craig

Heh heh, for me it's more "I don’t see how anyone could put Hernandez in the top 10z"

Bertz, thanks much for that fastball-whiff data. Yeah, super exciting if Hartshorn is just a gifted contacted hitter, with big power 2nd. The "hitter" part is always the big essential for any power hitter. Obviously contact on fastballs is one thing, contact on movement is different, so we'll see. But fun to dream. Cal, thanks for note on Jerzembeck. Yeah, who knows if he'll ever be healthy; if so when; and how much velo-improvement and pitching development relative to freshman year is possible and ahead for him. But man, in the unlikely event that you get the prospect he was back then, with the hypothetical that neither the surgeries nor the time lost compromise his stuff or his development, he could be a really intriguing prospect. We shall see!

Good thought. I like your guess better than mine! Could easily get that extra $0.2, whether by triming Wing or Jerzembeck's over; by increasing the under on the 7-10 guys; or increasing the under on Reid and Kepley. To some degree, I almost feel like the bigger Hartshorn's bonus, the more I like the draft and the draft strategy?

Wow, no kidding do I like that! A super-power guy with superb contract rates? Boy, do I ever love that! Dumb Q, from a non-super-saber-smart boy. What kind of whiff-rates are typical on fastballs? I'd have had zero context for whether that was impossible or routine.

I get the small-man profile analogy. But just because Bateman and Southisene haven't hit doesn't mean Kepley won't. Late July, Bateman has 6 XBH with 0.040 ISO, only 13 SB. Hopefully Kepley just hits more hits, more doubles, and does more steals. Law or somebody said Kepley's exit-velo/hard-hit were only barely below average. Media rankers, who talk to scouts, all like him; that was never true for Bateman. That Kantro burned a 2nd-round pick and ~$1.5M (or whatever) suggests he thinks he'll Kepley will get hits. I'm going to try to believe until he shows we shouldn't.

Silly add-on note. We all use different considerations when ranking, between upside, risk, proximity, etc.. One of my "gut" inputs is "how much would I mind if this guy got traded, or had a career-ending injury...". I'm kinda feeling like Conrad and Hartshorn, both of these guys have the possibility to become good, long-term asset middle-of-the-lineup assets. (I'm guessing Hartshorn is going to get a signing bonus that's quite high, and reflects Kantro's interest...). I don't quite have that same feel for Kevin, based on his bat, so I don't have "could-be-trading-away-a-star" feeling with him. I totally get it, that if we have Hartshorn for a while, and he's K'ing like Felix Cruz and Tomas, I might lose hope kinda abruptly. But not until some flaw gets exposed.

I'm thinking I'd put Hartshorn into my top-10, right after Long in my list. Ahead of guys like Hernandez, or Birdsell. I tend to like to put guys who have high ceiling and haven't failed yet variably high, ahead of guys with know limits or proven areas of weakness. Popping him right into my top ten. Guy who might have big-time easy power, but might also possibly be a true-blue hitter besides, I like that possibility. Ahead of Birdsell and Triantos and Tomas type guys.

I'd put Conrad at 5, ahead of Alcantara and probably Long also. Kantro talked him up as 5-tool guy, who can play center, and might be a serious hitter with serious power. Will he actually click? I don't know. But Kantro's 1st-round bats have jumped into Cubs top-5 pretty quickly, so I'm thinking there's a legit chance that Conrad will be really good. I like Kevin and he's got a chance to be a good player. But his swing is long, and he's never really excelled a hitter, and he's never hit many HR's. So personally I'm going with Kantro's choice who hasn't failed yet. I'd rather trade Kevin that trade Conrad, myself. I'm also putting Conrad ahead of Long just for the speed and positional value. And potential to be a big HR-hitter seems larger, too.

I like the Hartshorn review, "easy plus raw power" but "with a good approach" is encouraging. Power is always fun, of course. But lots of strong power guys who can't get to it. Any reviews encouraging the idea that he might have a good approach and actually be a good hitter who can get to his power, I enjoy those.

I thought it would be fun to guess how Kantro would divvy up his dollars. This is total guesswork, for sure, but just trying to have something hypothetical. Overslots: Wing, $1.2 (~$0.6M overslot) Hartshorn, $1.4 (~1.0 overslot) Jerzembeck, $0.3. (~$150K overslot) Underslots: Conrad: $4.0K ($750 under) Kepley: $1.4. ($280 under) Reid: $700K ($165 under) Picks 8-9-10: $175 each (~$90K under, combined). ($175 is still better than 3rd day slot, so they'd each have motive to agree.). $482 overage. That's totally guessing, of course. But just trying to guesstimate what kinds of superslots Wing and Hartshorn might be getting, and what it would take to cover them. This is also kinda assuming Greg's inside dope on Conrad taking a big underslot is true. I like to take a guess in advance, just for the fun of it. My $1.4 for Hartshorn would match bottom of round 2 (last two picks have slot just under $1.4). $1.2 for wing would match 2nd-round comp slot; 1st pick of round slots at $1.08. So both of my Hartshorn/Wing numbers would pay them better-than-3rd-round slots.

In the old pre-cap days, they'd often draft a couple of college-bound guys in rounds 30-40 as reallocation contingency, in case somebody drafted higher decided not to sign or failed a physical. Given the health history for Conrad and Harshorn, perhaps Barnett pick is contingency *IF* one of them red-flags their physical?

One more thought... Years ago, there was a sense that if you draft a college pitcher, there wasn't much projection or developmental upside. But now with all the pitch-labs, that isn't reality. College pick often add velo, and often revise or develop different pitch shapes. The way pitchers remake themselves, seemingly at almost any age, I'm not sure that being young is that necessary for developmental potential? Particularly for college pitchers whose development has been delayed by injury, perhaps they might still have significant undeveloped developmental potential?

Yeah, if a college guy stays healthy and is actually good, you're right that they should get to AA within 2-3 years, that's true. Not sure the Cubs draft is unusual, though? 4 HS picks. Given that HS players don't sign for the $150 slot, how many teams are drafting/signing many HS guys after the first 5 rounds? I just checked for volume of HS picks in recent Kantro drafts: 2025: 4 2024: 3 2022: 3 So in a sense, I don't see an unusual ratio. When you don't have a big pool, and not many HS guys want $150 slot, I think this may be kinda normal.

Thanks, Bertz. That's kinda what I was guessing too. That even if he's "pitching" next summer, it's mostly late-start, and mostly "pitching" to regain strength and confidence in his arm, rather than "pitching" to get guys out. Kinda guessing that 2027 might be his first year really pitching healthy/strong and throwing all his pitches to get outs and win, not to say "the important thing was to get some innings in". An interesting thing that might indicate faster: I think I read that Jerzembeck had entered transfer portal. Not sure I'd do that if I figured to miss all spring college season anyway? So guessing he maybe at least hoped/aspired to be pitching next college spring. Cubs usually are pretty appropriately carerful, though.

Jerzembeck is a pick I'm very interested in. My prototype for 3rd-day 11th-round overslot is young, projectible HS guy. Hope or Lovich. But while Jerzembeck is already 22, I still envision him as being hypothetically a high-ceiling guy, *IF* he can get fully healthy, and *IF* health and maturation eventually make him stronger an faster than he was as a high-end HS prospect, or an SEC freshman. I'm really curious whether he's going to just be a $150 slot guy, or if Kantro likes him enough to overslot him some. If so, by how much? That might hint at how much he likes Jerzembeck. If he had stress fracture in elbow, and 2-screws installed as part of the treatment in February, I wonder how fast that could rehab? Ready for a mostly normal season next spring/summer? Or perhaps largely a slow, cautious, Mesa rehab summer, and maybe not pitching minor-league box-score games till Spring 2027? Beats me. But would sure love a happy story for him and the Cubs.

I don't see it this way at all. I don't see this as a "conservative", high-floor draft at all. Very many of the picks had injury factors. Injured guys have low-floors. I think they actually gambled a lot on risky injury guys in order to get higher ceilings. Likewise I think some of the injuries may delay some players? So, I'm not sure they're really prioritizing advanced, be-ready-soon guys. Conrad hasn't played much top-level college, and won't start till next spring. Coppola has only like 40 innings of college baseball. Jerzembeck ~30 innings? I don't even know whether either of those two will be 100% by next spring, or might still burn a bunch of 2026 on rehab? If Franklin had TJ only months ago, he won't do much of anything till 2027. So I guess I'm thinking with all the injury pitchers, that doesn't feel like either high-floor or fast-track philosophy. Every draft pick every year has various risk/reward, ceiling/floor unpredictabilities. I don't see this group as being all that different. I think perhaps lots of the injuries changes the nature of some of the risks. Every one of the injury guys, the injury provides risk; but the "ceiling" is that *IF* the guy turns out healthy, you might get variably excellent value? A lot of the injury stuff compromises scouting looks and developmental progress. How much healthy Coppola has anybody ever seen? Jerzembeck? Hartshorn? *IF* these guys get or stay healthy, they may have some pretty good major-league upside. But with so little game action, super unpredictable what they will be future. So safe/conservative/advanced/high-floor, I don't really see that for most of the picks. Kepley is kinda different. He hasn't been injured, whatever his ceiling may be, it certainly does not include power. Reid, he maybe hasn't had the injury history, but when a guy is ranked 209 by pipeline, and doesn't have velocity or breaking-ball yet, that's obviously another scouting pick. Definitively a risky ceiling pick, risk that velocity doesn't add, and ala Ryan-Jensen he never figures out a slider or curveball. Wing seems high risk. Skinny guy, hasn't thrown hard for long, hasn't pitched much. Recept pop-up guy, who knows if that will be sustainable? But easy to dream that his potential upside could be high. Hartshorn, bit ceiling, but injuries alone make super high risk? Like any HS power hitter, who knows if they can actually handle pro pitching? So yeah, to me, other than maybe Kepley, this draft seems very heavy on risky shots on guys with good ceilings but risky-low floors.

I wonder how much NIL factors into things. I don't follow college baseball. I dont' imagine that every recruit at U Minnesota is getting significant NIL. But in SEC, do they generate enough revenue, or have enough huge fans that a guy like Caleb Barnett is going to get >$150K in NIL? I just have no idea how that works, or the amounts. Or if that only goes to some really top-200-rated guys, not guys who aren't that high profile? But yeah, Kantro used to save like $75 overage for a 3rd day guy, $225 or whatever. I wonder how persuasive that would be to a HS prospect? I'm guessing even if a guy isn't going to get much NIL to start at Marist or Liberty or whatever, that with the portal, *IF* he has a good freshman season, then he can portal to an SEC/ACC school and perhaps get a good NIL payoff then? So yeah, just wondering if it isn't harder to get a HS kid to go pro if he isn't getting 4th/5th round money?

Signing deadline is the 28th. Draft thinking is often best understood after the signing bonuses roll in. Often we (I?) have ideas about who might be under or overslot, which prove variably false. last year, didn't know HS Ronny Cruz would be an underslot, or how far over Southisene and Lovich would go. I think many posters thought Cole Mathis might be an underslot; not a penny. Two years ago, some of us guessed Wiggins to be a potential underslot, given his bad college record, wildman scouting reports, and TJ. I thought senior Josh Rivera might be a large underslot, but ended up only $147 under. I'd thought Zyhir might be a pretty substantial overslot. Rosario, too, maybe? But instead, Wiggins was the biggest overslot, Hope was only +250, Rosario was slot, and the bunch of college picks after Rivera were all within $24K of slot. 3rd-day overslots have varied. In 21 and 22, there was only a single 3rd-day overslot, and those modest ones of only $75 and $85, nothing dramatic. Hope at $250 was only 2023 guy, then Lovich at $500 much bigger, plus $70 for Mangus. So, I have no idea this year. Is Barnett going to get signed, with significant bonus? If so, that will enlighten Kantro's strategy. Or maybe Jerzembeck? Kantro has gone overslot in 11th round each of last two drafts. Maybe Jerzembeck isn't HS, but he was highly regarded out of HS, and looked good at SC before injuries. Maybe Kantro and Swoope love his stuff, and think that *IF* he can get healthy and right, that he might have a really high upside? *IF* he gets a variably significant overslot, that too might enlighten Kantro's strategy. I tend to think any of the college guys in 1-10 might be variably sub-slot, and Greg has suggested intel that Conrad is significant subslot. But yeah, we'll see how significant that really will be, and then how the others go. Maybe they won't sub-slot as much as we assume? Conversely, we have no idea how much Kantro loves either Wing or Snell, or how far over he's going to get them. Maybe they're just $1M guys, no more than a Southisene or Mule or only a hair above a Paciola. But, what if Hartshorn end up $1.6, or even more? That might enlighten Kantro's strategy. All fun to wonder. But we'll get a much better idea once the numbers come out. Kantro's valuations are often radically different from the media rankings, and IMO have usually proven to be very well informed and wiser. So yeah, as always, I'm kinda trusting that his decision-making is pretty thoughtful and justifiable.

Heh heh, that I think is relatively implausible. They spend to the max every year. Have every year since the rules have been in place. Kantro has either spent it all already, or else is still going to.

Yeah, I'd assume ≥$1M for Wing. I'd assume ≥$1 for Hartshorn too. But *IF* they were each $1.0, it would take barely $1M to cover that. With almost $500K in overage, it seems Kantro should have way more than $1M to spend on superslot. So either some more superslots ahead, or else Cubs like one or both of Hartshorn a LOT, more than $1M.

10 more rounds, so no idea what Kantro has. But all three of yesterday's picks seem variably underslot, with Greg speculating that Conrad is going WAY underslot. Reid certainly projects to be significant underslot. Then this morning, 5 of 7 guys were old senior-sign guys, who'll turn 23 before Christmas. Each has some baseball ceiling, so I'm not suggesting they'll be $1K guys like Riley Martin was. But sure would expect there is some underslot happening from those guys. plus of course the $481 overage allowed. I trust Kantro on this. But unless Hartshorn is getting some huge superslot, it would seem Kantro has probably assembled more superslot capacity than Wing and Hartshorn alone will absorb?

Kantro hasn't spent heavily on HS pitchers. Mule and Gray have been the only bonus guys. McGwire was a 9th rounder, but Rujano at $210 was the only guy above $200K. Hopefully Wing won't join the Mule-Gray TJ bandwagon.

He was pick 121, he was rated #87. The wide range between mlb #87 and BA at #201 suggests how widely varient these media evals can be. And probably how widely varient team scouting evals can be as well. Sounds like a very late riser.

I think more modest swings than "big" swings. Kantro has gone overslot on Gray, Paciolla, Mule; Zyhir HOpe; Melendez; Rosario; Lovich; Southisene., Obviously none of these were "big" swings, like 1st-round-type guys. But a lot of good talent if you can scout wisely.

Kepley is the really surprising pick to me.. Kantro seems to like that Southisene/Bateman profile. But spending overslot $1.0 on 4th round and $180 on an 8th-round guy is different from a 2nd-round guy with $1.7 slot. Hard to have a good big-league OBP without getting lots of hits. As a sub-.300 hitter in college, he may face analogous challenge that Bateman and Southisene have struggled with. Walks and HBP are not the best carrying tools offensively. But, we shall see. Maybe he can be kinda Hoerner with walks and HBP.