craig

Agree that high-ranked teams rarely stay on top, because the guys that get them ranked high either graduate or else lose their luster. Since we probably won't graduate many impact guys, we probably won't lose talent. I see four top-ten guys who might leave the list. But maybe not.... 1. Contreras. Good chance that if he has a good year and remains a list difference-maker, that he'll graduate this summer. But, that may depend on other contingencies. (Health for Montero and Ross; development and adequacy of Schwarber as a catcher.) It's possible that he'll have a very good season, but still last in Iowa long enough to remain listed next year. 2. Almora. Again, if Fowler is resigned, or they get some other CF who stays healthy and plays well, perhaps Almora will stay at Iowa all summer an just be a Baez-like September call up. But, not hard to imagine a situation where they go cheap and roster-fill at CF, such that IF Almora is performing at a high level at Iowa, that he'd get a summer call up and be off the lists. Obviously more likely that he doesn't hit well enough to make a compelling case for a call up, and as a result is just a guy on lists next year, and his presence or absence won't really impact much where the Cubs might rank relative to the league. 3. Edwards. Pitchers are always in short supply. With 12 big-league pitchers, somebody will get hurt or will pitch badly. If Edwards is still on these lists next year, it probably won't do much to put us into the top 5... 4. Similar for Johnson. Either he'll pitch well enough to graduate, or be mediocre enough that he'll have little impact on league listings.

1. Contreras 2. Torres G 3. Almora 4. Jiminez 5. Billy McKinney 6. Underwood 7. CJ Edwards 8. Tseng 9. Pierce Johnson 10. Cease 11. Happ 12. Eddy Julio Martinez 13. Zagunis 14. De La Cruz 15. Steele

Good point on trade comment.

Thanks, Dave. Glad to have some conclusion, in Cubs favor, on that signing. Now lets hope he actually becomes a good player.

Wow, fun to see Candelario so hot. If you add his fall league numbers to his Myrtle and Tennessee stats for the summer, his 2015 composite would now be over .800 OPS, at age 21. With a batting average up around .288, and good K/BB/HR splits. Normally middle not corner is prototype for utility player. But in the hypothetical that he could become decent at LF/1B, a switch-hitting 3B/1B/LF guy could be pretty useful, if he was a pretty professional hitter from both sides. He's got some pretty inconsistent lefty-righty splits, so not clear if he's got a definitively stronger better side.

It's $6, not $3 cost to Cubs. Agree with spirit of post, though.

Totally not surprised that williams got negligible attention. In a large, 5-star league, why would managers even be talking about a part-year control pitcher? 2.76 ERA, he was nice performance-wise, but that's not super-amazing, or ballpark to Kyle Hendricks who was 1.85 ERA at same level/age, and that wasn't even enough to get on the list. If a Cub pitcher was to get consideration, I expect Pierce Johnson would have gotten more. My friend is friend with one of Cubs top pitching scouts. He claims that Williams can get it up to 94-95, but usually runs 91-93. (I think he's a bit of a fast-gun velocity-inflater...) But, it's not like Williams doesn't have anything to work with. If he's got five pitches and can command all of them variably well, that's not bad. In a world where the Cubs traded for Dan Haren, an anti-awful back-end guy on a team with lots of offense and a strong bullpen can help. Not expecting Williams to ever do much for us, but you never know. Thing with Hendricks is that the change is/was SO good. It helps to have one plus-plus pitch, one put-away pitch, one pitch that hitters fear. I don't think Williams has any individual pitch that is really good. One other note on BA lists: BA guys invest a lot of time on draft. So if there was a pre-draft guy who scouts thought might project into something, I think then that name is already in BA's head. If the guy then emerges in the minors, he's already in memory bank. Or if he's been in a league list or team list a previous season, the BA writers will all be familiar.

Thanks for list. That's a very, very strong league. Heh heh, when Schwarber is #4, and justifiably so, it speaks to that. BA gives "ranking" to it's league lists; Southern was 5-star, Midwest was 2-star, for example. Twins with four top-ten guys there, pretty nice. As I mentioned in other thread, I'm surprised/pleased that in such a deep list, Almora was able to make it at all. The comment about him having a "carrying tool" is well taken; he doesn't have to hit a lot to become a long-term major-leaguer. Defense and contact can keep you around. We know McKinney isn't power or speed or cannon or defense. If he's going to have a carrying tool, the tool that needs to carry him will obviously need to be hit bat. So some scouting concerns about his bat are concerning. But, given the depth/quality/talent in that league, not surprising that a contact-hitting LFer who hit a good but not-amazing .285/.766 didn't make it. Next year is another year. McKinney has been moved very rapidly, playing AA season at age 20. But, I wonder if the Cubs won't take it reasonably slow with him from this point. With Schwarber/Soler/Coghlan, plus Bryant, LF/RF should be well stocked for the short term. So I would expect McKinney to start again at Tenn next spring, and rejoin the championship Myrtle guys. McKinney will obviously need to hit >.300 or bump up his HR's somewhat.

Just to follow up on CubsWin's post. Montero is old for a catcher, his years are numbered. Whether or not Schwarber is going to be a high-usage catcher is very much uncertain. His defense may be too poor; his hitting might be so good they don't want to wear him out there; the may be so World-Series-Nowacrat that they don't want to invest big-league development time on him as a catcher? So, I think there's a very clearly open path for Contreras to become a Cubs "starter". Whether that's a "share-time" catcher with Schwarber, who knows. Maybe Contreras plays a lot, Schwarber plays some and plays a lot of OF. Or, maybe Schwarber plays a lot at catcher and Contreras a little. I think this year has been interesting; Montero is clearly the primary guy, but Schwarber and Ross have combined to catch a lot of games and get a lot of catcher-AB. I'd guess that even if Schwarber does become the primary guy in future, that he might like Montero get a lot of days off. If some future Contreras was to basically pick up the equivalent of all the Ross-Schwarber starts from this year, that might not be "starter", but that would be a very significant player over the course of a season or 6 club-controlled years. We'll see. At Zagunis, agree that a good-OBP 4th OFer would have value. Fowler has played a significant role as leadoff guy; if he goes, not sure what happens next or who's leadoff. In time perhaps Almora will be an outstanding fielder and a capable hitter, but he may profile more as a #9 or #7 hitter in Maddon's usage. If Zagunis turned out favorably, he might be a nice leadoff guy on days when he started? Again, we'll see. Obviously these aren't in the Russell/Baez/Braynt/Soler/Schwarber class of future-starters-who-could-become-stars. But, you need support players, and Maddon uses the bench a lot.

Contreras was #11. Pretty good in a strong, deep league. To put the depth into context, Schwarber was only #4 on the list, despite posting a 1.000+ OPS there with .430 OBP and 16 HR in 75 games, and then hitting another 16 for the Cubs. If the league has 3 guys better than Schwarber, and only six guys between Schwarber and Contreras, that's pretty favorable for Contreras. I also suspect that there's some "where did this come from and will it last" questions with Contreras. Fifth season in the states: .333/.413/.891 (2015) .242/.320/.679, (2014) .248/.320/.742, (2013). .273/.316/.673, (2012) .261/.305/.652. (2011) When a guy's been in the .240-.275 batting average range, and suddenly he hits .333, can you believe it will last? When a guy's been in the .305-.320 OBP for four years, and suddenly flashes .413, can you believe it will last? When a guy's been in the .650-.750 OPS window for four years, and suddenly he's .891, can you believe it will last? This year's numbers are just so wildly out of line with his past history, I suspect there's some natural and very appropriate hesitation on the kid.

No.

Tim, what did they think on Zagunis's power projection? And his defensive profile future?

Candelario, Almora, and Contreras are all guys whose first halves could be interesting. None have been consistent or sustained prior to the last month or two of this year, except Contreras who did it all year, but had never been good before. Career year for Contreras, or reproducible? Career months for Candelario and Almora, or reproducible? Will be fascinating to see what carries over for these guys, if anything..

Almora is 19th on this year's Southern League List. McKinney isn't on it. Schwarber, Contreras, Almora, those are the three, obviously in that order. Agree, toonster, McKinney doesn't have real signature tools, and the league was very deep with quality guys. As I said, I was actually surprised Almora still made it, even though his late rush has him back very high on my Cubs list. Doesn't mean McKinney won't have a good chance. I also agree with your point on Candelario: not much point in trading now. 6-hot weeks at Tenn isn't going to get very strong value now. But if he was able to sustain that for 2-3 months while playing respected defense, his value by next July could be more substantial. I think it probably makes more sense to hold, and hope he improves enough to make it worthwhile. Assuming he doesn't sustain and we end up with nothing for him, not much lost because we'd not get much for him now anyway. Tim, thanks for the Candelario comments. As with most anybody, HR's are kinda significant. Every HR is a hit for BA/OBP and 4 bases for slugging. Every HR justifies about 8 K's or whatever. So, the difference between a Candelario with 9 HR vs 18 HR is huge. That approaches 40-50 OPS points, all else equal. As a mid-teens HR guy, if the glove is now viewed as solid, he's a solid/decent starter. As a 6-10 HR guy, probably hard to be an intended starter for long.

Carolina has only 8 teams, versus Fl State's 12, so team's should average 2.5 guys per top-20 there. (Especially unlike the big Midwest league...) I was very surprised to see Candelario on the list. (I had both Tseng and Zagunis well ahead of him on my list.) I'd be curious to see their scouting comments. My impression from past is that while Candelario has improved enough to at least have a chance to stick at 3rd, that there was little expectation that he'd be a real asset defensive 3B. For a non-speed guy without an asset glove and with only 5 HR and a .733 OPS, while in his 3rd season in full-A ball, I'd not have thought he'd make the league top-20. Hopefully that means some managers/scouts see something I'd not appreciated: 15-20 HR power projection, and a solid chance to actually get to that? Some split, where he looks much better one-platoon side than his composite switch-hitting numbers tally to? Above-average 3B defense? I'll guess they're more up on his HR power than I'd expected. The funny thing is that he was statistically superior in AA. Equal (5) HR in half the AB. K-rate, HR-rate, BB-rates all were better in AA, with resulting superior slash .291/.379./.462/.841. Will be interesting to see how much he falls off next summer. If he could otherwise replicate his other AA peripherals, while adding an extra 3-5 HR as can happen with a 22-year-old, maybe he'd look pretty interesting.

Sorry! I'd seen the lists some time back, but hadn't realized the off-sync between the different media sources. So, have you guys seen/shared the Carolina League second-ten? Or should that be not-discussed also?

McKinney didn't make either Carolina or Southern League lists. Only 29 games at Myrtle, so agree he wasn't eligible. 77 games, so probably was eligible for Southern? Almora made it as #19 in the Southern list. Southern League was strong, I think, so for Almora to make the list is more encouraging to me than it is disappointing that he wasn't ranked higher.

7. Underwood 13. Candelario 15. Zagunis

The last two months of the Cubs season have highlighted the value both of mid/back rotation guys, and of high-end starters. We've been using Haren; how many mid/back rotation guys wouldn't be much preferable? Same has largely gone for Hammel for the last month or so. Given our playoff roster, how much different might it not look to have Arrieta and Lester backed up by three mid-rotation guys who were fairly capable at that level? For a team that can score runs, and has an excellent bullpen, you can win a lot of games getting solid but non-dominant 5-6 inning starts from your 3-4-5 guys. We also see the value of having some top-end guys. Hammel was quite effective, very effective, as a mid-rotation starter for the first half. So, you can win a ton of games with mid-rotation guys who are doing OK. But, the margin isn't strong there. Not sure what's wrong for Hammel, but he's been quite bad for a while now. Hendricks is often good; but he doesn't have much margin to be off his game. Would be nice to have two really good guys (Arrieta/Lester), a very strong #3, and then have some quality depth so that most of the time your 4/5 guys might perhaps be pitching at Hammel's first-half level, or hendricks's level from last year; but then to also have some other options if guys like that slump.

DelaCruz has his WHIP down to a nice round 1.0. Good size, good numbers, good K-stuff, good control, good age. Everything in order, no red flags. Will be interesting to see how he progresses next year.

1. Eloy Jimenez 2. Gleyber Torres 3. Albert Almora 4. Willson Contreras 5. Billy McKinney 6. Carl Edwards Jr 7. Tseng 8. Ian Happ 9. Pierce Johnson 10. Cease 11. Duane Underwood 12. Mark Zagunis 13. DeLaRosa Heh heh, I put Jiminez 1st, since guys with massive power who don't K all the time and who have reasonable plate patience/discipline have a chance to be great offensive values. Torres has a chance, a good-fielding SS who might hit .250-.260 with 8 HR's would be a good player. But I'm choosing to go with the middle-of-the-lineup power guy who doesn't K as much over the middle-of-the-diamond defense guy who K's more. After Jiminez, Cease is the only other guy I see with potential star-power. Almora doesn't have star-power offensively. But I'm believing that the recent hitting is not a fluke. He's learned to use left field as well as center and right. His plate discipline and walks are fine. Not a lot of power, but not that bad. I assume his low BABIP is because he's a slow RH guy who hits a lot of weak contact. But, I'm also wondering if perhaps the terrible BABIP he was carrying for months isn't sustainable, and that a 44K/28BB/6HR guy really ought to be pretty competitive. He'll still be 21 when his PCL season starts next year, so there's time to boost the power a bit, especially now that he pulls the ball sometimes. I'm certainly influenced by the Cubs situation. Center field is not blocked long term, and outfield defense is terrible. So I think a really good defensive CFer would be a natural fit. (I think with so many high-K guys, they might appreciate a low-K guy to add some balance to the lineup, also.) Right now Almora is a .720-OPS guy, despite some low/bad/perhaps-unlucky BABIP numbers, having started the year at age 20. So, I'm optimistic that there's a fair chance that he'll be able to improve enough over the next several years so that he might be able to support analogous type .720 OPS as a major-league good-fielding CFer. Would a good-defense .720-OPS CFer be a star? No, of course not. But if the Cubs had a .720-OPS good-fielding cost-controlled cheap CFer batting 7th or 9th, I think that would be a rather good value. And given his youth and natural contact skills, I think withstanding promotion without getting killed might be more achievable. (For a guy who's highly K-vulnerable, I think promotion is more problematic than a guy without K-problems.) And I think it's easy to envision upside where he might become more than a .720-OPS guy, too. A .750-OPS CFer with good defense and low salary? Very valuable asset! McKinney and Almora are both 21. Almora is .720 OPS, McKinney .766 OPS (Tennessee). HR's it's 6 vs 7 (on season.) McKinney seems more likely to hit more HR and be a clear value hitter. Plus LF. But for today, I'm going with the good-defense CFer ahead of the shaky-defense LF/RF guy. McKinney could easily flip that, if some power emerges, and if he can establish that his defense is actually just fine. I feel like I should have Zagunis higher. Edwards is wild, but the guys stuff is obviously 1st-rate, and anti-HR means a lot. So in the K/HR/BB trio, he's great-great-awful. Hopeful they can touch him up enough to make it work. I like Tseng. Control can get a guy a long way. Perhaps says something when a guy has a 3.38 FIP at age 20, and we're all disappointed. life with Dan Haren is a reminder that "back-of-rotation" starter might not seem that valuable.... until you don't have one. Tseng and Johnson might not have a lot of star-power, but having some guys who might be solid decent 3/4 starters can help you win a lot of games with a great offense and a strong bullpen. Cease obviously has some possibilities of knockout stuff. Some star-power potential there. Recent reports on DeLaRosa also make me think he perhaps belongs in the pool. Chance to be a good solid starter.

One thing I've liked with Almora is that after he got so hot, but then cooled off, that he limited the "cold" stretch and now has pretty quickly seemed to get back into the groove. Every hitter has hots and colds. The good ones have ways to extend the hots, and to keep the cold periods short.

I've been all in on the rise of the Cubs hitting prospects. But I think we prospect-followers have all been trained and repeatedly reminded that not all prospects work out, and we should expect some failures. But now here we site. Alcantara has washed out. We've seen Castro fail to improve or even sustain. But Schwarber, Russell, Bryant, Soler, all look like they'll be variably good. And now with the recent splurge, there is improved reason to think that Baez may not wash out either, and Almora's getting back into the picture as a possible regular. As optimistic as all of us were, I don't think any of us could have assumed that all six of Bryant, Russell, Soler, Schwarber, Baez, and Almora would all end up being variably decent-or-better starters. But I'm getting more hopeful that both Baez and Almora may still be able to reach that, and we've got a really decent shot that all six of those guys really will make it. Pretty amazing.

Not sure what's changed for Almora in approach. But, he's using left field a lot more. Early in the season it seemed everything was opposite-field/center-field, very little pull field, and one or two video clips I saw seemed to suggest a stance and weight transfer that corresponded. During the hot streak, he's gotten a lot more hits, including many of the extra base hits, to left field. And from the game logs, it's seemed that he's getting a lot more line drives. Context: In some "top ten" lists, Gleyber has tended to be #1, and Almora has tended to be placed in the 5-10 range. Interestingly, Almora's season BABIP is still only .293. If Gleyber had Almora's .293 BABIP, he'd be hitting .229, and he'd not be ranked #1 by any of us. (105K/3HR is not normally conducive to a high batting average.) That Almora's composite numbers involve a low BABIP probably suggests he may actually project more favorably than the numbers suggest, and that it may not be as hard for him to sustain or improve his numbers next year despite promotion to Iowa.

Torres, everybody seems to like him, so I assume he's going to be good. I get the impression that defensively he's somewhat in the Russell mode. Doesn't seem to have an astonishing arm, or have incredible quickness, or be amazing or anything. But Russell seems to just be coordinated and do everything smoothly without unneeded effort. I get the sense that Torres may be of that highly-coordinate don't-make-anything-harder-than-it-is kind of guy defensively? But, nobody seems to scout him as amazing or gold-glovish as defensive SS or anything. He's hitting .296 now, but his BABIP has slipped a little. He'd now down to .379 by my amateur calculation, which is still very, very high, unsustainably. If he had a more normal/solid .310 BABIP, he'd be hitting .243, and he'd probably not be ranked so strongly. 102K/443 AB, it's not like he's showing himself to be a remarkable contact guy or anything. 102K/3HR ratio, that's rather scary offensively. But, he's 18 in full season, so who knows how much all of that stuff might improve with age. Still, I see him as being a potential good player. Plays solid defense (although not incredible gold-glovish or anything) and hits reasonably well. (But not with star-like contact or star-like power.)