craig

Include Skulina.

Thanks super much, Johnny. Excellent to get the reports. If anything, I thought it was interesting that so many were hitters rather than pitchers. I thought if they were signing a dozen $200-type guys, it would be predominantly projectable arms. But it appears to have been more than half projectable position guys. Hopefully a couple of these guys develop well. My understanding for the Mexican kids is that money given to their teams does not count against the cap? So perhaps one or more of these guys the investment was more substantial, and perhaps the potential?

Caratini and Rivero.

Phil has a variety of roster reassigns. Rotation wise, Edwards to AA, Stinnett to South Bend. Black also to AA, although remains to be seen whether as starter or reliever. Player-wise, Eloy and Mitchell both down to XST, McKinney down to MB. With Eloy and Mitchell (and Galindo) on the player side, and Sands and Steele pitching, XST will have some interesting talent. We'll see whether those all wait for Boise, or perhaps some come up sooner if they are doing well. As noted earlier, Zagunis seems posed for pretty much OF work at MB. A guy who talked to Madison earlier said that Zagunis would play mostly CF, but with Hanneman also there my guess is Hannemann will get more CF and Zagunis will get some but probably more corner. We'll see whether Hannemann can hit at all, but an OF with Zagunis, McKinney, and Hannemann could be very productive offensively. Catcher will probably split between Caratini and Contreras, so Zagunis probably won't play there unless they decide they want him to, but Caratini/Contreras could be a pretty solid catcher duo offensively. Not sure what they'll have on infield, but perhaps Candelario might be finally ready to step up and be somewhat A-ball productive. Prospects are what count, of course, and vets like Candelario and Contreras aren't much anymore, but they'll still heavily influence whether MB scores a lot and has a dominant season or not.

Thanks much, Johnny! I think they're going to try to spend this year, while the current rules still apply.

My top six at this stage, in some order: Caratini, Cease, Zastryzny, Sands, Rivero, Steele 1. Caratini. I'm not as high on his defense as toonster. But the population of catchers who are both average defensively and average/decent offensively is limited and valuable. He's got a chance to possibly develop into an average defender, and as disciplined hitter if his bat matures with some contact and some power he's got a chance.. 2. Cease. Control, who knows? Raw and wild to start, and lot so guys post-surg have reduced control. But, he's the fastest guy in the Cubs minors, I don't think anybody even close. His velocity is on another level. Guys who can throw 96 at half-speed don't grow on trees. Plus, whatever control questions and surgery questions, the Cubs knew all that and knowingly committed $1.5 for that potential reward, risk included. Sure, SNTS and all that, and with the cautious injury comeback, he'll take a while. But he's got a chance to be way good. 3. Zastryzny. Forgotten man. He was inconsistent last year, with some quite good stretches, but some real bad stretches too, and mixed/erratic reports at best for his fastball. 110K/33B is rather nice. I've heard that his fastball is back this spring, and he's looking good. Already at AA this year, so if he was 100% physically, and a little sharper, a little more consistent, a little faster, he could emerge pretty nicely. 4. Steele. Lefties who project well for good control and 90+ velocity are interesting. I'll stick with Sands and Rivero at this point. But mark Zastryzny as my dark-horse surprise candidate for this spring.

Not a rotation thing, but McKirahan got cut.

I have Vogelbach behind Sands and several other guys still on the list, so I didn't vote for him. But, if this is looking like a tie, I'll happily flip my vote for Vogelbach, just to get this runoff resolved, and to move on to other guys. Part of the fun is just seeing how different posters evaluate guys and getting insights into the players. This has been the best and most thorough Vogelbach discussion yet, so from my view I don't want to have the Vogelbach issue recurring again and again for 16, 17, and 18, even if he's only 21 on my list. So, if flipping my vote to Vogelbach helps us to put him behind us and move on, I'm good with that. It's not like I have great confidence that there is much separation between the six guys I still have ahead of Vogelbach and Vogelbach and the six guys I have behind him anyway. So if he comes in at 15, no problem. OK, I've just talked myself into it. I'll go flip my vote to Vogelbach right now, to give him a bigger lead. I'll check back later and see if Sands has caught or passed, and if so then I'll flip my vote back to Sands. :)

Tseng went full-season right away last year, and he was younger then than either Steele or Sands are now, almost half a year younger than Sands. I recall totally assuming he'd be a short-season guy, and being totally stunned when he did make Kane County. So I'm not at all suggesting his astonishing placement last year being at all normal. Perhaps speaks to what remarkable command Tseng already had as a teenager.

Phil reports Steele and Sands each with one-inning work. I assume that implies both will be held back. Interestingly, Phil hasn't seen Underwood or edwards go longer, either. Zack Hedges has, could be a South Bend candidate.

There are 15 AL teams, and not all have a primary designated hitter. Many use that kind of as a rotation job. (Rest function for regular position players, give some AB to bench guys to keep them sharp.) So, it's not that easy to get a job as a primary DH, and there aren't many teams looking very hard to trade a lot of value for DH. To make it as a long-term regular DH, or to make it as a DH prospect for which teams offer significant value for in trade, that requires some fairly serious hitting value. Maybe being one of the 20 best hitters in the three A+ leagues in a given year is a pretty nice platform for getting there. A bunch of the better top-20 hitters in the three A+ leagues are older and don't project well. And a bunch of the other ones will be good enough to play a position, so they won't be competing for DH jobs.

Logan, thanks for the numbers and work and context there. As interesting (and encouraging) as they are, we do need to keep in context that using qualified-leader-boards has a fundamental limitation: it works for "qualified" leaders. Many of the very best prospects get promoted mid-season, and thus don't have their rate-successes appear on "qualified" leader boards. They also don't appear favorably on volume leader lists, because of the truncation. I'm not trying to disrespect Vogelbach here; but there may be some guys who started in FSL who got promoted while Vogel didn't. And others who started in low-A who got promoted up to FSL. I haven't actually looked, but in the Southern League Bryant, Soler, and Russell were three awesome prospects. Their awesomeness is probably not well reflected in the qualified-leader-boards. But those numbers do remind that the volume and quality of really productive hitters on the FSL qualified leader board is quite limited.

Thanks for the pro-Vogelbach argument, Tim. Well articulated. The fundamental uncertainty I have with the argument is whether it's appropriate to project A-ball stats to the majors? Maybe it is in his case, and that proves true for a number of successful major leaguers. Based on his numbers, he could become the Billy Butler of A-ball for the next decade. But our real question is whether he'll be able to become the Billy Butler of the NL? (Mentioning the Butler analogy made me look at Butler's stats, and Butler is probably typical for most big-leaguers: more often than not a guy's big-league stats aren't as good as his minor league stats.) For Vogelbach, we are basically asking that his big-league stats match his minor league stats, and in the case of HR's to exceed them. For some guys that does indeed happen. But more often than not it doesn't. Good likelihood that his K-rate will rise, for example, and his walk-rates will go down. (Although hitting more HR's in majors than minors, that's pretty frequent, I think....) While it's perhaps less than probable that Vogelbach will be able to have big-league stats that match or exceed his minor league stats, I do realize that we're at #15 in our rankings here. Big-league success is presumably less-than-probable for all of the candidates at this point.

:) :). Man, it's going to take me a while!

Phil mentions Skulina going down from Tennessee to Daytona group. He had a relatively ineffective outing. Not sure what the "promotions/demotions" really mean in camp; obviously normally guys are going down. Vogelbach isn't really likely to start with Iowa; we didn't really expect Torrez to start with Tennessee, etc.. So lots more coming. Phil mentions Conway actually getting moved up a group, from SB to MB. Contra-normal. I imagine could just be populating the work groups better. Perhaps he's looking so controlled and polished that he's just flat-out earned a promotion and seems ready for Daytona. Or perhaps some rotation vs relief issue? Norwood and enough guys have emerged who are preferred SB starters, so perhaps they thought they might need him for rotation there, but now they don't anymore, so if he's not going to be pitching rotation anyway, why not bump him up a level for relief? Beats me. Everything changes a lot once the season starts anyway.

He hit two more in the playoffs, so 4/63 or something? That would reflect a 10-HR pace. Scouts project as they like, so if they project him as a 10-14 HR guy, that might play OK if other thing were good. Mark Grace averages 12HR/162 games. If Zagunis had Grace-level power, with Grace-level OBP, I'm sure that could play OK in LF. OK, obviously ridiculous.

Ash Marshall, on Zagunis ‏@AshMarshallMLB @BleacherNation Cubs LOVE his speed and athleticism. Already advanced on basepaths. Will play most in CF, but bat profiles in corners too. =========== Zagunis moving from catcher to primarily center field, if Madison and Marshall are actually right about that, is an interesting and somewhat unusual shift on the defensive spectrum. Z's obviously a lot faster than Almora, but while I'd heard he runs well, I'd assumed that was more "fast for a catcher", as opposed to "center-field fast". So I'd assumed a move to the OF would be to a corner rather than center, and his power wouldn't look that hot in a corner. But, if he emerged as a good defensive CFer, his offense might have more starter-potential. Of course we all want Almora to thrive and have a great season and a great career for the Cubs. But CF is one defensive spot where we don't have a lot of present options if Almora fails. Perhaps Zagunis will emerge as a possible option. Very interesting development, I think. Speed and athleticism are great, of course. But they're most great when a guy can also hit. My understanding is that the Cubs not only love his speed and athleticism, but they foremost love his hitting. *If* he's got pitch recognition and plate discipline skills, combined with really good contact skills, he could *maybe* be pretty nice. Easy to think based on Eugene and a few KC games, though; that will be tested greatly in the carolina League. If Almora and Zagunis became two CF possibilities, they'd be interesting in their opposite offensive profiles. High-walk OBP Zagunis versus no-walk Almora.

McKinney, there was reference to needing to work on his defense. He's also had an injury in camp, which may be impacting him.

Today Phil had Corey Black starting, although he got lifted after 2.1, after walks four guys plus a WP. (Wild is wild, I guess.) Pimentel pitched 4, so perhaps they don't have enough actual prospects to populate the Tennessee rotation, and will need a roster-fill guy like that still? Interestingly, Edwards also pitched in that game; in relief. Gave up 3 runs and walked 3 in his single inning of work. Disappointing, both his wildness and that he wasn't starting. The Cubs could struggle in the lower minors to score runs. Over the last three rounds, Zagunis, Hannemann, and Bruno are the only top-10-round hitters drafted by the Cubs outside of the first round. So while the A-ball pitching might be really, really fascinating and exciting, the lineups in A-ball might be really packed with organizational guys, and very thin on real hitting prospects. I suppose SB could have Zagunis and Torres, so that's at least two, and perhaps at some point Eloy as well. MB could have Caratini? And I suppose Hannemann and Candelario. Tennessee should have Almora, Vogelbach, and Schwarber, so I guess that's not without interest.

Some recent Az Phil stuff: *Norwood pitched 4 shutout innings, retiring the last 11 guys. He was getting rotation innings, and pitching well in them, in an earlier Phil report as well. Write him in for SB. *Stinnett allowed 5 runs in recent start. That's presumably not the kind of domination and command that would get him a Myrtle spot. So probably write him in for SB too. *Steele got hit in the ankle (I think) earlier in spring, and missed some time. The other day he pitched versus Canadian amateurs, but only 1 inning . *No indication that any of the Brink/Maples/Santana/Garner/Thorpe/Farris/Wilson are getting rotation innings. Revised SB: Stinnett, Norwood, Conway, Null, Clifton, Sands (6) Revised MB: Skulina, Tseng, Underwood, Blackburn, Torrez, Martinez (6) *My understanding is that Skulina has been looking good, so perhaps he'll get promoted fairly shortly if he starts well, or perhaps they'll just start him up at AA right out of the gate.

Caratini played last year at age 20. Too early to know what he will or won't become, either offensively or defensively. Perhaps some solid HR-game-power will grow over time, but hardly certain. Perhaps with experience, coaching, and practice, he'll emerge as a legit defensive catcher, but hardly certain. The combination of his actual hitting (good K/W splits, some hints of possible power) combined with the scouting reports (some projection of possible power) justify hopes that he may become a pretty good offensive catcher. My impression is that he's got a chance to be solid in a lot of areas, but outstanding in none? May become a decent defensive catcher, but no talk of extraordinary. Might mature into some HR's, but not tons. He looks like a good hitter, but not amazing. From the age and stats side, I totally understand some people ranking him ahead of Zagunis. He's somewhat younger, he's a level ahead, and his catching defense is definitely more advanced, particularly in the catch-and-throw aspect. I rank Zagunis ahead, myself. My sense is that the Cubs scouts and farm people are very excited about Zagunis's hitting, more so than about Caratini's. We'll see how it goes this year. Maybe the Cubs don't see it that way, or maybe they're wrong even if they do, time will tell. This season should tell a lot for both prospects, I think. Would be awesome if both make good progress defensively, and both hit really well too.

For me, I'd view that as a negative. If he stays as a flat .800-type OPS guy, or the .787 he was this past year, I'd consider that a disappointment and it wouldn't motivate me to jump him in my rankings. It would motivate me to drop him further. I don't think his current general level, .270/.360/.440, is that good for a minor-league 1B. You've got to do better than that in the minors, for a 1B. My view is that the biggest jump by far is the big-league jump. So, if he spends a couple more years doing steady-state .800 with .440-slugging in AA and AAA, my expectation is that it would then drop following a big-league promotion. So for a big-league DH/1B, I don't see a ton of value. We don't have the DH in our league, and AL teams don't trade a lot for DH/1B's who project to hit .750-OPS in the majors. If the assumption is that he could not only hold steady-state through AA and AAA, but then could also hold at .800 in the majors, I'd be more positive. But it's so common that guys have diminished stats in the majors compared to minors (many exceptions, for sure), that I think just hanging out at .440-ish slugging in the minors isn't going to produce much value for us in the majors. That's my thinking, at any rate. The trade market for guys who might hit 15-18 HR's while playing weak defensive 1B just isn't that hot, I don't think. If he can boost that so he looks more like a 22-34 HR guy, that's a somewhat different story. Maybe jumping out of the FSL and that's exactly the kind of power we'll see this year. I'm hoping.

Thanks, Logan, good post. Your arguments are that basically Vogelbach was the same guy. Basically the same guy minus 3 HR's and 8 hits. Same guy, very consistent from year to year, so that he didn't really take a step back. I've got him 21 on my personal list that I made up some time ago, and I think I have him a little too high. (I've heard some positive things about some other guys I had behind him then, so I'd probably drop him a few more spots if I was re-doing it today.) So just a couple of thoughts on why I don't have him higher, or don't think he should be as high as 15. 1. He didn't take a step forward. It's not that he took a step back and wasn't the same guy. It's that he WAS the same guy, and DIDN'T take a step FORWARD. To be a top 8-12 guy last year was predicated on the projection that he'd get better. 2013 had been his first exposure to full-season; he was adjusting. 2013 he was asked to work on something. 2013 he got tired. 2013 was his first year playing in the cold. He was going to do some major body-improvement. With less weight, his bat speed might improve or he might more easily get around on inside fastballs. With practice and less weight his defense might improve. Scouts view him and project him as a power hitter. There were a lot of possible factors a year ago to rationalize why his 2013 performance hadn't been more excellent, and why it might become significantly more excellent in 2014 and beyond. As with any prospect, the ranking involves projection. Ranking him favorably then was fundamentally predicated on the projection that he'd get better. But, he didn't. He was the same guy. And that guy, in my subjective valuation, isn't a top-20 guy in this particular system given the depth of other interesting guys. He was the same guy, which isn't good enough unless he gets better; and other people passed him up. Subjective, for sure. For me, personally, the "who would I more regret losing in a trade" subjective question is one I use. 2. Being 21 in our system is good. Our system is good. Anybody who makes our top-30 is a player who, if things go right, has a chance to be quite useful. That includes Vogelbach. I'm not arguing that because he was good-but-not-good-enough in 2013, and remained good-but-not-good-enough in 2014 doesn't mean he doesn't have a chance to step it up future. Guys often plateau for a while, and then take a jump later. That could certainly happen for him, and I'm dearly hoping it does for him in AA. So, my putting him in the 20's isn't writing him off at all. He's got a chance. Maybe outside the FSL, he'll jump to a 26-HR guy this year and we'll love him. 3. Age-per-level. I'm not factoring in the age-per-level thing quite like you are. I don't think he was particularly young at all for a prospect in Daytona. Yes, there is an average-age-for-level. But that average is factoring in all the players, most of whom are not real major-league prospects. If you look through the Midwest League top-20, or FSL top-20, it's totally normal that the better prospects are years younger than league average. So, compared to respected big-league prospects, I think Vogelbach's ages these last two years have been fairly typical, and not notably young at all. Again, I'm not at all suggesting he's too old to improve. He might. But, he has to, and he hasn't yet. So just staying the same isn't what he needs; he needs to get notably better. 4. As you noted, there don't seem to be reports of notable defensive improvement, either.

It could be assumed that the majority of those who voted for Stinnett then voted for Zagunis, while many people who were voting for both Vogelbach and Stinnett then changed their votes to Vogelbach and Zagunis. Given how many votes Vogelbach had at #12, it's surprising he hasn't been selected yet. Especially when Sands only got 6 votes 3 rounds ago and now he's beating out Vogelbach who had more votes than he did in each of the past 3 rounds. Maybe Vogelbach is something of a bipolar guy in fan perspectives? 10-15 posters seem to like him a lot, and keep voting for him. But those who don't, keep NOT voting for him? For me, most rounds there are guys others are voting for that I'm not voting for yet, but I feel "pretty soon I'll vote for him too, just not yet. But the arguments in favor are pretty persuasive." But Vogelbach, I haven't felt that way yet (and probably won't for another 5 votes if he remains unelected that long). For me, the puzzle is why he was already a bridesmaid at 12 already. Hope he has a breakout season this year, though. Lot of smart posters voting for him, so I'm probably missing something they are seeing.

That reflects some of my thinking, too.