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nolanwood

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Everything posted by nolanwood

  1. nolanwood
    100% agreed with this 100% disagree with the idea of trading Schwarber.
  2. nolanwood
    My apologies for not referencing his fWAR initially - I apparently made this more complicated than it needs to be. I'm not asking you to view them interchangeably, I'm merely making a statement of his value using his rWAR...so put on that hat. Take a gander through this list, and let me know where Lackey's value ranks (vs his peers) among his previous 6 complete seasons: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&page=2_30
  3. nolanwood
    i'm thinking you're looking at the wrong WAR (especially for a guy savvy enough to be concerned with his peripherals) also, that wouldn't be what translates into "he has to be worth like a shade over 2 wins per season." what translates into that is the fact that he's making $16M a year and that means he needs to meet or exceed around 2-2.3 WAR per season. A "wrong" WAR? Ha! "As a result of the differences listed above, rWAR values typically come in lower than fWAR values, meaning a 6 rWAR is more impressive than 6 fWAR. But it’s worth noting that the two systems are more alike than they are different, and that their different calculations should be viewed as a feature, not a bug." Back to my original statement, it translates into the fact that he has performed at 2 wins above replacement level in two of his previous 6 seasons. Right? fWAR is more peripheral (FIP) based. rWAR/bWAR is more outcome based (so a rWAR/bWAR total would be inflated by a good ERA even if it was achieved by outperforming peripherals). the wins i was referring to were fWAR...so even going by what you posted (the part in bold), that would make the rWAR threshold lower. I know exactly what the difference between them is. I stated rWAR, and now I'll spell it out. 2 of his last 6 seasons, according to his rWAR, were above average. He's by no means a lock to be average...not even taking into consideration his age.
  4. nolanwood
    i'm thinking you're looking at the wrong WAR (especially for a guy savvy enough to be concerned with his peripherals) also, that wouldn't be what translates into "he has to be worth like a shade over 2 wins per season." what translates into that is the fact that he's making $16M a year and that means he needs to meet or exceed around 2-2.3 WAR per season. A "wrong" WAR? Straight from Fangraphs: "As a result of the differences listed above, rWAR values typically come in lower than fWAR values, meaning a 6 rWAR is more impressive than 6 fWAR. But it’s worth noting that the two systems are more alike than they are different, and that their different calculations should be viewed as a feature, not a bug." Back to my original statement, it translates into the fact that he has performed at 2 wins above replacement level in two of his previous 6 seasons. Right? Which is AVERAGE.
  5. nolanwood
    in a vacuum how could you not love it? it's almost guaranteed neutral value with some potential for solid surplus plus very short term commitment. it's outside said vacuum that you can find reasons to not like it, IMO How does one of the loyal knights of the [expletive] Pitchers table call this almost guaranteed neutral value. the fact that he has to be worth like a shade over 2 wins per season and pretty much always does that and it's only 2 years we have to worry about. i also like that his velo has been consistent for like 8 years (and, as mentioned earlier, is actually up a tick in that span). 2 Seasons above 2 WAR in his last 6 seasons, one in which he significantly outperformed his peripherals. Not sure how that translates to "he has to be worth like a shade over 2 wins per season".
  6. nolanwood
    I trust Theo/Jed, but Lackey for 17mil/year puzzles me. I'm really curious how the remainder of our $$ will be allocated, too.
  7. nolanwood
    Bruce Miles ‏@BruceMiles2112 18m18 minutes ago Theo described initial dialogue with Samardzija as tasting great and being less filling. #Cubs
  8. nolanwood
    You think it's more of a 5-10 year big picture type move? No, genius, I think it's a [expletive] move. No reason to get racist. I don't think it would be particularly exciting, but if he's a secondary pitching addition, then it would absolutely be the type of move made by a team looking to capitalize on the next two years. You don't sign such a player for any other reason than to hope for near term success. I don't understand why you sign him at all. Personal bias could be clouding my judgement, but I want absolutely nothing to do with Lackey.
  9. nolanwood
    You think it's more of a 5-10 year big picture type move? No, genius, I think it's a [expletive] move.
  10. nolanwood
    Signing a 37-39 year old Lackey doesn't sound remotely close to the type of move made by a team looking to capitalize on the next two years.
  11. nolanwood
    Cubs sign Price and Heyward? There must be another ticket price increase coming tomorrow. No kidding! I predict they sign neither. I don't see them shelling out any 9-figure contracts this offseason.
  12. nolanwood
    We've got to be closing in on a postseason record for hitting balls directly to players.
  13. nolanwood
    i looked for [expletive] and giggles. according to wiki, he did infact grow up in new york Interesting. Cuzzi grew up in STL, too...and we all know what his strike zone looked like in that first game at Busch.
  14. nolanwood
    Russell will undergo hamstring tests tomorrow...is the word.
  15. nolanwood
    Haren blows so hard. Why are they still trotting him out there? 4 runs in 3 innings to arguably the worst team in MLB the previous month.
  16. nolanwood
    :good: Thank you for providing a voice of reason. :)
  17. nolanwood
    THIS.
  18. nolanwood
    That lineup (minus Baez) is striking fear in no one at present It has at points in the season, though. I don't think anyone expected them to in their first season in MLB.
  19. nolanwood
    I don't see much happening, unless we can find a partner willing to take quantity over quality. We really need a 5th starter, but to acquire the type of player they are targeting it would likely take Baez. They're not going to give up Baez when there is an equally glaring hole in the middle infield via Castro.
  20. nolanwood
    I wonder if the Yankees/Kimbrel connection was from the Mateo chatter, or if it's something new and we aren't working on a package with him in it?
  21. nolanwood
    Castro is IN the lineup, though...
  22. nolanwood
    This.
  23. nolanwood
    Makes you wonder if they'll even be able to dump him, given the headlines now read "aggressively shopping" him.
  24. nolanwood
    The media hasn't helped his image at all, either. Otherwise, I think there would be a handful of teams willing to take a flier on him...especially being so young and only one year removed from having a solid season.
  25. nolanwood
    this is impossibly dense; the hypothetical with Price added would make it a virtual certainty, and even still, i'll eat a lemon if they miss the playoffs Dense? You have no clue whether the Dodgers (currently .5 game ahead of the Giants) make the postseason, and neither do I. What we DO know is that it is a 2 month rental until proven otherwise. Price could break his neck and your point is moot. I'll gladly give you something else to eat if they don't though. You know what IS dense? Arguing that it is a FACT that the Dodgers would make the postseason, when the only fact right now is it would be a 2 month rental.
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