craig

Yes, thanks for these writeups. Fun to read and to think about these prospects again. With the Cubs prospects supply approaching very low ebb, it's so crucial for the development process to get some real development from guys who are not top prospects. We're kinda used to living off a lot of highly drafted prospects (all of the 2015 guys were top-10 type picks plus $30-million Soler), or serious trades (PCA, Caissie, Alcantara, Brown). I'm not expecting any top-15 picks in the years ahead, nor any serious trade-deadline-sell deals that add serious prospects in. So really important to be able to get good major leaguers from our own draft picks; from picks outside of round one; and from our IFA work. Would be so cool to get some conversions on some of the 16-20 types. Southisene does get stronger and drives a decent share of doubles and triples, and is not overpowered in A+ or AA. I'm not expecting him to hit HR's, but if he traded Nico's handful of HR's for a lot more walks, you could get a really good player. Cabada, what if he does get somewhat stronger and he's just a true-blue hitter with enough strength and leverage to hit 15+ HR's? What if Florentino did add several more MPH; could get at least into or a little above the Shota/Taillon velocity world, with control; somehow makes some tweaks to improve his fastball spin/ shape; but does sustain a killer slider? Wouldn't it be cool for a control-artist with a putaway pitch make it work? What if Zombro does get some more velo from Reid, and his stuff is just fine? What if Erian settles in at AA, has a fully-healthy-all-year season, and more command and consistency come with experience at Knoxville? During the Cardinals long stretch of winning, it seemed like they had a way of developing guys who were 5-tool top-100 prospects, but somehow creating a bunch of capable support-players and next-man-up. Could be so fun if the Cubs could create some good-value assets from the Reids and Cabadas and Southisenes and Florentinos of the world. Hoping hoping hoping!

While Rojas's hitting has been good early, his throwing has been awful. I watched pieces of a couple of the games, and I saw three awful throws, Az Phil mentioned that he actually had a 4th bad throw too. Has he always been Burl Callaway, or is this something new? Hopefully something fluky that will get worked out. Seems like he didn't extend his arm at all on his throws. The one throw was up the 1B line into the baserunner's path, and he got poor Jonathon Long's elbow ripped off. Long was writhing in pain, I hope it won't be real serious, but I won't be surprised if Rojas will cost Long's elbow pretty dearly.

That's really interesting observation. Tweaks like that can make a big difference.

Oh, I'm sure they like Moises' bat, not questioning that at all. I'm just saying that Cubs wanted Cabrera (younger, big-arm, 3 years of club-control) more than Framber Valdez at his age and price. Cubs wanted Cabrera. Marlins want Caissie, not Moises. Trade done. Guessing that if Marlins had said they'd only trade Cabrera for Moises instead, the Cubs would have traded Moises instead. I don't think the trade really says anything about how much the Cubs liked Moises versus Caissie. One can argue on other grounds which you think they may have preferred. But I don't think the trade says anything at all about it. Marlins wanted Caissie, so Cubs gave them Caissie. Nothing more complicated than that.

I think it was 100% Cubs wanting Cabrera and Marlins wanting Caissie. I don't think it says anything, 0%, about how the Cubs ranked Caissie versus Moises.

Interesting perspective from Hottovy. We'll see, sometimes things take time. And sometimes some failure is a good motivator for making changes that can help. I wonder if there has been any consideration to dropping his arm slot a few degrees, and whether that might benefit some pitch shape, fastball included? With Taillon, Shota, and Boyd all expiring, I admit I kinda like the concept of Brown continuing to try to develop at Iowa, and staying in the rotation consideration. We don't know who's going to emerge. The crazy optimist in me is imagining a scene where Horton and Wiggins both emerge as high-end-stuff starters, Cabrera be solid; and then between Brown, Assad, and Wicks, maybe you could maybe tweak one (or more) of those guys into capable back-end starters. Getting some development so that Brown and/or Wicks could be functional starters would be very helpful.

Agree, I'd assume Az.

Agree, Ramirez seems high to me. I'm guessing Kiley likes Ramirez more than some of us, and sees some potential growth in power, maybe? To me, he seems to project as a singles-hitting 2b/3B utility guy. But if Kiley projects him to 8-14 HR-type power, then maybe you could have a good starter? Will be interesting if he can add some HR's and doubles at Iowa. Would be really fun if he could. I wonder if "prospect fatigue" maybe gets overused as an excuse? Easy to dismiss down-ranking Alcantara as "oh, it's just prospect fatigue." But maybe he's down-ranked because contact problems with his long swing are not perceived as correctible, by Kiley?

I'd guess no? Cabada would be more possible, since he's a kinda balanced, controlled hitter, more likely to be able to stay competitive. Tomas definitely not; he hit .186 in the DSL, with 42K/113AB/1HR. With contact challenges like that, I think one step to Mesa will be challenging enough. He'll need some patience.

I'm hoping that Little is not the first to get de-rostered. I'm hoping that with another year since his injury, that his velocity will be back (or maybe better) than last year, maybe even faster than 2024. Obviously he's never going to be a control artist. But his K-stuff and anti-HR groundball profile looked so good, I'd hate to give up this quickly. Thinking there are enough other guys to de-roster ahead of him. Some guys I'd de-roster ahead of Little: Justin Dean Ben Cowles Gavin Hollowell Ethan Roberts Ryan Rolison I'm guessing 1 or 2 will end up getting derostered. But I'm hoping that Little isn't, and that he develops back into a really interesting lefty relief option.

That would be really nice to click on one (or more) of the 11-20 picks. Bullpen excellence is so valuable, would be super cool if Williams clicked. Or Spencer. Or Knapp, all of those three are 24 (Williams) or 25.

Yeah, two issues. One is how guys might stack on a farm-ranking next year, the other is how the guy might eventually produce. Southisene might become an interesting player eventually, but he's certainly not going to factor on any ranking lists or anything. As long-term prospects, agree that Hartshorn, Wing, and Cabada might become very valuable guys eventually. Hartshorn might end up becoming really good power/contact hitter. But I don't imagine those three are going to factor much into media rankings? Guys playing rookie-ball in Mesa don't fly into top-100's. I don't think Lumpuy will get anywhere, hope I'm wrong. But that K-rate against bad low-A pitching, that's probably prohibitive. One forgotten guy who I still have hopes for is Triantos. I think he might raise his status a little still, into a possible big-league super-utility guy. Utility prospect will never approach top-100 again, nor factor in whether the Cubs system can rank up into top-20. But I do think he might boost his hitting this year. He was variably hurt again last season; I'm hoping coming in fully healthy might help, and simple reversion-to-mean might help. Sometimes failure is drives some new adjustments. Maybe he's just hit his ceiling, which isn't enough. But I'm hoping that he'll bump his power game and pull-in-air a bit. Bump his plate discipline and boost his walks some. Bump up to a .300/.350/.450 Iowa-level guy, or better. An .800-ish Iowa hitter is nothing special. But in a world where Hoerner might walk or Shaw might get traded for good value after the season, perhaps next year Triantos might look ready to become a useful super-utility guy.

Some of this discussion reflects how super-significant Conrad will be. If he explodes, and kinda comes out of the season as a strong top-100 guy, maybe a top-50, in a sense that could kind of replace the Caissie-Moises type guys we've had in recent top-100's. But if Conrad struggles, it could be really hard to backfill.

Who might be some guys you might imagine as candidates to jump in value? Including some guys who aren't going to jump into "star" level, but who might just improve into decent chance to be a useful major leaguer? Wiggins and Alcantara obviously. Wiggins could be star, and if healthy Alcantara could somehow sustain or improve on his 2nd-half hitting, he's still got a chance to become a good starter, maybe even for us. Southisene. Obviously no power => no star. But 2nd half, had a >,450 OBP, .800-ish OPS, 24/4 SB/CS, >1 BB/K, and hit up near .300. That was crummy A- pitching,, so he might get devoured by South Bend level pitching. But a lot of boys get stronger at age 20; maybe his bat speed and power will grow a little bit, and he'll add some doubles and triples? I think his defense was supposed to be good? Would love to see a super OBP/SB guy. Mathis: Was bad last year, and K'd too much;, but was first year and was variably hurt. What if he shows up healthy, and actually shows a really good power bat? Would love to see his bat look good. Kepley. I don't think most posters like him much. I kinda see Kepley and Southisene as similar guys, short BA/BB OBP guys who steal a lot, and are hopefully both really good defensively. Kepley's a little older and stronger, scouts suggest he's got some anti-awful exit-velo and may hit some XBH. But yeah, what if he can just carry the >.280BA, >.380 slug, and >.400 OBP right up through South Bend and into Knoxville? .400-OBP guys with lots of steals and great defense, that could be a valuable guy. Rojas obviously wildcard. Was awful at Knox, but what if with a fresh start, some physical improvement, and some skills improvements, what if he could kinda bring his South Bend hitting up to Knoxville? Neely: what if velocity was back, health was back, and he found some control, and looked Iowa dominant again? Won't help the prospect rankings, because if so he'll just graduate. But would be fun to see his actual big-league value pop. Erian Rodriguez. Not mentioned often, but has a pretty good arm, and may still have a little fill-out physical projection left? What if his curve and change got more consistent, so that his K-rate could jump? Could be a guy who's rated much higher after the season than he is now? Super-longshots: Florentino, Gray, Mule. Florentino, slim guy without big velo, so hasn't gotten much scouting buzz. But sometimes skinny guys at 20 fill out and get stronger, and maybe he's still got some more velocity in him? *IF* suddenly he could tweak his fastball and get both more velo AND more movement, who knows? Athletic command pitchers with deception can just be good pitchers, who knows? Lets get lucky. Mule, another year from surgery, maybe with some physical maturation he can get his velocity back? More healthy, more fastball, maybe he can throw some strikes and improve fast? Drew Gray, injured is injured, wild is wild, so chances are probably remote. But what if he was and stayed healthy for a while, maybe a healthy Gray could jack up the stuff, and might repeat his delivery enough to locate better and finally emerge as a real prospect? I'm also kinda Jerzembeck interested. What if he's actually healthy, and actually is a pretty good pitcher with good stuff?

Should probably drop near 30th by end of season, no? Moises will graduate; probably Wiggins will either graduate or bust; and likewise Alcantara should either graduate or bust. Ranking could be *really* low. But as Kiley mentions, if guys are productively graduating and become good contributors, or else are getting traded for good value (Alcantara, perhap?), that doesn't reflect poorly on the D+D. But yeah, it sure would be nice to see some breakouts to up value. Conrad, lets go!

Agree. Getting close enough to average to become a #2 catcher doesn't seem out of reach. Like the >20HR thing, not safe to happen; but neither is out of reach.

Good comp. Naylor has averaged 22 HR over the last 4 years.

Yes, that was a succinct capture (beyond just the piece I pasted.) The "above-average raw power" is one hinge. "raw" and "in-game" power aren't the same. A groundball oppo-hitter, will he pull-in-air often enough to actually hit volume HR's? >20 HR contact hitter (with walks) is a value DH; 12-HR hitting into lot of DP's not? 2nd hinge is the difference between 3rd vs 2nd catcher. 2nd catcher catches a lot; 3rd doesn't.

The variance in rankings is a reminder of how different orgs can value guys somewhat differently. Cubs pitching thinks Cabrera has this huge ceiling; does anybody else see him that way, or more a guy with some good stuff but no control and a bad fastball? Marlins seem to love Caissie; guessing some orgs don't. Heh heh, maybe out there somewhere there's an org who loves Alcantara like Law does, and would value him a lot in a trade? Or, maybe if he was part of an organization, the other scouts would talk him down from Alcantara! Who knows. I admit I hope Cubs end up with some decent backup OF, and Kevin goes back to Iowa again. Had the hernia last year, I wonder if that wasn't a factor for a while and he played through it? We can say 8th year pro, but he was 16 when he started, Covid, injuries, took him 4 years to reach Myrtle. So he's really had 4 years above rookie, which normally for good players is plenty. But maybe more to learn and figure out when you're so tall, and perhaps when your English isn't very good so coaching may be slower to click? He's obviously been an extreme groundball guy. MLB Cubs were good at pull-in-air, but Kevin hasn't achieved that yet. But what if somehow he could get better at pull-in air, and he started hitting more in-game HR's, to match his BP power? Probably not: after 4 years in full-season, and having such a tall, long swing, he's probably just never going to be a good big-league hitter with big-league HR volume. But just in the off chance that he maybe could figure out how to pull the ball in the air over the left-field fence more frequently, I support one more developmental lots-of-AB-in-Iowa opportunity. Sometimes improbable things work for organizations that have success. (WS Cubs, two years earlier what would the odds have been that Hendricks and Arrieta would both be great? Sometimes, getting lucky with some unusual development happens). I'd just like to see Kevin get one more chance at regular AB's, and see if he can crank up his HR output, which would crank up all of his BA/OBP/slugging/OPS numbers, and could make him look like a value starter.

Injuries controls everything, of course. In the hypothetical with zero injuries, there is one single spot between: Assad, Brown, Hodge, and the non-rosters.

Agree. Alcantara in Iowa is one day away. If you both kept Austin and added Andujar, Shaw would need to be your on-roster CF for a few innings if PCA gets hurt. Shaw is fast, and CF is the easiest OF spot to learn. (Easier to read balls and get jumps; less issues with balls slicing.). He might be fine as in-game backup CF. And maybe he'll be good enough that PCA could get a matchup day off now and then against tough lefties.

I'm higher on Conrad. Guessing I'm always high on first-rounders who haven't shown any hint of failure yet, higher than other posters. Conrad ahead of Alcantara, Rojas, and Long for me, and Caissie. (I likewise ranked Cam ahead of Alcantara/Caissie before the Tucker trade.) I often ask myself who I'd more resist losing in trade. Often changes once a guy plays for a couple of months, when limitations often manifest.

Made me look back at CAstro. Not sure if ages were true back in his era, but he never didn't hit. He was hitting around .300 in A+ and AA, slugging around .400, at age 19. At age 20, slugging .569 at AA before getting called up to Cubs already at age 20, where he hit .300 and slugged over .400. Man, was he ever an exciting prospect-for-age guy. Never had any windows like Rojas at Knoxville, that's for sure. Gleyber never didn't hit, either. He demolished AA when he was Rojas's age. Rojas OPS was in the .400's, at same age Gleyber at 20 in AA was almost .900.

Better yet, maybe let him be both hyped, but also vindicate it over time? :):). Will be interesting to see how he hits this upcoming summer. But he could be a guy who just really is a good hitter, and who will move fast and be trade-value by this summer? Or be in the mix for helping replace Happ next spring? I don't really see any individual Cubs prospect likely to look like a compelling Happ-replacement, individually. But maybe some collection of guys might provide enough hope to let that position go without spending a chunk of budget on it? In my ideal dreamworld: Conrad comes in pretty healthy, and looks great. Hits for contact, controls the strikes zone, shows serious power potential in pros? Maybe he's not quite ready to totally entrust the starting job to, but maybe he looks like a future asset starter, maybe even a star? Alcantara gets to go back to Iowa, He's been a 12-17 HR guy, not really a bomber. But perhaps he's fully healthy, he gets some focus on pull-in-air, he doesn't have his long slow-start deal; and suddenly last year's 17HR jumps to 25+ HR's, and he looks like he's got enough slug to make up for the swing-and-miss? Last year, he was .818OPS at Iowa, decent but not exactly big-league-starter-ready. But if I take 8 groundouts from last year and replace them with 8 HR's, and keep all the other numbers unchanged: suddenly he'd be .287/.370/.554. A .924-OPS guy with his defense and speed, he'd be way back up into everybody's top-100. And he might be worth a good opportunity in Happ-replacement world? (Or Seiya). Kepley was .488 OBP for Myrtle. What if he rolls .420-OBP's up through South Bend, and then is still .400-OBP at Knoxville, plus with 50 steals? Perhaps Hoyer could figure not sure how going to camp after lockout without Happ will look. But maybe between Conrad, Kepley, and Alcantara, he can figure it might shake out pretty OK? Plus, if the lockout runs well into the season, perhaps Conrad and Kepley might get a bunch of minor-league development before the season even actually starts? Long was .883 OPS last year with 20 HR. What if he improved and pulls-in-air a little more often? If I turned 5 groundouts into 5 more HRs, maybe he's .315/.414/.518, and he gets a bunch of LF work and looks not bad there? Not close to Happ or Kepley or Alcantara defensively, obviously, but kind of Seiya-esque? He might be another option... Maybe Shaw could be in that mix, too, as part of his Zobrist-role, if he's not traded before 2027 opens? Just thinking that with Caissie gone, and lots of guys approaching the arb-inflation years, I think being willing to let one (or both) of Happ or Seiya go without giving them significant raises (even as they face aging decline), could be really healthy. But unless Conrad explodes, or Alcantara, I'm thinking there might be some collection of possibilities from which Hoyer and Counsell might draw?

Does Rojas .202 slugging in 172 Knoxville AB yellow-flag you guys at all? Or given that he was young, and won't turn 21 till April, are you totally unconcerned? Will be really interesting to me to see how he adjusts and bounces back this season. Being young, of course, is great if you improve with time. Would be super helpful if he could kinda break out, maybe be healthy all year from start to finish, and have a really productive hitting-season at Knoxville.