Hosak8

Because you've spent a lot of time trying to discredit the methodology and not that point. If you had made any point of your own countering what Colin said instead of going on about "guesses". What the heck are you talking about? Have you even read this thread? Clearly not. I have never once tried to discredit the methodology. I pointed out that it was a guess. How is that discrediting it? Projections, by nature, are guesses. Only a contrarian could argue otherwise. I even made the comment from the beginning that it was not as random as Tyrant argued. It's funny that others have attacked the methodology, but because I've pointed out in the past how ridiculous some Sabermetrics can be, I get singled out. Seriously, another mod even pointed that the idiocy of any metric that equates Gathright to Abreu. But, it's me who gets singled out, and I never once pointed anything out about the metric, other than that it was an educated guess. And, if you want my point, I will restate it for the 100th time. The opinion that Gathright at $10 million per year is a better option than Abreu at $800k per year is sheer lunacy, and there are no statistics anywhere in the world that justify this stance. None. I don'tneed predictive metrics to back up my point, either. In fact, if I just used the OP's numbers, I feel fairly certain those would support my stance far more than they support his.

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done? Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes? I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless. Yes, and it's obvious by your previous disagreement of his point and your overuse of the word "guess" that your point is to discredit what he's saying. Everything talking about next year is a guess of some magnitude, to belabor that is beside the point. How would you go about making that evaluation of Gathright '09 v. Abreu '09? I disagree with him saying that the OP did not use guesswork in his assessment of each player. I did not argue whether those projections (is that better?) were useful or not. You can turn this into something else if you wish, but my point is 100% true. Now, onto your question. Of course I would choose some type of predictive metrics as part of my decision. However, unlike you Sabermetricians- who famously ignore any part of the game that cannot be quantified by some obscure methodology and formula- I would just consider other factors as well. I'm not arguing Abreu over Gathright- look back over the thread- not ONE time have I made any such comment. I made the point that there are no metrics available anywhere that justify wanting Gathright at $10 million over Abreu at $800k. How are all of you missing that?

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done? Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes? I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless. when you've turned to a semantic argument about whether fairly-well regarded projections are guesswork or not, your argument has lost some steam. So, now pointing out facts in an argument causes it to "lose steam"? There is no reasonable argument about that point. Projections (especially taking to different projections and averaging them out) ARE guesses. That is a FACT. You can call it semantics (and I realize to a degree that it is), but it is 100% factual. So, how has it "lost steam" again? And, this does nothing to my original argument. It is just as strong now as it was when I first made it. It is absurd to desire Gathright at $10 million over Abreu at $800k. No one has refuted that argument yet.

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done? Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes? I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless.

Jiddy got your request but doesn't know all the ins and outs of the league. I have to admit I have been a bit lax on sending him what he needs. The last 3-4 weeks have been rough with Thanksgiving, fiscal year end at work and my Dad's triple bypass. Things have calmed a bit so he's going to send me some questions he has and I'll get him the info. Thanks. I've tried very hard to be thorough when I've made a request of him- explaining that he can only keep so many points, etc. But, I know that only answers a small handful of questions. Plenty of grace for the new guy. It's when guys like Tim and Raw and Jebediah and veterans leave things unanswered for weeks at a time that I get a little impatient. Hope your dad's okay. My father-in-law just had the lower half of his lung removed over Thanksgiving, so we're in the midst of family stuff as well. He's now living on two half lungs, and with cancer in his body, so I understand priorities, trust me.

Huh? I understood what he was doing. He threw a bunch of guesswork into his metrics and tried to pass it off as advanced methodology. You can't randomly assign values and weights to formulas and then run the formulas as fact. Except for it was neither guesswork, nor random. Sure it was. He took two PROJECTIONS, and split the difference. How is that not guesswork? May not be random, but it is guesswork, no matter how Sabermetricians want to spin it.

Not sure when that will be. I hear Cowher's and (from extremely back channel whispers) Saban's names associated with that job when it opens. I don't see either of those being a 3-5 year job. Well... Saban, maybe.

You showed Abreu and Gathright to be similar players in terms of value, yet would rather pay Gathright at 10M per year more. Does that make any less sense than preferring to pay Abreu 10M more? Especially when you consider their ages? Colin, I'm with you on the numbers, but I don't know where you're pulling your conclusion from. You had Gathright at a 19.5 player, lets add 5 runs for baserunning, making him worth 24.5 You had Abreu at a 18.5 player and lets say his baserunning is neutral. Gathright is making $800K Lets say Abreu makes $12M So you would rather pay $12M for 24.5 runs than $800K for 18.5 runs? Ahhh.. THIS is the $800k question, and the one that he continues to avoid answering.

You showed Abreu and Gathright to be similar players in terms of value, yet would rather pay Gathright at 10M per year more. Does that make any less sense than preferring to pay Abreu 10M more? Especially when you consider their ages? Now you're twisting your argument because of the absurdity of it. You didn't say you'd rather pay Gathright $10 million than Abreu. You said you'd rather pay Gathright $10 million than Abreu $800k. BIG difference.

You cannot possibly mean this. No way. I spelled out exactly how much I thought Abreu and Gathright were worth in another post in this thread. If you disagree with any of the particulars, feel free to state that and we can have a discussion. But I absolutely can mean that. Okay. First of all, I'm perhaps the biggest skeptic of advanced metrics as anyone on this forum, and your metrics "proving" that Gathright is as good a player as Abreu only serves to strengthen that notion. However, that is neither here nor there in this discussion. My point is that you made the comment (and for argument's sake, we'll assume Abreu gets a contract worth 15.5 million in 2009- below what I think he will actually get, ftr) that you would rather have Gathright for 15.5 million than Abreu for 800k. That's patently absurd, and there are no metrics that you can make up that support that stance. Your turn. You contend that my argument is obviously wrong by contending that my argument cannot be correct. I mean, I guess I can't really argue that - you'll just call all of my points made up, right? I don't have the lack of self-respect required to continue this line of conversation. If at some point you decide to actually, um, think, let me know. Ahh, yes, condescension. How fitting. I did not point out that your points were "incorrect" or "wrong". I made the statement that your argument was absurd. Major difference. If you can point out how it is not absurd, I would be glad to continue in this discussion. You posted metrics that prove Gathright to be an equal player to Abreu (again, metrics are no different that any other statistic- and almost anyone can make any statistic say whatever they want it to.) You even go so far as to say that you would rather have Gathright for millions of dollars than Abreu at hundreds of thousands. I call that absurd, and very clearly every baseball professional in the world agrees with that, or else Gathright would not have been non-tendered by the freakin' Royals, while Abreu sits back and waits to sign a multi-million dollar contract. I'm asking you to explain why Gathright is worth Abreu's salary, and Abreu only worth Gathrights. That is all. If you are unable to do so, then so be it.

You cannot possibly mean this. No way. I spelled out exactly how much I thought Abreu and Gathright were worth in another post in this thread. If you disagree with any of the particulars, feel free to state that and we can have a discussion. But I absolutely can mean that. Okay. First of all, I'm perhaps the biggest skeptic of advanced metrics as anyone on this forum, and your metrics "proving" that Gathright is as good a player as Abreu only serves to strengthen that notion. However, that is neither here nor there in this discussion. My point is that you made the comment (and for argument's sake, we'll assume Abreu gets a contract worth 15.5 million in 2009- below what I think he will actually get, ftr) that you would rather have Gathright for 15.5 million than Abreu for 800k. That's patently absurd, and there are no metrics that you can make up that support that stance. Your turn.

You cannot possibly mean this. No way.

Thanks. Fixed. Good catch.

Non-Exempt Players: David Wright (638.4) Grady Sizemore (596.2) Johan Santana (571.2) JJ Hardy (482.2) Roy Oswalt (478.2) Alfonso Soriano (417.6) Josh Beckett (384) Hank Blalock (211.1) Chris Young (206.5) Non-Exempt Point Total: 3985.4 (out of 2100) Exempt Players: Kelly Johnson Mark Reynolds Brendan Harris Jarrod Saltalamacchia Carlos Gonzalez Joe Koshansky Kyle Blanks Michael Saunders Micheal Stanton Angel Salome Jair Jurrjens John Maine Joba Chamberlain Joakim Soria Sean Gallagher Joey Devine Chris Perez Ramon Ramirez Scott Lewis Daryl Thompson Jeremy Hellickson

Non-Exempt Players: Brian McCann (578.8) Aramis Ramirez (548.4) Dan Haren (512) Heath Bell (177.8) Non-Exempt Point Total: 1817 (out of 1817) Exempt Players: Nick Markakis Matt Kemp Yunel Escobar Chase Headley Wladimir Balientien Felix Pie Matt Antonelli Josh Fields Tyler Colvin Jose Tabata Paul Maholm Joe Saunders Johnny Cueto JP Howell Kyle McClellan Ian Kennedy

Non-Exempt Players: Mark Teixeira (600.1) Lance Berkman (598.3) Robinson Cano (447.5) Carlos Lee (438.6) Javier Vazquez (423.2) Randy Johnson (393.5) Tim Hudson (324.2) Brad Lidge (238.2) Chien-Ming Wang (199) Erik Bedard (173) Chris Carpenter (36.0) Non-Exempt Point Total: 3871.6 Exempt Players: Hanley Ramirez Ryan Braun Kurt Suzuki Delmon Young Justin Upton Cameron Maybin Dexter Fowler Mat Gamel Michael Burgess Mike Moustakas Justin Smoak Matt Wieters Hiroki Kuroda Mike Pelfrey Greg Smith Adam Wainwright Dustin McGowan Brandon Morrow Takashi Saito Phil Hughes Jeff Niemann Phillip Humber Scott Elbert

Non-Exempt Players: Jose Reyes (595.4) Jason Bay (567.2) Kevin Youkilis (552.2) Cliff Lee (542) Non-Exempt Point Total: 2256.8 (out of 2272.8) Exempt Players: Evan Longoria Kelly Shoppach Mike Aviles Shin-Soo Choo Denard Span Chris Davis Jesus Flores Max Ramirez Brian Bogusevic Vernon Carter Austin Jackson Ricky Nolasco Ubaldo Jiminez Glen Perkins David Purcey Alfredo Aceves David Price Humberto Sanchez Tim Alderson Daniel Cortes Neftali Feliz Tommy Hanson Michael Inoa

Non-Exempt players: Chase Utley (648.9) Roy Halladay (616) Ryan Howard (605.2) Manny Ramirez (598.6) Joe Mauer (591.2) Derek Lowe (491) Carlos Pena (473.2) Miguel Tejada (453) Jim Thome (451.5) Nick Swisher (447.8) Aaron Cook (430.8) Carlos Zambrano (423.2) Andy Pettitte (414.5) Kerry Wood (204.8) BJ Ryan (170.2) Non-Exempt Points: 7019.9 Exempt Players: Carlos Quentin Chris B Young Alex Gordon Chris Nelson Gerardo Parra Jordan Schafer Jered Weaver Jonathan Papelbon Francisco Liriano Gio Gonzalez Jason Hirsh Daniel Moskos Jarrod Parker Joe Savery Chris Tillman

Non-Exempt Players: CC Sabathia (676.8) Ryan Ludwick (578) Adrian Gonzalez (560.1) Matt Holliday (545.7) Jermaine Dye (533.1) Jorge Cantu (527.1) AJ Burnett (504.8) Xavier Nady (488.4) Jimmy Rollins (465.1) Ryan Doumit (458.8) Felix Hernandez (446.5) Jamie Moyer (390.8) Aaron Harang (337.2) Francisco Cordero (195.5) Dan Wheeler (151.5) Jorge Posada (147) Non-Exempt Point Total: 7006.4 Exempt Players: Nate McLouth Dan Uggla Jeremy Hermida Alexei Casilla Corey Brown Chris Coghlan Hank Conger Kellen Kulbacki John Mayberry Beau Mills Drew Stubbs Jon Lester Kevin Slowey Shaun Marcum Joel Hanrahan Kasey Kiker Christopher Mason

Non-Exempt Players: Rafael Furcal (154.2) Non-Exempt Total: 154.2 (out of 527.3) Exempt Players: EVERYONE ELSE. ALL 33 OF THEM.

Non-Exempt: Justin Morneau (574) Adam Dunn (530.9) Placido Polanco (460.3) Torii Hunter (458.1) Derek Jeter (453.4) Adrian Beltre (443.9) Ken Griffey (394.3) Aaron Rowand (384.6) Brett Myers (380.5) Todd Wellemeyer (379.8) Joe Blanton (357.8) Barry Zito (318.8) Victor Martinez (227.0) JJ Putz (117.5) Mike Gonzalez (90.2) Non-Exempt Point Total: 5566.9 Exempt Players: Joey Votto Carlos Gomez Fred Lewis Pablo Sandoval Nate Schierholz Yonder Alonso Wes Hodges Angel Villalona Armando Galarraga Nick Blackburn Jonathan Sanchez Brian Wilson Anibal Sanchez Alex Hinshaw Michael Bowden Madison Bumgarner Trevor Cahill Chase Wright

Non- Exempt: Carlos Beltran (614.0) Brad Hawpe (437.8) Jake Peavy (405.5) David Ortiz (395) Francisco Rodriguez (234) Jose Valverde (209.8) Brian Fuentes (197.2) Non-Exempt Point Total: 2493.3 (out of 2283) Exempt Players: Josh Hamilton Geo Soto Ian Kinsler Stephen Drew Ryan Zimmerman Josh Willingham Christopher Marrero Colby Rasmus Jemile Weeks Buster Posey (when added) Matt Garza Fausto Carmona Luke Hochevar Josh Johnson Max Scherzer Jeremy Jeffress Brian Matusz Jake McGee

For the record, I made an offer to Tim on Dec 6th, and jiddy on Nov 26th, and have heard no reply on either.

This is what I love about basketball, and the difference between it and football. This was a good loss for Tennessee today. On the road, and getting beat by a team who has no business beating you, because you cannot shoot worth a flip and you cannot stop one player, while overranked greatly is a god loss, imo. Pearl will be able to use this one to teach. Of course, if Prince is out Tuesday night as well, he might have another loss to back up his points, and I'm not so sure I'd like back to back "good losses".

According to Auburn's Rivals site, Will Muschamp will be named head coach on Friday. According to Tennessee's Rivals site, former OC Dave Clawson is the new head coach at Bowling Green.