craig

Thanks, Greg! That's really helpful, and encouraging to hear. My recall of the first and almost only report I'd seen had speculated "Tommy John"; so the prospect that he's already hitting suggests that his long-term development will not be impacted significantly. Super! I'll be interested to see how his hitting and power show as time goes by.

Interesting! Hadn't heard the "confirmed he'll be ready for the start of the season" before. That's great, if true.

I can only speak for myself, but it was the LACK of lots of quality production that alarmed me, along with watching him have a "meh" fastball. He had a really solid year in 2019 for a freshman, but it wasn't spectacular. 2020 was nixed by Covid, and then as a Junior he gave up 90 hits in 92 IP along with 9 HRs. That's worrisome. As I said when he was drafted, here's hoping the org saw something very fixable with the fastball. Being a LHP with a borderline plus plus changeup gives him a lot of leeway to being at least a potential big leaguer in some way, but that fastball (and a breaking ball of some sort) need to make some huge strides. rubes, I admit that was kinda my question, too. Average fastball, hit-per-inning and HR-per-9 performance numbers, 3.7 ERA. Didn't seem like necessarily great stuff if college guys were hitting him like that. Plus with him having declined from Fresh to Junior season, no indication that he was on an improvement trajectory. So yeah, I get the hesitation. But I'm OK with trusting scouts, so I'm still hopeful that they knew what they're doing. Nor was there any indication that the broader scouting media saw his selection as being a reach or anything. So I think this was really more of a scouting/tools/stuff pick than a college-stats pick? Which also maybe kinda fits with the milb article. That basically suggested that, for the moment, he's largely only keeping 2 of his 5 college pitches. Change, his best pitch, was a keep-as-is. He said in college he was 4-seam/2-seam fastball guy; now he seemed to suggest he was going to be dropping the 2-seam. And he said since joining the Cubs he was in search for both a very new curveball and a very new slider. So totally not a case of a "stick-with-what-got-you-here, stick-with-what-you-did-in-college" developmental plan whatsoever.

Greg Huss has Yohendrick Pinango in his South Bend lineup. Didn't he have TJ surgery or something only a few months back? I've kinda been assuming he's out for the year, but am I perhaps remembering wrongly, or mis-reading how quickly a hitting prospect might be able to get back? Just curious whether I am allowed to be more optimistic for him than I'd anticipated?

Good thoughts, Yeah, I hope it helps. One other factor, which can maybe make it harder, is that if a guy has been pitching a way for a while, and the pitch lab suggests improvements, it might be easy to sometimes drift back to your old arm slot and your old stride. So some of the adjustments may make it extra challenging to locate consistently, at least for a while. But yeah, certainly part of the pitch-lab objective is to find slot/stride that feels most natural and is most easy to repeat consistently

Thanks for that link, Tom. [highlight=yellow]Of these three buckets, I'm especially curious about the "command bucket"[/highlight]. To adjust mechanics, arm-slot, grips, to change shape and velocity, that seems very accessible to what pitch lab can analyze. But I'm curious how much help pitch-lab stuff will provide for command? Burl will be an interesting case over this year and next, to see if he can get anywhere. Luke Little might be another interesting challenge. Herz and Jensen, too. Marquez, if he's ever allowed to get any development. Those are all guys who seem to have plenty of stuff; but how consistently will they be able to command it? I I'm also actually kinda interested in McIlvaine. Missed most of the year with injury, and was bad when he came back. But at one point I thought he seemed like a pretty stuff-strong-command-iffy guy. Maybe after the arm stuff, both the stuff and the command will be bad. But it would be fun if he came back fully healthy, got his stuff back or better, and then also showed some progress with his command.

Howard has 302 pro AB, with sub-.600 OPS, and .277 OBP. Hi HS sample is smaller, only 192 AB. And he hit only .396 against mediocre Chicago-area pitchers, .419 as a junior. If his pro sample is dismissable on sample-set basis ("maybe a couple hundred.. PA's"), more so his amateur sample. Either way, his HS sample wasn't especially good, given the level of competition. His summer show-case sample set is smaller yet. Tom, I hope he emerges as a capable hitter, we all do, and his history does not preclude the possibility. But sooner or later, he's going to need to demonstrate that he can actually hit. I hope he will, you expect he will, but thus far there's really not much performance history demonstrating that he has or can. Its hypothetical hopes, obviously no harm in hoping.

I don't know anything, and I'm probably imagining. But it seems to me that some of the new prospects lately have a higher load than I recall back in the Baez/Schwarber/Happ prospect era. I'm probably imagining. But I wonder whether it's coached a little differently now, and a higher load is thought to give better capacity versus the high fastball? I wonder if there tended to be a swing in past that was geared toward lifting keep-the-ball-down pitching, but was variably vulnerable to fastballs up? I wonder if now the coaching, and scouting/drafting too, has more priority on swings that have more ability to sometimes powder some up fastballs? It's not easy, for sure, and perhaps a swing better matched for hard high 4-seamers is more vulnerable to low stuff, etc.. But you'd like to have some guys who, if a pitcher throws up but misses a little bit, of if the hitters swings right or guesses right, that he can hammer some of those, and make pitchers think twice about teasing up there.

Hitting may be the hardest skill in pro sports, perhaps second only to quarterbacking. And of course some quarterbacks (Russell Wilson, for example) couldn't hit a lick in the minors. Don't think anybody has ever questioned Howards defense or frame/athleticism, nor of course his motivation or work-ethic or any of that. It's pretty much all and only a question of whether he can hit enough or not. If he can, we've got a player. If he can't, you've got whatever value a good-glove-no-hit guy provides. It will be great if he can develop into an anti-awful hitter, maybe even into a kinda good one. We're minor-league prospects, hope is what we live on!

Interesting that within a month, Blankmeyer has left the Cubs. One of the late-January Athletic articles by Mooney mentioned this. I'd be curious to hear the story on that.

Tom, thanks for link to the Ethan Roberts article. Is there any sense for why his results didn't transfer up to Iowa? He pitched 22 innings for Iowa versus 32 in AA, but gave up more hits (19/16) and almost as many walks (8/9) at Iowa in basically 2/3 of the innings. *Just a fluke, and he had a couple of off-games control-wise? Or is there a hint that better hitters neutralize him a little bit, and his AA success might not translate? *I'm guessing it's mostly small sample-size fluke? But sometimes guys with somewhat lesser stuff can't get by as well when they are "off" their game. Over a 2.1-inning 3-game stretch at Iowa, he gave up 4 walks and 7 earned runs. Not sure it applies, but I think sometimes finesse pitchers below AAA are willing to throw fastball strikes, even if location sometimes drifts into hittable parts of the strike zone, because hitters don't punish the mistake fastballs. When willing to throw fastball strikes early, that sets up K-counts, where chase pitches get chase K's; plus when willing to throw fastball strikes when behind, that limits walks. Win-win for K/BB ratios. But then sometimes against more dangerous hitters, guys can't afford to throw as many fastball strikes inside the edges; they get behind more; and their chase pitches cause less chase. The "Micah Bowie" syndrome, for those of you old enough to remember the player. Then sometimes confidence and rhythm deteriorates, too, and command slips, too.

AGree and disagree. Agree that Kilian is on a different planet from Velasquez, and AFL helped to confirm it for us. At time of trade, there was not scouting consensus that Kilian had quality big-league fastball. Fangraphs, for example, had him as a teens-level prospect for the Giants, and kind of like a 4th-round draft pick finesse pitcher. Then he didn't show anything in his two outings for Cubs, and went Covid. So, to me coming after the trade-time scouting reports, and then disappearing, it wasn't really clear what we had, or how good of a prospect he really was. In fact, it wasn't even entirely clear that he was the primary prospect in the Bryant trade, for all we knew Canario might perhaps have been as valued as Kilian, and I didn't know whether he might not be more of a Keegan Thompson Cory Abbott type prospect. But now after the AFL, we've gotten lots of reports on his stuff, and it's obvious that his velocity is big-league legit, and that with his sinker/cutter/4-seamer/sinker/curve, that he's got a big-league arsenal. So it seems that he's been fully affirmed as having a big-league arm with big-league stuff, and a legit chance to be a solid big-league starter. Velasquez started and finished at a different place. I think the AFL has confirmed that he's got big-league power, if he can get to it; and that some of his improvement is legit. Kilian was affirmed as a serious big-league prospect. Velasques I think is now affirmed as a major-league possibilty. But the odds of him ever being a league average or asset starter isn't nearly as high as for Kilian. But, I think a few months ago I wouldn't have given him any consideration; now he's worth considering as a possibility, even though still an improbable one.

Thanks for that review. My previous uninformed impression had been that he's viewed as "meh" defensively, arm included. This review reference having a lot of assists, and having a reasonable arm, which I hadn't appreciated before. The possibility to be a respectable corner outfielder is interesting. (Although whether this review is accurate on things defense, who knows...). I hadn't been aware of the extreme pull-orientation. We know, of course, that big-league pitchers are good at attacking guys with trends in any direction. I do admit I'm not sure some pull-orientation is bad, though. Guys with strength and bat speed, pulling the ball over the LF fence is a very nice approach, perhaps. (Heh heh, to some degree I wonder whether the Cubs haven't done some of their hitters some disservice by trying to coach them to go opposite a lot, and to let the ball get deep into the zone instead of getting in front of it and pulling it hard early. Addison Russell had his own issues both personal and hitting-wise, but I thought he was one of those guys who was a pull hitter with good pull power, and when they spend so much time trying to make him oppo, he didn't actually have the power to hit HR's oppo, and he ended up losing the HR power which was the one batting quality he was good at.) So maybe having a guy who's a comfortable good pull-hitter is a good thing, not bad?

Thanks Cal and Greg. Very interesting. The distinction between college-tuition-now versus college-tuition-assistance *after* a career fails is interesting. I admit I'm a little disappointed in one way. I'd thought maybe he's skip the 3rd quarter each year, and effectively miss almost none of the minor-league spring-training=plus-season. Cubs seem fairly serious about the process and the prospect. Pretty cool. I love the uniqueness and creativity. Obviously the odds are remote. But it would be such a cool story if he worked out, and developed into a good big-leaguer years down the road.

Drew Gray 5K in his two innings. 9K/1BB threw his first four innings. On draft day, few of the media rankings had him top-200, and weren't sure if he'd pitch or hit, or be a wildman. For the moment at least, easy to be more enthused on stuff, value, and control than on draft day. Fun.

Bain pretty bad tonight. Thanks for Schlafer video. A lot of these guys, it's so much about consistency. Bain, Schlafer, Hodge, on their good nights they're good. But some bad nights can be pretty bad, too. Hope with time is to get more consistent and find ways to work around when the good stuff isn't clicking.

Speaking of Killian, anybody know what's happened to him or why?

Devers is 163K/45BB over his career thus far. 6'3", 21. Would be fun if he emerges as a real prospect.

I hope so. I recall almost no info or discussion about him when drafted, or since. I thought at draft he was maybe a high-80's guy who was projected to maybe get faster given his size. But I've almost never heard or read anything about him. Longenhagen had 49 guys on his list, but Hodge didn't make that top-49 list. But yeah, *if* he really is already a mid-90s strike-thrower at age 20, that would seem a great project for the pitch-lab guys to work with, if true.

Porter Hodge is doing very well at Myrtle. 6K/0BB in 5.2 shutout innings, only 77 pitches, 52 strikes. His composite Myrtle numbers are skewed by a crummy first appearance. Fun to have a young guy progressing well. His K/BB/HR at Myrtle has been excellent. BABIP >.360. Maybe coincidence and bad luck? Or maybe a guy whose stuff isn't that hot, but he'd rather throw a not-that-special fastball for strikes and let them hit it, rather than to nibble and walk? Will be interesting to see how he finishes out the season, and then sooner or later to get some more scouting info. Big kid who's only 20, kind of fun to imagine some stuff projectability left for him.

Anybody know what's up with Caleb Kilian? Hasn't pitched since Aug 20. Injured? Deep Covid? Innings maxed? (100IP pitched.) Sent to pitch lab to work on developmental stuff? Maybe he could have pitched more, but they wanted to shut him down so he can be fully rested and be able to work seriously hard in pitch lab on developmental stuff in the fall? Just hoping he isn't injured already...

Leigh signed for 50k. Thanks.

Last night Watkins had the 6K/2IP outing. Previous night it was Zach Leigh with 6K/2IP. He's at 9K/3.2 IP. Did we ever get a signing bonus for him? The full $125K slot for a 16th rounder? Or was he more of a discount guy? Watkins was 8th round, but got the $125K amount that 13th, 14th, and 15th rounders got. Olivo the 17th rounder was $75; Hambley the 18th rounder was $200. Leigh is the only draftee who I never saw a number for....

Heh heh. Not that it matters, but I don't think I understand some of his numbers. 4.2 IP = 14 outs, 13 K's would suggest only one out came by other means. But milb.com lists him with a 1.0 GO/AO. If he's only retired one guys via a batted ball, how could he have a 1.0 GO/AO? So, maybe that means he had a wild-pitch type K where the whiffer reached, so that allowed him two batted-ball outs, one in air and one on ground? Stats list 4 hits and 1 BB. If he's K'd 13, maybe one of them reached anyway, plus he's gotten both a flyout and a groundout to account for the 1.0 GO/AO, plus he's allowed a BB and 4 hits, how can his total PA be only 17? 13K + 1 groundout + 1 air-out + 4 hits + 1 BB, that's like 20 PA. Did 3 guys gets outed on the bases via DP and caught-stealing or something? A fun collection of weird numbers. Fun with rookie ball.

Tom or others, do you have scouting info on Porter Hodge? Big kid, 20, obscure Utah high school background. His ERA for the season looks blah. But he's been inconsistent. After a disastrous first appearance for Myrtle, he's stacked 3 variably good outings. 14K/4BB/7H/10IP. 6'4" 230 listing doesn't make a guy a power pitcher, but it would be fun to hypothetically end up with him emerging as a big, strong, power-pitching strike-throwing rotation guy.