craig

Arguello said he'd been told Pierce Johnson threw his between-starts throwing session. If he was able to do that, good sign; if he came through that clean, maybe he won't miss any starts. Hopefully he'll be the guy tonight. Pleased to see Tseng listing to start, after his injury. Hope he's fine, and he really does make the start. Well, hopefully he'll pitch effectively, too. twomey started instead of Alzolay, given up four runs through the first two innings.

A guy on Arguello's site attended the Tennessee game yesterday, in which Markey, Black and Conway pitched. he said the Birmingham gun was probably slow, but that of those three Conway was the only one of the three who hit 90 on the stadium gun. Said Markey maxed at 88 on the gun. Not sure what to make of that. Black has consistently gotten scouting for being a hard thrower. If that is premise, and Conway is faster, and Markey is about as fast, and Markey was hitting 88 when even Black wasn't hitting 90, then I suppose we could reason that if Markey and Conway are as fast or faster than Black, that they've got plenty of velocity. Or, perhaps it means that Black for yesterday was not throwing as hard as usual. Perhaps he's cut way back in hopes of controlling the ball, who knows. I just though it was interesting, because I assumed Black would be a couple of mph faster than the other guys.

John Arguello said that x-rays (I think it was x-rays) on Johnson came out negative.

Interesting pitching day. None of Clifton, Kellogg, or Skulina are especially strong prospects, all three guys are kind of on the bubble. But any of those three could emerge as variably meaningful prospects if they could put something good together for a while. Clifton has always been wild, but his stuff still seems like potentially as good as anybody we've got other than Cease; if he could put it together and locate, he could easily climb into our top 10. Skulina's health and velocity and control have always been kind of inconsistent; but I'm still curious about how good and perhaps how fast he might be if he could stay healthy the rest of the year. Tom's guy Kellogg, finesse lefties can survive, and he's still not so old that perhaps some adjustment here or there and maybe he could still end up emerging with reasonable, functionally useful fastball velocity. Hopefully all three can do well tonight.

What have you done lately, baby! Dewees and Hudson. Dewees is a center fielder' can really run; has only 2 K's in 28 AB; gets two hits a day; is slugging .821; has a solid walk rate and more walks than K's; has 6 XBS in 7 games; and is doing all of that in cold Midwest April when hitting is usually really hard. Being just a flat-out good hitter is the hardest and rarest of all baseball tools, and it appears he may have that rare tool. Doing that while being a good runner with good command of the strike zone, and being able to play center, even if probably at an unexceptional level, seems pretty valuable. I know, it's small sample. But true-blue hitters are hard to find. The smart and scouting-thorough Cubs used a high 2nd pick and substantially superslotted him ($1.7M at $1.29 slot, basically paying late-first-round money). He is basically doing and being exactly, plus more, than what the Cubs hoped/envisioned for him when they spent that much to get him. Everybody figured the Cubs would pick pitching in 2nd round and after. That they both took Dewees and superslotted (at the expense of saving for pitching $$ later) suggests they really scouted Dewees as a strong-and-obvious best-player-available, too-good-to-pass. If they scouted him that well before, and he's playing this well now, seems kind of easy to slip him into our top 16. Hudson is already as fast as Steele and faster than any other lefties (Sands, Kellogg, Twomey.) At 18 he's got way more velocity-improvement projection than the 21- and 22-year old lefties like Sands or Kellogg. He's already got a better curve than any of them. Seems fairly easy for me to put the high-ceiling kid with already superior stuff, and the chance to end up much, much, much superior, ahead of the others.

Arguello said that Blackburn has been 88-92 all camp. A well-controlled low-90's ground ball sinker doesn't sound very jazzy, and doesn't score many K's. Will be interesting how his velocity holds up or evolves as the season plays out, and to see whether his control can be consistent enough to sustain the kinds of success he's had in his first two starts. (1 run combined.) With him, the concern has often been about the velocity or lack thereof. But, I think the curve is really a big factor, too. If you can throw low strikes all day with your fastball, even if it isn't fast, you can either get quick outs or get to a lot of 2-strike counts. If you can put guys away with a consistent good curveball, some K's could be there, most K's are on breaking stuff not fastballs anyway. Would be fun to see him stay healthy, to have velocity that really is often comfortably and controllably in the 90-92 range with sink, and to see the curve sharp enough and consistent enough so that he K's people reasonably often. Obviously he's faster than hendricks, but for Hendricks having that killer change is really what makes his game work. If Blackburn's curve could become a killer pitch like that, Blackburn could be effective somewhat like Hendricks is.

I went Hudson and Steele. Clifton, Dewees, and Zagunis are other in my group around this area. I can certainly see the validity of choosing Zagunis. Guys who can hit and get on base, run well and play decent defense, have a good chance to spend time in the majors.

This is the wrong day, but saw Arguello notes. He said in the Carson Sands start he was getting it up to 89-90. That seems consistent with the camp reports from Arguello and Az Phil, mostly in the 87-90 range. We'll see how that goes. Obviously a lot of guys are kind of psyched for their opening day, so with adrenalin and stuff they can throw harder than they'll sustain later. Others, in cold April you don't want to overdo it, and perhaps once the weather warms up and they are good and stretched out better they will throw a little harder. But for now, he doesn't seem to throw as hard as he did in his HS days.

Dewees has 2 K's in 25 AB. .680 slugging thus far. Very nice. Not likely to play July in South Bend. Rashad Crawford is also off to a hot start, .381, with power and walks. His career has been on a favorable developmental trajectory, and I recall Arguello commenting on how he seemed notably bigger/stronger this spring, poised for a breakout with more power than before. (Hit only 4 HR last year.) I tend to get him mixed up with the other CFer, Trey Martin; is Crawford also supposed to be a smooth long-strider good-defense CFer? Or was that just Martin and Crawford not notable defensively? He's a massive K-guy, though, and has started off K'ing at his habitual high rate. So, doubt he's going to turn into anything.

You are smarter than me, Duke! :D But I will admit that **I** thought there might be some power, and the yes-or-no on that question would significantly impact his possible career. *At time of draft, there was talk of mid-teens HR's. *A couple of years ago when he opened AFL and bashed a long HR in one of first games, there was talk of projected power. *When he hit 7 HR's in 89 games in Daytona starting the season as a 19-year old, I thought that with some maturation and man-power, that aiming for teens-HR's was a possibility. *Over his career, as a very young player, he's averaged .129 ISO. *During his hot streak late last season, he was higher than that, maybe .200 ISO or something? *I think there was the argument that his ISO was modest because he was swinging at pitchers pitches because he's such a contact guy; and that if he becomes more selective he'd swing at pitches he could drive. Implicit is the concept that perhaps he would drive more balls and boost his ISO as a result. *Theo was talking up how much stronger-looking he looked in camp this year. Implicit was the suggestion that he might hit with a little higher ISO as a result. So, I think the concept has been that for at least some people, myself included (naive as that may be), that he's hit for some decent power. 13 HR and .150 ISO? If he was a 13-HR guy with .280/.330/.430 slash, and outstanding CF defense, that would be a very, very valuable player. If he's .250 batting average with .330 slugging, that's a very different story altogether. We'll see. As Tom rightly notes, if he's got no ISO, big league pitchers will have no fear and will not walk him much. We'll see how things go as this year plays out. I'd like to see him reach 10 HR's and ISO over .150 in the PCL.

Caratini, he's running away with this one already. Heh heh, we can shut down #14 and open #15 already! I gave my 2nd vote to Hudson. I'm kind of a guy who values control. cease, Clifton, Stinnett, these pitchers with control problems I wonder how consistent they'll ever be able to get. Hudson's early sample profile seems to be a guy who can throw strikes; that combined with a filthy curve and perhaps a high-level fastball give interesting possibilities; but with control perhaps a not-so-low floor as well.

Tennessee loses game, 5-4, despite outhitting 15-7. Candelario not surprisingly is having a slow start in AA, Smokies got the first two guys on in the 9th, but Candelario hit into DP and McKinney K'd to end it. Other team got their last two runs by bunching a walk by Black, two walks by Acevedo, an error (Penalver), and a stolen base around a single single.

Tennessee tied 3-3 in the 7th. I love these morning games that I can check during lunch. Tseng with 4 K's during 3 shutout innings before getting lifted. ""Mobile Top of the 4th Kevin Cron singles on a sharp ground ball to third baseman Jeimer Candelario, deflected by pitcher Jen-Ho Tseng." Then pitching change. Chesny Young, with another HR, he leads the Cubs system with 2HR. Corey Black has amazingly gone 1.1 innings without a single walk.

Sure would be nice if he had a good year, could be the lead potential swing arm. Anybody know who will start for SB tomorrow? It's got to be between Morrison and Kellogg. Morrison. Kellogg is their #5 starter.

Stinnett 4 perfect innings in his opener, 6K/5GO/1FO. Nice start.

Phil said Null fell behind, got started late with some arm something or other, but expected him to be back fairly soon to take over as 5th starter for Myrtle beach. He had an interesting note on Maples: That Maples throws the same 94 that he did after signing, that despite years of work and maturation and stuff, and injuries, that he's never lost any velocity to the injuries nor gained any from maturation and workouts and delivery optimization and stuff. But Phil said that Maples' fastball has zero deception. I recall early on the thought that he had a really "heavy" fastball, and would be a ground ball machine. Phil's take was that his fastball is bad, and since he's afraid his fastball will get killed he nibbled or throws off the plate with that and gets behind a lot.

Tom, Phil's roster listing has Jordan Brink with rehab group. So whatever his arm problems, they appear to have recurred.

4th starters are Sands, Leal, Skulina, and Pierce Johnson, according to Az Phil. http://www.thecubreporter.com/04042016/baez-and-victorino-action-riverview#comment-form Skulina has apparently been behind, for whatever reason. I'm assuming for South bend the other four starters will come from Steele, Morrison, Kellogg, Twomey, and Alzolay. I wonder if they'll piggy-back a couple of them, or if not which works relief? Or maybe Norwood will do some rotation work, too? Anybody know or want to guess 5th starter for myrtle? I'm assuming Stinnett, Martinez, and Clifton, although even there you never know; perhaps Martinez is reaching the point where they decide to move him to relief. Arguello says Torrez is moving to relief. If so, that leaves one open spot, between the Zach Hedges, Ihrig, Thorpe types. I'm curious how Ryan McNeil will do this year, another year out from the surgery now, and throwing fairly hard into the mid 90's. I have a secret and unrealistic hope that he'll be in the rotation, having built up his arm strength and workload last year, but I don't think that's going to happen. Good relievers are invaluable, and can emerge unexpectedly, so if a cat like McNeil, Torrez, Garner, or Norwood, or Conway emerging, or Maples mysteriously finding some control, or Paniagua mysteriously finding control, or Acevedo mysteriously finding some control, that would be cool. Wildman-ultra Black is presumably beyond any chance to ever find some control, but I suppose if I'm entertaining ridiculous wildman-mysteriously-finding-some-control dreams, I guess I could throw Black into that pool too. Heh heh, if I'm going ridiculous enough to imagine Black having a clue where his fastball is going, then I suppose I might as well add Scott Frazier to my list as well! :)

Of those names, the following are the new signees? All position players. INF Aramis Ademan, OF Jonathan Sierra OF Abraham Rodriguez SSF Yonathan Perlaza

Thanks for all the info, friends. Very fun, very encouraging. Albertos as a 94-mph $1.5, that's very cool. Perez as a tall power conversion guy who's already gaining consistency, that's very cool. Two $1.25 catchers, that's hopeful. >$18 spent from those notes, at well over $30M given the tax, and perhaps still the possibility that there may be more who still sign, or that they don't know about, that's cool too. INteresting to have a couple of $$ guys from Mexico, and interesting that despite seeming to pull out from Venezuela, they still got three Venezuelan kids on that list.

I think when the Cubs farmed Candelario they assigned him to Tennessee. Is that just a procedural formality, and has no bearing on where he'll start? I assumed that meant he'd actually start at Tennesse.

Those 12 add up to $16.6. Almost all is above the tax line, so that's got to be $30-million in actual costs for those 12 guys alone. May not be done, but even if they are, we can hardly complain that they've been cheap. Hopefully the scouting was wise and some of the $$ turns into actual big-league value players.

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/03/beyond-contreras-and-candelario-20-cubs-prospects-on-the-rise/#image/20 Really nice ARguello piece on 20 guys who could be "on the rise." Includes guys who aren't on lots of the main lists, and includes lots of recent spring-camp views.

According to Az Phil, Brink got sent down to XST already.

Looks like Eddy's got this one, with DelaCruz lined up to make it as #12.