bukie

It's a very Gene Keady vibe, but with better hair.

Even Illinois got a vote in the AP poll this week.

Castellanos now with more HR at Great American Ball Park this season than Joey Votto.

Always fun when a team tries to CONCACAF in the world cup.

That's about what I'd expect for a Zardes USMNT goal.

In terms of the actual quality of teams, this may have been the worst bracket ever. Going by KP rankings, the committee took both #76 Temple and #78 St. John's, and left out #30 Texas and #33 NC State. And it's not like they looked at NET rankings that closely either, since both those and Arizona State were significantly higher than some unselected teams. Also, the committee underseeded MSU, overseeded most of the 4s and underseeded most of the 5s, such that the gap between 4-13 and 5-12 are about the same, and none of the matchups are that close statistically. The only statistically close first round matchup that could be considered an upset would be St. Mary's and Villanova, as those teams are actually close statistically. Cincy-Iowa and Nevada-Florida are basically dead heats as well. However, the gap between the top 8 and everyone else is still pretty stark, and the committee made the top 8 all the 1 and 2 seeds, so they could end up looking good purely by accident.

Also, Arizona State makes the bracket likely solely because of their non conference wins vs Kansas and Mississippi State. Two Q4 losses and an overall weak profile otherwise.

In total I ended up missing 3 teams since I neglected to seed Utah State despite them winning the MWC. That's what I get for rushing things after midnight on a Saturday. Other than that, only big miss was Kansas State's seed, which I personally think is way high. Everything else was at least within 2 spots. Overall, not a good bracket year for me, though, even getting Belmont right. I'm still super annoyed that St. John's is in this bracket. It's insane. I guess that 5-7 record against Q1 meant everything.

TCU and NC State did not make it.

Bleh, BOTH Arizona State and St. John's are in.

Things only I care about...Abilene Christian is hugely overseeded.

Ohio State an 11.

Just half the bracket revealed so far, already MSu, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota and Iowa in a bracket.

Ole miss an 8 seed, Iowa a 10.

MSU gets a 2 in the East...interesting. Belmont makes the tourney!

I screwed up and inadvertently omitted Ole Miss from the curve, but it is what it is at this point. They should be on the 10 seed line, and every team behind them pushed down 1.

Some quick thoughts before the selection: - I think the top 8 seeds (1 and 2 seeds) are as strong as they've ever been this year, and there's a sizable gap between those 8 teams (Duke/UNC/Virginia/Gonzaga/Tennessee/Kentucky/MSU/Michigan) and everyone else. - I think the bottom of the at large pool is really bad this year, and I almost feel like the high NET teams like UNC Greensboro and Furman should get bids before Indiana and Temple, but I don't think it'll happen. - Texas is still on brackets as a .500 team, but a .500 team has never made a bracket. - I'm curious how heavily the committee will weigh the NET rating. Related, I'm going to be unreasonably annoyed if St. John's is in the bracket with a NET of 74, and Furman isn't in the bracket with a NET of 37.

MSU, 3 wins vs Michigan, 0 wins vs Indiana or Illinois.

Michigan-MSU tied with a minute to play, because of course it is. I'm not sure how to handle it if Michigan wins, but I'd probably just swap them.

Cincinnati wins the American. I'll swap them and Louisville. Updated bracket, with only one game still going on: Opening round - Dayton - March 19 65. Abilene Christian (Southland) 66. Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) 42. Belmont 43. Lipscomb - March 20 67. North Dakota State (Summit) 68. UNC Central (MEAC) 44. Temple 45. Indiana East Regional - Washington DC - Columbia, SC (Mar 22/24) 1 (1). Duke (ACC) 16 (67/68). North Dakota State (Summit)/UNC Central (MEAC) (Dayton 2) 8 (32). Florida 9 (33). Minnesota - San Jose, CA (Mar 22/24) 4 (16). Wisconsin 13 (51). UC Irvine (Big West) 5 (18). Buffalo (MAC) 12 (49). Oregon (Pac 12) - Des Moines, IA (Mar 21/23) 2 (8). Kentucky 15 (59). Northern Kentucky (Horizon) 7 (25). Kansas State 10 (38). NC State - Tulsa, OK (Mar 22/24) 3 (9). Houston 14 (57). Vermont (America East) 6 (24). Wofford (SoCon) 11 (41). Syracuse West Regional - Anaheim, CA - Salt Lake City, UT (Mar 21/23) 1 (2). Gonzaga 16 (65/66) Abilene Christian (Southland)/Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) (Dayton 1) 8 (29). Iowa 9 (34). Baylor - San Jose, CA (Mar 22/24) 4 (15). Florida State 13 (53). St. Louis (A-10) 5 (19). Villanova 12 (48). New Mexico State (WAC) - Jacksonville, FL (Mar 21/23) 2 (7). Tennessee 15 (60). Colgate (Patriot) 7 (26). Maryland 10 (40). TCU - Des Moines, IA (Mar 21/23) 3 (11). Kansas 14 (55). Northeastern (CAA) 6 (23). Cincinnati (AAC) 11 (42/43). Belmont/Lipscomb (Dayton 1) South Regional - Louisville, KY - Columbia, SC (Mar 22/24) 1 (3). Virginia 16 (64). Prairie View (SWAC) 8 (31). UCF 9 (35). Washington - Hartford, CT (Mar 21/23) 4 (13). Purdue 13 (52). Old Dominion (CUSA) 5 (20). Marquette 12 (50). Liberty (ASun) - Columbus, OH (Mar 22/24) 2 (6). Michigan 15 (61). Bradley (MVC) 7 (27). Louisville 10 (39). Oklahoma - Tulsa, OK (Mar 22/24) 3 (10). LSU 14 (56). Sun Belt champ (Georgia State) 6 (21). Iowa State (Big 12) 11(44/45). Temple/Indiana (Dayton 2) Midwest Regional - Kansas City, MO - Columbus, OH (Mar 22/24) 1 (4). Michigan State (B1G) 16 (63). Iona (MAAC) 8 (30). VCU 9 (36). Seton Hall - Hartford, CT (Mar 21/23) 4 (14). Auburn (SEC) 13 (54). Yale (Ivy) 5 (17). Virginia Tech 12 (47). Murray State (OVC) - Jacksonville, FL (Mar 21/23) 2 (5). North Carolina 15 (62). Gardner-Webb (Big South) 7 (28), Nevada 10 (37). Ohio State - Salt Lake City, UT (Mar 21/23) 3 (12). Texas Tech 14 (58). Montana (Big Sky) 6 (22). Mississippi State 11 (46). St. Mary's (WCC)

Polls are meaningless, they are 4-10 in Q1, they won at Cincinnati and Creighton (another bubble team), the last 10 doesn't mean anything, and the B1G is good enough that everyone had 12+ Q1 games. Only one bad loss (Illinois). How does 4-10 in Q1 games compare to your other 10 seeds? Oklahoma 4-10 TCU 3-9 NC State 3-9

Polls are meaningless, they are 4-10 in Q1, they won at Cincinnati and Creighton (another bubble team), the last 10 doesn't mean anything, and the B1G is good enough that everyone had 12+ Q1 games. Only one bad loss (Illinois).

Assuming Georgia State and MSU win this afternoon, here is my bracket: Opening round - Dayton - March 19 65. Abilene Christian (Southland) 66. Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) 42. Belmont 43. Lipscomb - March 20 67. North Dakota State (Summit) 68. UNC Central (MEAC) 44. Temple 45. Indiana East Regional - Washington DC - Columbia, SC (Mar 22/24) 1 (1). Duke (ACC) 16 (67/68). North Dakota State (Summit)/UNC Central (MEAC) (Dayton 2) 8 (32). Florida 9 (33). Minnesota - San Jose, CA (Mar 22/24) 4 (16). Wisconsin 13 (51). UC Irvine (Big West) 5 (18). Buffalo 12 (49). Oregon (Pac 12) - Des Moines, IA (Mar 21/23) 2 (8). Kentucky 15 (59). Northern Kentucky (Horizon) 7 (25). Kansas State 10 (38). NC State - Tulsa, OK (Mar 22/24) 3 (9). Houston 14 (57). Vermont (America East) 6 (24). Wofford 11 (41). Syracuse West Regional - Anaheim, CA - Salt Lake City, UT (Mar 21/23) 1 (2). Gonzaga 16 (65/66) Abilene Christian (Southland)/Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) (Dayton 1) 8 (29). Iowa 9 (34). Baylor - San Jose, CA (Mar 22/24) 4 (15). Florida State 13 (53). St. Louis (A-10) 5 (19). Villanova 12 (48). New Mexico State (WAC) - Jacksonville, FL (Mar 21/23) 2 (7). Tennessee 15 (60). Colgate (Patriot) 7 (26). Maryland 10 (40). TCU - Des Moines, IA (Mar 21/23) 3 (11). Kansas 14 (55). Northeastern (CAA) 6 (23). Louisville 11 (42/43). Belmont/Lipscomb (Dayton 1) South Regional - Louisville, KY - Columbia, SC (Mar 22/24) 1 (3). Virginia 16 (64). Prairie View (SWAC) 8 (31). UCF 9 (35). Washington - Hartford, CT (Mar 21/23) 4 (13). Purdue 13 (52). Old Dominion (CUSA) 5 (20). Marquette 12 (50). Liberty (ASun) - Columbus, OH (Mar 22/24) 2 (6). Michigan 15 (61). Bradley (MVC) 7 (27). Cincinnati 10 (39). Oklahoma - Tulsa, OK (Mar 22/24) 3 (10). LSU 14 (56). Sun Belt champ (Georgia State) 6 (21). Iowa State 11(44/45). Temple/Indiana (Dayton 2) Midwest Regional - Kansas City, MO - Columbus, OH (Mar 22/24) 1 (4). Michigan State (B1G) 16 (63). Iona (MAAC) 8 (30). VCU 9 (36). Seton Hall - Hartford, CT (Mar 21/23) 4 (14). Auburn 13 (54). Yale (Ivy) 5 (17). Virginia Tech 12 (47). Murray State (OVC) - Jacksonville, FL (Mar 21/23) 2 (5). North Carolina 15 (62). Gardner-Webb (Big South) 7 (28), Nevada 10 (37). Ohio State - Salt Lake City, UT (Mar 21/23) 3 (12). Texas Tech 14 (58). Montana (Big Sky) 6 (22). Mississippi State 11 (46). St. Mary's (WCC)

Yale wins the Ivy as expected. St. Louis wins the A10 as expected. Auburn beats Tennessee to win the SEC, which boosts them a couple spots In the Sun Belt, Georgia State is up about 10 with 15 to go. AAC just starting Big Ten starting soon, I'd say the winner of that game gets #4, loser gets #6 with UNC between them.

So, S-Curve in full: 1. Duke (ACC) 2. Gonzaga 3. Virginia 4. UNC 5. Michigan State (B1G) 6. Michigan 7. Tennessee (SEC) 8. Kentucky 9. Houston 10. LSU 11. Kansas 12. Texas Tech 13. Purdue 14. Florida State 15. Wisconsin 16. Auburn 17. Virginia Tech 18. Buffalo 19. Villanova 20. Marquette 21. Iowa State 22. Mississippi State 23. Louisville 24. Wofford 25. Kansas State 26. Maryland 27. Cincinnati 28, Nevada 29. Iowa 30. VCU 31. UCF 32. Florida 33. Minnesota 34. Baylor 35. Washington 36. Seton Hall 37. Ohio State 38. NC State 39. Oklahoma 40. TCU 41. Syracuse 42. Belmont 43. Lipscomb 44. Temple 45. Indiana 46. St. Mary's (WCC) 47. Murray State (OVC) 48. New Mexico State (WAC) 49. Oregon (Pac 12) 50. Liberty (ASun) 51. Big West champ (UC Irvine) 52. Old Dominion (CUSA) 53. A-10 winner (Saint Louis?) 54. Ivy winner (Yale) 55. Northeastern (CAA) 56. Sun Belt champ (Georgia State) 57. Vermont (America East) 58. Montana (Big Sky) 59. Northern Kentucky (Horizon) 60. Colgate (Patriot) 61. Bradley (MVC) 62. Gardner-Webb (Big South) 63. Iona (MAAC) 64. Prairie View (SWAC) 65. Abilene Christian (Southland) 66. Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) 67. North Dakota State (Summit) 68. UNC Central (MEAC) I'll put it into a bracket tomorrow when possible.