You need to read the second article. That number wasn't adjusted for some important factors; defensive alignment, the jump in batter performance with any runner on first, the relative quality of pitchers with runners on vs. with the bases empty, etc. The real benefit is much smaller, somewhere in the order of 0-3 runs per season. The author's numbers are extremely flawed since he compares a select few players that are known as base stealers compared to an overall group that also includes those same base stealers and other leaser known base stealers. It should make a seperate comparison of good base stealers versus poor base stealers. He is cherry picking numbers to try to support his argument when the basis of comparison is flawed. The overlap between the group of all runners and first base and the ones considered stealers is negligible. (About 3% of the 100,000+ sample size.) Removing the stealers from the overall group would have had no significant imapct on the outcome. The results are also verified by his independent method of adjusting for defensive shits and pitcher quality. (Though that method showed a slightly larger disruptive effect.) The analysis is still supportive of my conclusion that a base stealer can disrupt a pitcher's focus on the following batter. Batting average is a much better measure of this effect than runs scored. Runs scored also takes into account that base stealers get caught stealing, thereby reducing the overall number of runs scored. I'm not talking about runs scored... I'm talking about distracting the pitcher. In any event, the analysis is nevertheless flawed as a theoretical matter because the author is comparing a barrel of apples (base stealers) to a mixed barrel of oranges (non-base stealers) and apples (base stealers). The assumption that this error has only a 3% negligible effect is incorrect because it assumes, ipso facto, that the other 97% of runners are non-base stealers. Without doing a statistical analysis, I'd venture to say that more than 3% of baseball players are capable base stealers.