craig

Jokisch, Paulino, Geiger. Jokisch is 24, not old, and is coming off 3.4, 3.1, and 3.1 ERA seasons, with 1.2, 1.3, 1.2 WHIPS. Nothing sticks out as exceptional (no amazing high-K or anti-HR or anti-walk). But nothing stands out as problematic, either. Similar with his stuff; no reports of any "wow" velocity or killer breaking ball. But it's also not clear that his velocity or stuff is prohibitively lacking or anything. Prohibitive for being an ace, of course. But I wonder if he might not just end up being a decent/solid pitcher? even in the majors? He's got a chance. Does any of his stuff profile well for relief? Or too bland for that?

Paulina, the 18-year-old DSL star? Who knows how good he might become? However, the fact that he's been 2 years DSL and he's not working in Mesa right now makes me wonder if they don't see his arm as that special. Geiger: It's not likely that his A-ball hitting will translate all the way up, but he's got a shot to be a big-time power guy. Big enough chance to be worth a spot in the 30's. Wells: It's not likely, but he doesn't need huge changes to become good. A little faster; a little more fastball control; a little more sharpness and consistency on his support pitches.

Man, it's non-ideal when 3 of the top 4 are HS pitchers. What a bad break.

If Soler can't hit, I doubt it will be because he had a break in his career. And if he really had the God-given talent to hit before the interruption, I doubt the interruption will make that ability ineffectual. Hitting is hard. We'll see how it plays out this year.

Nice catch on Mejia. Bruno not listed as non-participating. Don't seem like any of the interesting arms that are listing as unexpectedly hurt. Rotation wildcard may be what they do with Vizcaino, Rivero, and Rondon. Might one or more be taking rotation starts at AA or Daytona? Otherwise, doesn't really look like Iowa has guys who will bump down and take AA rotation spots. Nice point on Arias/Paniagua at Kane, while Zastryzny/Skulina are with Daytona for now, and Wells. Yeah, assuming Z and Skulina go down, that really will be log-jam to the max at Kane. Jose Paulino not included with the Kane group. Was he in the car accident?

What do we have on Torres, scouting-wise?

Jose Paulino, Ben Wells, Arias in that order. Sorry Geiger, you've got a chance to hit a ton of HR's and have a mashing season, but I'm going with the pitchers. Paulino got a really favorable review by BA. Athletic 18-year-old lefty who's already 89-92 and projects more? Control pitcher? Anti-HR guy? 71K/12BB/1HR/58IP? I'm going to beat the rush and get on the bandwagon early. Wells has the gift of a much-movement fastball. Imagine if he's a little faster, a little stronger, and a little more consistent with his off speed stuff? This could be a breakout season for him. Last year was largely a "don't get hurt, show you're healthy enough" year. But this year is more ambitious. If he's not faster and his control doesn't improve, write him off. But despite his injury issues, Wells will still be only 21 and pitching in AA. If he's effective, you've got some value. Arias is big and strong, can throw mid-upper 90's, and could have a good slider. Another breakout candidate.

He had an arm injury, and seems to be kind of in Bruno-land. Uncertain whether he'll play any games defensively this summer. The details have never come out, to my knowledge, whether he had TJ surgery or rotator-cuff surgery or never actually even had any surgery or what.

wekim, your guy Cabrera is having a good camp thus far. I haven't been voting for him because I've thought he's struggled to actually pitch very effectively very consistently. So I thought there was a good chance he'd be waived. But he's had a clean camp thus far, and with all the struggles that Grimm and parker and rosscup have had, if things don't change a lot it will probably be easy to justify carrying Cabrera and sending options men down. Different question whether he can stay up. 4 solid outings in early March doesn't mean he'll stay good. But, looks like he'll get a chance.

HR's. If he jumps his HR's a bunch, and scouts project that he'll hit a lot future with power combined with pure hitting skill, they'll rank him well. Really good hitters with game-realistic HR potential and excellent CF defense appeal to scouts. But without persuading them on his HR future, his offense won't seem strong enough for top-5 status. Kiley has him high because he anticipates power. If his season reduces Kiley's belief in that, he'll back off too, I'd guess.

I'd put Jose Paulina in the next vote. Lefty from DSL, BA ranked him top-20 in that league, (which has every big league team represented). Writeup seemed very nice to me.

Jose Paulino was ace of the DSL championship team. BA includes him in DSL top-20. I don't think they rank them 1-20, so no idea if he just slipped in or might have been near the top. The writeup reads VERY favorably to my eyes. A 6'2 athletic lefty with some projection who's already 89-92 with sink, control, feel, and some nice-looking off speed stuff? Sign me up.

Nice. didn't Parks or somebody report that Black was spotting 94's nicely just a few days ago, as well? Hadn't gotten the favorable bit about Jiminez's recognition and discipline.

I like the Zastryzny report.

Yeah, in a lot of years I'd be hoping that both Leal and Daury Torrez might skip up to Kane County and start there.

I'm a huge Arias fan. If healthy, I think he takes a rotation spot at Kane County and has a breakout season. Is there a thread elsewhere on projected assignments? Who do you think will actually be starting at Daytona? If they put Arias at Kane, that already seems potentially overloaded with either good arms or power arms. They'll either need to have piggy-back galore (Heh, maybe they should just have ten piggy-back starters and three relievers?) Or else some guys who really don't have much pro pitching experience may get sent to Daytona. Guys like Arias and Paniagua haven't pitched much, or Zastryzny or Skulina. But perhaps some guys who would normally start at low-A will get started at Daytona. Perhaps Arias will be one like that? Heh, if he's healthy and takes a rotation spot at Daytona and has excellent results, that would be even more of a breakout!

Wells, Geiger, and Jose Arias. My understanding is that Arias is healthy now, and that his fastball is really fast with sink. Could be a surprise.

If Tseng was good, and at Kane County, that could be a really interesting rotation. Tseng, Blackburn, Zastrysny, Skulina, Maples, Paniagua, Underwood..., there are so many really interesting names that they should be able to have a 5-deep rotation even if one or two skip to Daytona, or if Underwood gets held back for another year, or if Paniagua is relief or rotten. But that could have the capacity to have the best 5-deep rotation we've seen at any level in some time.

Good news that he's in camp. That hadn't been true as of Arizona Phil's reports. Also nice that he looks good to another observer. It's not just Badler.

Rosscup for me. K's and anti-HR profile give him a reasonable chance to be effective at the major-league level for a long time. Bruno's hit .360 at both small-sample stops, so I hope he's just a true-blue never-quit contact hitter. Defensively it was debatable whether he could be more than just a 2B before the injury. After arm surgery I think his chances of being able to throw well enough to play anything other than 2B/1B/DH probably haven't improved. He's got little/no power, he's a low-walk guy, and he K's a fair bit thus far. His BABIP thus far is .443. Hopefully the surgery will have worked 100%, that he'll be able to play reasonably big-league 2B/3B, maybe some SS and OF too, and be a super-utility guy. Hopefully the BABIP and average remain excellent, and eventually he settles into at least a reasonable amount of IsoP and IsoD.

Interesting, thanks. Maybe I'm wrong on that.

I've wondered that, too. My guess is extended spring. I think a couple of reasons: 1) Innings 2) Culture 3) Coaching 1. He was 18 when he signed last summer, and there were arm concerns in the industry. I think they'll want to be very careful with his innings. If he starts out in cold Midwest League, that will be something new. And he'd probably exhaust his innings limit well before end of August anyway. 2. This is his first year in the U.S. So, I'm not sure he's gotten the full "Cubs Way" indoctrination, or a whole lot of coaching. Kane County is primarily a "playing" league, not an instructional league. Every night a game, with half of those on the road with time spent in the bus. Mesa has more coaches and is geared towards more instruction. New players at Mesa also get more "classroom" time on Cubs Way and various game situations. So I think a lot of that might be better served in Mesa. They also have English and American-culture training for internationals at Mesa. Not sure if the English is meaningful for a Chinese kid, though, if everybody else in the class is Latin. So maybe that's useless for him. But still, Mesa is controlled and protected, dorms, food, exercise, everything. Easier for a new guy than figuring out where to go and what to order (healthy) in Beloit or Peoria. At Boise, the players live with host families; at Kane they are on their own. I'd think he'd be better served for his first season to have a single host family who'd help him out. Perhaps they'd be able to find a Chinese-speaking host family to make it a lot easier for him. Or maybe not. Maybe they don't want to have any of those "safer/easier-for-him" situations, and they'd prefer he was going out with teammates, ordering at MacDonalds, and learning to live more on his own.

I wonder how this year will go for Bruno. Q1: Did he have elbow surgery, or shoulder surgery? Was it regular old TJ? Given that he's still wearing elbow brace and isn't allowed to toss overhand yet, I don't think he'll play in any competitive throwing box-score games for months. Second baseman has to make throws from a lot of directions and angles. Given that minor-league teams carry 13 pitchers, I doubt they'll want to have a DH-only guy on a full-season squad. That would effectively limit the manager to having only one reserve catcher, one reserve infielder, and one reserve outfielder. So I expect he'll need to stay in Mesa for rehab until he's actually cleared to throw and play the infield. I'm guessing that if things go very well, he might be able to start playing with the rookie-league team in Mesa when they open at the end of June? I hope. Might just be a rehab year, and return to playing real full-season games next season.

Rosscup, Wells, and Geiger. 1. Rosscup K's tons, and HR's very little. Fair chance whatever enables that in the minors will also work, even if to a lesser extent, in the majors. Effective relievers can contribute for a long time. 2. Wells and Geiger have chances to be breakout guys this summer. Wells has extremely good movement, guys don't like hitting against him. If his velocity improves a bit, this being two summers since his injury, he might be a pleasant surprise. After the injury, I assume a lot of focus was on arm health. Perhaps being a year further removed increased attention can focus on his breaking stuff. 3. Geiger has a shot to hit a lot of HR's. He hit in some bad luck in Daytona. His offensive profile (power, contact, discipline..) was very balanced. If he can pump up his HR's, his stats could look really good. Perhaps comparable to Vogelbach with better defense? Obviously he needs to hit a lot of HR's, and we'll see. But he's got a shot to be a very professional hitter with serious HR power. .825 OPS in some bad luck in FSL. If the HR's jump, and he posts an .875+ OPS in AA at age 22, that might seem worthy of top-35 status.

Last year Amaya had a healthy .322 BABIP. But still hit only .252 overall (with a sub-.700 OPS). That happens when a quarter of your AB's aren't put in play, but you're hitting less than .050 on those AB, with a K/HR ratio > 20:1. To have a decent OBP and slugging, he'll need a decent batting average. For that to happen, he'll either need to get a lot more HR-hits, or else K a lot less. I expect both of those are possible, but it's not easy. It's kind of odd, because his scouting profile has been as a contact hitter with good bat skills. But he keeps striking out.