more interested in him than guys like Scott or Pena, or Pineyro, at AA. I'll be surprised if Wild Black is still starting again. But, given the lack of competition for AA rotation, maybe they'll figure he giving him the innings is still best developmentally.

South Bend: Conway, Null, Clifton, Sands, Steele. Q's: *Will Stinnett be perhaps left behind? Martinez? *Derek Johnson loves Null, so he's expected to start. Will Null affirm that in spring and make the rotation? Or will he blah-out and lose his spot? *Will both Sands and Steele look good enough to make this step? Or will one or perhaps both struggle enough to get left behind? *Will anybody from the Norwood/Brink/Maples/Santana/Garner/Thorpe/Farris/Wilson crowd look sharp and win a spot? Myrtle: Stinnett, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, and Torrez *If Stinnett doesn't make it, might Martinez or Skulina compete? *Skulina seems a forgotten man, but he was somewhat hurt last year. Sometimes a new year and new health can lead to new results. Will the long-lost Trey Masek appear in professional baseball? Heh heh, remember at draft how optimistic some of us were with Tyler Skulina, Trey Masek, and Scott Frazier? Tennessee: Zastryzny. Will either Johnson or Edwards return to Tennessee? Will Corey Black, and if so in rotation again? Maybe they'll just push Skulina up and start him, and tell him to sink or swim?

I think Madison and Johnson are thinking Myrtle Beach for Stinnett. But, guys need to show up in camp and look fine, so some control issues can set that back. Man, we need to have a thread with the projected rotations at each level, eh? Myrtle: Stinnett, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, and Torrez *If Stinnett doesn't make it, Martinez or Skulina seem best guesses, or some roster filler. South Bend: Conway, Null, Clifton, Sands, Steele. *Martinez could stay behind. Or somebody from the Norwood/Brink/Maples/Santana/Garner/Thorpe/Farris/Wilson crowd. *Perhaps even the long-lost Trey Masek will appear in the professional baseball! Heh heh, remember at draft how optimistic some of us were with Tyler Skulina, Trey Masek, and Scott Frazier