bukie

You can pretty much split any statistic and use a portion of it to prove anything. I just found it odd that the argument was essentially "Howry minus his 5 worst starts isn't that bad, and Wuertz can't get AAA hitters out if you don't include the appearances where he did." Plainly broken down, for this year, the difference between Howry and Wuertz has been that they have both been below average relievers, except one lets a lot more guys on base, and the other gives up a lot more XBHs. The Cubs manager, given the choice, has shown time and again that he prefers the latter to the former (see: Hill, Rich). So, unless Wuertz can magically stop allowing so many guys to reach base, Lou will most likely stick with Howry.

Those numbers are absolutely atrocious given that you've removed his worst 5 outings. If you take all of the other relievers in the league that have 30+ outings this year, and you remove their 5 worst appearances, those numbers would probably rank in the bottom 20% of the league. Many mediocre relievers would have an ERA in the low 2s if you removed their 5 worst appearances. If you removed Wuertz's 5 worst outings this year, his line is: 35.2IP, 4 ER, 1.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 23/12 K/BB, far superior to Howry's, other than he's walking a few more people. Even if you only removed two of his outings instead of five, his numbers are: 36.2 IP, 8 ER, 1.99 ERA, 24/14 K/BB. We already applied that to Wuertz when we ignored the fact that he can't get out AAA hitters since his demotion. That was the point. Which he actually did a good job of last night, which made it odd that you ignored that when you posted his AAA numbers.

This is amazing to me. And the only loss by all rights shouldn't have been one.

Wuertz has been fantastic since July 30, and Howry hasn't thrown a strike since then. In the name of instant history, call up Wuertz immediately!

This definitely needed to be posted in 4 threads, and then it needed its own thread.

And his supply of maple bats. Dude needs to stop breaking bats over his knee when he's not hitting well. Also, maybe Lou shouldn't make him try to bunt when he's hitting .360.

I hear he's fun at parties.

Ben Sheets gave away the game by giving up hits and walks. If only the Brewers had converted every single offensive opportunity, had a gold glove OF in left, and the Cubs swung at those pitches outside the strikezone, the outcome of the game would have been different. The Brewers really beat themselves tonight. If I was 7"11' I could play basketball. They had 1 offensive opportunity. No extra base hits. Braun really only played that 1 ball wrong, and it still woulda been a hit had he let it drop in front of him. The Cubs being patient at the plate is not reflective of the Brewers beating themselves either. Was the sarcasm really not obvious enough? Don't make me bust out the green font. :)

Ben Sheets gave away the game by giving up hits and walks. If only the Brewers had converted every single offensive opportunity, had a gold glove OF in left, and the Cubs swung at those pitches outside the strikezone, the outcome of the game would have been different. The Brewers really beat themselves tonight.

At this point I think they're just postponing all of Hill's starts coming into the week.

What does Rich Hill have to do with anything? Because Bill James failed to predict Rich Hill would stop being able to throw strikes, his entire projection system is faulty?

I think the college he attended doesn't help his general public perception any, either. If, for example, he had been a star wideout at, say, Northwestern, and the Cubs signed him up, there'd be a lot lower risk of the public turning on him.

After last night, I decided to go with Brewers sweep.

Poor Bob Howry. Where did that 3rd most effective fastball go?

See, now this is written in just such a way where I can't tell whether you are being serious or poking fun with a classic "insider" response. :)

If Pythagorus played the games, the Cubs would have an 8 game lead in the division. Unfortunately, he's on the DL right now, so the lead is only 2.

I'm not a fan of acquiring a relief pitcher for any more than monetary assets. Fuentes for Marshall harkens back to the days of Karchner for Garland to me.

Rewatched the highlights with Brewers announcers on MLB.com. If the Brewers announcers are saying "Man, they had Fielder out if Lee hadn't cut off that ball", they had Fielder out if Lee hadn't cut off that ball.

So, who earned it tonight?

Your arguments are the kind of arguments that can be used for every game. If certain things had gone different in every game this season, the Cubs would be undefeated. Yeah, that's the kind of argument that bothers me the most, the "If every bounce had gone our way we could've won, so we beat ourselves." I get on anyone here when they make an argument like that, and I'll get on anyone else that makes the argument for another team. The Cubs clearly outplayed the Brewers tonight, both teams made mistakes, and fortunately the Cubs gave themselves just enough chances to pull one out.

- Hart was arguably out. Fielder may also have been out at home had Lee just let the throw go through. - Broken up by a good slide from Reed Johnson. Even if the throw is good, the play at first is close. - One intentionally. Fukudome and Soto also could've walked had they not swung at crap out of the zone. Goes both ways. Torres was fortunate the inning didn't end worse. - Have you seen Mike Quade? He sent Lee on a line drive single right at a shallow, hard-charging Cameron when he fielded the ball before Lee touched third. Lee is no Vince Coleman. Then, in the 9th, Fontenot has already rounded third before Kapler gets it, Soriano is waving him home, and Quade puts on the brakes. Lou and Rothschild basically delivered a HR to Branyan on a silver platter. Although, yes, you do have Ned Yost. - Hall was right there, but the throw was high. - It took a diving stop just to get a little glove on it. It was knuckling away from him as he moved towards it, as it went right off the end of Fukudome's bat. Only the best two or three fielding 2Bs in the NL get to that, and a top fielding 2B Weeks ain't. - Hall was playing on the line, as he should have been, to prevent a double. No 3B in the league makes a play on that ball. It just happened to be a weak grounder to the perfect spot. Yes, I agree that you don't want to believe the Cubs actually won this game fair and square, and the brewer fans over on brewerfan, along with the brewer announcers have clouded your perspective greatly. The only really game-breaking play was the Weeks throw, and that was at least somewhat induced by Johnson's slide.

Cubs: 6 runs scored, 10 LOB: 6/16 = 37.5% efficiency Brewers: 4 runs scored, 5 LOB: 4/9 = 44.4% efficiency 37.5% < 44.4%. Thus, the Cubs blew more chances than the Brewers, but still won. Make sense now? This is all I am trying to say. You show up here with a backhanded compliment with the caveat that you think the Brewers beat themselves, because they somehow failed to convert 100% of their chances, as if that is somehow abnormal. I respond by stating the Cubs really should've done more with the chances they had. Thus, the game shouldn't have been that close. Thankfully, they pulled it out anyway, but deserved the win. It's not that hard, really.

It was a good game. But it was one that the Cubs clearly deserved to win and earned. It was also one I wouldn't have been surprised had they blown.

You really think the Brewers beat themselves tonight, despite the Cubs having more baserunners, scoring on a lower percentage of opportunities, and failing to convert high-percentage scoring chances in five separate innings, all the while running into outs to prevent more runs? It's not being a tool about it, it's being objective about it. Being a tool about it would be thinking the Cubs somehow didn't win this game tonight, but only benefitted from the Brewers' miscues. I know you've been on in the past about how the Cubs get all the breaks, but that simply didn't happen tonight, despite the rosy beer-goggles some Brewer fans may make use of.

Some mind-bogglers by Cub coaching tonight: - Leaving Howry in to face Branyan when Branyan is (1)a dead-red fastball hitter, (2)has all of his HRs against righties, and (3) has all of his hits against righties. The Cubs did only have three well-rested lefties in the pen, though. - Sending Lee on the sharp single to shallow, hard-charging Mike Cameron in center. Sending the runner when the OF has the ball before the runner reaches third is a bad idea. - Not sending Fontenot on Lee's double in the ninth. Worked out in the end, but even Soriano could tell that Fontenot would've scored.