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craig

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Everything posted by craig

  1. craig
    Agree that Zagunis looks like an interesting prospect. Obviously no standout tools, so he's not a significant trade chip. But a guy who's consistently .400+ OBP, consistently .800+ OPS, and consistently at least .400 slugging, and who has at least a little athleticism, that's got to be a candidate to be a useful major leaguer. Got a chance to be a professional hitter. And he's still young enough that there's some chance for improvement. A little more power? A little more drive and less ground balls? Sometimes it's the best and smartest hitters who are best able to identify and adjust to minimize their flaws. This will sound dumb, but he reminds me a little of a Cardinals prospect. Seemed they often had these college players, who weren't big tools guys and were never highly rated prospects, and who didn't come up young. But when some need created an opportunity, they so often seemed to have a next-man-up who was able to play solid, professional baseball. Could imagine Zagunis having a trajectory like that.
  2. craig
    Very substantial. Once Contreras graduates, it seems Eloy and Gleyber are pretty easy 1-2 guys, in whichever order. That was some pretty smart and effective IFA work two summers ago, to get what will soon be our top two guys. Hard to match that class, but hopefully this summer's IFA class will also be really successful, too.
  3. craig
    Thanks for the clip. What do you pitching-mechanics experts think of Clifton's delivery? I have no idea, other than that it looks unusual, and possibly not very conducive to consistent control, and perhaps somewhat stressful on the arm. But I have no idea. Perhaps it's also hard for hitters to pick up? Perhaps it's hard to Clifton to throw different pitches with the same delivery, such that hitters can tell what's coming? Anyway, rather interesting and somewhat non-standard, to my super-amateur superficial impression.
  4. craig
    Thanks for the Cease info. Nice to see some flashes of control. Hopefully the consistency of control will increase as time goes by.
  5. craig
    Tom, has Kellogg always been something of a flyball guy? Do you think that if they moved him to relief, eventually, that he might be able to tick it up a little and have Travis Wood-level velocity? Does his stuff/arm-slot give him any LOOGY potential, or not much for splits?
  6. craig
    Thanks much, philosopher. Tim, I'd guess that is a somewhat slow gun. Phil said Vosler ripped the fastest pitch of the game, and that was only 92. Don't think there are ever A+ games on a normal gun where somebody isn't going higher than that. And it seems those speeds are also relative, in the order we'd expect: Farris But clearly doesn't indicate that either Stinnett or McNeil are especially fast.
  7. craig
    Yeah, Contreras is a terrific prospect. After last season, some wondered whether the hitting was for real. That Q has been answered. How good the defense and will become remains a question, but he's a really, really good prospect. After last season, some wondered whether Almora's 2nd-half hitting rebound was for real. That Q too seems to have been answered favorably. (Although the up-tick in walk rate has been soundly disproven.) He's a really, really good prospect. Tom is totally correct, Edwards has shown dominant stuff from start to finish. Perhaps more dominant since relief conversion than had ever been true before. The K/HR profile is remarkably good. Tom's point is also true, I think, that while his control has never been good, it was never really awful until last year. We'll see how it goes as the season progresses. He's had 12 games this year, 5 of his 7 walks have come in two of them. He's a really really good relief prospect. I think it's very plausible to envision him blossoming into a guy on the Strop or Grimm level, perhaps even a little bit better depending on how his control goes. Or perhaps like the good version of Carlos Marmol, or perhaps even a shade better. Very, very good prospect. Each of those guys has a lot of good, each has a question or two (Contreras defense; Almora walks/power; Edwards walks.) We're fortunate to have all three of them.
  8. craig
    Also take a look at Jason Vossler. He's been the best hitter on the team all season, with a .900+ OPS and .400+ OBP, and a 1:1 BB/K rate. He's 22 all season, so age is fine. I think the Cubs staff like him. I'm curious what his defensive capacity is. So if you could give any impressions of his defensive arm, or whether he looks like he has size for any OK power. (He hit 10 HR's last year, but only 1 this year. His BABIP is quite hit this year, like .389; after being really probably flukishly low last year.) From the pitching, any gun numbers or impressions about Stinnett would be really helpful, he's a possibly significant prospect. Some of the relievers also are worth watching. James Farris has 26K/6BB/19IP, and a 0.93 ERA. He was very good for South Bend last year as well, so he might be a real pitcher. Daury Torrez and Ryan McNeil also quite interesting, both have gotten some high-velocity reports, and Torrez some low-arm-slot talk. Would be fun to get your impressions, if either of them pitch. Hope you get a good game and get to see Stinnett at his best!
  9. craig
    He's matched last year's HR output. 3 each year.
  10. craig
    I voted Clifton and Blackburn. Wouldn't it be fun to combined Blackburn's command with Clifton's stuff? :) Hannemann is hitting .240 thus far, a little below his career average of .245, and he's never been much of a power guy. Not sure he's got enough bat to be all that exciting.
  11. craig
    Maybe add this guy to the poll! From CubsDen "17 year old Jose Albertos was the most impressive pitcher on the day, sitting at 94 and flashing a plus curve. Albertos has been tough to hit but what made the difference today was exceptional command as he struck out the side in order.".
  12. craig
    That's not good. Odd that they pulled Stinnett after only 54 pitches. Thornton has been starting, so maybe he's missed starts and they want to get him some innings, or something? Stinnett's continued to have the ground ball thing going, and his ERA is now down below 2. Small sample, obviously, but seems pretty different from last year. It's a different world when you throw strikes!
  13. craig
    Stinnett and Clifton, in that order. Clifton probably a somewhat better arm, but Stinnett at present is showing hints of developing the command the Cubs envisioned for him when they drafted him. Clifton is showing the stuff we hoped he'd develop, but he's still really, really wild. Three years younger. All wild pitchers were 21 once, and most wild young guys are wild forever, but perhaps with time he'll be able to develop some control of his breaking stuff.
  14. craig
    Thanks, Duke. Super reports, love the detail! Really helpful. Too bad on Eddy. Very encouraging on PJ, though, that he looks athletic. The positives on his catcher defense, as a very new, inexperience catcher convert, is really fun. That he looks as good as his batting line shows is also fun. And very encouraging that Eloy looks (and sounds) legit. Thanks so much for being willing to put so many of your observations into words. Love it.
  15. craig
    Thanks, Duke. Glad that Kellogg could nip 90 once in a while. Tom, what's the difference between arm strength and velocity? I admit I don't quite understand the distinction. So, a guy can have a stronger arm but throw slower? How is that, and why does the stronger guy throw slower? And what advantage does the stronger arm have if it doesn't result in being able to throw as fast? I'm guessing sustainability; maybe the stronger armed Kellogg-Sands can hold their 88 mph longer, whereas a faster guy will be lose his velocity after the pitches pile up? Does the extra arm strength for the slower guy have a harder breaking ball?
  16. craig
    This Almora bit hitting HR's, slugging .550+, OPSing .950+, OBP'ing at .400, is pretty fun. Very fun. Hope he can keep it up, wow. Hanneman is up to .796 OPS, despite his low BABIP. Ryan Kalish is going crazy for Iowa, as good as Contreras, Almora, and Vogelbach have been, Kalish has done better than any of them. Tom, if Steele has less arm strength than Sands, who barely touches 90-91 only occasionally, then Steele isn't much of a prospect. Oh well, couldn't really expect to hit on all three of Sands/Steele/Cease. If Cease works out well, you're still beating the odds.
  17. craig
    Yeah, if he's got a bad fastball and throws high bad fastballs, that's a problem. If he's not fast enough, that's a problem. Those could be two show-stopper problems for him, if he's both slow and high. Still, hard to imagine he's as slow as Kellog or Sands. If he's just an 88-90 soft-toss finesse guy like Sands, Steele's obviously not much of a prospect. O well, you win some, you lose some.
  18. craig
    I doubt getting killed in the 1st and 2nd innings is really a function of his size or getting tired. Will be interesting to read what Duke has to say about him. That PJ Higgins cat is trying to do the Chesny Young bit, except he's a catcher. He's got another couple of hits, and his OBP is well into the high .400's now. Hanneman with his 4th HR already, and a couple of hits. I believe his OPS is now up around or over .800, and that's despite having a lousy BABIP. His BB/K ratio is way better thus far. That would be so awesome if he turned into a real thing.
  19. craig
    I'm picking from Clifton, Stinnet, Steele and Blackburn here. Going with Clifton and Stinnett. Looks like Wilson is running away with it. I'm kind of cautious on him, because although it's a small sample, he seems to be about 1-for-20 in extended spring training based on Phil's reports. Turns 20 in October, so he's not super young, really.
  20. craig
    Small nitpick, but Happ is 21, not 22. It's going to be interesting to see how he progresses this year. Including the K-rate. I'm hoping is settles down some, and that he doesn't have a couple of 4-K nights every month. Nothing is ever safe with high-K prospects, I don't think. Still, there is considerable intrigue with a guy who is 1.000+ OPS with power and massive OBP at age 21.
  21. craig
    Just to raise another whacky some-aspects-comp for Chesny: Juan Pierre! (Without the speed or CF defense....) Over his career, Juan Pierre hit .295 with IsoP of .066. Averaged 1 HR per season, and averaged 5 singles per XBH. That's the kind of singles ratio that Chesny might have. Pierre had a 6% K-rate. Almost inconceivable that Young could K that little, but basically that's the type of low-K mostly-singles contact profile that Young has. Obviously three massive differences: 1. Pierre was really fast and a prolific base-stealer. Huge advantage Pierre. 2. Pierre played CF. Huge advantage Pierre. 3. Young walks much more. (Pierre's K-rate was astonishingly low, but his walk rate was even lower.) Advantage Chesny.
  22. craig
    That's awesome, Duke. We'll look forward to some good scouting reports from you on these guys!
  23. craig
    Typing/grouping/comping players is fun and helpful. But not all low-power contact-hitters are quite the same. Not all utility-guys are the same. *If Darwin Barney (career .246 BA, .295 OBP) had been a .300-hitter with .360+ OBP, he'd have made a mint. *2008 Theroit, with the .387 OBP, was a really, really valuable player. The 2009 version with the .343 OBP, and the subsequent career Theriot who never was higher than .323, was a very different player. *If Chesny is a .320-OBP guy, that's one thing; if he can be be a .360+ OBP guy, different story. Same with defense. LaStella is a utility player, but he's more OK than good at 2B or 3B. Not sure whether Chesny is likely to exceed the LaStella level defensively. If he could achieve the prime Zobrist level defensively, while OBP'ing at .350+, you've got a very usable utility player. I've heard 2nd hand that McLeod himself, before the season, envisioned Chesny as a LaStella type, with better speed and defense, but less power.
  24. craig
    After 17 K's, Eddy Martinez drew his first walk today. Jiminez average is up pretty high now. Torres is young, and the season is early, and he's been anti awful for the last ten games or whatever. Still, he's been a high-level K-guy last year as well, this is nothing new or anomalous. And, while saying he's K'd in bunches before is true, it isn't totally encouraging. The concept was that for a teenager, all bad things were forgiven because being so young he's expected to improve. That he's come back and been lots worse 2nd half than first last year, and much worse this April than last summer, is not the improvement trajectory we were looking for. Fortunately, lots of time ahead. Ironic perhaps that BABIP has bitten him. Last year his high batting average was built on BABIP; for a guy with so many K's and so few HR's last year, his BA was flukey high, built on BABIP. Now the BABIP has swung opposite direction. Caratini, for the moment, has OPS up to .801. Nice progress. Hope he can sustain and improve for a while, and slip in a few XBH semi-regularly. Young is a fun freak; How many guys are slugging well over .500, even while >80% of their hits are singles?
  25. craig
    yeah, he's been pretty amazing. 14BB/5K, that's pretty remarkable. His BB/K ratio has improved each season as he's been getting promoted. Kind of crazy. We talk about contact hitters, but haven't seen this kind of thing before. A RH LaStella with less power but better speed and defense? His career OPB is now over .400, his OPS over .800, and thus far no hint that advanced pitching is going to take him down. A LaStella who could better handle multiple positions defensively could be a really interesting utility guy.
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