craig

How do you guys feel about Will Sanders? Wasn't on pipeline's top 30, behind such wunderkinds as McCollough, Christian Franklin, Neely, Bateman, and Cowles. Lance B didn't have him in his top 30(?) either, as I recall? JAG non-prospect who's on a hot lucky streak versus minor leaguers? Or might maybe be a prospect, figuring things out, and with the control to be a big-leaguer without overwhelming stuff? I have no idea what his pitch metrics reveal, or if his stuff has changed this year or what. Would be fun if he's actually a big-league prospect.

Fun that he'll be back! Hope he gets some hits and helps the team. :):). Couple thoughts. Jason, you do a nice video analysis of two swings at different points, and notice some nuanced differences. I agree that small differences can result in massively different results. Here is my question: How consistent is any hitter (or pitcher) from pitch-to-pitch? If you look at 20 swings the week of the Pivetta pitch, vs 20 swings this week, can you see some consistency of adjustment/improvement? Or is the variation in the two swings well within the random standard deviation that any hitter has from swing to swing? Two pitches to the same spot, but one was set up a little different, or Shaw was guessing a little different, or read the pitcher's delivery a little differently, and Shaw's swing looks a little different? If he saw the same HR pitch the next day from a different guy in a different context, might his swing perhaps look like the pivetta itch again? A second day vs a second pitcher in a different game situation, might not leg kick be different on Friday than it was on Thursday? Or, are there mechanical things that really are different one month later? I don't really know. Similar for pitchers: The same guy on the same day locates some, and mis-locates some others. Keller today throws a bunch of nice pitches, but has one that;s way out of whack and hits Vargas (?). Some range of inconsistency is natural, yes? For Shaw, I wonder if a funky process might perhaps always render him something of a hot-and-cold guy? I think he's trended that way in the minors. Some guys just have a harder time.

Wow, the Wiggins stuff is really amazing and fun. Will Frisch, that's not on the same plane, obviously. But that's a cool story in itself. A guy misses not one, not two, but three years, and all of a sudden he's back in a rotation pitching into the 6th inning? *IF* he would hypothetically look more consistent and controlled as the season progressed, that would be such a fun comeback story.

Just to further belabor the Long analysis, which is obviously small-sample. In terms of short-term service for the Cubs, Jon Long might hypothetically seem to be a Turner alternative. Both bad-fielding RH 1B/DH, that's what Turner is. Turner gets used almost exclusively versus LHP. Would Long excel in that? Thus far, unfortunately he's got some remarkable reverse splits. This year, his OPS vs LHP is almost 600 points lower than versus righties, thanks to his .154 slug versus LHP. That's obviously small-sample fluke. But last year he also had somewhat negative reverse split, .820 LHP vs .865 RHP. So the current version doesn't really project as an ideal platoon specialist.

That would be odd if the data was just faulty. Heh heh, by definition you can't have most hitters be <50th percentile, need half to be ≥50th percentile! Being 10th percentile, that's really low. And even if there is flaw but it's modest in the calculation, 10th percentile is more than a small significant-figure error in the calculation or whatever, that's maybe a small correction from being 14th percentile, but it's not a small error away from being 50th or 70th. Obviously many of the stats reflect interconnected realities. Long's Z-swing% is at 7%. That's REALLY low. Might that kinda artificially inflate his barrell%? A challenge when selective minor-leaguers promote to majors is that minor-league location isn't big-league caliber. If you've got an unusually small sector of the strike zone that you like, minor-league pitchers are more prone to accidentally leak pitches into your preferred sector. But if he's so picky that he's got only 7% Z-swing in minors, once he gets scouted will big-league pitchers ever throw to his preferred sector? Second, if you're super-picky within the strike zone, isn't it natural that your barrell% should be deceptively, disproportionately high? I have a small sector that I can barrell, so I only swing at those and when I do I successfully barrell those. But if I'm taking lots of strikes that most hitters swing at, isn't that artificially going to elevate my barrell%? And then if I get in the majors and teams have great scouting on me, and pitchers are able to locate strikes, won't I end up just taking a zillion strikes and getting called out on strikes right and left? You mention that he's been a heavy groundball guy. Yet his LA Sweet-Spot% is 100th percentile. If he's only rolling with 3HR/33K/40%-groundball when his LA Sweet-Spot% is 100th percentile, do you think his launch angle is going to have lots of room to improve? Hard to improve on 100th percentile, seems regression towards mean might be more likely, no? Just like hard to improve on his .473 BABIP, regression-towards-mean is probably likely there too, I'm guessing. But yeah, he's only been pro for <2 years. Got lots of time to do some adjusting and optimizing. I'd think swinging a little more aggressively and pulling more, the Z-swing and pull are the two obvious areas of potential adjustment. I also think that more pull can also result in reduction in groundball, maybe?

Do those poor Z-swing or Pull% scores bother you at all? Hard to hit lots of HR's without pulling the ball. He's got 33:3 K/HR ratio thus far this year, that's a lot of K's. When 30% of your AB's are K's, you'd normally like your K/HR ratio to be well below 10:1. That's leaving your production heavily dependent on BABIP. Obviously a lot of his good numbers contribute to high BABIP. But he's rolling with .473 BABIP, that just doesn't roll in the majors with big-league defenses and all of the sophisticated advanced scouting that big-league defenses use. He's a fascinating prospect, and seems to have some hitting capacity. Just hard to guess where a DH prospect with 10th-percentile pull% and a 33:3 K/HR profile is going to be that valuable a prospect. What he is now, of course, may not be what he will become. Some smart, well-coached hitters make some adjustments. Maybe he can adapt and learn to pull more, and hit some HR's? Maybe I'll jinx him and tomorrow he'll pull a HR! A lot of unwritten story ahead for him.

I think the defense factor can't be underestimated, though. Not that many top-100's who don't have defensive tools. And while he's got some good exit velocity data, I don't imagine the media scouts love his power potential? He's not big, and he probably isn't winning BP distance contests against Alcantara and Caissie, even if Alcantara doesn't actually have actual in-game HR-productivity. But yeah, just keep hitting, and he'll have value to the Cubs.

I take full credit for jinxing Moises into the HR's!

If Flexen is up, then I'm guessing the Cubs got their 2 innings from Tom Cosgrove, and now I assume he'll go back down?

Mark Grace is a nice analogy. Not sure Moises will have that level of power? Grace had 7 seasons with ≥13 home runs, so Moises might maybe never have that level of HR production. But maybe he will get to that 13-17 HR kind of range? Maybe more? Michael Barrett also comes to mind. Again, Ballesteros might not have either the HR power or the defensive capacity Barrett had. Or maybe he'll have both and more? Barrett had back-to-back-to-back 16-HR seasons, perhaps Moises will blossom into that level of over-the-fence at some point? Or more? Barrett was never a gold-glove catcher, but he was good enough to start over 800 games at catcher. Would be fun if Moises reached that level of defensive acceptability.

Do you think his HR-modesty is just going to be his profile? He's hitting gobs of singles, and his BABIP is over .450, which is kinda great for a slow man. Heh heh, I'm guessing the feet-on-dirt rule has been especially beneficial for him. Guessing as a contact singles-hitter type guy with no speed, that infielders would be way out on the grass when he cam to bat in earlier rules. But he's only at 2 HR, both in same game, and one of them was off a backup infielder, right? Not a lot of over-the-fence yet. Maybe that's still to come, maybe it's cold-weather baseball, or maybe HR-hitting just isn't really going to be a big plus for him ever. (Hopefully this will reverse-jinx him, and he'll hit one tomorrow and another by end of week.).

This is really interesting. Thanks for the link!

Sanders had one bad inning, otherwise he's been pretty good. There is promise in guys who throw strikes. And I think all the pitch-lab stuff works best for guys who have some control. Might also be that if he ever makes it, if he's a back-of-roster guy, maybe he'd throw a little harder in relief, too. Anyway, I'm optimistic that maybe he's got some possibilities. Very fun.

Jostin Florentino seems to be having some very good outings. Not a tall guy, per bbcube, only 6'0" listing. Has anybody gotten any observations on his stuff and potential?

Espinoza has composite 637 AB, with 18HR and 33 SB. That's not great, it's not terrible. Having just turned 22, and having lost a season to injury, who knows. But not too many guys have 18HR in their first 650 AB, so I'd like to imagine there might maybe be some power potential there. Most likely he'll get exposed as the season progresses, and most likely he's just a minor-league guy who'll never become significant. I was just kinda curious. We've got so few hitters in A/AA this year that it doesn't take much to catch some attention, I think!

Love that eyeball report on Wiggins. If you were watching Mule as well, how did he look, eyeball-wise? Pre-surge, there were reports of big-velocity. Does he still have notably-good velocity now? Or kinda good, but what RHP prospects don't have velocity these days, so his fastball looks good but not exceptional. Control look promising, or pretty eratic? on the length: I look forward to what you find and report. I admit I'm kinda curious whether it's really much different? The length seems so, yes. But, is it partly because guys are getting through more innings on fewer pitches? When you've got prospects like DJ Herz, Palencia, Luke Little, and Drew Gray starting, they were walking the world and burning a lot of pitches. Wiggins got through 5 on 75 pitches. Herz or Palencia would be lucky to get through 4 innings on 75 pitches. So I guess I'm kinda wondering if the pitch-counts are actually up significantly? Or whether part of it is some guys are just getting through innings quicker, and maybe not having as many guys on base? Some of our guys, like Armstrong, or Sanders-when-he's-on, they just throw a lot of strikes. So to extend my ramble: Is pitch-count really up? Versus just getting an extra inning from the same pitch counts? Perhaps related is a question of whether there is perhaps increased priority on throwing strikes? I could imagine different development philosophies. Work heavily on your 3rd/4th pitches, the ones that need improvement, not on your best one or two pitches? Versus priority on strike-throwing, and developing a strike-throwing mind-set? Nibble on the boundaries, versus challenge a little more? Prioritize K's, so if you ever get ahead 1-2, throw 3 chase pitches? Versus more priority on throwing strikes even with 2-strike counts? May also be that after some years of wildmen who never really mastered control, that they've oriented a bit more towards guys with more control, thinking that they can optimize pitch shapes and improve stuff for strike-throwers more easily than they can develop control for wildmen?

Do you guys know much about him, other than being Ludwing's brother? Among all the Latin guys who get seen and mentioned at backfields now and then, I don't recall mention of him in past, and I don't recall his name on top-30 lists or anything. But maybe I've missed some info on him?

Solid game for Armstrong, 6K/1BB in 5, took only 64 pitches, he throws a lot of strikes. Does Flexen have any stuff? had 3.61 and 3.76 ERA's as regular starter for seattle back in 21-22, so he wasn't terrible. Is he just a junk stuff guy? Or does he have legit big-league stuff, maybe?

I know his one HR was a down-the-pull-line one. Does he use the pull side much, or is he predominantly an opposite-field guy?

Valdez making enough contact to hit HR's would seem very fun. Think he's got the bat speed and the raw power to have good power. If pure hitting and contact can appear, he could get very interesting in due time.

Carico hit a HR today. No SB against either Carico or Moises today.

Burl pitched. 3 walks in 0.2 IP, so kind of in his former mode. Cristian with 3 singles and 3 steals.

Sanders 55/43 pitches-strikes. Being able to throw strikes without getting them blasted has value.

Having both Frisch and Burl Callaway on rosters, kinds crazy. Did I see Koen Moreno anywhere?

Sam Armstrong pitched 4 innings in Cubs ex game yesterday, 6K 1 walk 1 hit. Probably facing all minor leaguers, so not sure it means much for big-league potential. Do you guys think he has any big-league possibilities? I think it's possible? When a guy can command two pitches, fastball and slider, I think he's got a chance. And I often tend to think that guys who can command their fastball, those are the guys most likely to be able to pitch-lab their way and invent something new that they need? When guys are wild to start, they can pitch-lab their way to new pitch shapes and such, but they usually will be wild and inconsistent with new pitches, just like they are wild and inconsistent with original fastball. But guys who can control two pitches, they can sometimes learn to develop, optimize and control a third pitch.