craig

Torres has a .463 BABIP.

Clifton and Cease.

For the small-sample moment, Hannemann's season is over .350 BA; over .400 OBP; over .450 slugging; and over .850 OPS. In AA at age 23, and with <160 games of pro experience, it's not like he's so old that he should be written off. If he just stays the same as he was last year, obviously not so promising. But his track record of mediocrity isn't long enough to disprove at least the possibility that he'll be better future than he was last year. It's early, though. Everybody goes through some streaks both hot and cold; when the hot ones come in April, it's a lot more noticeable and stats-bumping than when they come in July. Presumably he's due to cool off soon. But over these last 9 games, he's 17/39 with only 4 K's. He was a high-K guy during the first 8 games, and he K'd too much for a non-power guy last year. So this is probably a brief and misrepresentative fluke. But, sometimes guys do get better. Maybe some real and sustainable improvement is somewhat real? Would be really fun if between Clifton, Null, Hannemann, and Contreras, if a couple of their good starts were for real. Null and Clifton seem the more likely, though.

No trade value. Probably a career minor-league guy. But hitting is the hardest tool, an IF he can hit enough, you never know. Unlikely, but might make it. It's hard, though, to make it as a infield sub when you're bad defensively. For a deficit-defense guy, you really need to hit well. In that sense he might be something of a Tommy LaStella wannabe, only without the walks. (Bruno's career: 145K/6HR, 145K/52BB).

Will be interesting to see if Stinnett actually makes his start, and if so whether he throws strikes and has a good game. Of if he's maybe got some control or "yips" problems that are going to dog him. Of if his disaster last outing was because he's got an arm problem, and he won't be starting at all for a while.

Two grounders and a bunt.

13K/0BB/0HR is a rather nice profile. The beauty of small sample size, of course. But it kinds of fits both with his small-sample last summer, and his college profile. No idea what the guy has in terms of off-speed stuff, or fastball movement. (I thought he was supposed to be a 2-seam guy, but he's not been notably ground ball-oriented in these first two starts.) K/BB/control has a sort of Hendricks-ish feel. Heh heh, beauty of small sample! Hendricks did it league after league after league for four years straight, a little different from doing it for two starts in April. :) But he's interesting until sample appears to the contrary. And as for Hendricks, Null throws harder.

Tim, could you add Jeremy Null? If his start today can match his first start, I want to vote for him! :) (Jinx!) Was a control, low-walks guy in college, but had good K-rate too. Apparently pitched last college spring with an injury of some type; perhaps otherwise he'd have drafted way higher. Drafted young, so despite being a college draftee he'll pitch all this summer at age 21, so age is not against him. Tall guy, 6'7", and perhaps there's still a little more velocity projection left from last draft spring? A low 90's 2-seamer with good control, a guy can win a lot of games with that. Cubs people apparently like him a lot. For now, I'll vote Steele and Cease. Steele seems like he may be a solid control guy, and again a low-90's good control lefty can have a long career. Cease obviously has the most explosive arm we've got, pre-surgery, and reasons to think that may be true or become true again post-surg. No clue whether he'll have any control or any breaking pitches. But it's been a while since the Cubs had a real power-arm rotation prospect, so until he proves otherwise, I'm hoping he'll work out.

Control isn't a big deal with Baez and won't drive if or when he gets called up. You don't obsess over control seven years from now for players who aren't likely to be stars. He doesn't make enough contact to project as a star, so there's little reason to let 7-years-from-now-control dictate what you do with him now.

Control is a big deal for expected stars, not for JAGs. To some degree, the longer Baez continues to swing through a lot of strikes, the less meaningful the extra year of control will be. For example, I think a reasonable projection for Baez, long-term, might be as a .755-OPS guy. A .755-OPS 2B with good defense is a useful player. But it's not like resigning a .755-OPS guy would be a budget-buster; or that losing a .755-OPS guy would be a dynasty-buster. (I get the .755 using 35HR/200K/35BB in 620PA, with otherwise normal BABIP.) Heh heh, I suppose if Baez shows up in Iowa pretty soon and explodes, and builds up hopes for being much better than .755 guy, perhaps the extra year of club control would look much more significant. If I replace 35HR/200K with 45HR/180K, the calculation jumps from .755 to .851.)

McNeil 5K in 3 innings. Would be nice if he's fully healthy and has control. A HS guy taken with the 2nd pick of 3rd round was perceived as having good potential, if things went right for him. Paniagua with 6K/0BB in 3 innings. Paniagua with no walks could be a very nice pitcher.

I wonder if he's a "wait until someone gets called up and then you are in the rotation" guy. Of course, I really hope Stinnett does so well that he forces his way to MB..... I'm guessing Martinez is about #7 or so on the rotation depth chart, until perhaps Stinnett and perhaps Null and Norwood get promoted to bump him down further? That makes sense to me, he's a relative soft-tosser and probably has less ceiling than any of the other six guys at Myrtle, I'd think, or about 8 guys at SB and below. . Presumed Starting 5: Underwood Tseng Torrez Blackburn Skulina All look more promising to me, and throw harder (even Blackburn is faster than Martinez, I think, or projects to be so.) I'd also put Conway at #6, ahead of Martinez. Throws harder, and has strong control of fastball. He may just get used in relief, given that they have plenty of other rotation prospects and may not want to mess with piggy-backing in high-A. But Conway is fast, throws strikes, and can locate his fastball. Last year was his rehab year, so I'm sure they didn't let him throw full speed or throw a lot of sharp breaking balls. Usually first year back after injury a guy is very limited, and it's mostly fastballs diet. So this second year is really the potential breakout year, where the K's can go up when you put guys away with the breaking ball.

Thanks for first-hand observations, Vance. Would sure be great if Almora was able to put things together.

I wanted to give Raw, Tiger, and Duck all some support for their guys! I voted Rivero and Steele. I think I'm in a pitcher groove for a while. I'll probably be voting for guys like Zastrysny, Cease, and Torrez, maybe Clifton, Norwood, and Skulina too if they start the season strong, before I get around to any position guys like Szczur, Baez, or Candelario. I'm a big believer in the value of good relievers, so no hesitation on Rivero based on his role. I'm a big believer in the value of 4th outfielders and 5th infielders. They play. I admit for Szczur I'm still not feeling like his upside is more than a 5th outfielder. Perhaps I'm underselling him. Maybe I'm just jaded by 116 games of .626 OPS in the hitter-friendly PCL.

I think Thorpe will be in the rotation/piggy-back pool for SB. There is certainly promotion-potential within the rotation. Iowa is largely roster fill, and Tennessee extensively so. So if Edwards gets on a good run, he could promote. If Skulina or Tseng or Torrez or whomever gets on a good run at Daytona, any of them could promote. South Bend is primarily a college rotation, and certainly the hope would be that Stinnett and/or Norwood/Null/Thorpe/Hedges would pitch well enough to promote. If Sands sequences a series of strong outings at XST, he can promote too. Agree that McKinney down to Eloy, same sort of deal. Hopefully guys are playing well enough to justify promotions, and that promotions are due more to earning than injury.

Arizona Phil has:

That article doesn't seem to include Pierce Johnson on their roster?

Yup, it could end up being, very good. *Stinnett might look like a gem. *Clifton's been young, and kind of inconsistent, but he's at an age where guys can get stronger and faster and better fast. If he has, he could emerge and look like a really good prospect. *Norwood was scouted with a very fast fastball, and he was only 20. He's been quite sharp in camp. If he shows up throwing well into the 90's and getting lots of outs, he might be very good. *Null is a tall guy who had some good velocity reports, and had excellent K/BB ratios in college, and supposedly has a good sinker. My understanding is he wasn't healthy last summer, and that cost him in the draft. But he's supposed to be 100% this year, and he might emerge as a very interesting sinker/control/anti-HR guy who's got plenty of velocity to make that work. *Ryan McNeil was supposedly emerging as a pretty good looking prospect before his surgery. Last year he was way wild and terrible. But what if he's actually 100% now, and back in the groove? For all we know he might have plenty of arm and plenty of breaking ball to be a serious guy. *Leal, OK, I'm struggling to see how he's going to be very good. *Hedges is a tall guy who's had some excellent control. For A-, maybe he'll actually be a pretty steady winner? It could be quite interesting and quite good. And Sands and Steele might arrive too, at some point.

South Bend, always hard to predict. *Torres is the only serious position prospect, and being so young, he might be a guy who really isn't all that W-L good. (For example, if he hits .265 with a .300 OBP and .385 slugging, and makes a lot of errors, that might not win them a lot of games. But we might still get the "that's very good for his age, that's a good season, and remember how many errors Jeter made when he was a teenager, that's normal for a teenage SS".) If Torres isn't really all that proactive W-L wise, an they don't get very lucky with some of the other guys, that could be a pretty bad offensive roster. *Stinnett is the name for rotation, and maybe he'll be really good. But, he's a 2nd-round guy who didn't seem to be K'ing anybody in camp, maybe he won't be really all that good? Almost a lose-lose for South Bend record-wise: if Stinnett isn't very good, not so good for SB record. If Stinnett *is* really good, fair chance that he'll be up to MB after the first half if not sooner. Can never tell, though. Might well be that guys like Jesse Hodges, Chesny Young, Jason Vossler, maybe they'll all be pretty successful winners relative to low-A. And OF might not be good, but Baez, Burks, Brown, Belaguert, Trey Martin, Rashard Crawford, that might end up being a pretty productive OF relative to low-A, again even if the big-league chances aren't compelling. Rotations, Stinnett, Norwood, Clifton, Null, Hedges, Leal, McNeil, who knows what you'll get out of that crowd. Also possible that come mid-May, perhaps Sands or Steele are impressing enough in EXT to come up and augment the rotation. Low-A is always the hardest to predict, because for a lot of guys the jump from short-season to Full-A is a big one and guys I thought were interesting get filtered out fast. Just not enough known about many of the guys at this stage to know what they can or can't do at that level, or who will or won't have improved significantly since last year. Maybe a month from now we'll perceive Stinnett, Clifton, Norwood, McNeil, and Null as a very high-quality A- rotation, who knows?

I think Myrtle Beach will easily be the winningest team in the system this summer. That's got a chance to be a really, really good roster in terms of minor-league success. *Catching could be excellent with Caratini and his bat. *OF with McKinney, Hanneman, and Zagunis could be very productive, and excellent defensively. *Rotation could be really deep and really good (minor-league-wise, at least, even if some don't have overpowering TOR big-league stuff.) *Relief could be really good relative to A-ball. *The infield is obviously the weakest aspect. But an infield with Rogers, Lockwood, Penalver, and Candelario could by very A-ball solid in terms of winning games, even if not for big-league prospects. Penalver is really weak offensively, but he's very slick defensively. Only a year ago a lot of posters were pumping him as a top-30 guy. Lockwood hit for high average and had an OBP around .350 last year. Assuming he can sustain that, that's fine. Rogers isn't a big-league prospect, but the guy is a good A-level hitter. If Candelario is terrible again, having him and Penalver both bad will hurt the offense. But if Candelario can take a modest step and get up into the mid-.700's OPS, or perhaps better, I think the infield will be pretty good and the offense in general will have an unusually good OBP for an A-ball level. To have only one auto-out in the lineup (Penalver) is pretty rare in A-ball, isn't it? That should be the team that could run away from it's league.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/04042015/cubs-pelicans-pitchers-give-bees-66ers-sinking-feeling#more

Toonster, I think future improvement is partly a factor of age, but also of experience. A guy who's 21 and been whipping low-level college competition, he's probably got more adjusting left versus pro competition than a guy who's already been facing pro pitching for four years. Candelario may be only 21, but with three full years of American pro experience, I think he's pretty experienced with what pro pitching is like. And at least during the three years of seeing it, he's shown no facility to respond and adapt and become successful at hitting it. Maybe something will finally click in his 1100th AB or something, hopefully. But often if a guy can't hit or figure anything out during 1000 AB, there's probably a reason and his ability to see/recognize/react/drive probably won't transform all that dramatically during his next 1000.

Duck, until this spring I'd have figured that even if he did make the team or pass Lake, that he'd be totally the definition of a replacement-level player. (Or sub-replacement-level, even if he was forced onto the roster.) I think the nice spring and the adjustments are what provide (for me at least) the hope that he might be both on the roster and capable of providing above-replacement performance.

"Ceiling" is hard for me to get a handle on, or to get too interested in. Hitting fast-moving baseballs is really hard. I'm thinking that if a guy has trouble hitting for three straight years, it probably reflects that his ceiling probably isn't that high. He's just missing something. Won't shock me at all if he blossoms into a .750+ OPS guy in A-ball this year, though, which could support a winning team there. I feel differently about pitcher ceiling. Guys who have very good arms do sometimes find a new grip, add a new pitch, adjust their delivery, and go from not-very-good to good. Samardz, arrieta, there are other examples. But how many hitters mechanically adjust themselves from bad to good? If he's our best hitting prospect at this point, I'd be voting for a bunch of pitchers!

Interesting call. I've kind of forgotten about him, kind of like Christian Villanueva. For a guy who is going to be a defensive liability at any position, Canderalio has had .741, .742, and .667 OPS in his three US years in the US, and got worse when he repeated at Kane County last year. (.742 2013, .727 2014). Guys often plateau or regress a bit, then can sometimes take a significant step. So hopefully that's his deal this year. Kind of a forgotten memory for me.