craig

I won't. Might end up with $0.1-0.3 left over at the end, but I expect that Wilson will take them very close to their limit. I thought I heard that Hudson was about $350 over, or something like that. Basically Hudson will use up the Happ money, and Dewees is rumored to be slot. So, 1-3 composite right on slot. Wilson will eat up all the rest, I think. I'm assuming overage and senior signing will enable him to get somewhere in the $1.5-1.2 range, and there won't be anything meaningful left.

Thanks much, Duke. Very helpful.

Thanks, cal. In a season with very few happy stories on the pitching side, nice to have a positive one. Over his last 7 starts he's had only one bad one (4 innings, 3 ER). IN the other six, he's allowed a total of 6 earned runs combined, and gone 6 innings in all of the others into today's 7 IP. In the pitch-count world of the minors. getting in six innings in 6/7 starts is pretty good. And 6 ER in 37 innings is also pretty good.

I wonder how the mechanics of those pre-draft phone calls work. Area scouts who know the kid and his family are making those calls? McLeod makes them all? Madison? Every year we get reports of kids saying they've been called and team X was interested in them for Round Y but the player demanded dollars Z. I wonder whether between area scouts and McLeod/Madison/Hoyer/Theo etc., whether the Cubs don't have 20 phone conversations going on at the same time with 20 different players? Between Monday night and Tuesday noon they called Padgett, AND Hudson, AND Sands, and two dozen other guys, and got their won't-budge price tags, and then go back and discuss who's the best value-per-dollar. Padget wants $0.8, Hudson $1.2, Wilson $1.5, Sands $1.2? Which are the best values per-dollar? And how can we get the most value given the dollars we've got? Padgett at $0.8 might be better than Hudson at $1.6, but Hudson at $1.2 is better value than Sands at same price and enough better than Padgett so that the savings on Padgett at $0.8 aren't worth it? But I really like Wilson! He's better value than any of those pitchers. OK, Theo, but I don't think other teams are going to take him yet at that price. I think he'll still be available for our round 4 pick at $1.5....

Contreras started, schwarber didn't. Schwarber pinch hit for Contreras in the 4th. Anybody hear what happened to Contreras?

Don't think depth draft applies here. You get 40 picks, so you can take as many $100K college roster fills as you want any and every draft. Not much different this time, other than that This draft was college organizational/roster fillers, Kellogg, and the four $$ guys. This wasn't a spread-it-around draft; they went all in on the four top guys. After they sign Kellogg and 24 other $100K (or less) college guys, maybe if you click you hit on one of those. Sometimes a Kellogg might turn into a James Russell/Sean Marshall, and sometimes a $100K guy might turn into role player. Maybe somebody will turn into last-year's Chesny Young or better, and reach high minors or even find a big-league role. Ryan Williams has reached AA, for $5K bonus. So commanding no $$ doesn't prove you can't get to AA or perhaps beyond. Maybe Berg will be the cheap senior niche guy who finds a useful role as a Roogy, perhaps in majors someday, or else for years in minors and Indy leagues. Maybe the next CBA they'll expand the rosters, and it will be easier for a team to carry a Roogy. But every year there is chance to draft a bunch of $100K college guys, roster fillers with the hopes that one or two emerge as more. This is no different. We just went more quality-over-quantity than usual. The four $$ guys are where this draft will sink or swim, from the perspective of the major-league team. Much simpler that way than usual.

Cubs haven't signed an overslot guy after round 13 in any of the previous three drafts. Unless Wilson ends up not signing for some reason, I doubt that will change this year either. I think their $$$ was basically invested after round 4 with Wilson. Hopefully Berg or some $100-slot guy emerges eventually as a big-league contributor. Good scouting, development, and luck can sometimes get a guy for $0.1 or less. But I think this was pretty much a 4-round draft. Hopefully some of the four $$ guys work out.

That's the reputation. But, he's got 13 errors in only 41 games this year. Not a lot of 3B's that make 50 errors over a big-league season. Villanueva has always been something of a high errors guy, I think. Obviously it's only 1/3/season sample size, and he'll not sustain that rate. But while defense is much about range, making errors still is a factor.

BA's been fairly negative about his defense for a while. Also suggested that he may not really want to catch, unlike Schwarber who has seemed to want to be able to. I think it's possible that perhaps they wanted to let Zagunis establish his offensive game, and use this year to see what he can do, and see how things go with the other catchers. Will Schwarber still be a catcher after this season, or not? Will Caratini be anything, or will he be a forgotten roster-fill? Will Contreras look like a real factor, defensively and offensively? Amaya doesn't sound like his hitting is going to be enough to be a factor in the conversation. In April, Zagunis had a non-trivial K-rate, for a no-power contact hitter in A-ball. That's improved this month. I'd like more power, but .900-OPS guys, with .450-OBP, those aren't easy to find. I think it will be curious to see how he holds up for the duration of the season, and once he's gotten a full year in, what they decide to do with him going forward. Basically develop him as a utility 4th outfielder? Perhaps get him more CF work? He's supposed to be kinda fast, and certainly he's faster than Almora. But, I wonder if he has any instincts or jumps that make Almora excellent defensively? In the unlikely event that Zagunis was actually *good* defensively in center, he'd obviously look like an interesting offensive option and top-of-the-order hitter compared to Almora. Not sure how much sense it makes, given the alternatives, but my understanding is that they have had conversations internally about putting him at 2B. Not sure that's obviously that strategic as long as we're still interested in Castro/Baez/Torres, but a Biggio-esque sort of guy could be useful.

I'm going Clifton and Null. Clifton's supposed to have a very good fastball, good velocity, and my understanding is that while he has gotten bigger/stronger, he's still got some physical projection left. (Just turned 20 last week, I think.) He's been one of the best K-pitchers we've got. Got a ways to go, and control is a challenge, but he's seemed to gain consistency there. Good shot to be a top-10 guy once the season's done. Null throws strikes, scouts as having a solid fastball, and the Cubs like him a lot. We'll see how the success, and the velocity/command, sustain over a full season. Others close in my list, some of whom have already gotten votes from others, are Pineyro (when you're K'ing guys and not walking guys like he's been doing in AA, lots to like. And 92-93 velocity isn't great, but if he can really work at those velocities with control/command and a K breaking pitch, you can be a useful guy. Similar to Null, in a sense.) Contreras. and Michael Jensen.

Castro may be a good comp for Torres. *Guy who hit very well as a very young player and was able to hit through the minors and progress very fast. *Body shape may be similar, not the slender wiry types. *Neither showed much power as teenagers, or project to be power hitters. *Both looked good at SS as teenagers, but without either looking great or future-gold-gloveish flash, and with the chance they might outgrow it. *Both run fine as teenagers, but neither actually fast as teenagers, and may not run well beyond early 20's. *Both Cubs, both SS's, both undrafted. If Torres moves up through the system, fine. Needs happen, trades happen. We'll just see how good his hitting holds up, just in case his BABIP slips below .430 later in his career. Might even happen this summer!

Torres has a .463 BABIP.

Clifton and Cease.

For the small-sample moment, Hannemann's season is over .350 BA; over .400 OBP; over .450 slugging; and over .850 OPS. In AA at age 23, and with <160 games of pro experience, it's not like he's so old that he should be written off. If he just stays the same as he was last year, obviously not so promising. But his track record of mediocrity isn't long enough to disprove at least the possibility that he'll be better future than he was last year. It's early, though. Everybody goes through some streaks both hot and cold; when the hot ones come in April, it's a lot more noticeable and stats-bumping than when they come in July. Presumably he's due to cool off soon. But over these last 9 games, he's 17/39 with only 4 K's. He was a high-K guy during the first 8 games, and he K'd too much for a non-power guy last year. So this is probably a brief and misrepresentative fluke. But, sometimes guys do get better. Maybe some real and sustainable improvement is somewhat real? Would be really fun if between Clifton, Null, Hannemann, and Contreras, if a couple of their good starts were for real. Null and Clifton seem the more likely, though.

No trade value. Probably a career minor-league guy. But hitting is the hardest tool, an IF he can hit enough, you never know. Unlikely, but might make it. It's hard, though, to make it as a infield sub when you're bad defensively. For a deficit-defense guy, you really need to hit well. In that sense he might be something of a Tommy LaStella wannabe, only without the walks. (Bruno's career: 145K/6HR, 145K/52BB).

Will be interesting to see if Stinnett actually makes his start, and if so whether he throws strikes and has a good game. Of if he's maybe got some control or "yips" problems that are going to dog him. Of if his disaster last outing was because he's got an arm problem, and he won't be starting at all for a while.

Two grounders and a bunt.

13K/0BB/0HR is a rather nice profile. The beauty of small sample size, of course. But it kinds of fits both with his small-sample last summer, and his college profile. No idea what the guy has in terms of off-speed stuff, or fastball movement. (I thought he was supposed to be a 2-seam guy, but he's not been notably ground ball-oriented in these first two starts.) K/BB/control has a sort of Hendricks-ish feel. Heh heh, beauty of small sample! Hendricks did it league after league after league for four years straight, a little different from doing it for two starts in April. :) But he's interesting until sample appears to the contrary. And as for Hendricks, Null throws harder.

Tim, could you add Jeremy Null? If his start today can match his first start, I want to vote for him! :) (Jinx!) Was a control, low-walks guy in college, but had good K-rate too. Apparently pitched last college spring with an injury of some type; perhaps otherwise he'd have drafted way higher. Drafted young, so despite being a college draftee he'll pitch all this summer at age 21, so age is not against him. Tall guy, 6'7", and perhaps there's still a little more velocity projection left from last draft spring? A low 90's 2-seamer with good control, a guy can win a lot of games with that. Cubs people apparently like him a lot. For now, I'll vote Steele and Cease. Steele seems like he may be a solid control guy, and again a low-90's good control lefty can have a long career. Cease obviously has the most explosive arm we've got, pre-surgery, and reasons to think that may be true or become true again post-surg. No clue whether he'll have any control or any breaking pitches. But it's been a while since the Cubs had a real power-arm rotation prospect, so until he proves otherwise, I'm hoping he'll work out.

Control isn't a big deal with Baez and won't drive if or when he gets called up. You don't obsess over control seven years from now for players who aren't likely to be stars. He doesn't make enough contact to project as a star, so there's little reason to let 7-years-from-now-control dictate what you do with him now.

Control is a big deal for expected stars, not for JAGs. To some degree, the longer Baez continues to swing through a lot of strikes, the less meaningful the extra year of control will be. For example, I think a reasonable projection for Baez, long-term, might be as a .755-OPS guy. A .755-OPS 2B with good defense is a useful player. But it's not like resigning a .755-OPS guy would be a budget-buster; or that losing a .755-OPS guy would be a dynasty-buster. (I get the .755 using 35HR/200K/35BB in 620PA, with otherwise normal BABIP.) Heh heh, I suppose if Baez shows up in Iowa pretty soon and explodes, and builds up hopes for being much better than .755 guy, perhaps the extra year of club control would look much more significant. If I replace 35HR/200K with 45HR/180K, the calculation jumps from .755 to .851.)

McNeil 5K in 3 innings. Would be nice if he's fully healthy and has control. A HS guy taken with the 2nd pick of 3rd round was perceived as having good potential, if things went right for him. Paniagua with 6K/0BB in 3 innings. Paniagua with no walks could be a very nice pitcher.

I wonder if he's a "wait until someone gets called up and then you are in the rotation" guy. Of course, I really hope Stinnett does so well that he forces his way to MB..... I'm guessing Martinez is about #7 or so on the rotation depth chart, until perhaps Stinnett and perhaps Null and Norwood get promoted to bump him down further? That makes sense to me, he's a relative soft-tosser and probably has less ceiling than any of the other six guys at Myrtle, I'd think, or about 8 guys at SB and below. . Presumed Starting 5: Underwood Tseng Torrez Blackburn Skulina All look more promising to me, and throw harder (even Blackburn is faster than Martinez, I think, or projects to be so.) I'd also put Conway at #6, ahead of Martinez. Throws harder, and has strong control of fastball. He may just get used in relief, given that they have plenty of other rotation prospects and may not want to mess with piggy-backing in high-A. But Conway is fast, throws strikes, and can locate his fastball. Last year was his rehab year, so I'm sure they didn't let him throw full speed or throw a lot of sharp breaking balls. Usually first year back after injury a guy is very limited, and it's mostly fastballs diet. So this second year is really the potential breakout year, where the K's can go up when you put guys away with the breaking ball.

Thanks for first-hand observations, Vance. Would sure be great if Almora was able to put things together.

I wanted to give Raw, Tiger, and Duck all some support for their guys! I voted Rivero and Steele. I think I'm in a pitcher groove for a while. I'll probably be voting for guys like Zastrysny, Cease, and Torrez, maybe Clifton, Norwood, and Skulina too if they start the season strong, before I get around to any position guys like Szczur, Baez, or Candelario. I'm a big believer in the value of good relievers, so no hesitation on Rivero based on his role. I'm a big believer in the value of 4th outfielders and 5th infielders. They play. I admit for Szczur I'm still not feeling like his upside is more than a 5th outfielder. Perhaps I'm underselling him. Maybe I'm just jaded by 116 games of .626 OPS in the hitter-friendly PCL.